Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 5th, 2022

Pedro: Should be a slow chat.  No big name starters have changed teams or leagues in the last 48 hours

Justin Mason: Definitely a good time to have a chat lol. Maybe we get some other signings before it is over.

Guest: Keeper Q: 12 teamer (deep, plays like a 14) with pitching at a premium (best guys kept, a lot of top hitters kept too). Three options:

Guest: Keeper Q: 12 teamer (deep, plays like a 14) where pitching is premium (top guys are kept so it thins out quickly). Three options:

1. Keep Sandy as a 1st rounder for 2023 only (tbd draft order)
2. “Franchise” Sandy as a 3rd rounder, but he’s locked in as my 3rd every year for the next three years (no exceptions)
3. Throw Sandy back, keep Luis Castillo as a 3rd rounder for 2023 only

Justin Mason: I think I would do option #2. In a league like this where SPs are at a premium, you don’t get much safer than Sandy.

Matt: Not so much a question, but thoughts on the deGrom deal? Basically roulette, right? If he stays healthy, the Rangers could be good. If he doesn’t, they are still quite bad.

Justin Mason: It definitely has some risk, but I love the upside for them especially with how well that park plays for pitching. Now they need to get some bullpen help.

Buster’s Good Friend Hunter: I’ve been hearing some analysts talk a lot about Ball% (1-Zone%) being meaningful for SP, but I am a little confused by the 2022 leaderboards. Corbin Burnes is in the bottom 15 for Ball% (high ball%) and Liam Hendriks/Dylan Cease are in the bottom 30. The other end of the list includes Steven Matz, Yu Darvish, Framber Valdez, and George Kirby. Is Ball% something you use? And if so, how do you use it in your analysis?

Justin Mason: I’ll be honest, I have never heard of this. I will definitely look into it though. Never can have too many metrics to work with. I am a big fan of Zone metrics normally and Stuff+ (shoutout to Eno) and then my own eye test.

Ryan: How do you feel about 40 year old justin verlander pitching in cold weather new york

Justin Mason: I am not super worried about that. It is a good park to pitch in plus he will have the benefit of guys not having seen him much to start the year when it is cold. Health is the only worry with Verlander.

Kate: With Verlander out of Houston, do you expect the Stros to look at other starters?  Or will they just fall back on their depth now?  If the latter, that’s helps Hunter Brown’s situation quite a bit.

Justin Mason: I think the Astros may roll with what they have or pick up a swingman type. They have Brown who is definitely ready. I will be upgrading his projection later today.

Kate: Does Alzolay have a shot at starting the year off in position to get some saves?  Maybe not as “the guy”, but as part of a committee?

Kate: Also on Alzolay, is he def in the pen?  Or will they give him one more chance to start?

Justin Mason: I think a lot of it will depend on if the Cubs add anyone in free agency. Personally, I think they should give him a chance to start, but the Cubs have been rumored to be one of the teams willing to spend this offseason and if they add a starter, he might be relegated to the pen.

Justin Mason: That being said, he could be an interesting closer darkhorse considering the lack of options there.

Insert Witty Name Here: How do you see Trea Turner aging? Speed will obviously decrease, does his bat have enough thump to age well? Any comps you can think of?

Justin Mason: I think he will age fine. He has such a sweet swing that even if he loses some power, the average will continue to be there. I am interested to see what kind of park he signs in. The speed may drop at some point, but I don’t think it completely falls off.

Kate: Eno mentioned on a recent pod that guys who take a long time between pitches could possibly be hurt more than others by the pitch clock.  Are you taking this into account in your SP ranks at all and, if so, who are some guys to fade in this regard?

Justin Mason: I am not really too worried about it. First we don’t know how strict umpires will be about it. Second, pitchers will adjust. Maybe it is an issue in a pitchers first few outings, but they will all adjust.

Ben: Has there been a better pitcher than Scherzer who’s spent this much of his career as the #2 in his own team’s rotation? (2010-14 Tigers, under deGrom w/ the Mets, now Verlander

Justin Mason: Don’t forget behind Anibal Sanchez in Washington too!

Kate: How do you think the Twins use Maeda this year coming off TJ?  Will they just let him go since this is his last year of control?

Justin Mason: I think they don’t have much reason to protect him. That being said, I do not like drafting guys off of TJ, so he won’t be on any of my teams.

Damian: Thoughts on Tyler ward? He was incredible pre and post injury, think he can do it again?

Justin Mason: I am assuming you mean Taylor Ward…

Justin Mason: I think he is a really nice outfield option, but I am a little worried about where he will hit in the lineup when everyone is healthy. Hopefully fourth which is where he spent a lot of the late part of the season. There is a really nice approach and zone contact ability with power.

Kate: Based on the recent pod, you’re pretty high on Singer.  His lack of a real third pitch and mediocre whiff rates don’t give you any pause?

Justin Mason: Definitely needs to increase that third pitch usage, but I love the stuff. He will be a workhorse innings wise so he doesn’t need high K-rates to get those strikeouts.

Pedro: I can keep Framber at $17 in an AL only 5×5.  He was great for me last year, but I am concerned about the heavy work load, plus all the innings he threw in the post-season.  Thoughts?

Justin Mason: I would keep him at 17. I have him as a top 25 SP in a mixed league and 7th in AL only. There is concern, but I think it is more to due with the high groundball rate and the “no shift” this year. That being said, I am still a big fan.

Kate: How confident are you that Gallo will land somewhere that gives him everyday ABs?

Justin Mason: Not extremely. At some point, you have to make contact. He will get a job, but I would guess it won’t be a full time one.

Kate: Ezequiel Duran have a shot at the LF job in Texas?  Sounds like he’s been playing some OF in winter ball to get ready.  If he does win a job, would you have any interest in him?

Justin Mason: He definitely could get a shot, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers sign someone else as well.

Rob Manfred’s Participation Trophy: Hey Justin! Coke or Pepsi?

Justin Mason: I am a Pepsi guy for sure, but I will drink either. I have unfortunately moved to diet soda to lose weight.

BeauSox: What’s the most likely spot for Bryan Mata – high leverage relief or back end starter?

Justin Mason: I think he is a backend starter for now, but if he doesn’t get the control reigned in, he will be a high leverage reliever.

The Internet is Made of Ethan Katz: What are your thoughts on Giolito? Is he cooked?

Justin Mason: I don’t think he is cooked, but he was entirely too hittable in 2022. I wrote about him falling behind in count where he then really struggled: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/steamer-overvalued-vs-adp-top-50-startin…

Insert Witty Name Here: If Bryce Harper comes back June 1, where would you be comfortable drafting him?

Justin Mason: I would only draft him in leagues where you have a ton of IL spots. Injuries can ruin your season, why invite that on to your team at the draft table?

Paddy: Gonsolin was a top 20 SP last season but being drafted 168 overall in NFBC. Even if he regresses, this seems excessive

Justin Mason: I tend to agree here. I definitely think he regresses. The question is: how much?

Justin Mason: Also, is he healthy and what kind of innings do we get from him. I have him at SP 48 right now.

The Internet is Made of Ethan Katz: That article was what had me wondering what you’d say. I guess I’m wondering if you’re buying shares of Giolito this year or view him as a bounceback. Projections so far seem to have him coming back some but not returning to form. Mulling a trade for him, thus the follow-up.

Justin Mason: I think it always depends on the price. I have him at SP 61, but there is obviously top 10 upside. His current ADP is worth the gamble. I wouldn’t give up a top 50-75 player for him in a keeper though.

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: weight loss – eliminate the soda all together, drink water, and eat more veggies and less meat/dairy.  Holla at Ben Clemens, he seems to have his diet on point.

Justin Mason: Thanks! I have lost 40 pounds since I started in late August. I am hoping to lose another 25-30 here in the next few months to get back to my high school weight before my 20-year reunion.

Justin Mason: Im old…

Kate: Had to choose between Evan Phillips and Dylan Floro in a SV+HLD/2 league.  Picked Floro given he was actually getting saves at the end of the year and I just can’t see the Dodgers going with a guy like Phillips in the closer role.  Did I make the right choice?

Justin Mason: I think that is probably about right. I think the Dodgers will bring someone in.

BenditlikeBendix: In dynasty, who do you like better: Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls, or Vidal Brujan?

Justin Mason: Ugh… I guess Brujan but all of these guys have massive flaws. Biggest is that they play on the Rays.

Kate: Seeing Ramon Laureano dropping WAY down rankings so far this offseason.  I know 2022 was not a good year for him, but that kind of power / speed blend doesn’t grow on trees.  Are people moving off of him too quickly?

Justin Mason: Probably. I think healthy is a real concern and I would prefer if him to get moved out of oakland

Lasorda Matata: Speaking of the Dodgers, do you think either Bobby Miller or Ryan Pepiot has a shot at a rotation spot this year?

Justin Mason: I think Pepiot will do what he did and be kind of a sixth man for the Dodgers. Miller has the chance to come up and stick. I like the upside and the Dodgers are not as deep in the rotation this year.

Insert Witty Name Here: My 20 year HS reunion is next year too! Absolutely not going, but going from social outcast/kid who sleeps all day to having a great job and family all these years later makes me feel like I lived Albert Pujols career!

Justin Mason: That is the perfect reason to go! Show them how much better you are than they are. Bring your fantasy baseball trophies with you and wear a cartoon picture of your face on your shirt!

Rickey: Reports that the A’s may give Puk a chance to start. A/ Do you think there’s a real chance he really will? And B/ How would you assess his chances of success/staying healthy if he does? Do you think this makes him a serious back-end rotation play?

Justin Mason: I love Puk and would definitely do this if I was them, but I think his future is high leverage reliever.

Justin Mason: Ok, I am going to end early because my kid is sick. I will be back next week.