Here is my chat transcript for today!

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As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

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12/2/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

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10 Qs About Justin’s SP Rankings

• Is it health or performance that keeps Frankie Montas down?
• Will Jordan Montgomery and Miles Mikolas be negatively impacted by the shift rule changes?
• What concerns do you have about Dylan Cease v. the market?
• How do you feel about Zach Eflin now that he’s a Ray?
• Did Reid Detmers summer breakout not sell you?

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I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well below where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC Draft Champions ADP.

Dylan Cease: My Rank 19, ADP: 6
I am not surprised to see Cease a lot lower in my ranks than in the ADP. He is coming off of a monster season, but there are clear red flags. First, for being an “elite” starter, he doesn’t have a great WHIP. I think this is one of the most overlooked categories in the game. Part of his issue with the WHIP is how much he walks guys and I worry about the fact he does not have great control and him relying so much on two pitches. He could easily repeat last season and I’ll look dumb, but if I am taking a pitcher as high as he is going, then I would prefer to not have the questions I did.

Spencer Strider: My Rank: 17, ADP: 8
This is another player that I could look really stupid by the end of 2023. Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball if you look on a per inning basis. If he repeats with a higher inning total, he could easily be the #1 pitcher in fantasy. That being said, I struggle with his lack of track record and what his innings count will be. He threw 136.1 innings in 2022 if you include the playoffs and minors and while he could make a jump to 150 or 160 innings, but I have a hard time projecting that. I also worry about his true two-pitch mix. Guys like him can struggle when they don’t have the feel for a pitch and as hitters start to see him over time. He may move up in my projections over time, but even if he does, I can’t imagine he ends up on any of my teams this year.

Nick Lodolo: My Rank 69, ADP 38
This one hurts a little because I love Lodolo’s potential. He can strike out anyone and I the control and command are improving. However, I don’t love that he pitches in Cincinnati. It is a horrible park and the team is not going to be good at all. He is likely going to deliver a bad WHIP and wins will be hard to come by and while I love the upside, it is hard to take a guy that has potential to be just a two-category producer as a SP 3 or high end 4.

Dustin May: My Rank 93, ADP: 46
Who is Dustin May? That is the question I struggled with when doing his projections. I want to believe he is the dominant guy we saw in 2021 and that 2022 is largely a product of his health. That being said, I just can’t get past the injury issues. He only threw 51 innings between the Majors and minors and he didn’t even appear in the postseason. I can’t imagine he gets to 130+ innings which means his upside is limited even on a great Dodgers team.

Michael Kopech My Rank: 101, ADP: 69
I am surprised at this point that people are still drafting Kopech as highly as they are considering what we have seen from him. I think a lot of people are throwing out how he looked after hurting his knee in June, but I worry about his command and control and the huge dropoff in strikeout rate in 2022 which means he is a fifth starter with a bad WHIP. Finally, I worry he won’t be able to throw 140-150 innings. Maybe a return to health means he becomes the guy many believed (including me) he would eventually become, but I think there are too many people still drafting him based off of his name value from that prospect pedigree and not enough people looking at what has happened on the field. I could definitely find myself pushing him up my ranks in spring training if we see a completely healthy Kopech that looks great, but for right now, I can’t draft him at cost.

I am almost all the way through my pitching projections and as I start to compare my projections versus ADP I am noticing guys that I think are nice values or guys that are extremely overrated early in draft season. Here are a few of the starting pitchers I have ranked well above where they are going versus other starters in terms of NFBC draft champions ADP. 

Read the rest of this entry »

11/29/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Hunter Renfroe & Gio Urshela to LAA
• José Abreu to HOU
• Mike Clevinger to CWS

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Looking at the fantasy outlook from LA’s bevy of moves plus their division rival signs a star 1B!

Renfroe traded to LAA

Hunter Renfroe traded to LAA for Janson Junk (#7 on LAA 2022 Prospect List), Adam Seminaris (#18), and Elvis Peguero (#33)

The trade of Brandon Marsh and continued struggles of Jo Adell (77 wRC+ in ’22; 68 career) left the Angels with a corner outfield opening. Renfroe is a 31-year-old power hitter who will join his 5th team in as many seasons (SD, TB, BOS, MIL) and has been an above average hitter in three of the last four seasons, averaging 35 HR per 600 PA with a 110 wRC+. The park move is slightly a bonus for Renfroe. Angel Stadium and American Family Field have the same HR factor for righties at 112 while Angel Stadium is three points clear of AFF in overall park factor at 103. He does lose a bit across the division mainly due to the Cincinnati-for-Oakland trade while the HOU-SEA-TEX and CHC-STL-PIT trios essentially offset one another, but the shift to a balanced schedule this year mitigates that difference a bit.

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Here is my chat from today’s chat!

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I was going to write up another four deep league starters before taking a couple of weeks off, but I saw this tweet from Shelly Verougstraete come through my feed.

A recent-ish site I have found that is SO helpful in off-season prep…

Pro Sports Transactions

I don't know who runs the site but pic.twitter.com/OxcIhcxG1T

— Shelly 'First Rate' Verougstraete (@ShellyV_643) November 23, 2022

I was a little surprised to see others didn’t know about Pro Sports Transactions since I use it several times a day. With it as inspiration, the following is a list of websites and sources I use the most. The ones used the most depend on the time of year (in- season or off-season. I know there is tons of other content being created but these are the ones I can’t live without. In the comments, feel free to add other sources people can’t live without. Read the rest of this entry »

As we sit down to eat our Thanksgiving meals tomorrow and discuss “what we are thankful for,” we often look around the table and see a lot of different dishes and personalities, some good and some not, that grace our table. This is no different than when we sit down at the draft table. In honor of this, I have put together a definitive ranking of each Thanksgiving dish and what kind of fantasy baseball player they would be. 

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