For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Any early-season concerns about Rivera’s mortality are decidedly in the rearview mirror, as the Hammer of God has not given up a run since June 12th (a stretch of 14.2 innings). His K/BB ratio is an obscene 45/4 in 41.1 innings, and the run value on Rivera’s cutter (currently +2.29 per 100 pitches) climbs by the appearance. Mo’s XFIP (based on BB’s, K’s and a normalized HR/FB ratio) is 2.20. That’s the fourth straight season that his XFIP has decreased.

Joe Nathan, Twins

How good has Nathan been in 2009? The 2 runs he gave up in a blown save op vs. the Angels on July 23rd were the first tallies against him since May 15th. Joe has whiffed 10.8 batters per nine innings, while posting the lowest walk rate (1.88 BB/9) of his career. Nathan is generating his highest percentage of outside swings we have on record dating back to 2002 (32.7%), and all three of his pitches are decimating hitters. Whether he chucks a 94 MPH fastball (+3.25 runs/100), 88 MPH slider (+2.08) or 82 MPH curve (+2.62), the end result is the same: the batter ain’t getting on base.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Cliff Notes version of Kansas City’s second half: Royals lose a lot, Soria doesn’t pitch enough. K.C. blows several 8th-inning leads while leaving the club’s best ‘pen arm to flick sunflower seeds and drink Gatorade. In another example of why using your best reliever only when he can earn a “SV” next to his name is shoddy strategy, Soria has tossed 7 innings this month. Roman Colon, Juan Cruz, Ron Mahay and Jamey Wright have all gotten more work in July. Huh? When Joakim has taken the mound, he has been his customary dominant self (1 R, 9 K, 0 walks).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

While under the weather (flu), Papelbon has turned in his finest month of the season. The 28 year-old has punched out 8 batters in 7 innings, with 1 walk and 1 run allowed. Uncharacteristically wild in the early going, Papelbon has pounded the zone as of late:

Zone%, by month:

April: 48.1%
May: 46%
June: 54.1%
July: 59%

Not coincidentally, Papelbon’s mid-90’s gas has been as its best in July (+4.97 Runs/100). It’s beginning to look like Boston’s stopper is back to his old dominant self.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks has turned in a bumpy July. In 6 innings, he has allowed 10 hits, 6 runs and 4 base on balls. His K/BB ratio (3.5) is still well ahead of last year’s pace (2.24), and there appears to be little chance of anyone overtaking Bobby as he works out the kinks in his delivery. Pale Hose skipper Ozzie Guillen, uh, made that pretty clear recently:

“Wow, what did this kid do to this town to make people treat him like that? He’s my closer, and if people don’t want him to be my closer, don’t come to the [bleeping] game.” (chicagotribune.com)

J.P. Howell, Rays

Apparently entrenched as Tampa’s closer, Howell will only climb this list in the weeks to come. J.P. tossed 13 scoreless frames in June, and has made 6 spotless appearances out of seven this month (a 3-run hiccup vs. the A’s on the 12th being the exception). Howell is an odd bird as a closer, but just because he doesn’t fit the fire-breathing archetype doesn’t mean he can’t wipe the floor with hitters. His oft-used curveball (+2.44 runs/100) and changeup (+3.67) have been superb, and that mid-80’s fastball is certainly holding its own (+1.16).

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has given up runs and taken losses in back-to-back appearances (on the 19th and the 21st), but he otherwise has enjoyed another stellar month (12 K, 2 BB, 6 H in 10.1 IP). The rookie righty sports rates of 10.48 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9. His 68.4 percent contact rate is the 6th-lowest among all relievers (teammate Mike Wuertz, at a stunning 56.5%, leads all ‘pen arms).

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t coughed up a run since May, a run of 16 innings in which he has K’d 17 and walked five. The first-year Angel has posted the lowest walk rate (2.78 BB/9) of his career, though I’m not entirely sure how, to be honest. He’s not generating a bunch of outside swings (24%, one percent below the MLB avg), his Zone% is down (47.8%, 52.1% career average) and so is his First-Pitch Strike % (53.8%, 56.4% career average).

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Activated from the DL before the All-Star break, Downs returns to the closer’s role with little competition. He has whiffed a career-best 9.49 per nine innings in 2009, relying heavily on opposing batters getting themselves out by expanding their strike zones (34.2 O-Swing%, nearly 12 percent above his career rate). Like Howell, Downs is another example of a guy getting power-pitcher’s results with movement and deception. Downs’ pitches don’t sizzle, but his 90 MPH fastball has a ton of tailing action (10.6 inches; the avg, lefty fastball has 6.4 inches of tail) and his 76 MPH curve features plenty of sweeping (7.5 inches) and dropping (7.3 inches) movement.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Believe it or not, Aardsma hasn’t actually exhibited bad control over the past two months. Since the beginning of June, the former Giant, White Sock, Cub and Red Sock has a 29/7 K/BB in 22 frames. His Zone% for the season is up to 49.7% (including 56 percent in July), which is slightly above the league average, and his BB/9 is back under five. Aardsma has typically walked the yard during the course of his career and his BABIP (.256) is on the low side. But as a flyball pitcher, behind great defenders, in a pitcher’s park, he’s in the perfect situation.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Kerry has turned in an adequate July, with 3 runs, 8 K’s and 2 walks in 7.1 innings. Saves have come few and far between for the also-ran Indians (Wood has 13 on the year), though the Texan is at least generating more outside swings of late. Wood has a paltry 20.7 Outside-Swing% for the year (over 10 percent below his 2008 rate), though that mark is up to 31.5% this month.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill went on a tear in June (11 IP, 1 R, 8/2 K/BB), but his July performance has been milder (7.2 IP, 4 R, 9/4 K/BB). The 32 year-old would appear to be a prime trade candidate for the O’s, who are still likely two years away from mounting any kind of serious threat to the beasts of the A.L. East. His walk rate (2.97 BB/9) is a career-low, and his 64 First-Pitch Strike% is the highest of his big league tenure.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on the DL yet again, this time with pneumonia)

With the thrice-D.L.’ed Francisco yet again unavailable, Wilson will pick up the save chances. The 28 year-old southpaw is still a little on the wild side (45.9 Zone%, compared to the 49.3 MLB average), but he has reigned in his walk rate from 2008’s unacceptable 5.24 to this year’s 3.77 mark by virtue of getting more swings outside of the zone. Wilson has also generated more grounders (56.3%, 49.3 in 2008). He’s not a great reliever, but there are certainly worse options out there.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Rodney moves up into “In Control” status, due to a combination of good pitching and Zumaya’s shoulder going “boom” yet again. In 7 July innings, Fernando has allowed 1 run, with 8 K’s and 3 walks. With 4.28 BB/9 and just 47.5% of his pitches thrown within the zone, Rodney is still something of an adventure in the late innings.

Watch Your Back

No one, at the moment.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Overall, Broxton has been downright Gagne-esque in 2009. He has whiffed fourteen and a half hitters per nine innings, has the fourth-best WPA (2.87) among relievers and shuts the door for the best team (by far) in the National League.

But not all is well in Mannywood. Unfortunately, Broxton is suffering from a big toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels will linger for the duration of the season. Big Jon had a rough couple of outings prior to the All-Star break (5 R, 5 H and 4 BB in 2 IP on the 5th and the 10th), and he walked two in his first post All-Star appearance. However, he has turned in three spotless appearances since, including saves vs. the Astros on the 19th and the Reds on the 20th.

Going forward, Broxton should still be plenty dominant. But his first-half reign of terror is not something we should expect over a long period of time from any reliever, bum toe or not.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell finally surrendered a home run this week, as Florida’s Chris Coghlan took him deep in a non-save situation on the 22nd. Heath hasn’t had the tidiest of months (4 R, 8 H in 5.2 IP), but he holds one of the top 10 WPA marks in the majors (2.49), with an increase in K/9 from 9.19 in 2008 to 10.53 in 2009 (a career-high). The uptick in punch outs seems to have come at the expense of some control: his walk rate is up to career-high 3.43 per nine frames (the 4th-straight year that it has increased). His percentage of pitches in the zone over that period has gone from 54.6% in ’06 to 47.7% this year (49.3% MLB average).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman collected a save against the Reds on the 16th and the Pirates on the 21st, giving him 22 on the year. Trevor has yet to be taken deep in 28.1 frames.

While he’s obviously been fortunate in that regard, the extreme flyball hurler (34.6 GB% since 2002) has generated grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip in 2009. Looking at Hoffman’s Pitch F/X data, his fastball and changeup have both shown two inches less vertical movement this season. Take a look at the vertical (Z) break on Hoffman’s fastball/changeup mix over the past three years:

2007:
Fastball 14.8 Z, Changeup 9.5 Z (30.6 GB%)

2008:
Fastball 14.6 Z, Changeup 8.8 Z (39 GB%)

2009:
Fastball 12.4 Z, Changeup 6.5 Z (48.1 GB%)

The relative difference in vertical break between the fastball and change remains about the same (a good thing), but he’s isn’t throwing quite as high in the zone.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

With the Mets plummeting into oblivion (look, Francoeur can’t bear to even watch anymore), save chances have been sparse in Queens (one since the All-Star break). Want an example of why ERA isn’t such a good measure for relievers? K-Rod’s has dropped three years in a row (2.81 in 2007, 2.24 in 2008 and 1.81 in 2009), yet his K/BB has dipped from 2.65 to 1.80 over that time, with a jump in FIP (2.70 in ’07, 3.22 in ’08, 3.58 this year). A low BABIP (.236) has veiled the signs of decay, but the 2009 version of Rodriguez hasn’t been especially good.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a rough June, Qualls appears to be back on track in July. In 9 frames, he has given up 2 runs while issuing just 1 walk. Qualls isn’t missing as many bats this year (7.49 K/9 in ’09, 8.67 in ’08), but he has been extremely stingy with the free passes (1.13 BB/9, the 4th straight year that he has lowered his walk rate).

The 30 year-old is inducing more contact these days: his Z-Contact% (pct. of contact within the zone) has increased by five percent since 2007, with a 10 percent increase in total contact. He’s still burning worms (59.8 GB%) and has posted a 2.82 FIP, but his ERA (3.63) is inflated due to some shoddy D behind him. The D-Backs (27th in Defensive Efficiency) have allowed a .325 BABIP behind Qualls. Groundballs do have a higher BABIP than flyballs (.231 to .221), but that’s an excessive figure nonetheless.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street is on a serious roll. He has allowed 1 run all month, without walking a batter in 7.1 frames. The erstwhile Athletic holds an exceptionally strong 4.70 K/BB ratio for the season, with a mid-80’s slider that is carving up the competition (+4.74 runs/100 pitches). After posting a -0.01 WPA last year, Huston has a 1.87 mark in 2009.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has also allowed just a single tally in July, with 9 K’s and one walk in 7.2 innings. Papa Grande’s year has been interrupted by a calf injury and he has had some issues with the long ball (15.4 HR/FB%), but he has maintained a near 11 K/9 pace while paring down his walk rate for the 4th straight season (from 4.01 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.25 this year). Interestingly, Valverde hasn’t made some concerted effort to put more pitches over the plate: his Zone% has gone from 59.2% in ’06 to 53% in 2009. Rather, his Outside-Swing% has soared:

2006: 22.4%
2007: 24.4%
2008: 33%
2009: 36.4%

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Has Soriano wrested the full-time closer’s gig from Gonzalez? It would appear that way. After all, Rafael has taken the last 8 save chances for the Braves. While the merits of the switch to more rigid bullpen management can be debated, Soriano’s set role is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. The immensely-talented-but-fragile righty has decimated hitters for 12.02 K/9 this season, with the second-best WPA (2.97) in the bigs. His 93 MPH cheese (+2.4 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.53) have been near-unhittable this year.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Capps, who was throttled for 5 runs, 6 hits and two walks in a 0.1 inning debacle vs. the Phillies on the 11th. Since the respite, he has tossed three scoreless innings (one save) while whiffing 5 hitters. Don’t be totally surprised to see Capps’ name floated in trade talk over the next week; Pittsburgh’s front office is not shy about making bold moves if they feel it betters the franchise long-term. Shipping out a good-not-great reliever with a recent history of shoulder problems wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Co-Co hasn’t seen much work lately, with two appearances (1 save) since the All-Star break. The 34 year-old has experienced a rather startling drop in his K rate, from a career-high 12.22 K/9 in 2007 to 7.58 this year. A .250 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate (2.9%) make his ERA (1.66) look pristine, but there are some warning signs here. Opponents are putting the bat on the ball more often (64.5% contact rate in ’07, 77.2% in ’09) and aren’t chasing nearly as many pitches out of the zone (22.9% in 2009, two percent below the MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin converted a 1.1 inning save vs. Arizona on the 19th, but blew an opportunity against the Astros on the 22nd (4 H, 2R in 0.2 IP). The Cards closer certainly hasn’t been poor this year: his K rate (7 per nine) is a career-high and his K/BB in 3.5. But his .230 BABIP, near 93% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (5.7%) suggest he’ll resume being a pretty good reliever stretched as a relief ace.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Lidge continues to make both Phillies Phans and fantasy owners tear their hair out. Last year’s WPA leader has endured an explosive July, with 5 runs and 6 walks coughed up in 7.2 innings. Hobbled by a knee injury, Lidge has lost all semblance of control (5.91 BB/9). His fastball has arguably been the worst in baseball (-2.92 runs/100 pitches), and his trademark slider has been merely average (-0.02). How much leash will the first-place Phillies give him?

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has worked four clean innings since the break, with one save converted vs. Pittsburgh on the 19th. Paradoxically, Wilson’s K rate has remained unchanged (9.67 in ’08, 9.76 in ’09) despite an increase in zone contact rate (81.8% to 86%), and his walk rate has dropped (from 4.04 to 3.32) despite a drop in pitches within the strike zone (54.3% to 49%).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Is it time to move Gregg up a peg? In 11.1 July frames, he has given up 3 runs with a 9/3 K/BB, and it’s not as though Marmol (with a staggering 8.55 BB/9) has done much to inspire confidence. He’s still something short of a ninth-inning asset, but Gregg’s WPA is up to 1.34.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins appear to have settled on Nunez as the 9th-inning option, with Meyer (outperforming Nunez in FIP and WPA) assuming set-up duties. Leo converted save opportunities vs. San Diego on the 20th and 21st. He has often walked the tight rope in 2009, posting a first-pitch strike percentage (55.9%) below the major league average (58.1). However, Nunez has been plenty hard to hit, with batters making contact with just 75.4% of pitches thrown within the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg).

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Interim manager Jim Riggelman recently announced that the Nationals will use a “closer-by-committee” approach, which is a diplomatic way of saying that no one really deserves the high-leverage job.

MacDougal, Beimel and Burnett are all in play for the rarest of baseball events: a Nationals save chance. MacDougal (11/22 K/BB ratio…seriously) is throwing mid-90’s fastball after mid 90-‘s fastball with little clue as to where the ball is headed. Beimel, by contrast, has used his mid-80’s “heater”, good curve and decent changeup to post a 4.14 FIP that marks him as more decent middle-man than relief ace. Burnett, like Beimel, is a former Pirates port sider who relies on a quality breaking ball (+1.22 runs/100 pitches with the slider). Burnett’s 2.66 ERA might catch your eye, but his .206 BABIP takes some of the shine off; his FIP is 4.25.

Overall, the situation in Washington is a fantasy wasteland.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton appeared just once this past week, and it was a rocky cameo to say the least. Big Jon allowed 3 runs and 3 walks against the Padres on July 5th. To put that in perspective, Broxton coughed up a total of 4 runs in April and May combined. His numbers for the year are still terrifying, as he leads all relievers in FIP (1.39) while placing ever so slightly behind teammate Ramon Troncoso in WPA (2.64 to 2.63). Broxton’s 14.75 K/9 ranks nearly three whole K’s per nine above second-place Octavio Dotel.

Heath Bell, Padres

The first-time All-Star selection worked twice this week, with a 1.2-inning save vs. the Dodgers on the fourth (he allowed 1 run, 1 H and 1 BB), and then tossing a scoreless inning in a non-save chance the following day. One would assume that Bell (5th in WPA, without giving up a homer in 36.1 frames) is on the trading block. He’s pretty darned good, but has more utility to the also-run club as a trade chip.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod appeared once this week, allowing a homer to Manny Ramirez against the Dodgers on the 8th. The Queens closer is arguably in the midst of his worst season in the majors, despite posting his second-lowest ERA (1.77). Rodriguez’s FIP sits at a mediocre 3.69, the product of 9.07 K/9 and 5.09 BB/9. The lack of control is becoming a serious concern; this is the 4th straight year that K-Rod’s BB rate has increased, and he isn’t missing as many bats as he used to either. Opponents have responded by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. Rodriguez’s O-Swing% has dropped from 30.2% in 2007 to 23.6% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman got into just one game this week, picking up a bumpy save (2 walks and 1 hit) against St. Louis on July 8th. Trevor walked one batter in his first 18 appearances, but he has issued 6 free passes in his last 7 trips to the mound. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a long ball in 24.1 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected 3 saves in 4.1 scoreless innings this week. Hitters touched up Qualls more than usual in June as he fought through forearm tightness (85.1% contact rate that’s 6 percent above his 2009 average, with 8 R in 9.2 IP), but Arizona’s closer appears to be back on track.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps got into just one game this week, racking up a save vs. the ‘Stros on July 7th. He walked just two batters in 11 June innings and has pitched two-walkless frames in July, a happy development after Capps issued 9 walks in 15.2 frames during April and May. The Texan’s Zone% was 56.8% in June, after posting marks of 51.6% in April and May.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street soaked up 4 innings this week, allowing 1 run while collecting three saves. His WPA (1.46) is already higher than every full season other than his 2005 rookie campaign (3.70). Street’s Zone%, which dipped to a below-average 47.5 in 2008, is back up to 51.6% this year. That helps to explain how his walk rate has been shaved down from 3.47 in ’08 to 2.35 in 2009.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s WPA leader (5.37) still ranks dead last in 2009 (-2.18) by a considerable margin. He collected two save vs. the Mets on the 4th and 5th, but Bad Lidge reared his ugly head again against the Reds on the 7th (2 H, 1 R, 1BB while taking the loss). Lidge did collect another save vs. Cincy yesterday. Opposing hitters have made contact with 85.7% of Lidge’s pitches within the zone, about 11 percent above his career average.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected two saves this week, with scoreless frames against the Cardinals on the 4th and the Phillies on the 7th. Cincy’s closer has a WPA (2.02) that places him among the top 10, but it’s been something of a high-wire act. Cordero’s 1.88 K/BB is his worst mark since 2000; a very low BABIP (.251) and HR/FB rate (3 percent) have veiled a drop in K/9 from 12.22 in 2007 to 7.50 in 2009.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde picked up one save in three appearances this week, punching out 5 batters and surrendering 1 run in the process. Though Papa Grande has endured some long ball woes (17.4 HR/FB%), he also totes rates of 11.44 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. Valverde’s mid-90’s gas hasn’t hit the mark often enough (-1.06 runs/100 pitches), but his mid-80’s splitter has been stellar (+2.10).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Equipped with rugged facial hair and a brand-spankin’ new cutter, Franklin owns a microscopic ERA (0.83) and 20 saves in 21 chances. Still, color me very skeptical. While Franklin’s K rate (6.61) is higher than usual, his .209 BABIP, mind-bending 99.2% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (6.1%) portend to bumpier days ahead.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson whiffed three while getting the save vs. Houston on July 5th, but the Marlins filleted him for 3 hits and two runs on the 6th (he still got the cheapie save anyway). By WPA, Wilson has been one of the worst 15 relievers in the bigs (-0.84). In sunnier news, his 2.8 K/BB ratio is a career-high.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano has picked up the last four save opportunities for the Braves, as Bobby Cox appears to be leading toward the man who ranks fourth in WPA (2.51) and 3rd in FIP (1.94). Gonzalez (0.80 WPA, 3.31 FIP) gave up 3 runs to the Nationals on the fourth, got two holds in scoreless frames on the 7th and 8th vs. the Cubs, then coughed up 2 more runs vs. the Rockies yesterday in his third straight day of pitching.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got the save against the Braves on the 6th, then gave up 2 runs vs. Atlanta in a non-save situation on the 8th. Overall, Gregg holds a 0.70 WPA, with rates of 8.92 K/9 and 3.66 BB/9. Chicago’s stopper is using his low 80’s slider more than ever 30.6% of the time), though the breaker hasn’t been as effective this year (-0.41 runs/100 pitches, +0.70 in 2007 and 2008).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer are filling in

It’s hard to say just who will get the call in the 9th for the Fish. Since Lindstrom hit the shelf, Meyer and Nunez have collected two saves apiece. In terms of 2009 performance, the back-from-the-dead Meyer (once a prized prospect for the Braves and A’s) has Nunez beat in FIP (3.58 to 4.38) and WPA (1.22 to 0.46). Meyers’ past as a top starting prospect is still apparent out of the ‘pen, as he has used three different pitches to quell hitters. His 91 MPH fastball (1.13 runs/100 pitches), mid-80’s slider (+3.24) and high-70’s change (+4.19) are all working right now. Nunez also uses the same three offerings often. His 94 MPH heater (+2.24) and mid-80’s slider (+2.34) are dynamite, while an oft-utilized hard changeup (-1.75) is getting hit hard.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal is fantasy baseball’s equivalent of “in case of emergency, break glass.” If you have no other ninth-inning options, then I suppose you might be desperate enough to use Washington’s “stopper.” Then again, you might just want to run out of that burning building instead. MacDougal’s K/BB ratio for the year is 10/19 in 21 innings. Sure, he throws hard (95.2 MPH), but that hasn’t stopped batters from making contact with 87% of his pitches.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

No Mo Runs: Rivera hasn’t seen a runner cross home plate on his watch since June 12th, a stretch of 10.1 innings in which he’s whiffed 11 and walked none. The Panama native has an obscene 43/3 K/BB ratio, with a 2.73 FIP that’s dropping like a lead balloon has his early-season homer woes subside. Rivera’s cutter is heating up:

Runs/100 for Rivera’s cutter:
April: +1.54
May: +0.57
June: +2.45
July: +6.13

Joe Nathan, Twins

There’s little to report on the Nathan front: Joe hasn’t gotten into game action since the Fourth of July, as the Bronx Bombers swept the Twins in a three-game set. Nathan’s FIP (1.88) is second among relievers, with his fastball (+3.05 runs/100), slider (+2.28) and curve (+1.70) firing on all cylinders.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria notched 4 saves this week, twirling 4.1 innings of scoreless relief vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox. He K’d 7 and walked no one. In between DL stints for a barking shoulder, Soria has posted rates of 11.74 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9, giving him a career-best 4.29 K/BB ratio. Soria’s contact rate is at a career-low 70.5%, and his First-Pitch Strike% is also the best of his big league tenure (64.5%, 58% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By no means has Papelbon been bad this season; he just hasn’t been the absolutely dominant, Irish-jigging force that we have become accustomed to seeing. Boston’s stopper has a 3.89 FIP, the product of an inflated walk rate (4.26 BB/9). His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has dropped over 4 percent from 2008, and his signature mid-to-high 90’s cheese has been merely good (+0.71 runs/100 pitches; +2.23 career average).

Of course, all of this worrying could be for naught. Fretting too much about a half-season’s worth of pitching from a reliever is a good way to get yourself in trouble by selling low. Relief performance is notoriously volatile; Papelbon could resume his fire-breathing, door-slamming performance in the second half and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks quietly turned in an excellent first half, with 8.79 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. An inflated HR/FB rate (18.5%) has left his line looking merely good, but Bobby has reduced his percentage of contact within the zone nearly 10 percent from 2008 (93.1% to 83.6%). He’s missing bats, displaying sharp command and still burning worms (54.2 GB%). That’s a recipe for success.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco picked up a clean save against the Rays on the 5th, but he served up a dinger to Juan Rivera in a non-save situation vs. the Angels on the 7th (his second HR allowed since being activated from the DL). The 6-3, 230 pounder might be throwing too many strikes in July. His Zone% is 62.3 this month, and opponents have made contact with 90.6% of those offerings within the zone (his Zone% for the year is 53.7, and his Z-Contact% is 80.8). Even with the rough return, Frank holds a 4.29 K/BB for the year, with a 1.91 Win Probability Added that ranks just outside the top 10.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey got some well-deserved rest this week. Though fantasy owners are probably gritting their teeth at Oakland’s moribund offense (the rookie stopper collected a 1.1 inning save vs. Cleveland on the 5th, and hasn’t pitched since), Bailey is on pace to toss 94 frames in 2009. That’s probably not as worrisome as it sounds, though, as Bailey is a converted starter. Four of the 25 year-old’s nine saves have tasked him with getting at least four outs. Imagine that: using your best reliever when the situation calls for it. Oakland isn’t afraid to call on Bailey to get a tough out in the 8th and then pitch the 9th, a good thing for A’s fans and Bailey owners alike.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Dan Wheeler got a save yesterday afternoon, but don’t worry too much. J.P. needed a day off after working back-to-back games against the Jays. The best reliever no one talks about, Howell’s bass-ackwards curveball and changeup-oriented arsenal has produced rates of 10.67 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. The curve (+2.01 runs/100 pitches) and change (+3.50) have been devastating, perhaps allowing Howell’s mid-80’s heat to play up (+0.97) as hitters sit off-speed.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes picked up his 24th save of the season on July 5th, but hasn’t taken the bump since. The former Colorado southpaw has lowered his walk rate for third season (from 3.38 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.76 BB/9 in ’09), a curious development given that his percentage of pitches within the zone has dipped from 52% in ’07 to 47.1% this year. Fuentes’ slurvy breaking pitch hasn’t been sharp (-1.19 runs/100), but his 90 MPH fastball (+1.91) is perplexing opponents.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs returns from the DL just as the Blue Jays unceremoniously dump former closer B.J. Ryan (not that Ryan’s diminished high-80’s fastball and frisbee slider posed much of a threat). The 33 year-old Downs had a superb first half (28/5 K/BB, 2.14 FIP in 27.1 IP). The question going forward will be: can Downs continue to get batters to chase his high-80’s sinker and big-breaking curve? One might be inclined to think Downs’ reduced walk rate (1.65 BB/9, 3.42 BB/9 career) is the product of sharper control, but that’s not the case. His Zone% is just 44.3. Rather, his O-Swing% is at 33%, 11 percent above his career mark and 8 percent above 2008’s clip.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a save vs. the A’s on Independence Day, then another versus the White Sox yesterday. It will take a long time for Kerry’s numbers to recover, though. For the year, he has issued 4.85 BB/9, with a -0.81 WPA. Believe it or not, Wood’s 96 MPH fastball has been one of the least effective in the majors (-1.47 runs/100). After garnering a 31.3 Outside-Swing% in 2008, Wood has baited batters to chase just 18.2% of the time in Cleveland (24.9% MLB avg.). That’s the third-lowest rate among relievers.

George Sherrill, Orioles

After a superb June (11 IP, 8/2 K/BB, 1 R), Sherrill’s July has been a mixed bag. He has surrendered 3 runs in 3.2 frames, with 5 K’s and 3 walks. The 32 year-old has a career-best 1.40 WPA and walk rate (3.06 BB/9). Is it time for the O’s to cash out?

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma picked up a spotless save against one of his former employers (Boston) on July 4th, but the control-challenged righty then had a disastrous appearance against Baltimore on the 8th (no outs recorded, 4 H, 5 R). He collected another SV versus the Rangers yesterday. Aardsma remains a good candidate to regress in the second half.

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

After a turbulent June (12 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 10/10 K/BB), Rodney has posted a 7/1 K/BB ratio in July. Still, Rodney’s K rate (8.05 per nine) is down, his Zone% (48.3) is a career-low, and opponents are making contact with his pitches within the zone at the highest rate (82.8%) since 2002.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Aside from showing Zen-like plate discipline by drawing a bases-loaded walk against K-Rod, Rivera collected three more saves this week (taking him to 20 for the year). Mo mowed down 3 hitters in 3.1 innings, allowing 1 hit. That takes his K/BB ratio for the year up to a ridiculous 40/3 in 32.2 IP. Rivera’s XFIP figures since 2006: 3.64, 3.06, 2.44, 1.93. For more on how Rivera has managed to make hitters look silly with essentially one pitch for a decade and a half, check out Dave Allen’s piece on two very different kinds of cutters. It may technically be the same pitch, but Rivera works both sides of the plate against righty and lefty hitters alike.

Joe Nathan, Twins

The 34 year-old Nathan could be turning in the best season of his career. His K/BB ratio is an obscene 6.5 in 2009 (a career-high), with a 1.95 FIP bested only by LA’s Broxton and Atlanta’s Soriano. The last time Nathan allowed a run was May 15th, a stretch of 16.2 IP. During June, this far-from-ordinary Joe whiffed 18 batters while issuing a single walk in 11.2 IP.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim collected two saves this week, slamming the door on the Pirates June 28th and the Twins the following night. Soria’s FIP is 2.39 for the year, with 23 K’s in 18.2 IP. The 25 year-old has an awfully deep mix of pitches for a reliever, and he’s mixing it up more since his rookie season. In 2007, Soria tossed his fastball 77.2% of the time. He used the heat 72.4% last year, and 67.6% in 2009, as he relies more on a wicked 70 MPH curveball (+4.76 runs/100 pitches career) and low-80’s change (+0.98).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon picked up 3 saves this week, while blowing one opportunity vs. the O’s on the 30th as part of that absurd 11-10 Baltimore comeback. Perhaps Papelbon’s early-season control issues are in the rearview mirror: he has issued just 1 free pass over his past 5 innings. Still, his FIP (4.21) is well above his accustomed level (2.01 in ’08 and 2.45 in ’07), with just 8.74 K/9 (10 K/9 in ’08, 12.96 in ’07).

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks pitched just twice this week, getting a W vs. the cross-town Cubbies June 27th and getting the save against the Royals yesterday. The 6-3, 275 pounder is turning in a superb year, with 8.79 K/9 (a marked increase from last year’s 5.55 K/9) and 1.88 BB/9. Some poor luck on flyballs has put a damper on the overall numbers, but Jenks has recovered his strikeout ability and velocity (95.4 MPH fastball in 2009, 93.8 last year) while further refining his control.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Re-inserted as Texas’ closer, Francisco had a rough return when the Angels pummeled him for 3 runs, two walks and a homer on July 1st. In a season interrupted by elbow and shoulder pain, Frank has posted a 26/7 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. His split-finger pitch is stifling the opposition, with a +4.58 run/100 pitch value in 2009. Normally a wild child (4.43 BB/9 career), Francisco has issued 2.66 BB/9 this season.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey continues to crush hitters in the late innings. While he didn’t get a save this week, he eviscerated the competition to the tune of 7 K’s and 1 hit in 3 innings (his FIP sits at 2.65 for the year). Bailey’s three-pitch mix has limited batters to a Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made on pitches within the strike zone) of 70.8%, light years below the 87.7% MLB average.

In Control

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes didn’t give up a single run in June (8.2 IP, 11 K, 3 BB), and he started off July with another scoreless frame against the O’s yesterday. His walk rate is down to 2.86 per nine innings (a career low), with a 3.11 FIP that trumps the 3.34 mark posted by the Queens-bound man he replaced in Los Angeles.

J.P. Howell, Rays

Howell has taken the past five save chances for the Rays, a great development for fantasy owners. The 26 year-old converted starter is among the very best ‘pen arms in the majors, with 10.71 K/9, and a 2.47 FIP. J.P. supplements a deceptively effective mid-80’s fastball (+0.87 runs/100 in 2009) with a knockout 80 MPH curve (+2.28) and changeup (+2.91). He may not fit the fire-breathing closer archetype, but he’s damned hard to make contact against. Howell’s 68.3% contact rate ranks 6th among relievers tossing at least 30 IP. If the save chances keep on coming, he’ll surely climb this list.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood didn’t get a save chance this week, but he and the Indians will gladly take two scoreless innings, given his turbulent beginning in Cleveland. The 32 year-old Texan still has a walk rate nearing 5.3 per nine innings, with a -0.99 WPA that places him in the bottom 10 among all relievers. The Tribe acquired another hard-throwing, control-challenged ‘pen arm in Chris Perez (acquired from St. Louis along with a PTBNL for Mark DeRosa), but he doesn’t seem likely to challenge Wood this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill was shellacked by Boston on July 1st, walking three and giving up 2 runs in a 6-5 loss. Overall, the 32 year-old southpaw has a 3.62 FIP and a 1.22 WPA. Sherrill’s shiny 2.51 ERA and “Proven Closer” moniker could make him attractive to bullpen-starved teams. The O’s are reportedly still unsure of whether or not to ship Sherrill elsewhere, but it definitely seems to make sense. The club has an outstanding crop of talent, but the A.L. East is a whole different beast; they’re not contending now, and George won’t be part of the next competitive Baltimore team.

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma collected a save vs. the Dodgers on June 28th, then tossed a scoreless frame against the Yankees (no save) yesterday in an 8-4 win. The flame-throwing 27 year-old is fooling plenty of hitters (11.33 K/9, with a contact rate in the low-70’s), but his XFIP (4.01) is considerably higher than his ERA (1.45). If there’s a place Aardsma can keep defying convention, though, it’s Seattle (the flyball righty resides in a park that suppresses homers and has the benefit of Gutierrez and Ichiro! in the outfield).

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Frasor didn’t get a save op this week, but he did make two scoreless appearances (vs. Philly on June 28th and Tampa on July 1st). He did walk two in two innings, however. Frasor’s walk rate will be worth monitoring in the following weeks. He has issued just 2.28 BB/9, but that’s more the product of more outside swings (25.1% O-swing% in ’09, 19.7 in 2007) than some newfound ability to paint the corners.

Meanwhile, Downs is on the comeback trail (he threw off a mound for the first time June 30th). Downs seems to feel he’s close to a return…

“It’s progress,” Downs said. “It wouldn’t be the first time I pitched through discomfort. It’s not discomfort enough to where it’s affecting my mechanics and that’s the main thing.” (mlb.com)

…While manager Cito Gaston is less convinced…

“I hope he is but I really dont know,” said Gaston. “I have no confidence in that at all.” (Jordan Bastian)

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney dips back down to “Watch Your Back” territory, following a flammable June that saw him get hammered for 9 runs in 12 IP. Fernando issued an ugly 10 free passes during June, locating just 45% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.2% MLB average). Rodney’s FIP has ballooned to 4.04. Granted, Zumaya (5.05 FIP, 5.47 BB/9) hasn’t been some beacon of stability. But the Tigers could explore trade possibilities over the next month.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton had a relatively light week of work, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering that he’s on pace to chuck 76 innings this season (that’s nothing compared to Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario, however: Troncoso is on a 105-inning pace and Belisario projects to throw 96 frames). Jon notched one save in two appearances vs. Colorado, whiffing five batters in the process. If Broxton is wearing out, it’s certainly not showing up in his velocity readings: his average fastball checked in at 97.3 MPH in June (97.5 MPH for the year). The 25 year-old has increased his fastball velocity every season in the majors, from 94.4 MPH in 2005 to that near-98 MPH reading in ’09. His run values for the pitch (per 100 pitches) since 2005? 0.17, -0.30, +0.69. +1.38 and +1.60 in 2009.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath corralled the state of Texas this week, notching a save vs. the Rangers on June 28th and another against Houston on the 30th. Bell still hasn’t been taken deep in 33.2 innings this season, racking up a +2.17 Win Probability Added (WPA) that’s tied for 7th among relievers. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, could Bell be switching uni’s? The Padres have considerable work to do on the rebuilding front, and hording a 31 year-old reliever, no matter the quality, wouldn’t seem to be a wise move.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez had an embarrassing week, featuring what is likely the lowest point of his distinguished career: a bases-loaded walk to closer deity Mariano Rivera, of all people. K-Rod walked three in that appearance against the Yankees on the 28th, got a spotless save against Milwaukee July 1st then blew up again yesterday afternoon in a rain-drenched affair against the Pirates (4 H, 2R, 1 HR in 2 IP). Is it time to be concerned here? In 2006, Rodriguez posted a 3.5 K/BB ratio with the Angels. In 2009, that figure has nearly been cut in half (1.82 K/BB). He’s lost 3 punchouts per nine innings since ’06, and his walk rate (4.99 BB/9) is up for the 4th straight season. Rodriguez has never jumped out ahead of hitters, but check out his First-Pitch Strike% totals (MLB average is 58%):

2006: 57.4
2007: 57.2
2008: 54.5
2009: 48.8

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor was touched up for two runs and 4 hits against the Giants on June 27th, then came back to pick up a save vs. the Mets on the 29th (his 18th). Like the man who replaced him in San Diego, Hoffman hasn’t surrendered a home run this year. Believe it or not, his 85 MPH fastball has been remarkably effective in 2009. Among relievers tossing at least 20 innings, Hoffman’s +3.03 runs/100 with the pitch ranks 2nd. Hoffman’s vaunted low-70’s changeup (+3.60/100 pitches) has also been dastardly. The fastball/changeup combo is all about working up and down the for all-time saves leader: his fastball and changeup barely move horizontally at all (1 inch of tail in on righties for the fastball, with 3 inches of tail for the change). However, there’s a half-foot of difference in terms of vertical movement (12.4 inches for the fastball, 6.6 for the changeup). The MLB average is less than 4 inches of difference.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Pitching at less-than-optimum health (strained forearm), Qualls surrendered 8 runs in 9.2 frames during the month of June. Opponents slugged .535 against him during the month, as he punched out 5 batters. Qualls’ numbers for the season (8.16 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 64.6 GB%) are excellent, but have been dragged down by a .350 BABIP.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge had another stomach-churning appearance on June 26th, coughing up 2 runs and 2 walks in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Blue Jays. He did recover to collect a save two nights later against Toronto. Let’s try to be positive here: Lidge has suffered from a .371 BABIP and a 17.9 HR/FB rate. Still, his walk rate (5.6 BB/9, 46 Zone%) is troubling. None of Lidge’s pitches are working. His fastball (-3.45 runs/100 pitches) is the least effective among all relievers, and the oft-utilized slider comes in at -0.59/100 pitches (+2.50 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Coco Cordero threw a scoreless frame versus Cleveland June 27th (no save), picked up a SV against Arizona July 1st and got a W despite walking three batters against the D-Backs the following night. Cordero’s K/BB ratio has dipped to 1.93, with his K rate falling by a decent margin (7.68 K/9, down from 9.98 last year). His low BABIP (.264) and HR/FB rate (3.2%) suggest that the 1.85 ERA is more smoke and mirrors than great pitching. Cordero’s XFIP (based on K’s, walks, and a normalized HR/FB rate) sits over two runs higher (3.93).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps picked up two saves this week (against the Royals and Cubs), but it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Big Bull Rider. He served up a homer to Mark Teahen on June 26th, then took a loss against the Mets yesterday afternoon. Capps won’t be 26 until September, but don’t be entirely surprised if his name enters trade discussion over the next month. The Pirates surely aren’t shy about jettisoning players if they feel the return is right.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street sealed the deal twice this week, with saves against his former employer (the A’s) on June 27th and 28th. After a mediocre 2008 season (-0.01 WPA), Street has rebounded by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.56 to 3.90 (+0.98 WPA). After locating just 47.5% of his pitches in the zone last season, Huston has increased that figure to 51.2% with the Rockies (49.2 MLB average, 51.4 career average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande pitched twice this past week, blowing a save against Detroit on June 28th (2 R, including a homer by Brandon Inge). Working his way back from a nasty calf injury, Valverde hasn’t gotten ahead of hitters as well as he normally does. His First-Pitch Strike% is just 55.1 (65.3 in 2007 and 61.4 in 2008). To boot, opponents are making contact with 84.1% of his pitches within the zone (76.2 career average). Despite all that negativity, Valverde still has a 20/5 K/BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Franklin continues to defy logic by holding an eye-popping 99.1% strand rate and a .206 BABIP. Those measures say “regression” in bold, glowing, neon lights. Yet, St. Louis’ stopper hasn’t given up a run since May 20th (a stretch of 13 appearances). It helps that Franklin just plain doesn’t walk anyone (1.45 BB/9; he last gave up a free pass May 27th).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had his 13-appearance scoreless streak busted on June 27th vs. the Brewers, as he was beaten to the tune of 3 runs and 4 hits in 0.2 innings. He then came back to notch a 1.1-inning save vs. St. Louis on June 30th. On the positive side, Wilson’s 96 MPH heater is humming (+1.50 runs/100). On the other hand, he’s throwing about 5 percent fewer pitches within the strike zone (54.3 in ’08, 49.2 in ’09). His WPA for the year sits at -0.87. That’s in the same territory as discarded Twin Luis Ayala and maligned middle man Aaron Heilman.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzalez notched a save against the Red Sox on June 28th, with Soriano picking up a SV yesterday against the Phillies after Ryan Madson coughed up 3 runs. Soriano bests Gonzalez in WPA (2.2 to 0.97) and K/BB ratio (3.77 to 3.4), and he was used in more high-leverage situations than Gonzo in June (1.68 Leverage Index to 1.48 for Gonzalez). They’re both qualified, and figuring out who gets the 9th-inning opportunity will come down to matchups and recent usage compared to just pigeonholing one guy as “closer” and the other “set-up man.” Imagine that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg turned in a much-needed, serene week for the Cubs. He gathered three saves (one against the White Sox and two vs. the Bucs), whiffing three and not surrendering a hit in 3 IP. Gregg’s numbers for the year aren’t anything to write home about, but his WPA is up to 0.45 and he has stopped handing out walks like they’re sticks of Juicy Fruit (1.5 K/BB in April, 2.4 in May and 3.67 in June).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Nunez appears to be the guy pegged for save ops for Florida in Lindstrom’s absence. The lithe, live-armed 25 year old (formerly of the Pittsburgh and Kansas City organizations) boasts a 94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider and a hard mid-80’s change. While those offerings didn’t lead to many whiffs in 2008 (4.84 K/9), Nunez has punched out 8.49 batters per nine innings this season. Opponents aren’t making a whole lot of contact with his stuff (72.4% overall, compared to the 80.6% MLB average), but Nunez could stand to stop getting into so many hitter’s counts (53.4 First-Pitch Strike%).

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal picked up a save against the O’s on June 28th, while also seeing one of his competitors (Joel Hanrahan) shipped to the ‘Burgh. Not that the former Royal and White Sock should enjoy any great job security: in 18.2 IP, MacDougal has a 10/15 K/BB ratio.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon turned in his first poor week at the office, surrendering 4 runs, 2 walks and a homer (his first of the year) in two appearances against the Angels on June 20th and 21st. His numbers are still fantastic for the season, however: 14.38 K/9, a 1.41 FIP and a 2.79 WPA that leads all relievers.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell racked up 2 saves this week, while also picking up a win (4 IP total). Remarkably, Heath still hasn’t given up a homer in 31.1 innings. Bell has ratcheted up the use of his fastball in recent seasons (from 64% in ’07 to 76.2% this year), and with good reason: the pitch has a run value of +2.07/100 pitches this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod was touched up against the Orioles on the 18th (2 H, 2 BB), but he has tossed three scoreless innings (3 saves) since. Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to head south, however. His K rate (9.59) is down for a 4th straight season, and his walk rate (4.79 BB/9) is a career high. A .223 BABIP and a 2.2 HR/FB rate have kept his surface numbers at an elite level, but there are some cracks in the foundation here.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

With the Brew Crew rotation featuring Gallardo and four punching bags, Hoffman’s work has been scarce (Milwaukee has dropped 5 out of 6 games). Trevor has been mortal this month (including a blown save and 2 runs surrendered against the Indians on the 17th), but he still boasts a 19/4 K/BB ratio in 21.2 frames. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a big fly, either.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a turbulent beginning to the month of June while dealing with forearm soreness (7 runs in his first 6 appearances), Qualls delivered two scoreless appearances on the 24th and 25th. Qualls’ fastball velocity hasn’t suffered, but the pitch hasn’t been as effective this season. His heater has a -0.34 run value per 100 tosses, including an ugly -4.16 mark in June (+1.68 in 2008).

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge is off the DL following a pair of quality rehab appearances for Single-A Clearwater. “Lights out” returns to a line that includes some truly gruesome figures. He ranks dead last in WPA (-2.20), with the least productive heater among ‘pen arms (-3.36 runs per 100 pitches). Opponents have made contact with 87.9% of Lidge’s offerings within the zone, well above his 74.8% career average. Let’s hope that the rest and mended knee fix this previously dominant closer.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero finally served up a big fly this week, amazingly his first since September 20th, 2008. He picked up 3 saves during the week, with a 1.44 WPA for the season. Hitters continue to make more contact with Cordero’s stuff (64.5% in 2007, 70.7 in 2007 and 76.8% in 2008). However, nearly all of that extra contact has come on pitches outside of the zone: Cordero’s O-Contact% has gone from 35.1% in ’07 to 63.5% in ’09.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t collected a save since June 14th, but he has tossed two scoreless frames since then, including a pair against the Indians. Happily, Capps’ normally razor-sharp control appears to be returning. He has issued just 1 walk in 9 innings this month, while locating 60.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (51.6% in April and May).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has been an awfully busy man for the surging Rockies, with 8 saves in June. Huston’s K rate has bounced back this season, from 8.87 per nine innings in 2008 to 10.16 per nine in ’09, and his walk rate is down from 3.47/9 last year to 2.61. Street’s slider has been deadly, with a run value of +4.07 per 100 pitches (one of the 10 highest rates among relievers).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has returned to ninth-inning duties rather well. He did blow a save against the Royals on June 24th, but he collected 4 saves since our last “Closer Report” while issuing just one walk. Valverde’s fastball (95.5 MPH) is humming, though opponents have made contact within the zone 85.7% of the time this season (76.2% career average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Has anyone seen Mr. Franklin? He hasn’t gotten into a game since June 20th, when he picked up a 1.1 inning save against the Royals. Franklin’s strand rate sits at an impossibly high 99.1%, making St. Louis’ ninth-inning man the best escape artist since Houdini. His FIP (3.21) is over 2.2 runs higher than his ERA (1.00).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Good Vibrations: The last time Wilson was scored upon was all the way back on May 21st. Since then, San Fran’s stopper has turned in 13.2 squeaky clean innings, with 16 K’s and four walks. His strikeout rate is up for a third consecutive campaign (6.85 in ’07, 9.67 in ’08, 9.79 this season), and his fastball run value (+1.71 per 100 pitches) is a career best.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano and Gonzalez appear to be engaged in a strikeout battle. Soriano (12.3 K/9) picked up the save against the Cubs on the 22nd, and now holds a 1.90 WPA. Gonzalez (11.65 K/9) has tossed five scoreless, walk-free frames since a 4-run meltdown on June 16th. His WPA sits at 1.20. Expect the time-share to continue for the foreseeable future. Both are well-qualified, and Bobby Cox knows that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Well, so much for Angel Guzman’s covert attempt to swipe the closer’s role. The Venezuelan’s talent is only surpassed by his propensity to end up on the trainer’s table (this time, it’s a right triceps strain).

Gregg continues to do his best Joe Borowski imitation. The former Angel and Marlin had been working on a 9.2 inning scoreless streak, but he then used up some of that good will by blowing a game against Detroit on the 23rd (Ryan Raburn took him deep). His WPA (0.09) is just slightly in the black. Gregg has really ramped up the usage of his low-80’s slider (32.4% this year, 23.6% in ’08), but the pitch’s run value has dipped from +0.70 in 2008 to -1.01 this year.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto are candidates

After two more blow ups (a combined 5 runs and 7 hits in 1.2 IP), Lindstrom heads to the DL with a triceps injury. Perhaps the time off will mend whatever has caused him to lose control of the strike zone: the high-octane righty issued 2.82 BB/9 in 2007, 4.08 in 2008 and a stunning 6.21 this season. Lindstrom’s velocity wasn’t suffering, but his Zone% dipped to a below-average 48.8% this season (51.5% in ’08 and 54% in ’07). Lindstrom is not expected back until August.

In his absence, Nunez, Meyer and Pinto will battle for save ops. Surprisingly, Meyer has resurrected his career in Florida and looks like the best hope for fantasy owners. The former Braves and Athletics prospect has recovered from a nasty shoulder injury to author a 3.48 FIP and a 4.29 K/BB ratio.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has a 4.2 inning scoreless streak going, but it’s hard to get excited when that comes with nary a strikeout and 2 walks. Mac has a K/BB ratio of 9/13 this season, with just 43.4% of his pitches hitting the strike zone (49.1% MLB average). It would be best to look elsewhere.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Since we last checked up on Rivera, he has racked up three more saves (taking him up to 17 for the year), whiffing 5 batters in 2.2 combined innings. Much has been made about cracks in Mo’s armor this season, from an elevated HR rate to a decrease in cutter velocity to a decrease in his swinging strike percentage. But for all the panic, Rivera holds a 37/3 K/BB ratio in 29.1 innings, with the highest strikeout rate of his career. If this is decline, then we have become awfully spoiled.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has been a machine in June, compiling 8 saves while allowing no one to cross home plate. In fact, the last time Joe conceded a run was all the way back on May 15th. Since then, Nathan has reeled off 14 scoreless frames while punching out 19 hitters and walking just one. His 93 MPH fastball is overwhelming the competition, with a run value of +3.04 per 100 pitches (tops among all relievers).

Joakim Soria, Royals

With K.C. taking a royal beating as of late (6 losses in the past 8 games), Soria has just 1 save during the month of June. Joakim coughed up a run against the Astros on the 24th, and his control is a little off following a pair of DL stints (45.5 Zone%, compared to a 52.8% career average). He’s nasty as ever, though, with a 73.9% contact rate that ranks as the lowest of his career.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper hasn’t quite been himself this season. Granted, it’s difficult to say that a guy ranking in 4th in Win Probability Added (2.17) is scuffling, but Papelbon isn’t attacking the strike zone in 2009 as he did in previous years. After posting rates of 2.31 BB/9 in 2007 and 1.04 BB/9 in 2008, Papelbon has issued 4 BB/9 this year. His Zone% is down to 48.6 (54.2% career average), and opponents have reacted by swinging at about 9 percent fewer pitches this season. Whether intentional or not, his fastball has more tailing action in on righties this year, the continuation of a three-year trend: 7.3 inches in ’07, 8.5 in ’08 and 9.2 in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got taken out of the yard by Cincy’s Jay Bruce on June 20th, but has since reeled off three scoreless innings (2 saves). Bobby is having some uncharacteristic issues with the long ball this year. With a career 54.9% groundball rate and 0.62 HR/9, Jenks doesn’t give up jacks too often. But in ’09, his HR/FB% is 20 percent, 11 percent above his career average. It sounds silly to say with an established reliever like Jenks, but perhaps you could acquire him a little cheaper than usual from an owner just focusing on his inflated ERA (2.63 in ’08, 3.33 in ’09). Jenks’ K/BB ratio (4.33) is a career-high, with his K rate up from 5.55 last season to 8.67 this year.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson is getting the call until Francisco gets comfortable), Rangers

Francisco is back with the Rangers, but Wilson continues to get ninth-inning duty as Frank works his way back into form. He fired scoreless innings on the 20th and the 24th, but served up a dinger last evening to Arizona’s Mark Reynolds.

Wilson, meanwhile, hasn’t allowed a run since June 4th, a stretch of 7 innings (8/2 K/BB ratio). He’s doing a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground (58 GB%) and his 27.8 Outside-Swing% is a career-high, but Wilson’s 2.67 ERA overstates his case. His Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR rate) is 3.78.

In Control

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has notched 3 saves since our last “Closer Report”, though June 20th was the last time he got into a game. The 6-3 righty (ranked just 23rd on Baseball America’s top 30 A’s prospects entering the year) has been a revelation in the ‘pen, with 10.15 K/9 and a 2.90 FIP. Bailey offers an unusually deep mix of pitches for a reliever, able to confound hitters with a 93 MPH fastball (+1.47 runs/100), 89 MPH cutter (+1.38) or 78 MPH curve (+3.70). Good luck squaring up those offerings: Bailey’s 71.8 Z-Contact% (percentage of contact made within the strike zone) ranks 1st among relievers tossing at least 30 innings.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run in 5.2 innings this month, with 9 K’s and 3 walks. There are a few interesting trends worth watching with the former Rockie: His Zone% has decreased 3 straight seasons, from 52% in ’07, 51.7 in ’08 and 46.1 this year. Perhaps not coincidentally, the effectiveness of his secondary stuff has lagged this year. His fastball may be down a few ticks (91.6 MPH to 89.9), but the pitch still has a healthy run value of +1.60 per 100 pitches. His slider (-1.78) and changeup (-4.29) aren’t working near as well. Fuentes seems aware of this, however: his percentage of fastballs used has increased from 64.9% in 2006 to over 71% each of the past two seasons.

Kerry Wood, Indians

There’s no place like home? Wood headed back to his old stomping grounds in Wrigley this past week, only to get throttled for a pair of blown saves, 3 runs and 1 dinger in 1.1 innings. Cleveland’s big free agent signing then gave up a run and two walks against the Pirates on the 23rd, escaping with the cheap save by the skin of his teeth. Wood now has -0.2 Wins Above Replacement in 2009. Uh, Kerry, can we get a refund?

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill is working on another scoreless streak, with 5 spotless frames in a row. George has issued just 2 walks in June, after dishing out 5 in May. Typically control-challenged (career 4.36 BB/9), Sherrill has just 2.83 BB/9 in ’09. His WPA (1.44) is way above any of his previous marks.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

For the most part, Aardsma has been his wild self in 2009 (5.5 BB/9). But in June, he has issued just 3 walks in 9 innings, while whiffing 17 in the process. Perhaps it’s time to stop being quite so critical. Aardsma’s chances of losing his job are remote with Morrow out of the picture, he’s whiffing over 11 batters per nine innings, and he’s an extreme flyball pitcher backed by two center field-caliber OF’s in a park that suppresses homers. The extremely low HR/FB rate (2.4%), BABIP (.251) and high strand rate (88.1%, compared to a 73.8% career average) portend to regression, but the K’s and grip on the job make him a viable option.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Same old Rodney? Fernando’s strikeout-to-walk ratios over the first three months: 4.00 in April, 2.60 in May and 1.11 in June. Sadly, his sharp spring is looking like the outlier. Sure, Rodney has been scored upon just once in his last 6 innings, but that stretch also includes 4 free passes. His Zone% (49.6) is now below his career average (51.2), with a 1.8 K/BB that is just marginally better than 2008’s 1.63 showing.

Jason Frasor (Scott Downs on the DL with a toe injury), Blue Jays

Downs is down with a left big toe injury, so Frasor will handle closing duties for the time being. He gave up two walks and took a loss against the Nationals on the 19th, but he came back with a save against the Reds on the 23rd. Frasor’s walk rates have usually been lofty (6.08 BB/9 last year, 3.93 for his career), but the 31 year-old righty has issued just 1.75 BB/9 in 2009. It’s not as though he’s suddenly firing strike after strike: his 53 Zone% is right around his career average. Rather, Frasor has baited hitters into chasing 25.4% of his pitches off the plate, well above his 18.5% career mark.

Watch Your Back

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Howell collected a save versus the Mets on June 20th, and he hasn’t let up a run all month (9 IP, 11 K, 5 H). Howell has whiffed 10.9 hitters per nine innings, with a 68.8% contact rate that bests K-Rod. Yeah, he’s really good. Now if only we knew he’d keep the closer role..

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton continued to bellow fire and destroy hitters city by city, picking up two saves against the Rangers on the 13th and 14th and then working a scoreless inning in a non-save chance vs. the A’s last night. Big Jon now has a mind-boggling 53 K’s in 33 innings, with a 0.97 FIP. To put that strikeout figure in perspective, Broxton has more K’s than starters Kyle Davies, Jarrod Washburn, Jeremy Guthrie and Andy Pettitte, despite working 40+ fewer frames. I know it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison (K rates are higher for relievers), but that’s still insane.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell made just one trip to the mound this week, tossing a scoreless inning against the Angels on the 14th (a non-save situation). Heath’s K rate is up nearly two and a half per nine innings from last year (10.54 K/9 in ’09, 8.19 in ’08) and he has still yet to serve up a homer.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

In addition to participating in a bullpen brouhaha with Brian Bruney, K-Rod turned in a rough week at the office. Rodriguez blew a save against the Bombers on the 12th, then walked two while collecting a save against the O’s last night. He’s still nasty, but K-Rod’s contact rate has increased three years in a row (from 66 to 70 percent), while his first-pitch strike% has dipped from 57.2% in 2007 to 52.3% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hell’s Bells surrendered his first run of the season, taking a loss against the White Sox on June 14th. Hoffman then recovered to collect his 16th save of the year against the Indians the next night. Trevor’s 1.44 WPA ranks in the top 15 among relievers, and he holds a 17/2 K/BB in 20 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls hasn’t been himself as of late, coughing up 4 runs in his last 3.2 innings while trying to pitch through a forearm strain. He normally pounds the strike zone (53.4% zone percentage this year), but that figure has actually been brought down by a 45.6% showing in June. With the D-Backs buried in the standings, perhaps Qualls would be best served by taking a week or two off.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Lidge threw a pain-free bullpen session on Tuesday, and will likely begin a rehab assignment this weekend. In the meantime, Madson chucked 4 innings this week. He picked up a save against the Mets on the 11th, whiffed three Red Sox hitters the next night and pitched another scoreless frame versus the Sox on the 14th. He did, however, blow a save against the Jays last night, walking two in the process. Madson still has a 1.24 WPA and a 3.36 K/BB ratio for the year.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero only tossed one inning this week, with a scoreless appearance against the Braves last night (no save, though). He has hasn’t yielded a home run in 28 innings. Cordero’s K rate is down for the third straight year (from 12.22 K/9 in ’07 to 8.36 this year), and his contact rate has risen from 64.5% in 2007 to 76.8% in 2009.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected two saves this week, subduing the Braves on the 11th and the Tigers on the 14th. After an early-season bout of wildness, Capps has issued just one walk in six innings this month. His WPA still sits at -0.58 for the year, though.

Huston Street, Rockies

The Rockies have been on a tear, taking 11 straight ballgames before last night’s loss to the Rays. Street snagged two saves this past week, and his K/BB now sits at an impressive 32/8 in 27 innings. Huston has tossed a first-pitch strike 65.8 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde is back in action after a lengthy DL stint for a calf injury. Papa Grande got back into the swing of things with two non-save appearances against the venom less D-Backs on the 13th and 14th. He punched out 3 batters in the latter inning, and his fastball averaged 95 MPH over the two appearances.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin picked up 2 saves this week (on the 11th vs. the Marlins and the 13th vs. Cleveland), but he did surrender 5 hits in the process. Franklin has displayed sharp control (1.82 BB/9), but a few more base hits will likely fall in from here on out (his BABIP still sits at just .225, with an absurd 99% strand rate).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson got the save against Oakland on June 13th, but hasn’t worked since. The Giants stopper possesses a 96 MPH fastball which has been worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches. His slider (-0.68)/cutter (-0.94) hasn’t been as dynamic, however.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzo got beat up last evening, surrendering four runs in a rain-soaked affair with the Reds. Soriano also had has issues the past week, giving up 2 runs and taking a loss vs. the Pirates on the 11th. Here’s how the co-closers match up in a few important categories:

FIP: 3.29 Gonzo, 2.24 Soriano

WPA: 0.95 Gonzo, 1.78 Soriano

K/BB: 2.64 Gonzo, 3.36 Soriano

While Soriano has been better, Gonzalez has appeared in more crucial situations (2.00 Leverage Index for Gonzo, 1.74 for Soriano).

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom tossed just one inning this week, picking up a save vs. Toronto on June 13th. With 19 walks in 25.1 frames, the former Mets prospect has seen his FIP inflate from 3.27 in 2008 to 4.51 in 2009.

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Not to be rude, but does it even matter who the closer is for the Nats? Washington has dropped 4 games in a row, sits thirty games under .500 for the year and has a -85 run differential that’s 14 runs worse than San Diego.

MacDougal holds the mostly ceremonial title of Washington’s closer, but he has walked 11 batters in 11.1 innings, with a 4.68 FIP. You’d have to be pretty desperate to venture here.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

Gregg chucked two scoreless innings in a non-save situation against Houston on the 12th, then threw another clean frame against the Twins the following night (non-save). It was a much-needed, quiet week from an off-season pickup who has often given Sweet Lou heartburn (4.75 FIP, with 44.5% of his pitches crossing the dish; the MLB average is 49).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up another run this week, against the Mets on June 12th. Mo’s ERA sits at 3.25 and his 0.88 WPA is merely good as opposed to great, but it’s hard to be terribly concerned about a pitcher with a 33/3 K/BB in 27.2 innings. If you want to be pessimistic, Rivera’s 83.8% contact rate is his highest mark going back to 2002, and the run value on his cutter this season (+0.85 runs per 100 pitches) is also his lowest since ’02.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Joakim had an uncharacteristically bumpy week, blowing a save versus Cleveland on the 11th (stupid seagulls!) and coughing up a run and a homer against the Reds on the 13th (Ohio is not Mr. Soria’s favorite state). The Mexicutioner has been plenty nasty (14 K’s in 12.2 IP), but his control has been a little off: 6 walks with just 45.1% of his pitches crossing home plate (54.5% in 2008).

Joe Nathan, Twins

With 2 saves against the water-treading Cubs on June 12th and 13th, Nathan now holds a 4.83 K/BB ratio (8th among relievers) and is back in the double digits in terms of K’s per nine innings (10.3). Joe’s 31.8 Outside-Swing% is his highest we have going back to 2002.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Papelbon is working on a seven-inning scoreless streak, and he has allowed just 1 hit in his last four appearances. Papelbon’s O-Swing% sits at 26.2%, below his 30.5% career mark. Hitters have hacked at 9 percent fewer of his offerings compared to last year, likely the result of Papelbon’s percent of pitches in the zone dropping from 54.5% in ’08 to 47.1% in ’09.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks blew a save and gave up a jack to Detroit’s Curtis Granderson on the 11th, then collected a save against the Brewers on the 14th. Bobby’s secondary offerings have been superb this season (+3.22 runs per 100 pitches on the slider, +1.71 on the curve), but his fastball (-0.96) hasn’t been as effective (+1.55 in ’07 and ’08).

Interestingly, the pitch is nearly 2 ticks faster than last year, but it has also shown nearly two additional inches of tailing action in on the hands of right-handed hitters. Jenks’ problems have come primarily against lefties (.893 OPS, .575 vs. RHB). It could just be a coincidence, but perhaps southpaws are more comfortable at the plate, with most everything Jenks throws to them on the outside edge of the plate.

Frank Francisco (C.J. Wilson will get any saves with Frank on the DL) , Rangers

Francisco was placed on the DL again, and he hopes to return to Texas within the next 10 days. In the meantime, Wilson will continue to get the call in save situations. He’s getting plenty of grounders (56.6%), but his K/BB ratio sits at a mundane 1.58 and his WPA (0.01) is just slightly in the black.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Unfortunately, Downs suffered some sort of lower body injury in the 10th inning of last night’s contest with the Phillies. Based on performance, Jason Frasor (2.54 FIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio) would be the logical guy to take over the closer’s role if Downs goes on the DL, but it’s hard to say if the Jays would revert back to B.J. Ryan for the moment. Ryan’s fastball is still MIA, with an average speed of 87.5 MPH in June.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey has seemingly shook off Ziegler in the contest to close out games for Oakland, a happy development for fantasy owners everywhere. The 6-3 rookie (on pace to throw 105 innings) has punched out 10.54 batters per nine innings, with a 2.87 FIP. The former starter has used his three-pitch mix to great effect: his fastball (+1.39), cutter (+1.57) and curveball (+3.59) have all befuddled batters.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood worked 2 scoreless frame in non-save situations on June 11th and 12th, and hasn’t taken the mound since. Kerry’s hopping mid-90’s heater hasn’t been particularly effective in 2009, with a run value of -1.9 per 100 pitches (+0.75 in 2008).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes got into just one game this week, notching his 17th save of the year against the Giants on the 15th. LA’s new closer hasn’t had a whole lot of success with his slurvy breaking ball this season (-1.87 runs per 100 pitches, +2.06 last season). With Fuentes locating just 45.3% of his offerings in the zone, opponents have cut their outside-swing% from 29.4% in 2008 to 23.6% this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, with a scoreless frame against the Braves in a non-save situation on the 13th. George has increasingly placed fewer pitches in the strike zone (55% in ’07, 50.1 in ’08 and 47.1 in ’09), but his O-Swing has also gone up for a third year (21.1 in ’07, 26.3 in ’08 and 29.7 in ’09).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Rodney picked up a save against Pittsburgh on June 12th, but he hasn’t taken the hill since. He had been doing a better job of hitting his spots in April and May, but Rodney’s percentage of pitches thrown over the plate (49.9%) is just slightly above the 49% average now after a turbulent June (43.8 Zone%). On the positive side, his groundball rate (56.5%) is well above his 45.7% average since 2002.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is headed back to the rotation. We think.)

With Morrow playing Hamlet yet again (to start, or not to start, that is the question), the ’06 first-rounder out of Cal has returned to the rotation. That apparently clears the way for Aardsma to keep the closer’s role, but he’s still playing with fire by walking nearly 6 hitters per nine innings. As a flyball pitcher flanked by three outstanding fielders in a homer-suppressing park, Aardsma is in a good spot. But still, the sub-.240 BABIP and 87.1% strand rate just aren’t going to keep up.

Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

Izzy is sadly headed for Tommy John surgery , and he may well have thrown his last pitch in the big leagues. Howell appears to be the man for the moment, and he’s certainly the option that fantasy folks were hoping for. The converted starter supplements his mild mid-80’s fastball with an outstanding curve and change. Howell has whiffed 40 in 32.1 frames, with a 67.3% contact rate that ranks 6th among relievers.