Mixing & Fantasy: Fister, Barreto, & More

Very Quick Look: Doug Fister

I’m skeptical but intrigued by older pitchers making a comeback. An owner could end up with Rich Hill or Jeremy Guthrie. I was extremely skeptical of Fister especially after the Angels, who could use some pitching help, released him.

At least Fister ended up with the Red Sox who helped rejuvenate Rich Hill’s career. Fister made his first start last night and here is what can be taken from it. I didn’t watch much of the start, just some highlights.

First, his fastball velocity may be up compared to the past few seasons. Here is a yearly velocity chart from BrooksBaseball.net (who adjust velocity to similar scales).

His 4-seamer and cutter were at similar velocities but his sinker has added a few ticks. He threw his sinker 2/3 of the time and generated over 50% groundballs off the pitch and over 6% swinging strikes. Here’s one.

The sinker comes in at about 90 mph with a groundball generating late dip.

Fister also showed off a change, curveball, and slider with good results. Here they are in my order of preference.

Curve

Slider

Change

Right now, I believe he is usable in all formats. His future value will depend on his fastball’s (sinker) effectiveness. If he can get ahead in the count, he has the breaking pitches to put hitters away. For those who are still skeptical, why not buy and bench and see how his next few starts go.

 

Notes

• In Tout Wars, I drafted Cody Bellinger in the reserve rounds knowing he was one of the few prospects with enough talent to really make an impact in 2017. I had no idea he would hit this many home runs so far. I would have been happy with 20 for the entire season.

Every week I look over my roster and try to find if there is anyone to sell high on and Bellinger has been that player for a while. Going to Yahoo!’s trade tracker, I found just three one-for-one trades with Bellinger. He was able to net Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and Mookie Betts. While I’m near the top in Runs, Home Runs, and RBIs, I could easily lose 10 spots with just a few unproductive days, so I would need to bring hitting back a hitter if I move Bellinger.

If offered Betts, I would accept that trade in a heartbeat. Move down, I think I would take any of the preseason top 25 hitters depending on my team needs. It’s just tough to move someone hitting as well as he has.

Placing a value on Bellinger (and also Judge) will be tough next season. I like his future’s but do I like him more than everyone else at the table. I am guessing, no. It was nice to have him this season so far.

• The Athletics have continued their rookie promotions and this time Franklin Barreto got the call. The 21-year-old second baseman doesn’t have one carrying skill but he grades above average in the three main fantasy-relevant categories, Speed, Power, and Hit. Here are some comparable prospects to him.

Some nice comparables at the top (Moncada, Meadows, Benintendi) which make is future look bright. He’s probably a must own in all but the shallowest of leagues.

• I like Stephen Vogt’s value after signing with the Brewers. I feel his value may be limited at first as he gets acclimated with the Brewer pitchers. I’d sit him this week and probably next and then his role/playing time will clear up.

• Homer Bailey made his first start of the season and his fastball velocity was near a career high (93.8 mph). That’s it for the good news. He registered just five outs while giving up eight runs on six hits and three walks. He had almost no control. I’ll let his manager explain:

“The command and location in and around the zone wasn’t very good,” Reds manager Bryan Price told reporters in Washington. “He was certainly a lot more acute in his Minor League outings. There were a lot of misses that ended up being very good pitches to hit and they didn’t miss them. It’s really nothing more than that. It just wasn’t very good pitch execution today.”

• For those owners in Only leagues who lose their traded players at the trade deadline, here is MLBTraderumors.com current list of the fifty players most likely to be moved.

1. David Robertson, RH Reliever, White Sox (LR: 1): The results are still there, though Robertson doesn’t carry the same kind of lock-down profile that several top relief trade candidates did last summer. Still, he’s an obvious trade piece for the White Sox and continues to hold down the top spot.
2. J.D. Martinez, OF, Tigers (LR: 14): The Tigers are streaking in the wrong direction, and Martinez is doing the opposite. He’d be an impact rental bat for any lineup and isn’t even all that expensive.
3. Pat Neshek, RH Reliever, Phillies (LR: 4): He hasn’t allowed a run since mid-May and could be the likeliest pitcher in all of baseball to be traded.

Owners may look to move or pick up some of these players now.

• Adam Wainwright is throwing slower to be more effective.

Video offered the clue. As Wainwright watched, he saw a pitcher trying too hard to generate velocity and, as a result, sacrificing sound mechanics. Wainwright took that observation to the mirror, where he then worked to get his delivery and motion back in sync. He sought simplicity and likened the motion to playing darts.

His fastball velocity is definitely down.

Owners will have to see if this intentional velocity drop will make him a better and more consistent pitcher.

• Rubby de la Rosa is back in the majors and throwing bullets (98 mph) and striking out three of the five batters he has faced. He may not be a useful fantasy asset for a while though.

“Rubby will be asked to come into the game in some low-leverage situations,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said when asked how De La Rosa will be used. “We’re going to integrate him slowly, the best that we can. For right now we’re going to make sure that we don’t ask him to do anything more than he’s ready to do. I just think there’s this natural tendency to get back to this level that he’s worked so hard to get back to, and maybe do too much.”

He won’t be in line for Saves or Holds initially but he is probably the best arm in the Diamondbacks bullpen so he should move up quickly.