Boxscore Bits: July 7th, 2022

Sorry for the lack of BB this week, some time constraints were the primary culprit, but I’m back with a few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Shohei Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Luis Severino, Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber (3.10 ERA/0.99 WHIP in 10 starts since 8 ER at LAA), Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Alex Cobb (ERA up, FIP down – the Alex Cobb Way!), Glenn Otto, Graham Ashcraft

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Josiah Gray – It was the full Josiah Gray Experience with the great ratios (3.00 ERA/0.83 WHIP) and strikeouts (11) while also including his signature HRs (both ER were solo shots from Kyle Schwarber). Jokes aside, he has been rolling lately which means keeping the HRs at bay. He had just a 1.0 HR/9 in six starts prior to Wednesday while the two Schwarbombs moved it to a 1.3 mark in his last seven. Honestly, if Gray can maintain a sub-10% BB rate, then even a 1.3 HR/9 is workable. He’s been at 9% in this 7-start run. He gets a nice 2-step test next week with home starts v. SEA & ATL.
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 – It turns out the Dodgers outing (2 IP/8 ER) wasn’t the beginning of the end for Kelly, but rather just an awful start in an otherwise strong season. He now has a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 9 starts since that outing, though I only got a 3.89 ERA because I sat him at Coors (7 IP/1 ER). I’m still sitting him at Coors and against the Dodgers, but otherwise he stays in the lineup including next week for his California trip to SF and SD.
• Mitch White – White enjoyed a nice spoonful of Rockie Road (shouts to Nick Pollack!), allowing just 1 hit in 5.7 IP ensuring his 4 BB didn’t cause much trouble (1 unearned run). With Buehler & Heaney out, there is a spot for White and while in the rotation, I’m rostering in all 12s and deeper and I’m open to consistently streaming him in a 10 if I’m a little light in pitching and working via the wire. He only gets one start next week (at STL) because both LA teams have Sunday July 17th off for some reason. I know the All-Star game is in LA, but is it custom for the host team to have that Sunday off? I can’t recall that as a standard practice.
• José Berríos – Berríos has taken advantage of a soft spot in the schedule with back-to-back gems v. TB and at OAK. Hey, we’ll take it! If you are still rostering Berríos, you will savor any and all good starts. There is still some cold water to throw on the two starts as he has just 9 Ks and a 7% SwStr rate while also allowing 12 H. If he can put up two more good starts in a 2-step featuring PHI and KC, then maybe we can start banking on Berríos as a consistent starter again.
• Spenser Watkins – That’s three straight gems for Watkins! Like the other Baltimore standout SPs this year, the success hasn’t come by way of strikeout dominance, but rather improved command and control which aids their hit suppression. He has just a 13% K rate on the season and 18% during this three-start run while the walk rate has been halved from 10% on the season to 5% in the trio of gems. With a trip to CHC next week, you could take a shot on Watkins in deeper formats, but there is still some major downside here.
• Adrian Sampson 샘슨 – Since his recall on June 19th, Sampson has reeled off a 3.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 24% K, and 4% BB in 20.7 IP (he had just 1 IP w/2 UER in a May 8th outing before that). The 30-year-old journeyman has his velo up 1 mph to 93.1 mph and has a solid 3-pitch mix – though he only throws the changeup 14% of the time and it hasn’t stopped a 242-point platoon split favoring lefty hitter (.755 OPS). He gets BAL/NYM at home next week and I’m open to running him out there in 15s and deeper.
• James Kaprielian – Don’t get too drunk on the 2.78 ERA over his last 4 starts as it comes with a 2% K-BB rate in 22.7 IP. He flashed solid skills at times last year en route to a 4.07 ERA in 19.3 IP and until I start to see some of those skills peeking through, I’m not racing to scoop him off the wire.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Trevor Rogers – It was still a 5.79 ERA and he didn’t finish 5 IP, buuuuttt I’m still giving him an ounce of hype because he was rolling through 4 IP before allowing the 3 ER in the fifth.
• Mitch Keller – Honestly, a 6 IP/4 ER outing with 7 Ks v. NYY is pretty good all things considered.

Duds: The worst of the day from fantasy relevant arms

• Cristian Javier – Throws 7 no-hit innings in the Bronx… gets ripped for 5 ER in 5 IP v. KC. Baseball always makes so much sense! A pitcher’s stuff differs start to start and oftentimes it’s a mystery to even the pitcher on what will work in their arsenal for a given start. This is standard issue dud; I’m not sweating it.
• Shane Bieber – Sometimes you just face a badass team like the Tigers and get rolled! Hopefully the dripping sarcasm is obvious and conveys how little I’m worried about this dud.
• Brayan Bello – It pretty much as advertised for Bello (pronounced Bay-oh) as you could see the glimpses from his fastball and changeup, but the lack of command was fully on display with plenty of inconsistency batter-to-batter, inning-to-inning. The downside is that it doesn’t scream “keep me in the rotation!” especially as Sale, Eovaldi, and Hill work their way back and I’m not even sure he’s getting a start next week. Keep him on your radar in case something more long-term opens up for him.

STREAMER THURSDAY

A look at some available arms to stream on the weekend.

It feels like a light weekend in terms of streamable arms who are widely available. Did I miss anyone you’re keyed in on for the weekend?

• Johnny Cueto v. DET on Saturday – Cueto has quietly been really solid for the White Sox with a 3.30 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 60 IP. I would still heed his SIERA and FIP (4.26 and 4.41, respectively) as a guideline for expectations going forward, but there is streamer viability here.
• Aaron Civale/Zach Plesac at KC on Friday/Sunday – Civale is trying to find his footing after an IL stint. Plesac has been great over his last 7 with a 2.14 ERA/1.02 WHIP in 42 IP. His 14% K-BB rate isn’t great because of three outings where he combined for 6 Ks, but all 7 have been quality starts. His teammates hate him though as he’s just 1-2 during the run!
• Tyler Wells/Dean Kremer v. LAA on Friday/Saturday – Despite 2 of the best players in baseball, the Angels are 25th in wRC+ against righties since May 1st with an MLB-high 28% K rate (3 pts higher than ATL). Neither Wells nor Kremer have major K rates, but maybe this Angels lineup gives ‘em a boost.
• Brady Singer v. CLE on Friday – Singer has come back to earth in a big way lately. He was brilliant in his first three starts before HOU snapped him back to reality (5 IP/7 ER – 4 of ‘em in the 5th inning) and since then he’s been more of a standard streamer (4.45 ERA/1.34 WHIP in 5 starts). Keep your strikeout expectations tempered here as CLE has the lowest K rate against righties on the year at just 17%.
• Madison Bumgarner v. COL on Saturday – It’s Colorado on the road!