Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – November 28st, 2022 by Justin Mason November 28, 2022 Here is my chat from today’s chat! 10:12 Justin Mason: Will be starting shortly. Just waiting for more questions. In the mean time, feel free to follow me on twitter, tiktok, and youtube at JustinMasonFWFB! 10:14 Max Mantis: No question, just saying hi and glad you’re doing FG chats, and thanks for all the great work. 10:15 Justin Mason: Thanks Max! I have wanted to get back into these, but it just took a while. Hopefully we will do them weekly at 1pm EST on Monday’s from here on out! 10:15 Maris: Will the Twins finally give the go to Duran to be the full-time closer? 10:16 Justin Mason: I tend to think they will bring someone else in. I think they like Duran as the high leverage guy so he will get saves, but I don’t think he will necessarily lead the team in the category. If he did, he would be a top 5-10 closer 10:17 Vince: Hi Justin! Have been playing in H2H, Roto Category, auction 10-12 tm for several years. However, league’s prevalent ‘dump trading’ has made a mockery of our $260 salary cap and my daily efforts at managiang my roster and the waiver wire. Any ideas on how I can find another roto auction league w competitive players and rules? 10:18 Justin Mason: There are some great facebook groups out there for fantasy baseball and often they are a good resource for finding or starting leagues. If you friend me on there, I can put you in a few 10:18 Guest: With so many players locked in long term deals in Atlanta will that affect their prospect draft strategy? If so, how? 10:20 Justin Mason: I don’t know that it will change their strategy much tbh. Why mess with what has worked so well for them. They will continue to be aggressive in the international market as well. They could prioritize more ready (polished college) arms to continue to build that rotation and bullpen, but it’s hard to see them go away from what works 10:21 Guest: Which Blake Snell do you expect to show up in 2023, the first half disaster or the second half excellence? 10:23 Justin Mason: Snell is a bit of an enigma. I am almost done with my first run of my pitcher projections and I have him for 130 innings, 9 win, 3.46 ERA, 1.19 WHIP. I want to believe in his talent but I also can’t buy into the innings. 10:23 LexGrassman: What do you think of Josh Lowe going forward? Swinging strike rate isn’t so bad to make me think he’s going to be useless. 10:25 Justin Mason: He needs to retool a lot before he can be an everyday MLB player. He just strikes out so much. Even when he was on fire in the minor from August through the end of the season, he struck out at a 34% clip. The Rays won’t put up with that. I wonder if he gets dealt like Nathaniel Lowe did. 10:25 Rickey: Do you think Doval is the Giants closer this year? How would you rank him among closers if you think there’s some uncertainty? 10:27 Justin Mason: I will have my closer ranks done in the next couple of days, but they will change radically as we get more news. Doval is a guy I am fading right now. Reportedly the Giants are looking at Kenley Jansen and it felt like they never really wanted to give Doval the job last year but were forced into it. 10:28 Justin: Looking to move Josiah Gray. Seems to be a bust thus far. What do you think is a fair return for him? 10:31 Justin Mason: Really depends on what type of league. I love Gray’s upside, but right now he is a bad version of Robbie Ray pre-breakout. I believe he has the stuff to have that breakout though. I would look for a similarly disappointing offensive player with upside. Right now he is going around Alek Thomas and Nolan Gorman in ADP. That maybe too rich of an ask, but I would start there and work down. 10:31 Kyle: When do you go to bed and when do you wake up normally? 10:32 Justin Mason: Kind of depends on the day. For instance, last night I was doing projections until 3am and got up at 6:30 to get my kids to school/daycare. Not all nights are like that, but there are probably more than there should be lol 10:32 Maris: NL only league. Would you keep Josh Rojas or Baty as a tenth keeper? Same price. 10:33 Justin Mason: If you are looking for upside and long term, I am going Baty. As much as I love Rojas, playing time may be an issue. 10:33 Matt: What do you think of Bryson Stott’s fantasy value in 2023? 10:35 Justin Mason: Really depends on what the Phillies do this offseason. I am afraid they add a shortstop and he becomes a utility guy. I think if you give him 600 plate appearances, he could go 15/15 with a .250-.260 average, but I am worried they will make a run at Turner, Correa, or Swanson 10:35 LexGrassman: Is this the time to sell high on Ohtani? 10:37 Justin Mason: Really depends on what format you play and what you can get. In a daily moves format where he is both a hitter and a pitcher, there is no player worth anywhere close to what he is. In a weekly moves where you have to chose, I can make the argument of selling him if I got a ton, but even that is hard to do. 10:37 Kate: The industry seems to be pretty down in Josh Bell after a terrible second half. This seems a bit premature (pending landing spot in FA). Guy makes a ton of contact and hits the ball very hard. Seems like an easy bounceback candidate (again assuming a good landing spot). Would you agree? 10:38 Justin Mason: Absolutely! I honestly don’t even care where he ends up as long as he has playing time. Dude showed he can hit in Pittsburgh, so I am not that worried about him hitting in most parks. I will take him at his current adp (192) all day. 10:38 406: What do you think of Jorge Polanco going forward? Just a matter of health? 10:40 Justin Mason: I think health is a big question mark, but I also worry that the Twins will start to rotate other options in especially if he struggles. Guys like Nick Gordon, Royce Lewis (if he is ever healthy), Luis Arraez, and Kyle Farmer will need places to play. 10:41 Kate: Assuming Rodolfo Castro can get something resembling full playing time this year, do you have any hopes for a breakout? The power / speed profile looks interesting, but can he make enough contact? 10:44 Justin Mason: I don’t know that I buy him as a guy that can keep long term playing time with his contact skills as they are. He had a putrid 80% z-contact )which would have put in him in the bottom 10 of qualified hitters if he had qualified) and a 15% swinging strikeout rate. As things stand right now, he should get some early run, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates bring in another Michael Chavis type or send him down/bench him if he continues to swing and miss. 10:44 Kate: What are the odds of Endy Rodriguez getting the call to PIT sometime early in 2023? Will the Buccos start to move their prospects a little faster now that the first wave has started reaching the majors? 10:45 Justin Mason: I think there is a good chance he is up pretty early. I don’t think the Pirates let him break camp with the team though. They are too money conscience and I learned my lesson with Cruz last year. He is probably up around Memorial Day 10:46 Kate: Is Bretty Baty the opening day 3B for the Mets? Or will he need to wait for an injury / underperformance from Escobar? 10:47 Justin Mason: I really hope he is. There is a chance he gets sent down to start the year, but they can always play Escobar at 2B. I think the Mets want to win and will let Baty play if they think he makes the team better. 10:47 Kate: Was Lance Lynn’s uneven 2022 simply a product of the injury? Do you expect him to be back to his mostly good self all year in 2023? The velo came back later in the year, but not really all the way to pre-2022 levels. 10:48 Justin Mason: I absolutely do think that. In the second half he was a top 25 pitcher and I have him pretty close to that in my projections. 10:49 Kate: With the Renfroe trade opening up a spot in the Milwaukee OF, how would you prioritize the Brewers’ high-minors OF prospects (i.e. Frelick, Ruiz, Wiemer, etc.)? 10:51 Justin Mason: A team like the Brewers think about money first unfortunately. So I think Garrett Mitchell gets first crack at things with Ruiz being on the roster out of camp. I like Frelich to come up first but neither he nor Weimer are on the 40-man, so unless the Brewer trade some guys away, there may be a wait. 10:51 Justin Mason: There have been rumors though that they are looking to move Wong and Tellez, so maybe that is part of the equation. 10:51 Kate: Will Spencer Steer and / or Will Brennan have full-time roles to start the year? Or will they need to hit / injury their way into a starting spot? 10:53 Justin Mason: I believe that both will. Both will have to hit to have a role worth drafting in most formats though. 10:53 Titio: I hate to ask this, but would it be crazy to trade Soto right now in dynasty if I can get a haul back? 10:55 Justin Mason: I would want a massive haul! That being said, I am always will to make deals on just about anyone if the price is right. I traded away at the end of 2021 in a long term keep league with contracts for Devers, LeMahieu, Santander, Carlos Colmanrez, and a couple of first rounders last year. I will probably regret it for ever, but I also was going for a title and was able to move those picks and prospect for even more to add to my team. 10:55 Kate: Does Kyle Muller need a trade to get another real shot at a rotation spot? Does he get moved this offseason? Or does Atlanta keep him around for depth? 10:57 Justin Mason: I think he stays with Atlanta. Can never have too much pitching depth and they just moved Odorizzi. With Soroka’s health and Morton’s age concerns, I don’t think they would move him. 10:58 Justin: I’m in a 15-team dynasty league. I was offered Bleday, A. Martin, and Nolan Jones for Gray. Was also offered Jairo Pomares, Isaiah Greene, and the 54th pick in 2023. 10:59 Justin Mason: I think I would do the deal for Bleday and Martin. Neither are likely stars, but both should be valuable 15-team pieces. 10:59 Justin Mason: I assume that was Josiah Gray and not Jon or Sonny 10:59 Kate: BTW stumbled upon Nick Pollack’s “Nick Pollack and Friends” podcast series recently and listened to the episodes with you and Sporer. Really enjoyed learning more about you guys! Had to laugh at the idea of Sporer managing a Jamba Juice franchise haha! 11:00 Justin Mason: Thanks! Nick is a great friend and he is always a blast to talk to in that kind of setting. I told him at FPAZ that I want to do it again. 11:00 Titio: With deGrom’s health and age, it’s not crazy to move him for a stable younger piece, is it? Say, Framber Valdez? (dynasty league) 11:00 Justin Mason: It is not crazy, but I have a hard time giving him up for just Framber and I am probably the biggest Framber guy in the industry. 11:01 Chip Locke: In a $135 NL-Only league I have both McCarthy and Meneses keepable at $11 (FAs are $10 and prices go up 10% each year). My plan is to shop them around and see what I can get for each, but are either of these going to generate value at that price do you think? Would they be worth keeping if I don’t find a good buyer, or should I just cut bait and see what they cost in the auction? 11:02 Justin Mason: In an NL only, I think you definitely keep them if you don’t find buyers. I am not as big on them as Steamer is but they should play a lot and should recoup most of that unless they completely fall apart. 11:02 TheLaserShow: Is Rasmussen just a drop in the pan or can he keep this up? 11:03 Justin Mason: I absolutely think he can keep this up. I think the big question is will the Rays allow him to go deep enough into games to really make him an SP 2? That is a tough question. They started at the end of the season… 11:03 Justin: What do you think of Wilson Contreras’ worth in a two-catcher, 15-team dynasty league? 11:04 Justin Mason: I think he is extremely underrated this season. I know some people will fade him with other options emerging and his going to a new park/team, but there is almost no catcher as safe as him and wherever he goes, he is likely getting a team upgrade. 11:05 Matthew: We’re on year 17 of a keeper league, but it’s falling apart because too many guys don’t have the time to do daily roto. Have you ever changed league rules from roto to weekly H2H? Anything to keep in mind to keep the league fun/balanced? 11:07 Justin Mason: That is a big move. Have you thought about moving to weekly roto? If you do move to weekly H2H, don’t load up with a ton of extra categories. Doing that makes it more like a points league. Stick with a 5×5 or a 6×6. The most important thing is that as many people being on board as possible. Sometimes leagues go through down periods. As long as it is fun, you guys will make it work. 11:07 Travis: Can you tell us a little about how you do your in-season research, in terms of tools/process? I’d love to know how an expert’s workflow looks. 11:10 Justin Mason: So I start my ranks in August/September of the previous season. I want to get my initial thoughts before others have ranks or projections out so I have my own baseline. I then start full projections in October, but this year I was a little late. Once ADP, others ranks and projections are out, I am reading everything I can. I am looking for where my ranks and projections are completely different to challenge myself to do deep dives on whether I think the market is right or I am. At the same time, I am doing article for the site and podcasts that shape what I think. I did an Offseason Checklist article recently that goes into more detail 11:11 Gary: Twins going to give Ober enough starts to be fantasy relevant in 12 team mixed? The guy seems to deal when given opportunities. 11:11 Justin Mason: I really hope so. I projected him for 125 innings last night but they are a really good 125 innings. I am a big fan. 11:12 Kate: How confident are you that Hunter Brown will find his way into Houston’s starting rotation permanently at some point this year? I was thinking Verlander would almost certainly return (which would have made him 7th in line for the rotation), but it seems like maybe that’s not the slam dunk I thought it was? 11:14 Justin Mason: I do think Verlander is back, but there is no reason why Brown can’t bump out Urquidy and McCullers is no guarantee to stay healthy. I think he is a long term play this year, so it really depends on your format. Can you stash him for a while? These things often work themselves out. 11:14 bushupking: Do you buy the injury-prone label on Santander? 11:15 Justin Mason: I do not. He played in 152 games in 2022. I don’t think there is much reason to think he can’t play in 140-150 this year especially with how much they DH him. 11:15 Identity Theft Isn’t Funny: Should I be selling Mike Trout in dynasty now before the injuries ruin all his value? 11:16 Justin Mason: That is tough because he is still a beast when he is on the field. I would want a pretty nice return, but I can see the argument for a 31 year old that has missed a lot of time. 11:17 Aloha: Aloha! Do you think Trent Grisham is poised for a big breakout season this year? 11:19 Justin Mason: Probably not unless we see a complete approach change. He needs to get more aggressive in the zone. If he does that and keeps the exit velocity gains, then maybe. I think he is worth the price right now. 11:20 Justin Mason: I think I talk myself into Grisham every time I discuss him lol. Like Charlie Brown kicking a football 11:20 Justin: Speaking of McCullers, what is his value? He’s overpriced in my league ($21) and due for an extension. 11:20 Justin Mason: I projected him for 130 innings for 2023. They aren’t bad innings, but I think there is so much risk. 11:21 Sierra: Better buy low Chi Sox candidate – Robert or Moncada? 11:21 Justin Mason: Robert 11:21 Johnny5Alive: Someone on twitter floated Devers to NYM for Baty, Tidwell, and Morabito. While I think its a little rich for 1 year of Devers, would you do, say, Baty for Devers straight up? Would either team? 11:22 Justin Mason: I wouldn’t be surprised if both would do it. If Boston doesn’t think they can resign him, do they want to lose him like they are Bogaerts? I think the Mets would sell their soul for a championship at this point. 11:23 Justin Mason: Alright everyone, thanks for chatting with me. Feel free to follow me on twitter, tiktok, and youtube at JustinMasonFWFB and hit me up with more questions!