2022 Catcher Review

Catcher is always an interesting fantasy position. In 1-catcher formats, you will have a large portion of the league that simply takes what the drafts gives them, even if they are the last one to select their backstop. While they know the teams with the stud Cs will have an advantage, it is one they are willing to relent as they are fine getting “stuck” with the lower end and streaming. In 2-catcher formats, there is an array of strategies ranging from double studs at the high end to double punt at the low end and everything in between.

The position seems to be undergoing a youth movement recently that could result in uncharacteristic depth. It is normal to see catchers breakout later as hitters because their #1 priority upon arrival is managing the pitching staff and to a lesser extent, the running game. This year saw a spike in young catchers both playing and playing well. The 10 catchers age-25 and under who logged 200+ PA doubled last year’s total and was the first double-digit total since 2012. Half of those catchers managed a 100 or better OPS+ as well. There were 4 such catchers in 2021, too. The 9 catchers to reach that 100 or better OPS+ mark in 2021-22 are more than the 8 we saw in 2015-19 (including 0 in 2018).

Are catchers a booming market? How’d we get here and who stands out for 2023?

2022 DRAFT REVIEW

The 2022 catching market had a clear top 4… well, top 3 with a little brother they kinda brought along. Four catchers had average draft positions (ADP) in the top 100 with Salvador Perez (41st pick ADP), J.T. Realmuto (54), and Will Smith (67) lived in a relatively tight ADP band, none of the three going later than pick-85 in the NFBC Main Event (47 drafts in the sample). Upstart Daulton Varsho (88) wasn’t fully trusted in the market, but his proponents were strong enough to net him an ADP inside the top 100.

Chicago’s two catchers – Yasmani Grandal (116) and Willson Contreras (120) – were there for those who wanted a stable, quality catcher, but weren’t willing to pay full price for one. Both had minimum picks inside the top 100 (85 for Grandal, 96 for Contreras) but they fell as far as the 10th round with max picks at 154 and 153, respectively. Another three rounds would pass before the next group of catchers would go with Mitch Garver (163), Tyler Stephenson (168), and Keibert Ruiz (174) being the last three with an ADP inside the Top 200.

Alejandro Kirk was on an island with a 201 ADP, 27 picks after Ruiz and 30 picks clear of Christian Vázquez (231), as he rounded out the Top 10. Eight more catchers would go in the next five rounds on average, ranging from the best prospect in baseball whose ADP would’ve been 150+ picks higher if he was guaranteed an Opening Day spot to veteran backstops whose playing time was more secure than their hitting talent: Vazquez – 231, Elias Díaz – 238, Sean Murphy – 257, Travis d’Arnaud – 268, Gary Sánchez – 273, Omar Narváez – 277, Adley Rutschman – 284, and Mike Zunino – 297.

The Main Event is a 15-team, 2-catcher setup so at least 30 are needed at any moment. After pick 300, seven more catchers would be drafted in all 47 MEs, running the total to 26 who were taken in every Main Event: Carson Kelly – 303, Max Stassi – 315, Joey Bart – 317, Danny Jansen – 327, Yadier Molina – 339, Austin Nola 357, and James McCann – 358. Beyond that, only three others went in at least 40 MEs: Eric Haase (353) went in 46, Jorge Alfaro (381) went in 45, and Jacob Stallings (406) went in 43. Kyle Higashioka (389) went in 39 and had a surprising 236 min pick, lower than the eight guys who went in front of him (ranging from Stassi to Alfaro).

The only real notable pick among the remaining catchers picked was MJ Melendez (418). The Royals discussed moving the sweet swinging prospect to another position in order to play both he and Perez, but even with that knowledge it was clear he would spend at least a few weeks in Triple-A to start the season, so he was still tough to draft in a format with just seven reserve spots and no designated IL/minor league spots.

2022 SEASON REVIEW

The market almost nailed the Top 4 as they all finished within the Top 5 according to the Auction Calculator with Perez landing just 30 cents behind Kirk in terms of dollar value. Normally, I just round the value so they’d be tied at $16, but the extra precision felt worthwhile here since Kirk ($15.80) did nudge Perez ($15.50) out of that Top 4. It’s worth noting that Realmuto ($30), Varsho ($24), and Smith ($21) were a cut above Kirk and Perez while Wi.Contreras, Murphy, and d’Arnaud were right there with those two at $15 apiece.

A couple prospects completed the Top 10 in William Contreras ($13) and Rutschman ($12). Wm.Contreras is definitely the biggest surprise here as he wasn’t drafted at all despite hitting 8 HRs in 185 PA during the 2021 season because it was hard to see how he would get any playing time. Manny Piña was seen as solid backup to d’Arnaud but suffered a wrist injury in early-May that required season-ending surgery.

Two more prospects kicked off the next 10 with Cal Raleigh ($11) emerging to lead catchers in home runs (27) and the aforementioned Melendez ($10) getting the call on May 3rd after backup Cam Gallagher was sidelined by a torn hamstring. Literally the day Gallagher returned, Perez went down with a thumb injury that required surgery and cost him a month. Melendez proved himself to solidify a spot even when all three were healthy which led to Gallagher being trade at the deadline.

The two present some ranking challenge for 2023 as Raleigh cuts a Zunino-esque figure. Raleigh got down to a palatable 29% K rate, but it was 35% last year which is exactly Zunino’s career mark. He had flashes of contact success in the minors including a really sharp 13% K rate in 199 PA at Triple-A in 2021 but the sellout for power approach seems purposeful and with that comes the strikeouts. He can crush 30 HRs even with an elevated K%, but he becomes someone you really have to plan to take on as 400+ PA of sub-.200 AVG stings.

A brutal second half short-circuited Jonah Heim’s breakout. He took a .263/.327/.459 line with 12 HRs into August and watched it evaporate to .227/.298/.399 thanks to his .157/.244/.286 line in his final 156 PA. I’m not sure what happened with him and it might just be that he suffered impossibly bad luck to the tune of a .167 BABIP. His plate skills actually improved (18% K, 10% BB) and none of his batted ball profiles changes would merit such a drop-off. I couldn’t find any injury that may’ve lingered through the summer, either. It should at least keep his price at bay for 2023 and I’m interested in a rebuy.

Haase was a miss for me. I was very worried about his plate skills and the fact that his 2021 breakout was probably just a hot 2-months from a 28-year-old backup catcher. I also didn’t see much extra PT for him in the outfield and with the arrival of Tucker Barnhart, he seemed like a once-a-week catcher. While I knew nothing was final two months in, my confirmation bias wasn’t surprised by his .167/.231/.264 line in just 78 PA heading into June. That said, it was clear that the .189 BABIP in sporadic playing time was the primary culprit, especially as he was striking out just 21% of the time. His fortunes soon turned both in playing time and results. A .358 BABIP drove his healthy .279/.326/.494 line with 12 HR in 273 PA.

Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 and Jose Trevino (both $6) carved out pockets of fantasy value that made them viable streamers even in 1-catcher formats. Bethancourt spent half his games at 1B/DH but I’m not sure his sub-.300 OBP is enticing a team to use him there very often. Oakland gave him 41 of his 48 games at 1B/DH so if he stays with Tampa Bay, playing time could be sparse. Trevino shouldn’t be playing against righties (.625 OPS for career; .616 for 2022) so I’m not sure a short-side platoon catcher is worth drafting.

Grandal (-$5) was the biggest bust at catcher, finishing 54th in a brutal, injury-riddle season. He posted just a 68 wRC+ with 5 HR in 376 PA. Ruiz ($5) was a pretty big disappointment as well, falling well short of his 9th ADP at the position, checking in at 20th by season’s end. Stephenson’s ($4) breakout season was devastated by injury. He suffered a fractured right thumb in early-June that cost him a month and then just two weeks later, he suffered a fracture right clavicle that ended his season. His 134 wRC+ was 4th among catchers (min. 180 PA) when the shoulder injury hit.

A small sample standout to remember is Nick Fortes. He had 9 HR and 5 SB in 240 PA. The SBs did come with 3 caught so a 63% success rate might get him slowed down on the bases but I still like the plate skills (19% K, 8% BB) and feel he could top that .230 AVG. Perhaps Fortes can take the lion’s share of catching in Miami next year as Stallings managed just a 71 wRC+ and saw his power crater with a .069 ISO (.123 in 2019-21).

2023 TOP 15

Here is my early look at the Top 15:

(My focus is 2-catcher, 15-team leagues, though they probably don’t change much regardless of format)