The A.L. Closer Report: 7/10

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

No Mo Runs: Rivera hasn’t seen a runner cross home plate on his watch since June 12th, a stretch of 10.1 innings in which he’s whiffed 11 and walked none. The Panama native has an obscene 43/3 K/BB ratio, with a 2.73 FIP that’s dropping like a lead balloon has his early-season homer woes subside. Rivera’s cutter is heating up:

Runs/100 for Rivera’s cutter:
April: +1.54
May: +0.57
June: +2.45
July: +6.13

Joe Nathan, Twins

There’s little to report on the Nathan front: Joe hasn’t gotten into game action since the Fourth of July, as the Bronx Bombers swept the Twins in a three-game set. Nathan’s FIP (1.88) is second among relievers, with his fastball (+3.05 runs/100), slider (+2.28) and curve (+1.70) firing on all cylinders.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria notched 4 saves this week, twirling 4.1 innings of scoreless relief vs. the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox. He K’d 7 and walked no one. In between DL stints for a barking shoulder, Soria has posted rates of 11.74 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9, giving him a career-best 4.29 K/BB ratio. Soria’s contact rate is at a career-low 70.5%, and his First-Pitch Strike% is also the best of his big league tenure (64.5%, 58% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

By no means has Papelbon been bad this season; he just hasn’t been the absolutely dominant, Irish-jigging force that we have become accustomed to seeing. Boston’s stopper has a 3.89 FIP, the product of an inflated walk rate (4.26 BB/9). His percentage of pitches within the strike zone has dropped over 4 percent from 2008, and his signature mid-to-high 90’s cheese has been merely good (+0.71 runs/100 pitches; +2.23 career average).

Of course, all of this worrying could be for naught. Fretting too much about a half-season’s worth of pitching from a reliever is a good way to get yourself in trouble by selling low. Relief performance is notoriously volatile; Papelbon could resume his fire-breathing, door-slamming performance in the second half and it wouldn’t be surprising at all.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks quietly turned in an excellent first half, with 8.79 K/9 and 1.88 BB/9. An inflated HR/FB rate (18.5%) has left his line looking merely good, but Bobby has reduced his percentage of contact within the zone nearly 10 percent from 2008 (93.1% to 83.6%). He’s missing bats, displaying sharp command and still burning worms (54.2 GB%). That’s a recipe for success.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco picked up a clean save against the Rays on the 5th, but he served up a dinger to Juan Rivera in a non-save situation vs. the Angels on the 7th (his second HR allowed since being activated from the DL). The 6-3, 230 pounder might be throwing too many strikes in July. His Zone% is 62.3 this month, and opponents have made contact with 90.6% of those offerings within the zone (his Zone% for the year is 53.7, and his Z-Contact% is 80.8). Even with the rough return, Frank holds a 4.29 K/BB for the year, with a 1.91 Win Probability Added that ranks just outside the top 10.

Andrew Bailey, Athletics

Bailey got some well-deserved rest this week. Though fantasy owners are probably gritting their teeth at Oakland’s moribund offense (the rookie stopper collected a 1.1 inning save vs. Cleveland on the 5th, and hasn’t pitched since), Bailey is on pace to toss 94 frames in 2009. That’s probably not as worrisome as it sounds, though, as Bailey is a converted starter. Four of the 25 year-old’s nine saves have tasked him with getting at least four outs. Imagine that: using your best reliever when the situation calls for it. Oakland isn’t afraid to call on Bailey to get a tough out in the 8th and then pitch the 9th, a good thing for A’s fans and Bailey owners alike.

In Control

J.P. Howell, Rays

Dan Wheeler got a save yesterday afternoon, but don’t worry too much. J.P. needed a day off after working back-to-back games against the Jays. The best reliever no one talks about, Howell’s bass-ackwards curveball and changeup-oriented arsenal has produced rates of 10.67 K/9 and 3.48 BB/9. The curve (+2.01 runs/100 pitches) and change (+3.50) have been devastating, perhaps allowing Howell’s mid-80’s heat to play up (+0.97) as hitters sit off-speed.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes picked up his 24th save of the season on July 5th, but hasn’t taken the bump since. The former Colorado southpaw has lowered his walk rate for third season (from 3.38 BB/9 in 2007 to 2.76 BB/9 in ’09), a curious development given that his percentage of pitches within the zone has dipped from 52% in ’07 to 47.1% this year. Fuentes’ slurvy breaking pitch hasn’t been sharp (-1.19 runs/100), but his 90 MPH fastball (+1.91) is perplexing opponents.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs returns from the DL just as the Blue Jays unceremoniously dump former closer B.J. Ryan (not that Ryan’s diminished high-80’s fastball and frisbee slider posed much of a threat). The 33 year-old Downs had a superb first half (28/5 K/BB, 2.14 FIP in 27.1 IP). The question going forward will be: can Downs continue to get batters to chase his high-80’s sinker and big-breaking curve? One might be inclined to think Downs’ reduced walk rate (1.65 BB/9, 3.42 BB/9 career) is the product of sharper control, but that’s not the case. His Zone% is just 44.3. Rather, his O-Swing% is at 33%, 11 percent above his career mark and 8 percent above 2008’s clip.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a save vs. the A’s on Independence Day, then another versus the White Sox yesterday. It will take a long time for Kerry’s numbers to recover, though. For the year, he has issued 4.85 BB/9, with a -0.81 WPA. Believe it or not, Wood’s 96 MPH fastball has been one of the least effective in the majors (-1.47 runs/100). After garnering a 31.3 Outside-Swing% in 2008, Wood has baited batters to chase just 18.2% of the time in Cleveland (24.9% MLB avg.). That’s the third-lowest rate among relievers.

George Sherrill, Orioles

After a superb June (11 IP, 8/2 K/BB, 1 R), Sherrill’s July has been a mixed bag. He has surrendered 3 runs in 3.2 frames, with 5 K’s and 3 walks. The 32 year-old has a career-best 1.40 WPA and walk rate (3.06 BB/9). Is it time for the O’s to cash out?

David Aardsma, Mariners

Aardsma picked up a spotless save against one of his former employers (Boston) on July 4th, but the control-challenged righty then had a disastrous appearance against Baltimore on the 8th (no outs recorded, 4 H, 5 R). He collected another SV versus the Rangers yesterday. Aardsma remains a good candidate to regress in the second half.

Watch Your Back

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

After a turbulent June (12 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 10/10 K/BB), Rodney has posted a 7/1 K/BB ratio in July. Still, Rodney’s K rate (8.05 per nine) is down, his Zone% (48.3) is a career-low, and opponents are making contact with his pitches within the zone at the highest rate (82.8%) since 2002.