Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Montgomery & Cueto

Quick Look: Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery is probably getting a little more press than the average 24-year-old mildly-touted pitching prospect because he’s a Yankee. I decided to see what is behind the hype by watching yesterday’s start.

• He’s a left-handed pitcher with a high 3/4 arm slot and pitches straight to home. No weird left-handed pitcher angles going on here.

• Fastball (Four-seam: 30, 2-seam: 50): He has a two and four-season fastball which both sit at 89-92 mph. He’s able to command both of them around the plate, but the two-seamer should perform better. It has some nice late life as seen here.

Two-Seam fastball

His four-seamer isn’t any faster and is just straight.

I’m not surprised hitters are posting a .467 ISO against it.

• Change (40):  82-85 mph. Sometimes he had a nice 12-6 late drop and other times he hung it to get crushed. This pitch was considered his best in old scouting reports but it was not effective in the game I watched (24% SwStr% on the season). This is one of his better ones.

• Curveball (50+): 76-81 mph with a nice 12-6 standard break. The pitch can get loopy at times if he throws it too slow. He could throw if for strike and had no problems starting a hitter off with it as he did here to David Freese

• Cutter/Slider (50): 82-86 mph with drop and glove-side run. This pitch is the new difference maker which has improved his prospect status. It’s not a devastating slider but it gives him another wrinkle to his arsenal.

• One issue he kept dealing with was giving away breaking pitches way out of the zone. He wasn’t consistent with the break on his slider and change. If he wants to be an above average major leaguer, he is going to need to be more consistent with these pitches.

Overall, I am buying him especially in keeper or dynasty leagues. With four decent pitches, he has a nice floor. If he drops the anemic four-seamer and focuses on refining the breaking pitches, he could fit into the mold of a Julio Teheran or Kyle Hendricks. None of the three have elite fastball velocity but they do have good control and above average breaking pitches thereby making them viable #2 or #3 fantasy options.

 

Johnny Cueto: Injured?

I about ignored Cueto when he showed up on my injury finder. Cueto is probably the most inconsistent starter in the league and he uses it to his advantage. The inconsistencies make finding changes almost impossible with him but some are showing up.

First, his velocity is down on all his pitches by about 2 mph.

Besides the velocity loss, his fastball spin is down 200 rpm.

The drop has been the most over the past two games where Cueto has posted a 6.00 ERA with a 5.2 K/9. It would be tough to sit Cueto this week but monitor his velocity and spin rate for a rebound.

 

Notes

• Players I picked up in my “expert” leagues.

Tout Wars (15-team mixed)

I had one opening on my team with Logan Forsythe headed to the DL. No hitter interested me with Logan Morrison or J.J. Hardy being the best available options. Instead, I filled the vacant hitting slot from my bench and went closer searching. I owned Blake Treinen and decide to dig for a third Save option. I could lose either of my closers (Giles or Ramos) to poor performance or injury at any time. Additionally, if I don’t need the extra closer, I can always trade him off.

This week, I but bids on Justin Wilson, Arodys Vizcaino, and Koda Glover and ended up with Wilson. I am glad to end up with Wilson because Francisco Rodriguez seems to be struggling as the Tigers’ closer. Here is a 2017 comparison of the pair.

Comparing Tiger Closers
Name ERA FIP K/9 Fbv
Justin Wilson 0.00 1.17 12.5 96 mph
Francisco Rodriguez 5.87 6.68 9.4 88 mph

I’ll gladly take a chance on Wilson. Actually, I am taking a chance on Rodriguez imploding.

 

TDGX (20-team, 40-man rosters)

I lost Logan Forsythe (again) in this league along with Paulo Orlando. Regular everyday players don’t exist on the waiver wire (except catchers with only 1 catcher slot) so even most bench players are owned. I picked up Mac Williamson who is just finishing up his minor league rehab assignment and hopefully replacing Mike Morse while Jarrett Parker is on the DL. Normally, prospects are the news with this league but none seemed worth picking up so I went reaching.

Now, while trying to find any breakout prospects, I came across Max Moroff. His triple slash line is an amazing: .203/.299/.525. He’s had 12 hits with four doubles and five home runs. Right now his .322 ISO is higher than his batting average.

While he may be hitting like a corner bat, he’s playing shortstop for the Pirates Triple-A team in Indianapolis. Not many sources tab Moroff with this much power. MLB.com had his power at 35-grade. Baseball America says he has “moderate power”. And our own Eric Longenhagen describes him as an “up-and-down utility man”. I was intrigued by any changes in Moroff might have made but I came up empty on a quick internet search.

Albert Pujols and Danny Espinosa are struggling this year with the Angels. Both have changed their approach and need to make improvements to turn their seasons around.

Currently. Pujols’s groundball rate stands at 49%, a career high. Pujols can’t be putting the ball on the ground 50% of the time and still be effective. He needs to find a way to loft the ball more.

Espinoza has decided to go on full hack mode with a near career high swing rate (54%). The swing rate wouldn’t cause any problems but he is only making contact 59% of the time. The combination has led to a 38% K%. Espinosa can at least say he’s not striking out as much as Byron Buxton (47%).





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Thorbs11
6 years ago

Could Cueto’s velo be a result of his preseason issues with his father’s sickness?