I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
• Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda

David Peterson (364 ADP)

The 27-year-old lefty has a ton going for him. A 94-mph fastball. His ERA and ERA estimators were all under 4.00 last season. He had a 10.7 K/9 which was 14th best among all starters with at least 100 IP. He mixed up his pitches by throwing four of them over 12% of the time. His slider is his borderline elite with a 25% SwStr%. He gets a ton of sink on his pitches and had a 49% GB% leading to a 0.9 HR/9.

The only item keeping him from being one of the elite arms in the game is a lack of control.

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With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 50 starting pitchers according to Steamer’s projections. Read the rest of this entry »

A quick little lineup of hitters with some upside given their current draft price (Oct thru mid-Nov):

CATCHER

Jonah Heim | TEX | 286th ADP; 18th C

Finished as 14th C on Auction Calculator

Heim was pacing toward a helluva season (18 HR, .263 AVG) before the bottom absolutely fell out in the final two months. Sure, some of it was regression from his .785 OPS through July but this was egregious. He hit .157/.244/.286 from August on with a comically low .167 BABIP. Even as a flyball pull hitter (a rough combo for BABIP), this is just absurd. This feels like small sample bad luck as both his K% and BB% rates were incrementally better in the ugly stretch. The fall-off paired with a catching boom has pushed Heim down to the 18th C off the board, a price I’m more than willing to pay as I think he’s a top 15 C with top 10 upside.

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Unhinged addicts?

I’m sure 99.99% of the population (probably a major under estimation) would agree with this description. The deal is that if anyone is even considering reading an article about ADP (average draft position) in November, they’re probably close to the 0.01%. Right now, the NFBC ADP is the only available draft data from multiple drafts. I decided to dive in and find out who these “people” are who anchor valuations and affect the decisions of future drafters.

The reason many people put more faith in this ADP is that there is decent money on the line ($150 min buy-in). The managers aren’t going to blow off the last half of the draft and are continuously looking for an edge.

The most important factor to remember is that this ADP is for draft-and-hold leagues where there are no in-season adds. Since they are 5×5 Roto leagues, scarce resources (Saves and Steals) will be pushed up. Additionally, the safety of regular contributors will have a priority of upside plays.

To run the study, I found the participants in 22 of the leagues so far. Here is a breakdown of the results and some of my thoughts.

Starting off, here is the number of teams drafted by the same manager.

Of the 330 teams, there are just 172 unique managers with almost three-fourths of the teams managed by owners with multiple teams. It means that 85 people have a major influence on player valuations. But do they really? Putting the number in those terms, I don’t see a problem. If the 85 people were limited to just one league, that means there would be ADP from six 15-team leagues (a little number fudging). Six leagues is a reasonable starting point for November valuation discussions.

Now, the six managers (4% of all managers) who have drafted five or more teams have a total of 37 teams (11% of all teams). It’s possible that a single manager’s opinion could push up or down a certain player. This take is not just unique to the NFBC and is a major factor on every platform that does rankings. When mainstream sights host their mock drafts, most of the time, it’s the same website participants in each one. On top of that, a website influencer’s “correct” opinions will then be baked into the initial player rankings thereby anchoring the website’s ADP.

One other issue I’ve seen levied against using NFBC drafts is that it’s full of industry analysts/content creators and their opinions. I went through all the managers and spotted that 12 of the 172 managers (7%) are in the fantasy industry. They had 22 total teams, again 7% of the total. The number drafting is probably a bit higher since some people may use a pseudonym but the number stays under 10%. Any industry influence is almost non-existent and the leagues are full of dedicated fantasy managers wanting to get a way-too-early start on the 2023 draft season. Again, unhinged addicts.

Tye Tolberman sat in his favorite armchair on the coldest day of mid-January in western Maryland, steam coming off his morning coffee as he looked out the window. He took one glance at the ice covering his driveway and decided he just wasn’t going outside today. On his side table sat a pile of unopened letters, a checklist of things needed to be done, and a printed-out spreadsheet a friend had given him the last time he went east to see the Bowie Baysox play last summer.

“It fell out of some scout’s binder the last time I was here. He went flying out of there after the starting pitcher got taken out, so I couldn’t catch him to give it back”, his friend told him as they sat and took in a night game. “Anyways, you can have it if you want. I’m not wasting my time with that fantasy baseball crap this year. I’ve got too much real life to live”, and he placed it in the hands of ol’ Tye Tolberman, manager of the going-on 14-year-old “Buck’s Bucks” fantasy team.

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I’m sure everyone has seen this graphic on Baseball Savant but if not, go take a look.

This may be the most trusted but misleading graphic used in (fantasy) baseball analysis. It was all over Twitter today with the Teoscar Hernández trade to show off his greatness. Read the rest of this entry »

I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP. Here are the previous editions:

• Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
• Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
• Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
• Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale

Garrett Whitlock (300 ADP)

With the recent news that the 26-year-old righty will be in the Red Sox rotation, I decided to take a look since his ADP is just at 300. Read the rest of this entry »

11/15/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the FanGraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters.

Francisco Lindor Steamer Projection: PAs 666 24 HR, 81 R, 86 RBI, 13 SBs, .250/.322/.430

Lindor finally looked like the vintage version of himself in 2022, putting up a top 10 fantasy season so I am a little surprised he made this list. There isn’t a ton in the profile that says he is going to take a step back as long as he is healthy and after playing 161 games in 2022, there isn’t much reason to believe he won’t be again. He could definitely regress a bit in the batting average department as he had an xAVG of .254, but batting average is fluky and I am not overthinking that too much. I think he is a pretty safe bet as a third round pick and if he drops in a draft, I’ll be snagging him most times.

Ozzie Albies Steamer Projection: 570 PAs, 20 HR, 69 R, 73 RBI, 13 SBs, .259/.312/.455

Albies has the largest gap between his ADP and Auction value of any hitter in the top 100. This one is all about health. Albies only played in 64 games which was the second time in three seasons in which he missed a larger portion of the season. When healthy, Albies is a five category stud, but last year he was a massive bust for those of us taking him in the first or second round. I don’t want to dismiss the other concerns for Albies however. Albies was struggling before his initial injury, hitting .244/.289/.405 with eight home runs and three stolen bases and was dropping in the lineup. Lineup spot will be very important to his value as he loses a lot of value if he is not hitting in the top half. I tend to believe he will be hitting in the top five and should be healthy heading into 2023, so I am willing to take a gamble on a player I was willing to take as a first round pick last year that I can get in the fourth round like I did in my first draft of the year.

Trevor Story Steamer Projection: PAs 642, 23 HR, 77 R 82 RBI, 17 SBs, .238/.311/.425

Story is coming off of a disaster season in his first year in Boston where he played just 94 games and struggled massively when healthy. I can chalk up a lot to learning to hit outside of Coors, learning a new position, and injury. That being said, I think some of his ADP is still based on his name value which was boosted by his former home park. There are some concerns with the underlying skills. He had his highest strikeout rate, hostess o-swing, and lowest contact rate since 2017. He did still hit the ball with authority and was fantastic on the bases, not getting caught once. I think he is one of the hardest players to project due to his first season out of Coors being so injury riddled, but the stretch of 202 plate appearances between June 1 and ending his season on September 11 where he hit seven home runs and stole seven bases with a .254 average feels about right and when you project that over the 575 plate appearances that FanGraphs Depth Charts gives him, you get a 20/20 season with a .254 average and that would put him right around where steamer has him which confirms for me that he is probably being over-drafted.

Gunnar Henderson Steamer Projection: PAs 619, 22 HR, 76 R, 78 RBI, 10 SBs, .254/.344/.443

Man, I want to love Henderson for this year, but I am afraid of the hype. He is already going in the top 100 and I just am having a hard time believing he is worth that. On the plus side, he should have an everyday role right off the bat and there is a ton of talent in the bat. On the negative side, Henderson had a two degree launch angle in the Majors and that led to a 60% ground ball rate and a 24.4% flyball percentage which was even worse than his high ground ball and low flyball rates we saw him post in AAA. He was also oddly passive at the plate, sporting a 41% swing percentage which led to a 18.6% called strike rate and below average z-contact rate. The power is there but he will have a hard time tapping into it right away unless there is a change in the approach and swing path. I think he is a fade for me this season especially as the price inevitably climbs due to his youth and upside.

Adolis Garcia Steamer Projection: PAs 648, 27 HR, 74 R, 86 RBI, 17 SBs, .233/.283/.427

Adolis was everyone’s favorite fade last year to the point that he became a huge bargain on draft day. However, I am still fading the underlying skills. He had the third worst zone contact rate, ninth worst o-swing, and fourth worst swinging strike rate of any qualified hitter in baseball last year. There is a ton of power and speed and his defense will keep him on the field through cold stretches, so even when the awful plate skills catch up with him, he can still have value especially if you have strong batting average players offsetting what could be a huge anchor. Right now, I can’t pay the price, but as more and more people write and talk about the bad underlying numbers, he could end up being another good value once again.

Tyler O’Neill Steamer Projection: PAs 559, 26 HR, 68 R. 75 RBI, 14 SBs, .243/.315/.447

This is an interesting one for me. At first glance O’Neill’s line doesn’t look that bad. He made some really good changes to his approach and underlying skills. He became more patient and selective which led to a career best zone contact, walk rate and strikeout rate. I think a lot of it comes down to how many games he plays. Steamer projects 134 a year after he played only 96 due to injury and two years after playing 138. He is projected to be healthy this season and his defense should keep him on the field when healthy, but there are rumors he could be dealt to a different team. Where he ends up will determine a lot of his value. Staying in St. Louis is a bit of a double edged sword. It is a fantastic lineup which is good and bad as he has no chance at being one of the top four hitters, but you want players in good lineups. The Cardinals also have multiple prospects knocking on the door of the Majors and while they aren’t naturally outfielders, it seems likely that Jordan Walker will move to the outfield and Masyn Winn could push Tommy Edman to the outfield. If O’Neill gets traded, he likely bats higher in the lineup and is in a better park, but that could raise his price. Right now, I am not overly scared of the current price because of how bad the outfield position is, but his price is important to keep watching.

Kris Bryant Steamer Projection: 568 PAs, 20 HR, 78 R, 69 RBI, 5 SB, .269//.348/.458

Bryant is coming off of a lost season in his first with the Rockies in which he only played 42 games. He was great in the games he played, hitting .306/.376/.475 with five home runs, though 26 of his 42 games were in Coors. One of the main issues is that he has struggled to stay healthy. Bryant has lost major parts of three of the last five seasons and has not played in 150 games since 2017. I think Bryant has been overrated for a few years now, but the fact he is in Coors now will continue that trend. I am fading him at the current price and do not expect his price to drop moving forward.

With drafts going and projections being released it is time to look at what they say about each other. This week I am going to look at what Steamer says about who is undervalued and overvalued at their current ADP. I took the Fangraphs Auction Calculator Values for Steamer and compared them to the current NFBC ADP to see which names jumped out at me within the top 100 projected hitters. Read the rest of this entry »