Dear Disengaged Owner,
This has been hard for you in the past, but please read carefully. Today, we are officially ending our relationship.
I wish I could say it’s been fun, but I think we both know this is long overdue. As good as your original intentions may have been when you first joined our league, this is no longer meant to be. But don’t worry, it’s not me, it’s you.
Very Quick Look: Doug Fister
I’m skeptical but intrigued by older pitchers making a comeback. An owner could end up with Rich Hill or Jeremy Guthrie. I was extremely skeptical of Fister especially after the Angels, who could use some pitching help, released him.
Very Quick Look: Tyson Ross
Tyson Ross made one start and his results seem acceptable with a 7.9 K/9 and a 3.18 ERA. Beyond those two stats, his line gets ugly. His fastball velocity is down to 90.1 mph which is ~2.5 mph less than last season and ~4.5 mph off his career peak. He walked three batters in only 5.1 innings of work. His swinging strike rate was just 5.3% which would be a career low.
With the mixed signals, I decided to take a quick look at his start.
• He started off the game with two pitches way outside and walked the first batter. This at bat set the tone for the rest of the game.
On Friday the Blue Jays called up Anthony Alford. The move surprised me since he struggled in 2016 with a 29% K% in High-A. He was doing better in Double-A this season (17K%, .393 wOBA) but I figured he would follow a progressive advancement with a Tripe-A stint.
Here’s a quick dive into what we know about his possible production. First here are his available prospect grades.
| Source | Year | Batting | Power (Raw/Game) | Speed | Defense | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanGraphs | 2017 | 40 | 60/50 | 70 | 55 | 40 |
| MLB | 2017 | 50 | 50 | 70 | 60 | 45 |
| MLB | 2016 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 45 |
| MLB | 2015 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 55 |
| BA | 2017 | 60 | 50 | 60 | 55 | 40 |
| BA | 2016 | 60 | 45 | 70 | 60 | 40 |
Quick Look: Zack Godley
I’ve had my eye on Godley since spring training when his velocity climbed up a couple ticks. It has stayed up and so has his production. The following is a take on the 27-year-old’s most recent start.
I’m stuck using Arizona’s bad camera angle since all his starts have been at home so far this season. Sorry, it’s far from the best view.
• Sinker(Fastball): 90 to 93 mph with release-side run with some late sink. It’s kind of a unique pitch with all the ground balls and limited sink. It won’t get many swings-and-misses (3% on the season) because of the limited break.
Tout Wars Outfield
I knew coming into the season, my Tout Wars outfield would not be the strongest. Usually, I wait on outfielders until they become great values which happen around the $15 mark. The only outfielder I send more than $15 on was Jose Ramirez and he is now at second base with Logan Forsythe on the DL. I need to start four these five with Bellinger taking the other outfield slot.
| Name | Cost | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | $12 | 33 | 139 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 10.1% | 25.2% | 0.205 | 0.297 | 0.270 | 0.066 | 0.279 |
| Kole Calhoun | $8 | 32 | 138 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.248 | 0.319 | 0.384 | 0.136 | 0.287 |
| Carlos Beltran | $1 | 30 | 121 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2.5% | 24.8% | 0.243 | 0.273 | 0.357 | 0.113 | 0.310 |
| Jayson Werth | R | 27 | 110 | 5 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 11.8% | 27.3% | 0.292 | 0.382 | 0.479 | 0.188 | 0.377 |
| Steven Souza Jr. | R | 31 | 136 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 13.2% | 27.9% | 0.284 | 0.385 | 0.457 | 0.172 | 0.392 |
Beltran is easily the odd man out. The 40-year-old had a decent 2016 season with 29 home runs and a .295 AVG (.337 OBP). This year his ability to make contact is gone dropping from 83% to a career low 74%. The lack of contact has driven his K% to 25% (first time over 20%) and his BB% down to 2.5%.
Cody Bellinger’s Outfield Defense
As long as Adrian Gonzalez can physically take the field, Cody Bellinger will not be the Dodgers regular first baseman. He will need to be able to play the outfield until the Dodgers part ways with Gonzalez. To find out if Bellinger has what it takes to play the outfield, I will break down his physical traits. here are his available scouting grades.
First, here are his available scouting grades.
| Year | Source | Hit | Power | Run | Field | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | FG | 45 | 70 | 40 | 70 | 60 |
| 2016 | BA | 55 | 60 | 55 | 60 | 50 |
| 2017 | BA | 60 | 70 | 50 | 70 | 60 |
| 2014 | MLB | 55 | 45 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
| 2015 | MLB | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
| 2016 | MLB | 50 | 55 | 50 | 60 | 50 |
| 2017 | MLB | 55 | 65 | 45 | 70 | 55 |
Current Trade Value: Eric Thames
The industry’s “Buy Low/Sell High” talk frustrates me because 90% of the time no context is given. Owners should expect to get some players at a discount but what are the player’s owners expecting and valuing in a rebound.
Ryan Zimmerman seems to be a sell high candidate. He’s having a great season with a .420 AVG and 11 HR. Pretty much everyone expects him to regress. But how much regression? Don’t guess. Do a little research and see how other fantasy owners value him by checking on actual trades.
The best source I’ve found to track 1-for-1 trades is Yahoo’s Trade Market. The site has a major limitation: only trades from that day are listed so it’s best to check in the evening. I will do a quick analysis of the league’s other hot hitter, Eric Thames.
Yesterday, I found Thames was traded straight up for Aroldis Chapman, Khris Davis, and Stephen Strasburg. Thames’s ADP was 182 or around a 15 round value. The other three had ADPs of 46 (Chapman), 50 (Strasburg), and 102 (Davis). They average out to around 66 with the two 50’s pointing to a possible higher value.
The players taken around 66 overall were Kyle Seager, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Carrasco, and Kyle Hendricks. Good but not elite players. It’s still a huge move up for Thames.
Quick Look: Jordan Montgomery
Montgomery is probably getting a little more press than the average 24-year-old mildly-touted pitching prospect because he’s a Yankee. I decided to see what is behind the hype by watching yesterday’s start.
• He’s a left-handed pitcher with a high 3/4 arm slot and pitches straight to home. No weird left-handed pitcher angles going on here.
• Fastball (Four-seam: 30, 2-seam: 50): He has a two and four-season fastball which both sit at 89-92 mph. He’s able to command both of them around the plate, but the two-seamer should perform better. It has some nice late life as seen here.
Creating Launch Angle from Batted Ball Data
While going over the minor league groundball leaderboard yesterday, this group of hitters intrigued me.
Those last five hitters are known for their power and mainly hit line drives or flyballs. I need to run a quick study to find out.
I took all MLB hitters from 2015 and 2016 and compared their corrected launch angle (from StatCast) to their groundball numbers (from Baseball Info Solutions). Here’s the graph (min 100 balls in play).
Note: Ryan Schimpf is the outlier with a 26-degree launch angle.
