The N.L. Closer Report: 7/24

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Overall, Broxton has been downright Gagne-esque in 2009. He has whiffed fourteen and a half hitters per nine innings, has the fourth-best WPA (2.87) among relievers and shuts the door for the best team (by far) in the National League.

But not all is well in Mannywood. Unfortunately, Broxton is suffering from a big toe injury that manager Joe Torre feels will linger for the duration of the season. Big Jon had a rough couple of outings prior to the All-Star break (5 R, 5 H and 4 BB in 2 IP on the 5th and the 10th), and he walked two in his first post All-Star appearance. However, he has turned in three spotless appearances since, including saves vs. the Astros on the 19th and the Reds on the 20th.

Going forward, Broxton should still be plenty dominant. But his first-half reign of terror is not something we should expect over a long period of time from any reliever, bum toe or not.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell finally surrendered a home run this week, as Florida’s Chris Coghlan took him deep in a non-save situation on the 22nd. Heath hasn’t had the tidiest of months (4 R, 8 H in 5.2 IP), but he holds one of the top 10 WPA marks in the majors (2.49), with an increase in K/9 from 9.19 in 2008 to 10.53 in 2009 (a career-high). The uptick in punch outs seems to have come at the expense of some control: his walk rate is up to career-high 3.43 per nine frames (the 4th-straight year that it has increased). His percentage of pitches in the zone over that period has gone from 54.6% in ’06 to 47.7% this year (49.3% MLB average).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman collected a save against the Reds on the 16th and the Pirates on the 21st, giving him 22 on the year. Trevor has yet to be taken deep in 28.1 frames.

While he’s obviously been fortunate in that regard, the extreme flyball hurler (34.6 GB% since 2002) has generated grounders at an above-average 48.1% clip in 2009. Looking at Hoffman’s Pitch F/X data, his fastball and changeup have both shown two inches less vertical movement this season. Take a look at the vertical (Z) break on Hoffman’s fastball/changeup mix over the past three years:

2007:
Fastball 14.8 Z, Changeup 9.5 Z (30.6 GB%)

2008:
Fastball 14.6 Z, Changeup 8.8 Z (39 GB%)

2009:
Fastball 12.4 Z, Changeup 6.5 Z (48.1 GB%)

The relative difference in vertical break between the fastball and change remains about the same (a good thing), but he’s isn’t throwing quite as high in the zone.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

With the Mets plummeting into oblivion (look, Francoeur can’t bear to even watch anymore), save chances have been sparse in Queens (one since the All-Star break). Want an example of why ERA isn’t such a good measure for relievers? K-Rod’s has dropped three years in a row (2.81 in 2007, 2.24 in 2008 and 1.81 in 2009), yet his K/BB has dipped from 2.65 to 1.80 over that time, with a jump in FIP (2.70 in ’07, 3.22 in ’08, 3.58 this year). A low BABIP (.236) has veiled the signs of decay, but the 2009 version of Rodriguez hasn’t been especially good.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a rough June, Qualls appears to be back on track in July. In 9 frames, he has given up 2 runs while issuing just 1 walk. Qualls isn’t missing as many bats this year (7.49 K/9 in ’09, 8.67 in ’08), but he has been extremely stingy with the free passes (1.13 BB/9, the 4th straight year that he has lowered his walk rate).

The 30 year-old is inducing more contact these days: his Z-Contact% (pct. of contact within the zone) has increased by five percent since 2007, with a 10 percent increase in total contact. He’s still burning worms (59.8 GB%) and has posted a 2.82 FIP, but his ERA (3.63) is inflated due to some shoddy D behind him. The D-Backs (27th in Defensive Efficiency) have allowed a .325 BABIP behind Qualls. Groundballs do have a higher BABIP than flyballs (.231 to .221), but that’s an excessive figure nonetheless.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street is on a serious roll. He has allowed 1 run all month, without walking a batter in 7.1 frames. The erstwhile Athletic holds an exceptionally strong 4.70 K/BB ratio for the season, with a mid-80’s slider that is carving up the competition (+4.74 runs/100 pitches). After posting a -0.01 WPA last year, Huston has a 1.87 mark in 2009.

In Control

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has also allowed just a single tally in July, with 9 K’s and one walk in 7.2 innings. Papa Grande’s year has been interrupted by a calf injury and he has had some issues with the long ball (15.4 HR/FB%), but he has maintained a near 11 K/9 pace while paring down his walk rate for the 4th straight season (from 4.01 BB/9 in 2006 to 2.25 this year). Interestingly, Valverde hasn’t made some concerted effort to put more pitches over the plate: his Zone% has gone from 59.2% in ’06 to 53% in 2009. Rather, his Outside-Swing% has soared:

2006: 22.4%
2007: 24.4%
2008: 33%
2009: 36.4%

Rafael Soriano, Braves

Watch Out For: Mike Gonzalez

Has Soriano wrested the full-time closer’s gig from Gonzalez? It would appear that way. After all, Rafael has taken the last 8 save chances for the Braves. While the merits of the switch to more rigid bullpen management can be debated, Soriano’s set role is certainly a good thing for fantasy owners. The immensely-talented-but-fragile righty has decimated hitters for 12.02 K/9 this season, with the second-best WPA (2.97) in the bigs. His 93 MPH cheese (+2.4 runs/100 pitches) and 83 MPH slider (+2.53) have been near-unhittable this year.

Matt Capps, Pirates

The All-Star break came at an opportune time for Capps, who was throttled for 5 runs, 6 hits and two walks in a 0.1 inning debacle vs. the Phillies on the 11th. Since the respite, he has tossed three scoreless innings (one save) while whiffing 5 hitters. Don’t be totally surprised to see Capps’ name floated in trade talk over the next week; Pittsburgh’s front office is not shy about making bold moves if they feel it betters the franchise long-term. Shipping out a good-not-great reliever with a recent history of shoulder problems wouldn’t be a total shocker.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Co-Co hasn’t seen much work lately, with two appearances (1 save) since the All-Star break. The 34 year-old has experienced a rather startling drop in his K rate, from a career-high 12.22 K/9 in 2007 to 7.58 this year. A .250 BABIP and a low HR/FB rate (2.9%) make his ERA (1.66) look pristine, but there are some warning signs here. Opponents are putting the bat on the ball more often (64.5% contact rate in ’07, 77.2% in ’09) and aren’t chasing nearly as many pitches out of the zone (22.9% in 2009, two percent below the MLB average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin converted a 1.1 inning save vs. Arizona on the 19th, but blew an opportunity against the Astros on the 22nd (4 H, 2R in 0.2 IP). The Cards closer certainly hasn’t been poor this year: his K rate (7 per nine) is a career-high and his K/BB in 3.5. But his .230 BABIP, near 93% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (5.7%) suggest he’ll resume being a pretty good reliever stretched as a relief ace.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch Out For: Ryan Madson

Lidge continues to make both Phillies Phans and fantasy owners tear their hair out. Last year’s WPA leader has endured an explosive July, with 5 runs and 6 walks coughed up in 7.2 innings. Hobbled by a knee injury, Lidge has lost all semblance of control (5.91 BB/9). His fastball has arguably been the worst in baseball (-2.92 runs/100 pitches), and his trademark slider has been merely average (-0.02). How much leash will the first-place Phillies give him?

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson has worked four clean innings since the break, with one save converted vs. Pittsburgh on the 19th. Paradoxically, Wilson’s K rate has remained unchanged (9.67 in ’08, 9.76 in ’09) despite an increase in zone contact rate (81.8% to 86%), and his walk rate has dropped (from 4.04 to 3.32) despite a drop in pitches within the strike zone (54.3% to 49%).

Watch Your Back

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Is it time to move Gregg up a peg? In 11.1 July frames, he has given up 3 runs with a 9/3 K/BB, and it’s not as though Marmol (with a staggering 8.55 BB/9) has done much to inspire confidence. He’s still something short of a ninth-inning asset, but Gregg’s WPA is up to 1.34.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Watch Out For: Dan Meyer

The Marlins appear to have settled on Nunez as the 9th-inning option, with Meyer (outperforming Nunez in FIP and WPA) assuming set-up duties. Leo converted save opportunities vs. San Diego on the 20th and 21st. He has often walked the tight rope in 2009, posting a first-pitch strike percentage (55.9%) below the major league average (58.1). However, Nunez has been plenty hard to hit, with batters making contact with just 75.4% of pitches thrown within the strike zone (87.8% MLB avg).

Mike MacDougal/Joe Beimel/Sean Burnett, Nationals

Interim manager Jim Riggelman recently announced that the Nationals will use a “closer-by-committee” approach, which is a diplomatic way of saying that no one really deserves the high-leverage job.

MacDougal, Beimel and Burnett are all in play for the rarest of baseball events: a Nationals save chance. MacDougal (11/22 K/BB ratio…seriously) is throwing mid-90’s fastball after mid 90-‘s fastball with little clue as to where the ball is headed. Beimel, by contrast, has used his mid-80’s “heater”, good curve and decent changeup to post a 4.14 FIP that marks him as more decent middle-man than relief ace. Burnett, like Beimel, is a former Pirates port sider who relies on a quality breaking ball (+1.22 runs/100 pitches with the slider). Burnett’s 2.66 ERA might catch your eye, but his .206 BABIP takes some of the shine off; his FIP is 4.25.

Overall, the situation in Washington is a fantasy wasteland.