Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – July 6th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming to my chat!!

gerg: weekly skubal check in??

Paul Sporer: It’s not good. I was not concerned after the first 3 with only Texas really standing out as problematic, but the other 2 v. BOS & TOR. Felt like standard regression. Now we’re at 5 starts w/a 2.0 HR9, soaring walk rate, and big velo dip last time out v. KC. I’m not yet cutting him in most lgs (maybe a 10) but I’m benching him

Dylan: Who is to blame for the white sox

Paul Sporer: Everyone wants it to all be TLR, but that’s not really the case. Mgrs. rarely have THAT much overall impact. I do think he is a net negative for sure and the hiring NEVER made sense (unless you know the personal friendships of TLR & Reinsdorf, but certainly no baseball sense). They’ve also been ravaged by injuries which isn’t an excuse as all teams get hit, but it can be a reason for a team’s shortcomings in a given season. Kopech looks off completely right now, too. I still can’t rule them out of the Central bc of their core of talent, but they are far from the favorites

Holy Cannoli: Where do yo think Isaac Paredes’s talent stabilizes?  I know Statcast hates him.  Can he be a 25 HR .800 OPS guy?

Paul Sporer: He caaaannn, but I’m not entirely sure how to process him, either. He has nice plate skills to go with the big time power but how real is the power?! I’m fine riding the wave right now, but monitor him so you don’t get holding well beyond the drop point and look up only to see a 75 PA run of .100 AVG and 1 HR

Go Sawx: Outlook on Brayan Bello?

Paul Sporer: I’m excited for Bello – pronounced Bay-Oh – debuting later today. Kind of the standard upside pitching prospect with premium stuff and no real command of it. The richness of that stuff make him worth chasing immediately if it looks like he will get a multi-start opportunity

Insert Witty Name Here: In a shallow 8 team OBp league that starts four OF. I have Yordan, Luis Robert, Schwarber, Buxton, and Seyia.  Any of them worth offering for a SP like Giolito?

Paul Sporer: Suzuki and maybe Schwarber. Giolito looks sharp in his last two and seems to be getting more consistent command of his stuff going again

Insert Witty Name Here: Shallow 8 team OBP league, can you please rank for 1B Hoskins, Abreu, and Schwarber?

Paul Sporer: In reverse order of the listing

bart: Patino vs Lorenzen in a 12?

Paul Sporer: take the upside shot on Patiño, I think we kinda know what’s up with Lorenzen

Stoner’s Pot Palace: Is Cody Bellinger droppable in 12 team mixed leagues? I’m getting Kyle Lewis off the IL soon, could I drop Cody or find someone else (like McMahon) to drop?

Paul Sporer: While he is pacing for a 20/20 season, I’m OK cutting given the horrendous .205 AVG and .265 OBP so far

Guest: Would you trade Wander Franco for Adolis Garcia in a standard 5×5 redraft league?

Paul Sporer: if you need the pwr/spd impact, yes

Insert Witty Name Here: When deGrom comes back, who gets cut? Strider or Cortes?

Paul Sporer: I guess Strider bc his second half IP could be limited

SamskiNYC: What’s up, Paul? Why do I still have faith in Josh Lowe? How can I stop?

Paul Sporer: He only has 123 career PA, we should all still have faith. I’m nowhere near quitting him!

Kevin: Max Kepler’s statcast numbers continue to be outstanding but he continues to underperform. Is this just who he is?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I think so. We wanted more GB from him to tap into the potential BABIP upside but the 6 pt GB jump hasn’t really driven much in BABIP with just a .250 mark (although that is a 25-pt jump from last year). I think we just accept him for the 20-something HR guy he is with some potential SBs and better in OBP lgs

Bruce in 2023: Looking to add a Hot Schoop. Drop Espinal, ARosario, LGarcia(Nats). Deep 12 Team daily roto

Paul Sporer: Probably Espinal. He doesn’t have much category juice especially for a 12er

Big Tuna: What do you make of Darick Hall? First the power explosion and now a three hit game. Can his bat play consistently at this level?

Paul Sporer: We won’t really know for a while. He has hit the ground running nicely but there is definitely some swing-and-miss in his game and I’ll be interested to see how Hall adjusts when the league gets a real book on him

Guest: Out of Christian Walker, Corey Seager, Jeremy Pena, and Jared Walsh, I can play three on a day-to-day basis.  Which of the four should I be sitting?

Paul Sporer: Probably Jared Walsh in that group

Steve: Franimal heatin up? Time to grab him?

Paul Sporer: I was just checking on this after his HR today. Now has 4 HR in 57 PA since returning from the IL. Only a .281 OBP in that time along with a 40% K rate, so I’m not sure he’s back back just yet.

Vegetables in a storm: What do you make of Vaughns lack of power?  He has elite contact skills but doesn’t pull the ball very much.  Is it an approach or bat speed issue?

Paul Sporer: Just his 2nd year. I think it’s mostly the development process. He has 60-grade HR power upside   but is at more of a 45-50 right now. I think sometimes we get a bit impatient with developing players. He’s pacing for a .295 AVG, 19 HR, 96 RBI, and 72 R. That’s great for what he cost at the draft table.

Jim Leyland Palmer: Who do you prefer for the rest of this season: Kyle Wright or Joe Ryan (5×5 cats)?

Paul Sporer: I have them in the same tier and pretty close. I lean Wright. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-starting-pitcher-ra…

Freshbasil: I really want believe Josh Lowe is just going to turn it on one day, but should I drop him for Oliveras since he just popped up on my Waiver Wire?

Paul Sporer: I’m totally fine with that

Yoan Moncada: Am I a lost cause this season?

Paul Sporer: It is roughhhh. I don’t have much hope. Ks up, BB waayyy down, not hitting the ball nearly as well. There just isn’t much to go off. If he didn’t have the name value, he’d be on a lot more wires.

Freshbasil: Imagine a world where the dodgers never traded Yordan or O’Neil Cruz.

Paul Sporer: For Josh Fields and Tony Watson!

Paul Sporer: That just speaks to their insane depth!

punky brewster: Is Moreno anything but taking up space in a keeper league (2 catchers, 10 teams)? He has stood in for me with Stephenson on the IL, but now he’s getting ready to come back I gotta move someone–would love if they would just option him at this point for a future season (sorry Gabriel!)

Paul Sporer: I mean he is hitting .280 so it’s not nothing, though obviously without any power. He has started 13 of 25 gms since getting called up so he’s basically a 50/50 player which isn’t too bad all things considered.

kcc26: As a fantasy player and a Tigers fan, how are you feeling about Riley Greene’s debut so far?

Paul Sporer: The Catalyst, baby!!! I’m really excited about him!

HBP: Can I start believing in Kirilloff now?

Paul Sporer: It’s easy to believe in his skills. The health of that wrist is the only major concern, IMO. But when healthy, I’m fully in!

jackal: Can Braxton Garrett be a quality big league starter?

Paul Sporer: Definitely! He has a swing-and-miss slider and a deep enough arsenal to turn over the lineup 2x and maybe even push into the 3rd time through when he’s really on. I love what Miami has done w/their pitching development, too. Their park helps, but it’s not just guys using the park, they are developing really talented arms

John: If the season started today, what would Berrios look like stat-wise for the next 80 games? It’s crazy how the results have been compared to the skillset.  We all know he is inconsistent, but you have to think his second half is going to be way better than the first.

Paul Sporer: The major drop in Ks and a dip in his already-light SwStr would definitely drop his outlook for me. I’d say like a 4.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP kind of projection w/this Berrios.

MikeD: What is the probability that David Robertson gets dealt, and will he just be a setup reliever on his new team?

Paul Sporer: Likelihood of trade should be near-100%. There is NO reason for the Cubs to keep a 37 yr old D Rob. As for guessing his new role, that’s a fool’s errand. I think we just have to utilize these bad team closers for as long as we can and plan around their potential departure from a closer role by speculating in other bullpens instead of trying to anticipate what their future will be. Felix Bautista blew his shot to get a slice of the SVs pie before Jorge Lopez gets traded by blowing up last night, but he should still get the job when Lopez is gone so he is someone I’d spec on while holding D Rob as a plan to counter D Rob’s potential move into a setup role

jackal: Do you think Taijuan Walker is reaching a new level, or just a hot streak?

Paul Sporer: We’ve seen the Ks soar in his last 6 with a 27% K rate aiding his 2.84 ERA/1.00 WHIP. It’s still the same 10% SwStr so I’m not sure he’ll hold the Ks up this high going forward, but I do believe there is some viability to the run if he can keep the ball in the yard. A surge in splitter usage has helped him with an 8 pt. jump in GB rate which has in turn helped his ugly HR issue (1.5 HR/9, 14% HR/FB last yr). I’m starting him pretty consistently across most formats right now

Nick: Need to drop one of Brad Hand and Seranthony Dominguez to activate Liam Hendriks. You have any strong take on whether either will run away with it or if it stays as a committee, which is likely to get more opportunities?

Paul Sporer: I do not have a strong read, but lean toward Dominguez

cortezthakillah: Should I move Eloy for Carlos Rodon?  Keeper league

Paul Sporer: If you need the pitching, I have no issues w/this

Homer: Is Reese Olson underrated?  Having a really nice year so far.

Paul Sporer: I wrote him up a while back https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/boxscore-bits-may-24th-2022/ — he has been insane at AA with a 38% K rate and 7% BB rate in 66 IP. I wonder when he will get moved up to AAA (though his last 2 starts were pretty blah). I’m keeping an eye on him in case he gets a call this year.

correa: Paul – Should I accept an offer of Correa for my Baez and D. Carlson? Keep 22 league… Correa just feels so… meh. Is there further upside?

Paul Sporer: It’s not a bad offer. I get what you’re saying about Correa bc while he has a 134 wRC+, it hasn’t come with much category juice. There’s more pwr than this and the counting categories will go up when the pwr shows up, too. I do love Carlson, but this isn’t a bad deal and Correa does have some upside that isn’t a stretch to reach at all

Homer: Mahle just went on the shelf with a shoulder injury…that came out of nowhere, or did I miss something?

Paul Sporer: That’s how it goes with pitchers and why I stress how much of a myth the idea of a healthy pitcher is. It’s a trite phrase I know, but you’re healthy til you’re not and as a pitcher, that’s always a pitch away. There wasn’t any major velo drop or even all that much of a performance drop, so yeah it’s kinda outta nowhere unfortunately

Dave: Totally with you on Riley Greene, but what do you make of Tork’s struggles so far?

Paul Sporer: Feel like standard rookie struggles. He isn’t getting to his power consistently. That’s probably the one major glaring issue, but everything else seems pretty standard. Plate skills are fine. This anecdotal from watching, but he absolutely looks the part of a big leaguer. I still think we see a summer surge at some point, but I fully understand the 10 and 12 tm cuts and the 15 tm consideration of a cut

Mystical: If you’re giving up on one of the three following prospects in a 12 team roto dynasty who is it: Brujan, Kelenic, Adell.

Paul Sporer: It might be my favorite of the bunch: Brujan 🙁 Definitely leaving the door cracked as it’s a whopping 170 PA, but there just hasn’t been anything to suggest he can handle MLB pitching. He looks overmatched. At 24 yrs old, that’s hardly a death knell and he can overcome, but b/w those 3, it’s Brujan

Clemson: Is Jorge Lopez really a lock to get traded? Doesn’t he have 3 years of control left after this season for an up and coming Orioles team?

Paul Sporer: He should be. There is no reason to hold a 29 yr old journeyman RP, even with team control

Paul Sporer: RP is the most volatile class on the diamond. You can find the next Lopez at the same store you found this one – the waiver wire. Unless the offers are literally nothing, there is no good reason to keep Lopez around in Baltimore. As a big OOTP dork, I’ve seen how fruitful the waiver wire is for RPs and why teams can build a pen in-season via the wire. I’ll take a 40 grade prospect with some youth (under 23 or so) for a 29-yr old spike year RP all day!

Kevin: Lance Lynn getting roughed up as we speak. Only 1 good start in 5 tries since coming off the IL. Time to worry?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’ve got some concern. I was hoping he could build off the gem v. SF. Let’s see how this one finishes as he seems to be getting nickel and dimed a bit with a 2B and some 1Bs (though also 2 BB). Another dud here would put him on the 10-team chopping block and possibly for 12s, as well, depending who you’ve got as a replacement

Tony LaRussa: Am I fired yet? Can I be any worse? What more can I do to get the ace?

Paul Sporer: … all my answers to this are mean, I’ll behave

Paul Sporer: I think they might just let this ship sink w/him aboard

Sean: How do you choose the questions to answer in these chats

Paul Sporer: It’s just kind of a feel-type thing. I bounce around a bit since the queue can get unruly and I don’t want to spend time on just the first 10 mins of Qs. But I do bounce around, so just bc I answer something asked later doesn’t mean a previous Q will go unanswered.

Guest: Mahle just hit the IL; drop him for T. Wells or D. Peterson?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Peterson. More bankable skillset

Kevin: Melendez, Rutschman, or William Contreras ROS?

Paul Sporer: think I’d rank it Adley, Melendez, Wm. Contreras

Mike: Why don’t you have more faith in Framber Valdez than where you’ve ranked him? Is he worth building around in dynasty?

Paul Sporer: He’s in the Must Start tier! That seems pretty confident. I have him 43rd and I stand by that. He’s riding hot right now with his ERA well below his indicators which can definitely happen with an extreme groundballer is popping off, but I don’t think this is a level change. He’s still a mid-3.00s ERA kinda guy, which is great and someone you’re always starting. I wouldn’t want to build a dynasty around any pitcher, but even as a staff ace, I’d want someone a bit more impactful with his strikeouts. Framber is a great #2 or #3, but not an ideal fantasy ace.

Chillin like a Villar-in: AL Only, OBP – are you picking up Villar? Other options are Rengifo, Ramon Urias, etc. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I prefer Urias b/w the 3, but with Villar leading off right now, I don’t haaate getting him espec. if you need SBs

Lorenzen: Any of these streamers are worth holding in a deep league: Lorenzen, Kremer, Jordan Lyles, Bundy – or are they all fungible?

Paul Sporer: All fungy. Kremer and Lorenzen the most intriguing of the bunch for me

J India: Am I hurt? Expect me to turn it around or was last year a blip?

Paul Sporer: Not 100% sure if India is still hurt, but he has been dreadful since returning making it certainly seeeem like he’s still ailing. He’s hitting .145/.234/.246 with a .174 BABIP, 27% K, and 4% BB. He’s just not himself. He wasn’t fully his last yr self in the 11 gms before the injury, but that’s 11 gms so it’s kinda worthless. Similarly, this 18 gm sample isn’t an end-all, be-all by any stretch. Hard to really come to any other conclusion than still ailing and/or really bad luck. I’m reluctant to cut him right now in anything beyond a 10-teamer, but I understand benching him as he’s doing NOTHINGGGG.

Kirby: How do you rank Yastrzemski, Naylor, Garrett Cooper ROS?

Paul Sporer: Naylor, Yaz, Cooper. Good group w/out too much split. As much as I like Cooper, he just doesn’t have the power to compete w/the other 2. Yaz has similar pop this year, but has a better track record of power to lean on. Naylor is the best of the bunch with legit 30+ HR pwr if he doesn’t get too groundball-happy again

Mike: Honest question as I appreciate you doing these every week and I am sure you get inundated with overlapping questions. But was curious about your process and how you go about selecting which questions to select? I like to ask a few but realistically have one “top” question/concern/topic a week. So I guess my question boils down to what makes you more likely to pick a question/comment?

Paul Sporer: A direct question really helps. Thoughts on… or who should I trade so-and-so for… type stuff is too broad and often gets skipped over bc I don’t know what the asker wants. Having league specifics helps a lottt. I like Qs with some broad appeal where the answer can help many, but I’m not averse to league-specific trade or pickup Qs as long as they have the requisite details to make a real decision. I do bounce around the queue bc it does fill quickly and as I mentioned earlier, I don’t want to spend allll the time on just the first chunk of Qs. I try to get a wide swath and as many as I can while still giving thoughtful answers

40/40: Julio first rounder in 2023?

Paul Sporer: Barring a meltdown 2nd half, yes

Edward: Is Tarik Skubal toasted?

Paul Sporer: Not toasted, but in trouble. Check the first Q of the chat, I covered in more detail

Stoner’s Pot Palace: Given as many games as Jesus Aguilar has played before finally successfully stealing a base, would you have been able to steal a base faster than him?

Paul Sporer: I’d have to get on first. I maaaaayyyyybbbbeee could’ve stolen one first, but only if you’re spotting me a certain amt of chances on 1st and frankly I’d need them given to me bc I’m not getting any hits off an MLBer lol. I’m 40, blind as shit, and was basically Jeff Mathis by my sophomore in high school. Stupid high school coach didn’t appreciate my framing. We could’ve gone to state!!!!!

Cody: Teoscar for Joe Ryan – fair, or coming up short? 12 team mixed, cat

Paul Sporer: Totally fair, IMO

Enrico Palazzo: Please rank ROS: Taillon, Quantrill, Triston Mac

Paul Sporer: While there is a little age to these ranks, it hasn’t changed the outlook on these 3, so I’d still adhere to their slotting here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-updated-starting-pitcher-ra…

Enrico Palazzo: ROS Naquin or Olivares?

Paul Sporer: I prefer Olivares, but it’s close. Naquin is a trade risk which could hurt his production due to park, playing time, and lineup spot downgrades depending where he lands. I wonder if the Dodgers check in with the Taylor injury. The lineup itself would be better, but he’d definitely be hitting lower third in a worse park while not necessarily playing all the time (though he doesn’t hit vL anyway so maybe he shouldn’t even play as much as he does v. them w/CIN)

Joey: Best place to see a rolling, say 50 game, barrel leaderboard? I can’t find a spot on Statcast or Fangraphs

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure that’s available if neither us nor Savant has it, tbh

Paul Sporer: I’ll run it up the flagpole and see if it’s something we could maybe facilitate in the future

Quentin: Any concern with the recent Jose Ramirez Struggles? The difference in plate skills since the “thumb injury” is staggering. In interviews he just says his “timing is off”

Paul Sporer: The dip does time perfectly w/the thumb so it might just be an Occam’s Razor situation. A 2-wk lull doesn’t have me too worried right now especially w/the break on deck. The only problem is that even if it lingers into the break and the first week or so out of it, it’s not like we’re going to bench him or anything. If CLE has him in the lineup, so do we

Clemson: You were a catcher at your height? How are your knees?

Paul Sporer: Hit the growth spurt later. Would’ve been awesome had it come a year or two earlier and maybe I could’ve pitched!

Joey: Wondering where Eno found it in his recent piece re: rolling barrels

Paul Sporer: Oh he’s got all sorts of non-public facing shit I bet!

Homer: Paul, is the possibility (just read about it) of an innings management scheme giving you second thoughts on the 16 ranking you put on Severino?

Paul Sporer: No, these are never meant to be for the rest of the season for exactly reasons like this. We’re going to get so much more info and I’m going to post multiple more sets of rankings so it just doesn’t make sense for me to try and nail my thoughts for the remainder of the year. They are 4-6 wk window rankings. I usually don’t get too worried about potential IP mgmt, either. Bc it’s so inexact, I find the overplanning to be counterproductive. I’ll take what I get from Sevvy and worry about IP stuff down the line

Homer: How are you feeling about Glasnow coming off TJ for next year?  I’m trying to trade for him in my keeper, as his value is almost FA money.

Paul Sporer: I’m not a fan of TJ returners their first year back in most cases with rare exceptions like JV this year. Glasnow and his health profile plus the general caution of the Rays with pitchers will keep me pretty far from Glasnow next year. Keeper is different and a buy low at this juncture makes some sense w/the big picture in mind. Just keep expectations tempered and focus more on the 2024 season

Oneil Cruz: Can I change my strikeout issues this year? Or is it a next year thing?

Paul Sporer: It’s an always kind of thing, but I’m not sure he will make significant strides in that realm anytime soon given his size and power approach. Power guys in general have higher K rates but then you throw in his 6’7 stature that could open some extra holes for pitchers to attack. That said, his talent and athleticism are so robust that he can likely outrun the Ks in fantasy terms w/his pwr & spd

Micah: Will Lynn regain his top 15 SP status by the end of July?

Paul Sporer: i’d be very surprised if he did it that quickly. I’m not sure it’s a great bet for this year at this point

Bill: Thanks for doing these chats, don’t make it in always but always read them after

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! I only recently learned that a decent pocket of ppl read them afterwards and that was really cool to learn! Thanks if you’re a non-live reader and of course huge thanks to those who take the time to come out as well. I know not everyone can come out on a weekday, but definitely appreciate all who engage w/the chat!

Sid: Can Lodolo be a viable streamer at home?

Paul Sporer: He definitely has the talent to survive Cincy because of his ability to generate whiffs! There are going to be ups and downs in the development process, but the upside is massive

Gallo: Gallo a buy low in OBP league or is he toast without the beard?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I’m not that hopeful. The power outage is definitely surprising but the rest of it is in the range of outcomes. I don’t think I’m that interested in buying

bart: I don’t understand your Gausman rank at SP9. He’s at SP32 on the Razzball player rater and I don’t see a reason why his performance to date would improve significantly to change that.

Paul Sporer: That’s kind of a flawed way to look at though, right? Because under that, you then believe that Tyler Wells, Nick Pivetta, Tyler Anderson, Martin Perez, Miles Mikolas, Cristian Javier, Nestor Cortes, and Spencer Strider are all going to stay above him and I doubt you actually believe that with the large majority of those names. Plus, a ranking isn’t a perfect 1:1 prediction of where they are going to finish. That’s an impossible task. It’s more if I’m choosing pitchers from here forward, I’m eyeing Gausman as a Top 10 pick because of skills, track record, and probability of being great

Andrew: Paul, why is Torkelson bad?

Paul Sporer: I touched on him earlier and obviously we’ve been going a while so I know not everyone has seen every Q thus far. Just do a quick Ctrl-F on Tork for my thoughts

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin’! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer) and Twitch (sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!