Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Beltran, Kiermaier, & Gray

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May 8, 2017

Tout Wars Outfield

I knew coming into the season, my Tout Wars outfield would not be the strongest. Usually, I wait on outfielders until they become great values which happen around the $15 mark. The only outfielder I send more than $15 on was Jose Ramirez and he is now at second base with Logan Forsythe on the DL. I need to start four these five with Bellinger taking the other outfield slot.

Tout Wars Outfield Options
Name Cost G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP
Kevin Kiermaier $12 33 139 1 15 6 5 10.1% 25.2% 0.205 0.297 0.270 0.066 0.279
Kole Calhoun $8 32 138 4 17 11 0 8.0% 19.6% 0.248 0.319 0.384 0.136 0.287
Carlos Beltran $1 30 121 2 12 10 0 2.5% 24.8% 0.243 0.273 0.357 0.113 0.310
Jayson Werth R 27 110 5 18 10 3 11.8% 27.3% 0.292 0.382 0.479 0.188 0.377
Steven Souza Jr. R 31 136 4 14 19 0 13.2% 27.9% 0.284 0.385 0.457 0.172 0.392

Beltran is easily the odd man out. The 40-year-old had a decent 2016 season with 29 home runs and a .295 AVG (.337 OBP). This year his ability to make contact is gone dropping from 83% to a career low 74%. The lack of contact has driven his K% to 25% (first time over 20%) and his BB% down to 2.5%.

Besides the lack of plate discipline, his has an ugly batted ball profile. Groundball percentage is a career high (48%). His home per flyball rate is a career low (7%). His hard-hit rate is a career low (24%).

Beltran didn’t have much of a future left in the league. Even taking into account some regression from 2016, I expected him to be performing better. For now, he moving to my bench. I don’t see many startable options on the waiver (Note: All Tout Wars waiver wire pickups must be started in their first week owned). The best free agent options are Matt Joyce, Tyler Collins, Andrew Romine, and Jace Peterson. I think I’ll hope for a Beltran turnaround, but he may be gone once Forsythe comes back from the DL.

The other major s(t)ink on my team has been Kevin Kiermaier. At least the league is an OBP league and the .205 AVG isn’t totally killing my team. So far in May, he’s had as many walks (3) as hits for a .136 AVG.

The AVG is down because his strikeouts are up. Pitchers pounding him with fastballs (53% to 60%) has caused the jump. He can’t seem to make solid contact with the heater (11.3% SwStr%, league average swinging strike rate for all pitch types is 10.3%). I don’t know how much I can expect him to turn it around. Pitchers are going to keep throwing him fastballs. He needs to be able to hit them.

Additionally, he has a 58% GB%. I don’t know if this increase (the league’s 7th highest value) is from weak contact on the fastballs or a swing path change. Either way, some more power would be nice.

I was hoping for around 10 home runs and 30 steals from him. Right now he is on pace for ~25 SB which is reasonable. I will need to continue to play him for the stolen bases but if the right power-for-speed trade some along, I would gladly move him.

I am not elated to be starting Calhoun, Werth, and Souza but at least their OBP is over .300 and they are putting up acceptable counting stats. I may need to be aggressive once Super-2 passes and more prospects are called up.

Notes:

• Sonny Gray has made two starts since returning from the DL. He’s basically been the same pitcher as previous seasons. Here are his seasonal adjusted average fastball velocities (BrooksBaseball.net who adjusts velocity), swinging strike rates, and ground ball rates.

Sonny Gray Over the Years
Year 4-seam Sinker SwStr% GB%
2013 94.5 94.1 9.6% 53%
2014 94.4 94.0 8.9% 56%
2015 94.2 94.0 9.7% 53%
2016 93.7 93.6 8.0% 54%
2017 94.0 93.8 9.1% 55%

I would expect his ’17 numbers to be close to his career numbers of 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 3.50 ERA.

• The Cardinals called up Magneuris Sierra this weekend. Here are the players with similar grades to the 21-year-old lefty.

Prospects With Similar Grades to Magneuris Sierra
Name Year Report Publication Batting Power Speed Defense Arm
Magneuris Sierra 2017 MLB 50 30 60 60 60
Orlando Arcia 2015 MLB 50 35 55 60 60
Ronnie Jebavy 2016 2080 45 30 55 60 55
Orlando Arcia 2015 BA 50 40 60 60 60
Amed Rosario 2016 BA 50 40 60 60 60
Tyler Wade 2016 2080 50 30 60 55 50
Nick Gordon 2014 MLB 55 40 60 60 60
Nick Gordon 2015 MLB 55 40 60 60 60
Delvin Perez 2017 MLB 50 40 65 60 60
Drew Jackson 2016 2080 55 30 60 60 70
Reymond Fuentes 2014 MLB 45 30 65 60 50
Gavin Cecchini 2014 MLB 50 30 50 55 55
Tyler Naquin 2014 MLB 55 40 60 55 60
J.P. Crawford 2014 MLB 55 40 55 60 60
Ketel Marte 2014 MLB 45 30 65 55 50
Ryan Brett 2015 MLB 50 30 60 50 50
Jose Peraza 2014 MLB 50 30 70 60 50
Gavin Cecchini 2016 MLB 55 35 50 55 55
Erick Mejia 2016 2080 40 30 60 50 60
Nick Gordon 2016 MLB 60 30 50 60 60
Hak-Ju Lee 2013 MLB 50 30 70 70 60

No one great hitters but some have shown some speed. This group tends to stay in the lineup with their good defensive skills so he could be a deep-league only option.

• Two pitchers, Mike Foltynewicz and Michael Pineda, saw their fastball velocity drop 3 mph on Friday.

 

Foltynewicz

Pineda

I am more concerned with Fotltynewicz since he has struggled more with his control (3.3 BB/9) and home runs (1.5 HR/9). I’d sit him if I owned him.

Pineda will be tough sit for this week. He was still effective with the lower velocity.

Closely monitor both their next starts for a velocity rebound.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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southie
6 years ago

I feel your KK pain. My lord he’s been slumping. At one point he looked like a new hitter running a 120+ wrc but this is a slump of slumps. He is something like 1 for 55 right now. I am holding out moderate hope but he is almost a guaranteed out. I’ve watched nearly every AB and he is absolutely lost. He cannot make contact with the heater.

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