Archive for Featured

Bullpen Report: July 9, 2022

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July 9, 2022

The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save).

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1074 – NFBC Key FAAB Pitchers Review

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July 8, 2022

7/7/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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PATREON

KEY FAAB PITCHERS FROM THE MAIN EVENT

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Trouble Brewing on the South Side?

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July 8, 2022
Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

After a rough stretch, Lucas Giolito is coming off of two great starts and is set for a matchup on Friday night with a Tigers team that has mostly been an offensive doormat for much of 2022. And since the mission statement here at NotBurt Inc. includes many mentions of setting ourselves up for success, clearly, now is the perfect time to question his performance going forward. Because where’s the fun without an added degree of difficulty? Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: July 8, 2022

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July 8, 2022

How was this 10 years ago?!? Am I really that old?

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Beat the Shift Podcast – FAAB Episode w/ Scott Jenstad

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July 8, 2022

The FAAB Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Jenstad

Strategy Section

  • FAAB / Waiver Wire
    • How has the waiver wire changed over the past few seasons?
      • Is it more important or less important?
    • When to enter FAAB during the week.
    • Looking at “your” team.
    • How playing with a partner helps with waiver wire pickups.
    • What to look for when picking up players?
    • What to look for when dropping players?
    • How much FAAB should you have left over at the All-Star break?
    • Does prior league bidding affect your FAAB bids?
    • Does current team FAAB amounts affect your FAAB bids?

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Podcast (beat-the-shift): Play in new window | Download

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Bullpen Report: July 8, 2022

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July 8, 2022

The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


Boxscore Bits: July 7th, 2022

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July 7, 2022
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Sorry for the lack of BB this week, some time constraints were the primary culprit, but I’m back with a few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Wednesday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Corbin Burnes MIL 7 3 0 0 0 1 10 24 0.00 0.57 0 96.8 25%
2 Shohei Ohtani LAA 7 2 1 0 0 3 10 27 0.00 0.71 1 97.8 99.5 20%
3 Corey Kluber TBR 6 3 0 0 0 0 5 22 0.00 0.50 1 88.7 13%
4 Max Fried ATL 6 5 0 0 0 1 4 23 0.00 1.00 1 94.4 94 10%
5 Luis Severino NYY 6 4 0 0 0 0 3 22 0.00 0.67 1 95.6 95.9 6%
6 Mitch White LAD 5.2 1 1 0 0 4 6 22 0.00 0.88 0 94.3 94.6 9%
7 Spenser Watkins BAL 6.2 4 1 1 0 1 3 25 1.35 0.75 1 90.7 11%
8 José Ureña COL 6.2 5 1 1 0 3 2 26 1.35 1.20 0 97.1 96.3 5%
9 José Berríos TOR 6 4 1 1 1 1 6 23 1.50 0.83 0 93.6 93.1 9%
10 James Kaprielian OAK 6 5 1 1 1 4 1 25 1.50 1.50 0 93.7 5%
11 Adrian Sampson 샘슨 CHC 5.2 4 1 1 1 0 5 20 1.59 0.71 0 92.6 92.3 7%
12 Glenn Otto TEX 5 3 2 1 0 3 5 20 1.80 1.20 0 93.1 93.5 10%
13 Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI 6.1 2 2 2 0 3 6 24 2.84 0.79 0 91.9 92.1 16%
14 Josiah Gray WSN 6 4 2 2 2 1 11 23 3.00 0.83 1 95.1 21%
15 Graham Ashcraft CIN 6 10 2 2 0 0 1 28 3.00 1.67 0 97.8 95.8 5%
16 Aaron Nola PHI 7.2 7 3 3 0 1 3 29 3.52 1.04 0 92.8 92.3 8%
17 Michael Pineda DET 5 5 2 2 1 2 2 20 3.60 1.40 1 90 5%
18 Miles Mikolas STL 6 5 3 3 2 1 4 24 4.50 1.00 0 93.3 93.3 11%
19 Joe Ryan MIN 4 5 3 2 1 2 3 19 4.50 1.75 0 90.8 7%
20 Trevor Rogers MIA 4.2 4 3 3 0 2 5 21 5.79 1.29 0 95.4 12%
21 Mitch Keller PIT 6 10 4 4 2 1 7 26 6.00 1.83 0 96 94.8 14%
22 Alex Cobb SFG 6 7 4 4 0 1 3 26 6.00 1.33 0 94.7 8%
23 Brad Keller KCR 5.2 5 4 4 1 3 3 24 6.35 1.41 1 94.9 93.3 11%
24 David Peterson NYM 3.2 4 3 3 1 5 7 19 7.36 2.45 0 93.4 92.6 13%
25 Shane Bieber CLE 5.2 7 5 5 0 3 6 27 7.94 1.76 0 91.4 15%
26 Cristian Javier HOU 5 4 5 5 3 3 7 22 9.00 1.40 0 94.2 13%
27 Lance Lynn CHW 5 6 5 5 1 2 4 23 9.00 1.60 0 92.5 91.1 12%
28 Brayan Bello BOS 4 6 4 4 0 3 2 21 9.00 2.25 0 97.2 96.8 8%
Sorted by ERA

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Predictability of Pitcher On-Base BABIP

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July 6, 2022

I’ve had a hard time figuring out Dean Kremer and couldn’t explain his low 2.48 ERA while most of his ERA estimators are in the high 4.00s. I finally got around to looking at his splits with the bases empty and those with runners on base. With the bases empty, Kremer has a .391 BABIP. Once someone gets on base, he has a .167 BABIP. Since he has a .310 overall BABIP, the discrepancy wasn’t obvious. I decided to look into the predictability of BABIP with and without runners and with BABIP-related issues and how much a difference can help predict an ERA regression.

To do the study, I look at starters (>90% games where starts) who at least threw 80 IP in season one and at least 40 IP in the next to help account for survivor bias. Just a reminder that previous studies found it takes forever for a pitcher’s normal BABIP to stabilize (2000 BIP, ~ 4 seasons of 180 IP). Read the rest of this entry »


Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – July 6th, 2022

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July 6, 2022

Transcript is available below!

1:02

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming to my chat!!
1:03

gerg: weekly skubal check in??
1:04

Paul Sporer: It’s not good. I was not concerned after the first 3 with only Texas really standing out as problematic, but the other 2 v. BOS & TOR. Felt like standard regression. Now we’re at 5 starts w/a 2.0 HR9, soaring walk rate, and big velo dip last time out v. KC. I’m not yet cutting him in most lgs (maybe a 10) but I’m benching him
1:04

Dylan: Who is to blame for the white sox
1:06

Paul Sporer: Everyone wants it to all be TLR, but that’s not really the case. Mgrs. rarely have THAT much overall impact. I do think he is a net negative for sure and the hiring NEVER made sense (unless you know the personal friendships of TLR & Reinsdorf, but certainly no baseball sense). They’ve also been ravaged by injuries which isn’t an excuse as all teams get hit, but it can be a reason for a team’s shortcomings in a given season. Kopech looks off completely right now, too. I still can’t rule them out of the Central bc of their core of talent, but they are far from the favorites
1:06

Holy Cannoli: Where do yo think Isaac Paredes’s talent stabilizes?  I know Statcast hates him.  Can he be a 25 HR .800 OPS guy?

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Bullpen Report: July 6, 2022

by
July 6, 2022

The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page.

  1. Notable Workloads: Primary closers or valuable members of a closer committee who have been deemed unavailable or likely unavailable for the current day due to recent workload.
  2. Injury News 
  3. Outlier Saves: Explanation for a non-closer earning a save during the previous day.
  4. Committee Clarity: Notes on a closer committee that clarify a pitcher’s standing in the group.
  5. Losing A Grip: Struggling closers who could be on the hot seat.

The “RosterResource” link will take you to the corresponding team’s RosterResource depth chart, which will give you a better picture of the full bullpen and results of the previous six days (pitch count, save, hold, win, loss, blown save.)

Click HERE to view the full Closer Depth Chart.

Read the rest of this entry »


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