Actionable Items From Opening Day
1. Injuries
Keep track of these banged-up guys over the next couple of days to see if replacements will need to be rostered.
#MLB injuries from opening day:
Rosenthal (OAK) – shoulder
Donaldson (MIN) – hamstring
Senzel (CIN) – shoulder
Dozier (KC) – thumb
Barnes (LAD) – hand
S Sanchez (MIA) – shoulder— Jesse Morse, MD (@DrJesseMorse) April 2, 2021
2. Eighth hitters in the National League.
These guys see their fantasy stats, specially stolen bases, suffer because they are hitting in front of the pitcher. I examined the effect a few years back.
The hitter’s SBs increase quite a bit, especially if they are moved to the lead off spot. They go from averaging just 6 SB to 22 SB over 600 PA. Also, SB jump by 9 by moving to the 7th position.
While these aren’t great hitters, a few are being counted on to provide some stolen bases.
Name | Team | Steamer600 SB Projection |
---|---|---|
Anthony Alford | Pirates | 24 |
Garrett Hampson | Rockies | 22 |
Miguel Rojas | Marlins | 10 |
Cristian Pache | Braves | 10 |
David Bote | Cubs | 7 |
Austin Barnes | Dodgers | 7 |
Luis Urias | Brewers | 7 |
Adam Haseley | Phillies | 7 |
Justin Williams | Cardinals | 6 |
Stephen Vogt | Diamondbacks | 4 |
Tucker Barnhart | Reds | 3 |
Victor Caratini | Padres | 2 |
3. Velocity and spin rate changes
With velocity changes, it’s important to know who is up or down right now, but be careful about overreacting. Some of these pitchers are throwing in cold weather and may not be on their A-game. I combed through the Savant’s Gamefeed, here are some pitchers who stood out to me.
Name | 2021 Avg FB Velo | Change | RPM | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Hader | 98.0 | 3.5 | 209 | |
Freddy Peralta | 95.8 | 2.8 | 4 | |
Taylor Rogers | 97.1 | 2.7 | -26 | |
Kolby Allard | 93.9 | 2.4 | -44 | |
Sean Doolittle | 93.0 | 2.3 | 73 | 37F at game start |
Jose Alvarado | 99.1 | 2.2 | 81 | |
Corey Knebel | 96.4 | 2.1 | -8 | |
Madison Bumgarner | 90.3 | 1.9 | 165 | |
Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | 91.8 | 1.7 | 59 | |
Emilio Pagan | 96.2 | 1.7 | 151 | |
Dylan Bundy | 91.7 | 1.7 | 108 | |
Kyle Gibson | 93.8 | 1.6 | 99 | |
Hansel Robles | 96.8 | 1.4 | -23 | |
Daniel Bard | 98.5 | 1.4 | 116 | |
Brad Keller | 93.7 | 1.4 | -6 | 76% fastballs. Not ideal |
Kenta Maeda | 91.9 | 1.1 | 8 | |
Brandon Woodruff | 97.4 | 1.1 | -146 | |
Mark Melancon | 93.0 | 1.1 | 112 | |
Tyler Glasnow | 97.9 | 1.0 | 8 | |
Lucas Giolito | 95.0 | 1.0 | 130 | |
Taylor Clarke | 94.7 | 0.4 | -290 | |
Chad Kuhl | 93.7 | -0.2 | 370 | |
Alex Reyes | 97.2 | -0.6 | -256 | 37F at game start |
Aaron Nola | 92.0 | -0.8 | 6 | All non-fastball down over 1 mph |
Stefan Crichton | 91.4 | -0.9 | -96 | |
Matthew Boyd | 90.6 | -1.1 | -4 | Snowing |
Alec Mills | 88.7 | -1.1 | -15 | |
Archie Bradley | 92.9 | -1.3 | -1 | |
Jack Flaherty | 92.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 37F at game start |
Kevin Gausman | 93.6 | -1.5 | -36 | |
Kyle Hendricks | 85.8 | -1.6 | 62 | |
J.B. Wendelken | 92.9 | -1.7 | -41 | |
Shane Bieber | 92.2 | -1.9 | -125 | Snowing |
Alex Young | 88.5 | -1.9 | -115 | |
Hector Neris | 91.7 | -2.1 | -6 | |
Scott Alexander | 90.8 | -2.3 | -159 | |
Luis Castillo | 94.9 | -2.6 | -20 | 37F at game start |
4. Max exit velocity gainers.
A new high in Max Exit Velocity over 108 mph (explanation here) can point to a power uptick. Two hitters improved off their 2020 highs.
Name | 2020 Max EV | 2021 Max EV | Gain |
---|---|---|---|
Austin Riley | 111.1 | 112.1 | 1.0 |
Michael Brantley | 105.3 | 109.2 | 3.9 |
Brantley’s bump is pretty dramatic. He had not hit a ball that had since 2017.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Brantley had 2 EVs last night exceeding his 2020. Not sure if that means much.
And 2 more tonight…
Brantley is a good hitter. He is a student of the game, it would not surprise me if he worked out in the offseason in such a way that he would be able to increase his max EV.