For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Oh no, Mo: Rivera was stung for 4 runs in 0.2 innings against the Rays on June 6th, before collecting saves against Tampa the next two nights. While there’s some “what’s wrong with Rivera?!” hysteria going around, the answer might simply be, not much. His 3.20 ERA looks inflated, but a .336 BABIP and a very high HR/FB rate (23.8%, compared to a 6.6% career average) portend to better days ahead. He has a 15.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, folks. He’s okay.

Joakim Soria, Royals

Soria only got into one game this week (mop-up work in a 6-2 win over the Jays on the 6th), as the Royals plummet in the standings (10 losses in 11 games). Fun fact: Soria’s curve has been +2.7 runs above average in 2009 (7th among relievers), despite his throwing just 10.1 innings thus far.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan picked up two saves this week, against the Mariners on the 5th and the Athletics on the 9th. Joe’s 5.2 K/BB ratio is his highest mark since 2006, and he’s tossing a first-pitch strike 67.1 percent of the time (57.9% MLB average). He’s also jamming plenty of hitters, with a 21.7 infield/flyball percentage.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Boston’s stopper converted a save op versus the Tigers on June 4th, then pitched a scoreless inning in a losing effort against Texas on the 7th. Papelbon’s fastball (used nearly 80% of the time) hasn’t quite been the dominating offering of years past. His heater’s run value was +3.29 per 100 pitches in 2007 and +2.21 in 2008, but just +0.93 this season. Then again, an “off” year for the 28 year-old is still pretty darned good: his WPA sits at 1.57, 8th among relievers.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks gave up a run in a none-save situation vs. the Indians on the 5th, but came back to get a save the next night with a scoreless frame. Bobby has given up more dingers than one would expect (15 HR/FB%), but otherwise he has been quite good. His 3.4 K/BB ratio is well above last year’s 2.24 mark, and his contact rate is down about 6 percent from last season.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Unfortunately, Frank is still plagued by shoulder soreness. Francisco hasn’t pitched since June 3rd, making a retroactive DL stint a possibility. C.J. Wilson gets any chances that come until Francisco is mended, but his 16/12 K/BB ratio and -0.12 WPA will have you reaching for the Tums if you’re forced to turn to him.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

After issuing just 2 free passes during the entire month of May, Downs walked two in 2.1 innings this past week. He still owns a sterling 25 K’s and 4 walks in 25.1 innings, good for a 6.25 K/BB ratio that nearly triples last season’s mark.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood continues to be wild, with 2 walks in 2.1 saveless frames this past week. Unable to locate his fastball (which has gone from a +0.75 run value per 100 pitches in ’08 to a lousy -2.6 in ’09), Wood isn’t getting anyone to chase his stuff out of the zone. His 17.4 Outside-Swing% is fourth-worst among all relievers, with other control-challenged wrecks like Evan Meek and DFA’d Hayden Penn in the same neighborhood. With -0.1 WAR, Wood isn’t providing the kind of stability that the Tribe had in mind when they dished out 2 years and $20.5M on the free agent market.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes notched 3 saves this week, collecting one against the Jays on the 4th, the Tigers on the 5th and the Rays on the 9th. A .361 BABIP has done him no favors, though opponents are making contact against the former Rockie 79.5% of the time, well above any other season dating back to 2002. The increase has come primarily on pitches within the strike zone (88 Z-Contact% in 2009, compared to 80.4% in 2008; the MLB average is 87.7%).

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Luckily for fantasy owners, Bailey appears to be the man in Oakland. He picked up saves on the 7th and the 8th, and if he continues to get the call, he’ll be in “Death Grip” territory in short order. Bailey now has a 44/14 K/BB ratio in 37.1 innings, with a 2.92 FIP. The 25 year-old rookie has the stuff and strikeout potential to be an elite reliever.

George Sherrill, Orioles

George gave out a run and a walk over two appearances this week, notching a save against his former team (the Mariners) last night. Sherrill’s 3.04 BB/9 is the lowest rate of his career, though opposing hitters are increasingly making more contact with his stuff. Sherrill’s K rate, 11.04 per nine in ’07, dropped to 9.79 in ’08 and 8.37 this season. Over that same time frame, his Z-Contact rate (the contact rate on pitches within the strike zone) has jumped from 80.8 in ’07, 84.2 in ’08 and 92 in 2009. That’s the 9th-highest rate of zone contact among all relievers.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for:Joel Zumaya

Uh oh: Rodney resembled his former wild-child self this past week. In 4 frames and five appearances, Fernando was torched for 6 runs and five walks, including 3 runs and 3 walks without getting an out versus the White Sox last night. Rodney had seemingly made strides in painting the corners, but he has located just 46.3% of his pitches within the zone during the month of June, compared to 48.8% in May and 58.7% in April.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Aardsma recovered from a bumpy 3-run fiasco on May 31st to post scoreless innings on June 3rd, 5th and 6th. He’s still asking for trouble, however, with 2 more walks in 3 innings. The chances of a guy remaining effective with a walk rate pushing six and a half are between slim and none. Selling high here would likely be the best option, unless you want to wager that Aardsma’s 87.1% strand rate (73.5% career average) and .247 BABIP (.316 career) will persist.

Morrow took baby steps toward reclaiming the ninth-inning gig, tossing 3 innings of scoreless baseball. Here’s a question: since we can pretty much rule out a return to the rotation for the former Cal star, would it be best for the M’s to leave Morrow where he is, soaking up a few innings at a time (4 of his last 6 relief appearances have gone 2 or more innings)? Why can’t Morrow become a Tekulve-like bullpen arm, going 2-3 innings every few days?

Update: Um, scratch that. Apparently, Morrow WILL go back to the rotation. Tune in tomorrow for the next episode of “As the Morrow Turns.”

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

So, who’s the guy here? Howell picked up a save against the Royals on June 4th, and he’s by far the most intriguing option. J.P. has K’d 11.1 batters per nine innings, with a 2.37 FIP. Southpaw specialist Choate also picked up a save, but he likely isn’t a serious contender. Howell is the most talented guy, but might he be better utilized in his customary 4 and 5 out appearances than in a strict, rigid 9th inning role?

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

It’s something of an upset when a batter makes contact against Big Jon these days, and downright stunning when the opposition actually plates a run. Broxton coughed a run against the Padres last night, but still tallied the save (his 14th). He struck out 7 hitters in three innings this week, taking his astronomical K rate up to 14.7. For reference, that’s nearly 2 whiffs per nine innings higher than second-place Matt Thornton.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath was a little wild this week, with 3 walks in 4 innings, but he locked up two more saves and punched out 5 batters as well. Bell has yet to give up a dinger in 25.1 innings (Thanks, PETCO!), and opponents have just a 13.8% line drive rate against San Diego’s stopper. Bell has a career-best 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings, the 8th-highest rate among relievers.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod chucked 3 scoreless innings this week, picking up two saves along the way. His 2.28 WPA trails only Broxton among all relievers, and his percentage of contact within the strike zone (79.5%) is at its lowest rate since 2004. Rodriguez is generating a boatload of flyballs (52.2 FB%), but he’s also jamming plenty of batters with a career-high 20% infield/flyball rate.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

We’re now well into June, and Hoffman has still yet to give up a run in his Milwaukee threads. That’s 17 innings, for those of you scoring at home. His K/BB ratio is 15/1. A .175 BABIP and zero homers allowed help explain part of the run, but he’s also been pretty damned good. You could make the argument that his revered changeup has never been better, with a run value of +7.02 runs per 100 pitches (his best mark on record since 2002).

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls’ forearm tightness appears to be a little more troublesome than once thought. Said Qualls, “I don’t think it’s going to be something that’s going to just heal overnight.” If he has to miss any significant amount of time, either Tony Pena (3.07 FIP) or Juan Gutierrez (2.60) would likely get the call.

In Control

Ryan Madson, Phillies (Brad Lidge on the DL with a knee injury)

Just when it looked like Lidge was getting back on track, he blows back-to-back games against the Dodgers on June 5th and 6th (1.2 IP, 3 R) and then hits the DL with continued knee problems. It’s the same knee that Lidge had surgery on during the offseason.

With Lights Out knocked out, Madson will take the reins in Philly. His qualifications couldn’t be much stronger: the 6-6 righty has punched out 31 hitters in 28.1 frames and holds a 1.03 WPA. Madson sustained a spike in velocity from last summer, averaging a scorching 95 MPH with the pitch and backing it up with a devastating 83 MPH change as well as a 90 MPH cutter. Opponents are making contact with 78.2% of pitches thrown by Madson within the strike zone, one of the lowest rates among relievers, and his 33.5 Outside-Swing% ranks in the top 10 among ‘pen arms. If he’s available in your league? Run, don’t walk, to the waiver wire.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero chucked four scoreless frames this week, though only one came in a save opportunity. He has still yet to serve up a long ball in 26 innings. Cordero’s whiff rate is down for a third straight season (12.22 K/9 in 2007, 9.98 in 2008, 8.31 in 2009), and hitters are making contact at Coco’s offerings 76.2% of the time (the highest rate we have going back to 2002). On the positive side, a lot of that increased contact is coming on pitcher’s pitches thrown outside of the strike zone: his contact rate on pitches in the zone is largely unchanged, while his outside-contact% has spiked over the past three years (35.1% in ’07, 53.9 in ’08, 62.3 in ’09).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps collected a save against the Astros on June 6th, but that was the extent of his work for the week as the Pirates drop four of their last five contests. Exhibit A of why velocity isn’t everything for a pitcher: Capps’s fastball is cracking the radar gun at a career-best 93.3 MPH, but his run value with the pitch is at a career-worst +0.46 (1.73 in 2008 and 2.22 in 2007).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street racked up back-to-back saves on June 8th (Cardinals) and 9th (Brewers), taking him up to 10 for the season. Huston’s 3.57 K/BB is well above last year’s pace (2.56). His fastball has been roasted (-1.41 runs per 100 pitches), but his oft-utilized slider (+3.44) and re-emphasized changeup (+2.23) are getting the job done.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins tossed two innings this week, with a scoreless frame in a non-save situation against Pittsburgh on the 6th and a 1 inning, 1 run appearance against the Cubs the following night while picking up the save. Overall, it’s hard to quibble with Hawkins’ work while filling in for Valverde. He has nearly a K per inning (23 in 24.2 frames), and his emphasis on a high-80’s cutter/slider has been wise. The pitch has been worth +2.43 runs per 100 pitches.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin made just one appearance this week, tossing a scoreless frame in mop-up duty against the Rockies on June 7th. The former Mariner, Phillie and Red has a 16/5 K/BB ratio in 22 innings, with 13 saves in 14 chances. A .178 BABIP suggests that his tiny 1.23 ERA will rise in the coming months.

Brian Wilson, Giants

San Fran’s mohawked stopper hasn’t surrendered a run since May 21st, a stretch of 7.1 innings in which he has punched out 8 batters but also walked four. Wilson’s walk rate is up for the third straight season (2.66 BB/9 in ’07, 4.04 in ’08, 4.23 in ’09), and his First-Pitch Strike% is down for the third consecutive campaign (61.3, 57.7, 55.4; the MLB average is 57.9). Wilson’s WPA checks in at a tepid -0.72.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano picked up the save last evening versus the Pirates, running his scoreless innings streak up to 10.2 in the process. Like it or not, Braves skipper Bobby Cox continues to use his two relief aces in situations that best call for their skills, be that the 8th or 9th frame of the ballgame. With lefty Nyjer Morgan, switch-hitter Delywyn Young and southpaw Adam LaRoche due up, Cox called upon Gonzalez in the 8th inning. Gonzo hasn’t shown any sort of platoon split during his career (he has actually been somewhat better vs. RHB), but Morgan (career .566 OPS vs. LHP) and LaRoche (.749) have.

Gonzalez (8 saves) and Soriano (5) will likely continue this time-share for the rest of the year. It might be frustrating to fantasy owners, but it’s probably what’s best for the Braves.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom hacked up 2 runs and 2 walks against the Giants on June 6th, then picked up a W in a 4-3 contest with the Cardinals last night. His bread-and-butter heater has been worth -0.84 runs per 100 pitches, a marked dip from the +1.08 mark posted in 2008. With Lindstrom showing such poor control, opponents are smartly laying off his pitches (41 Swing Percentage, 10 percent lower than last year).

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Well, Hanrahan has apparently been booted from the closer role for what feels like the tenth time this season. Taking his place will be MacDougal, he of frequent injuries and a career walk rate of 4.58 per nine innings. The lanky right-hander has handed out 9 walks in 9 frames for the Nats. He’s pretty darned similar to Hanrahan from a performance standpoint, possessing tantalizing mid-90’s heat but generally having no idea where it’s headed.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol/Angel Guzman

By all accounts, Gregg is turning in a mediocre first season with the Cubs. The erstwhile Marlin is fooling his fair share of batters (9.95 K/9), but his walk rate is still over four and a half, with a 5.12 FIP and a WPA barely in the black (0.07).

Fortunately for Gregg, his control looks downright Maddux-esque compared to that of his set-up man. With a wicked (if wild) slider, Marmol has long made hitters look goofy. But his K rate is down for a third year (12.56 in ’07, 11.75 in ’08, 9.67 in ’09), and his walk rate has devolved from troublesome to untenable (27 free passes in 27 innings).

With the 8th and 9th inning dudes scuffling and the Cubbies bullpen doing sloppy work in general (27th in reliever FIP), could Guzman sneak his way into the competition? The perennial Venezuelan prospect has avoided the trainer’s table for a change, and he’s dealing: 25 whiffs and 8 walks in 27.2 innings. Blessed with mid-90’s gas and a devilish slider of his own, the 27 year-old bears watching. Guzman leads Chicago’s ‘pen arms in FIP and WPA.

With young pitchers Jason Motte and Chris Perez already filling important roles in the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen, the club has turned to another highly-rated relief prospect. Right-hander Jess Todd was promoted to The Show yesterday.

The 23-year-old hurler was the club’s second round draft pick out of the University of Arkansas in 2007. Todd flew through the minors and posted an overall ERA of just 2.87 in 235.2 innings of work. He spent time in college – as well as the low minors – as both a reliever and starter, but his approach and stuff is best-suited to relief work, which is the role he fulfilled at triple-A in 2009.

Todd allowed just 18 hits and seven walks (2.59 BB/9) in 24.1 innings of work this year. Opponents mustered just one home run (0.37 HR/9) against the hard-throwing reliever and struck out 32 times (11.84 K/9). Right-handed batters were hitting just .130 against Todd at triple-A, although lefties were hitting .297. His career splits are similar: .190 vs right-handed batters, .250 vs left-handed batters.

Todd is a sinker/slider pitcher, who can reach back and touch 94 mph with his fastball when he needs a little extra juice. His best pitch is his cutter, which is also the newest pitch in his arsenal. He’s done a good job of inducing ground balls with his sinker (career 50 GB%), and he has also limited the number of line drives hit against him (14%). Although he does not touch the mid-to-high 90s with has fastball like a lot of closers, Todd has the potential to be a dominating late-game reliever because of his combination of command/control, the movement on the cutter, and his ground-ball tendencies.

Here is a snippet from Todd’s 2007 pre-draft scouting report from Baseball America:

[Todd] opened the spring as the Razorbacks’ closer, and scouts envision him as a late-inning reliever in pro ball. Todd’s size (6 feet, 213 pounds) and violent delivery lend themselves more to that role, though he has shown a deep repertoire, command and durability as a college starter. His competitive nature will help succeed in either capacity.

With Motte (age 26) and Perez (23) also in the bullpen, the Cardinals organization has makings of a talented 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the bullpen, which could remain dominant for many years, barring injury.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

How dominant has Broxton been this season? Let’s count the ways:

– His FIP checks in at a subatomic 1.27
– His strikeout rate (14.19 K/9) would be pretty good if cut in half
– Broxton’s slider deserves its own “Chuck Norris facts” page: the wicked high-80’s offering has been worth +5.1 runs per 100 pitches.

Yeah, he’s pretty good.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath actually looked mortal this week, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs while blowing a save against the Rockies on May 30th. His K/BB ratio still comes in at 26/6 for the year, with a 1.17 WPA. Interestingly, Bell’s percentage of pitches thrown within the strike zone has decreased every season since 2005, from 60.9% that year to just 46.2% in 2009 (49% MLB average). However, his Outside Swing% is also at an all-time high of 30.2% this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Frankie gave up 1 run in 3 innings of work this week, punching out 6 batters in the process but only getting one save. Rodriguez’s fastball (+0.76 runs per 100 pitches), curve (+1.31) and change (+3.89) have all been effective in his first campaign in Queens.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls took some time off this week due to forearm tightness, missing four games. The club isn’t said to be deeply concerned. Qualls notched a save against the Braves on May 28th before the forearm started barking.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman enters “Death Grip” real estate, as he has been better in Milwaukee than just about anyone could have hoped for. With two clean saves this week, the longtime Padre now has a 15-inning scoreless streak going. The wacky .175 BABIP and 0.0 HR/FB% just won’t continue, but it’s hard to argue with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. Hoffman’s modest mid-80’s heater (+4.35 runs per 100 pitches), slider (+3.47) and changeup (+6.47) are firing on all cylinders.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

After surrendering a stunning 13 runs in 10 innings from May 5th to the 24th, Lidge is beginning to make amends with five scoreless appearances and five saves since. The Notre Dame product has a 5/1 K/BB ratio during that stretch, and his velocity is trending up (the right-hand portion of the graph is 2009):

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero made only one appearance this week, with a save against the Cardinals on June 1st. After issuing 4.86 BB/9 last season, Cincy’s closer has walked 2.86 per nine innings in 2009. Perhaps that has something to do with his pitch selection: after tossing a slider 37.3% of the time in 2008 and featuring his fastball just 52%, Cordero has reduced his slider usage to 21.6% in 2009 with a big bump in heaters (68.4%).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps received just about the best news possible after nearly having his arm torn off by a Geovany Soto line drive: he just had a really nasty bruise. Instead of hitting the DL, the 255 pound right-hander collected 3 saves (one against Houston on May 30th and two against the Mets on June 1st and 2nd). The saves against New York came without a walk, good news considering his prior control issues. Capps has located 53.1% of his pitches within the strike zone. That’s still 4 percent above the league average, but it’s also a far cry from his 59.5% career average.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin worked 3.1 innings this week, with two saves, one walk and a K. Considering that his FIP (3.73) is leaps and bounds above his ERA (1.29), Franklin seems like a good candidate to regress. On the positive side, his 80.7% contact rate is just around the major league average, and is his lowest mark we have on record going back to 2002.

Huston Street, Rockies

Huston had an up-and-down week. He worked a scoreless inning vs. the Dodgers on May 27th, then picked up a save against the Padres on the 29th. Unfortunately, he gave up a run the following night against San Diego, then blew a save against the Astros last night while issuing 2 walks. However, Street has done a nice job for the most part (24/7 K/BB ratio in 22.1 IP), and it’s not as though the Rockies are rife with possible replacements.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson is back on his feet following a nasty run of appearances in the middle of May (7 runs from May 14th to the 21st). He has 4 scoreless innings to his name since then, with 3 saves and zero walks allowed. Opponents have typically chased very few of Wilson’s pitches out of the strike zone (18.7% career), but he got them to offer at 36.8% of such pitches this past week.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins closed the door versus the Bucs on May 31st and the Rockies on June 1st, then tossed another scoreless frame against Colorado the following night. His 2.75 K/BB ratio is his best mark since 2004, and his hard slider/cutter has been worth +3.22 runs per 100 pitches in 2009. Hawkins has increased the usage of the pitch, from 19.7% in ’09 to 27.1% this year.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

With 12.52 K/9, Gonzalez is mowing down hitters at the highest rate of his career. He still gives Bobby Cox heartburn some nights, though, with 4.3 BB/9. Soriano, meanwhile, has also used his fastball/slider combo to good effect (12.17 K/9, 3.04 BB/9). Per FIP (Soriano 2.14, Gonzo 3.07) and WPA (Soriano 1.69, Gonzalez 0.51), Rafael has been the better option.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom remains on precarious ground, with a ghastly 22/17 K/BB ratio in 21.2 IP. His blistering mid-to-high 90’s fastball was worth +1.08 runs per 100 pitches last year, but that number has dipped all the way to -1.15 in 2009. Lindstrom’s loss of the strike zone is a continuation of a troubling three-year trend:

2007: 2.82 BB/9, 54.0 Zone% (% of pitches in strike zone)
2008: 4.08 BB/9, 51.5 Zone%
2009: 7.06 BB/9, 48.3 Zone%

Julian Tavarez(?) / Kip Wells / Joe Beimel / Joel Hanrahan / Ron Villone(huh?) / Mike MacDougal, Nationals

Is there a less relevant fantasy position than Nationals closer? It’s sort of like the baseball version of the Indianapolis Colts punter; someone is ostensibly paid to do the job, we just never see him. With a -64 run differential and a 14-36 record, there just aren’t that many chances. The recently activated MacDougal could also work his way into this jumble of relievers, which holds an abysmal -5.67 team WPA (last in the majors).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg was smacked around yet again last night, coughing up 2 runs and blowing a save against the Braves. Like Lindstrom, Gregg just continues to see his control erode:

2006: 2.41 BB/9, 53.1 Zone%
2007: 4.29 BB/9, 50.4 Zone%
2008: 4.85 BB/9, 49.5 Zone%
2009: 5.24 BB/9, 43.7 Zone%

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Mo was two-for-two in save chances this past week, slamming the door on Cleveland on May 29th and June 1st. Rivera’s K/BB ratio sits at an absurd 26/1, and he’s climbing up the WPA leader board (15th at the moment, despite an inflated .313 BABIP and 27.8 HR/FB rate).

Joakim Soria, Royals

The Mexicutioner returns, and not a moment too soon for Kansas City fans, whose faces turned royal blue while watching Juan Cruz back himself into a corner on a nightly basis. Soria’s shoulder bears close monitoring, but he returns to a line that includes a 2.24 FIP and 10 K’s in 8.2 innings.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan was a busy man this week, logging three saves against three different opponents (Boston, Tampa Bay and Cleveland). He struck out 4 batters in 3.1 frames, and he hasn’t surrendered a run since May 15th ( a stretch of six innings). His K/BB ratio is back up to a sterling 4.40, and he’s tossing a first pitch strike 66.3% of the time (57.9% MLB average).

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Uncharacteristically wild to begin the year, Papelbon allayed some panic-stricken Sox faithful with 4 K’s and no free passes in 2 innings this past week. If Papelbon can hit his spots more consistently, his career-low 46.1 opponent Swing% will increase.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks picked up two saves against the scuffling Royals on May 30th and 31st. He’s throwing his fastball nearly 2 MPH faster than last season (95.3 MPH, compared to 93.8 in ’08), but with less effectiveness (-0.66 runs per 100 pitches; +1.55 in 2008). Conversely, his slider (+3.59 per 100 pitches) and curveball (+4.19) are giving batters fits.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

Francisco collected a save on May 29th, before suffering his first loss of the season on the 31st while finally giving up a run. Frank’s scoreless appearances streak reached 17 before the A’s got to him, and his K/BB ratio sits at 19/5 for the year. His mid-80’s splitter has been a devastating pitch, with a run value of +4.67 per 100 pitches for the season.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood picked up a W against the Rays on May 28th and a save versus the Yankees on the 31st. Woody was wild early on, but he has issued only 1 walk in his last 4 innings. That’s not some world-beating stretch, but it certainly bests his 5-walk, two inning streak from May 17th to the 20th. Wood’s WPA sits at -0.33 for the season.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs blew a save versus the O’s on May 27th, but he recovered to notch two against Boston on the 29th and 30th. He’s done an excellent job in getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate, with a 33.3 Outside-Swing% (24.5% MLB average). That helps explain how Downs has a microscopic walk rate (0.78 BB/9) despite locating just 45.1% of his pitches within the strike zone (49% MLB average).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney hasn’t allowed a run to cross home plate on his watch since May 10th, a streak of 9 innings in which he has racked up 4 saves while issuing just two walks. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn in 2008 (6.69 BB/9), Rodney has issued 2.57 BB/9 in ’09 while generating groundballs at a 54.2% clip. His fastball, long thrown with plus velocity but little effectiveness (-0.45 runs per 100 pitches during his career), has been worth +2.09 runs per 100 tosses this season. His nasty changeup/splitter checks in at +2.89 per 100 pitches to boot.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes was generally effective during the month of May (converting 8 saves), but he ended on a sour note with a 3-run, 3-hit blown save against Seattle on the 30th. He’s whiffing 9.16 hitters per nine with 2.89 BB/9, but a .373 BABIP has put a damper on Fuentes’ numbers. There are some concerning signs, though: his 80.7% contact rate is over 5 percent higher than any other season we have dating back to 2002, and his sweeping curveball has been lacking. The pitch was worth +6.27 runs per 100 pitches in 2007, -1.79 in 2008 and -2.70 this season.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Streaking Sherrill: Baltimore’s stopper is sad to see the calendar flip to June, as he went on a May tear. The 32 year-old southpaw allowed just a single run in 11 frames, and he’s currently on an 11-inning scoreless streak with a perfect frame against the Mariners on June 1st. Typically wild (career 4.43 BB/9, 5.57 BB/9 in 2008), Sherrill has given up 2.91 walks per nine innings in 2009.

Watch Your Back

Andrew Bailey/Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Ziegler (3.25 FIP, 66.2 GB%) hasn’t been bad, but Bailey has been a revelation out of the ‘pen for the A’s in 2009. Armed with low-90’s heat, a high-80’s cutter that saws off bats and a mid-70’s curve, Bailey has punched out 38 hitters in 32.1 innings. Batters have made contact with just 66.2% of his pitches, which ranks 5th among relievers. It’s not entirely clear who will get the 9th inning call on any given night, but owners have to be rooting for Bailey, given his strikeout potential.

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

The law of averages caught up with Aardsma on May 31st, as he was rocked for 3 runs in 0.2 innings against the Angels, dishing out four walks in the process. His ERA (2.13) might look impressive, but Aardsma is walking a disturbing 6.39 batters per nine innings. It’s near impossible to remain effective while putting one’s self in jams so frequently. So far, a .236 BABIP and the highest strand rate of his career (85.4%) have allowed for the Houdini act, but Aardsma could be in for a rough go of it in the months to come.

Morrow, meanwhile, isn’t exactly buttressing his case to get the closer’s role back. He made just one appearance this week, coughing up 3 hits, 2 runs and a walk to the A’s on May 30th. Morrow’s K/BB ratio sits at an ugly 18/14 in 15.1 IP.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)/Lance Cormier/Joe Nelson, Rays

It’s tough to get a read on Tampa’s situation. Howell (2.30 FIP) has certainly been the best of the bunch, but Rays manager Joe Maddon would likely rather keep the former starter available for multi-inning appearances. Izzy is having an awkward introduction in Tampa, with 5 walks in 5.2 innings. Cormier has a 2.19 ERA, but that figure is at least somewhat the product of a .243 BABIP and a very low homer rate. Your guess is as good as mine here.

Perhaps lost in the hoopla of recent, more highly-anticipated, promotions such as Matt Wieters and David Price, the Arizona Diamondbacks organization called up one of the key players in its future.

Reliever Daniel Schlereth was promoted from double-A on May 29. The hard-throwing left-hander was the club’s first round draft pick (26th overall) out of the University of Arizona in the 2008 MLB amateur draft. It took the 23-year-old hurler just 25 minor league games to prove his MLB-readiness in the Diamondbacks’ eyes. During that span, he posted a 1.45 ERA and rates of 5.5 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9. Obviously, the walk rate is a concern at this point, especially with it sitting at 6.2 BB/9 in 2009 at double-A.

There are definitely some other key statistics with Schlereth’s 2009 minor league performance to date, including the nine hits allowed in 19 innings (4.3 H/9). He’s tough to hit when he gets the ball over the plate. As well, his fastball sits in the low 90s (He’s averaging 93 mph in his two MLB games) and it can touch the mid-to-upper 90s. His curveball is also very good and he’s quite confident in it, as witnessed by his willingness to throw it 43% of the time in his brief MLB career (two appearances, and innings).

In those two big league innings, Schlereth has yet to allow a run and he’s walked one while also striking out a batter. Of the outs made in play, four have come via the groundball and just one was in the air. In his pro career, Schlereth has a 55.4% groundball rate. His line-drive rate is even better at just 9.2% (His BABIP-allowed is .254).

The southpaw reliever is not going to inherit the Diamondbacks’ closer role right away, but he is definitely the odds-on-favorite to claim the job in the not-too-distant future. Current closer Chad Qualls is just 30 years old, but he’ll be a free agent after the 2010 season and the Arizona organization is one of the more cost-conscious clubs around. Qualls is also just 27-for-49 in career save opportunities, so he is not amongst the elite closers in the game (although he is 12-for-14 this season).

Schlereth is a player that deserves to be monitored over the next year or two as he should eventually begin to earn save opportunities. If Arizona wanted to be proactive, the club could start mixing in the save opportunities now, with the season already looking bleak in terms of playoff opportunities. Schlereth and Qualls could make a nice lefty-righty closer combo, with lefties hitting .325 off the latter in 2009.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

Rivera gave up a run versus the Orioles on the 20th, but he turned in two pristine innings on the 21st (a save op versus the O’s) and the 24th against the Phillies as his counterpart (Lidge) was busy spontaneously combusting. Mo has 24 K’s and just a single walk on his ledger in 19.2 innings. A wacky HR/FB rate (31.3%) has put a damper on his numbers (relatively speaking), but he’s as nasty as ever.

Joe Nathan, Twins

Nathan has recovered nicely from a 3-run debacle against the Yankees on the 15th, with 2.2 scoreless innings in three appearances (1 save chance). His FIP sits at 3.45 for the season, with an uncharacteristic -0.01 WPA.

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks converted a save against those pesky Pirates on the 22nd, but he served up a tater to Jack Wilson on the 24th while blowing a save opportunity. His WPA comes in at 0.10 for the season, with a 4.79 FIP.

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Is it time to be at least mildly concerned about Boston’s relief ace? He has given up 4 runs in his last two innings, with 11 walks in 21 innings overall. Papelbon’s fastball hasn’t been quite as effective this year: according to the new linear weights section on his player page, Papelbon’s cheddar has been worth +0.66 runs per 100 pitches in 2009, compared to +2.21 in 2008 and +3.29 in 2007.

Frank Francisco, Rangers

He’s back: Francisco came off the DL this week and didn’t skip a beat, tossing two scoreless innings and tallying one save. That’s 16.2 clean innings, for those of you keeping score at home. Sure, he has yet to give up a homer and his BABIP is .225, but Francisco also has a 4.0 K/BB ratio.

Kerry Wood, Indians

Wood racked up two saves in 3 appearances this week, though the first save chance was turbulent (3 walks against the Royals on the 20th). With a .358 BABIP and 2.25 HR/9, Wood hasn’t had many bounces go his way. Still, he’ll need to hit his spots with more regularity (5.63 BB/9), lest he set a bad example for the rest of Cleveland’s savage bullpen.

In Control

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

Downs tossed just one inning this week (3 hits, 2 R against the O’s on the 26th), as the Jays suddenly dive back toward earth, poised to roost in their customary fourth-place spot. With B. J. Ryan still failing to crack 89-90 MPH on the radar gun, Downs’ ninth-inning gig looks safe. With a 23/2 K/BB, the low-profile lefty has earned his keep.

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes racked up back-to-back saves against the Mariners and Dodgers on the 21st and 22nd, then served up a run against LA on the 24th in a non-save situation. His 4.32 ERA looks sort of inflated, but a 3.10 FIP suggests that Fuentes should enjoy better days from here on out.

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

After converting save chances on the 20th and 21st against Texas, Rodney has lounged without around without getting into a ballgame. Normally a high-octane hurler lacking fine touch, Rodney is both punching out fewer hitters (6.5 K/9) and surrendering fewer free passes (2.5 BB/9). The net effect, should it stick, is positive: Rodney’s 3.27 FIP is the lowest of his career. Some of that is due to a 0.5 HR/9 mark, but he’s also generating grounders (51 GB%) at his highest rate since 2006.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz finally fell off the tight rope this week, as his 13/12 K/BB ratio caught up with him in a big way: 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning versus the Indians on the 21st. Soria, meanwhile, is making progress toward a much-anticipated return. He is expected to start a rehab assignment today.

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler took a loss against the Rays on the 21st, then recovered to toss two scoreless frames on the 23rd and 24th against Arizona (no saves. Darn.) Brad hasn’t received much support from his teammates, with a whopping .376 BABIP. Orlando Cabrera (-6.6 UZR/150) hasn’t contributed on either side of the ball thus far, and Jason Giambi (-29.3 UZR/150) has shown about as much range as a mastodon in a tar pit.

George Sherrill, Orioles

Sherrill had a superb week at the office, earning 3 saves and tossing four clean innings. He struck out 7 batters in the process, without issuing a single walk. His FIP is down to 4.08 for the season, and Sherrill appears to have a firmer grasp on his job for the time being, considering Chris Ray’s acts of arsonry.

Watch Your Back

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Would you believe that Aardsma ranks second among all relievers in WPA, at +2.20? It’s true: the well-traveled flame-thrower takes a back seat only to Texas’ Francisco. While Aardsma may rank 2nd in the category and first alphabetically, he continues to tempt fate with 13 walks in 21.2 innings. The 1.25 ERA looks great, but a .212 BABIP and a 93% strand rate suggest that anyone expecting sustained dominance will be disappointed.

In other M’s news, Morrow is attempting to work his way out of reliever purgatory. He threw four scoreless frames in two appearances this week, though his control is still Aardsma-like (2 walks against the A’s on the 25th). Just 43.9% of Morrow’s pitches have crossed home plate.

Jason Isringhausen/Dan Wheeler/J.P. Howell(?)

With Percival possibly headed for retirement rather than rehabbing his latest ailment (shoulder tendinitis), the Rays will pick and choose from a number of different options, including the recently-activated Isringhausen. Izzy tossed 3 spotless innings to start his abbreviated season, but he blew his first save chance against the Indians on the 25th (2 R, 3 BB’s).

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton saw game action twice this week, posting a spotless inning against the Mets on the 20th and then chucking 2 perfect innings against the Angels on the 23rd. His fastball, always buzzing, is up to 97.5 MPH from last year’s 96.3 and 2007’s 95.2. In fact, Broxton has increased the velocity on his cheese every year in the majors. Big Jon’s 1.83 WPA ranks 4th among relievers, and his 1.16 FIP ranks first.

Heath Bell, Padres

It finally happened: Heath actually had a runner cross home plate on his watch, as he surrendered 4 hits and a run against the Giants on the 21st. He has since converted two saves, a 0.1 inning gimme against the Cubs on the 22nd and a 1-inning opportunity versus the D-Backs on the 25th. Bell’s 94 MPH heater and hard slider are generating outside swings 31.2% of the time.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod gave fantasy owners quite the scare this week. He collapsed outside of New York’s clubhouse with severe back pain, and was even placed on a stretcher. Fortunately, Rodriguez was well enough to convert a save op against the Nationals on the 25th, taking him up to 13 for the season. That’s a nice tally and the 0.83 ERA looks sparkling, but his K/BB ratio has declined for the fourth straight season: 3.5 in 2006, 2.65 in 2007, 2.26 in 2008 and 2.1 in 2009.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls had a squalid week, coughing up 4 runs and 8 hits in five innings. His numbers are still sturdy for the year: a 5.5 K/BB ratio, with a 2.36 FIP. His BABIP is up to .379, one of the highest marks among all relievers. If you can coax a skittish owner to surrender Qualls, go for it.

In Control

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor still hasn’t surrendered a run in his new digs, running his scoreless inning tally up to 13. He’s 11-for-11 in save chances, has yet to give up a walk and he has snuck into the top 10 in WPA. Eventually he’s going to serve up some homers (he has yet to do that either), but Hoffman has been outstanding for the Brewers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cincinnati’s stopper saw plenty of action this week, tossing five scoreless innings, whiffing four batters while walking none, and notching 3 saves along the way. Cordero’s 1.71 ERA overstates his case somewhat (he’s managed to avoid a single HR in 21 IP), but he has improved his walk rate from 4.86 in 2008 to 3.0 this season.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Mr. Capps would very much like to turn back the clock to March, and try this whole..2009 thing over again. The 25 year-old began the season by showing uncharacteristically sloppy control while battling an elbow problem. Just when he was getting back in a groove (2 spotless save ops on the 20th and the 24th), Capps’s right elbow was smashed by a Geovany Soto liner on the 25th. He may well be placed on the DL, and John Grabow looks like the man to take over ninth inning duties in such a scenario. Grabow is a Sherrill-esque lefty, who can miss some bats but is also too generous with the free passes.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Not a single thing has gone right for Lidge since he made Eric Hinske jelly-legged on a slider last October. He was due for some regression in the homer department after surrendering just two long bombs in 2008 (3.9 HR/FB%), but this is getting ridiculous: Lidge’s HR/FB percentage sits at 19.4. After leading the majors in WPA in 2008, Lidge ranks second-to-last this season: only Brandon Lyon has been more hazardous to his team’s chances of victory. The Yankees (and A Rod in particular) victimized “Lights Out” for 4 runs in 1.1 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin hasn’t worked since the 21st when he converted a cakewalk 0.1 inning save against the Cubs. His ERA (1.53) is sterling, but his 3.79 FIP and microscopic .187 BABIP suggest that the good times might not continue to roll.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street collected his 100th career save this week with a 2 K, 2 walk inning against the Tigers on 23rd. He tallied another one the next night, and Street’s K/BB ratio is up to 4.20 for the season. His first-pitch strike percentage sits at an impressive 72.4 percent, fifth among all relievers.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a rough go of it against the temporarily-surging Padres on the 21st, giving up two runs and two walks while blowing the save op. He had a clean inning for a save against the Braves on the 25th, but Wilson’s WPA sits at a nasty -1.46 for the year. That sandwiches him between Lidge and Brandon Morrow, two other late-inning options having seasons to forget.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins pitched 3 frames this week (none of them save chances), tossing scoreless innings on the 21st (Brewers) and 26th (Reds), but he coughed up a run and two hits against the Rangers on the 22nd. A middle-inning ‘pen arm doing his best to fill in for Valverde, Hawkins has a 4.03 FIP and a negative WPA for the season.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

Gonzalez got himself into a mess on the 23rd against the Blue Jays (1 R and 2 walks), and Soriano bailed him out while earning the save in the process. Frustrating as it may be for fantasy-types, Bobby Cox has used his two best relievers with discretion, instead of following some blanket set of rules so that one guy earns a “SV” next to his name.

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom had a devilish inning against the Rays, getting torched for 4 runs in a third of an inning on the 23rd. The 29 year-old has now issued 15 walks in 19 innings, holds a 5.06 FIP and a -0.18 WPA. Opposing batters are wisely sitting back and taking pitches, having offered at just 40.1% of Lindstrom’s high-90’s heaters and low-80’s sliders (44.6% MLB average, 50.3% career average for Lindstrom).

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

Hanrahan (apparently the guy for now) continued the late-inning hijinks by uncorking a wild pitch and losing the ballgame against the Bucs on the 20th, but he has since worked 3 scoreless innings, with 2 saves and 4 K’s. Fooling hitters has never been a problem for the burly right-hander, but he’ll have to limit the walks to avoid being usurped again. He’s made baby steps on the front: his 3.80 BB/9 mark, while hardly great, is below last year’s 4.48.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got into just one game this week as the Cubs scuffled, with a scoreless frame against San Diego on the 22nd. The former Marlin has had some poor luck on flyballs (16.7 HR/FB%) and his BABIP is .356, but he hasn’t done himself any favors with 10 walks in 18.1 innings.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Mariano Rivera, Yankees

That’s the Mo we know: since giving up 2 taters to the Rays on May 7th, Rivera has tossed 5 scoreless innings, with 5 K’s and one walk. His K/BB ratio is a sparkling 22/1 in 16.1 innings of work, and his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP, which roots out Rivera’s misfortune on flyballs so far-his HR/FB% is 28.6) comes in at 2.04 (which bests last season’s 2.13). In fact, his XFIP has gone down each season since 2006. You get the feeling that he could do this forever, no?

Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox

Even with his control departing him at times (10 walks in 18 IP), Papelbon has managed to rack up 11 saves in 11 chances. He’s not garnering the same number of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone to this point (26.3 Outside Swing%, compared to a 30.7 career average), as hitters appear content to try and draw a walk rather than tussling with Papelbon’s mid 90’s heat, slider or splitter.

Kerry Wood, Indians

8.5 games back in a lackadaisical AL Central Division, the Indians continue to burn whatever leads they hold in the late innings. The ‘pen ranks 29th in team WPA and FIP. Wood, coming off a nice season in Wrigleyville (2.32 FIP, 4.67 K/BB ratio) has been the most egregious arsonist, with a -1.08 WPA. His BABIP (.391) and HR/FB rate (25%) are wacky-high, but he’s done himself no favors with 7 walks in 13 innings. The 31 year-old is fresh off his worst appearance of the season: a four-run, two-homer debacle against the Royals last night. Here’s Wood’s woeful evening, in graphical form:

Bobby Jenks, White Sox

Jenks got into just one game this week, surrendering 3 hits and 2 runs in an inning of work against the Blue Jays on the 17th. On the plus side, his pitches within the strike zone haven’t been easily hit: opponents have made contact with 81.6% of his offerings in the zone, compared to 93.1% last season. His overall contact rate is down nine percent from 2008.

Joe Nathan, Twins

After reeling off 7 scoreless innings to begin the month of May, Nathan was surprisingly torched by the Yankees as part of the walkoff week extravaganza in the Bronx (3 hits, 3 R, 2 BB in 0.2 IP). Nathan hasn’t quite been his stellar self thus far, with a 3.95 FIP and his lowest K/BB ratio (3.00) since his last year with San Francisco in 2003. His overall contact rate (76.8%) is the highest we have on record going back to 2002 (his average from ’02 to the present is 71.3%).

In Control

Brad Ziegler, Athletics

Watch out for: Andrew Bailey

Ziegler hasn’t had many save chances, what with the A’s being clobbered on a nightly basis in the month of May (Oakland’s run differential now sits at negative 27 for the year). Still, the submarine righty will want to pick up his sinking performance if he wants to hold off Bailey: Ziegler his let 6 runs score on his watch this month in 6 IP.

C.J. Wilson, Rangers (Frank Francisco on DL with biceps tendinitis)

Francisco will be back soon, but Wilson will take whatever save ops arise until baseball’s WPA leader comes off the DL. It’s just plain hard to trust C.J. in the later innings: his whiff rate has gone down each season since 2006 (from 8.73 that season down to 5.51 in 2009), and it isn’t as though he’s painting the corners: his walk rate is near five. Just 42.8% of Wilson’s pitches have been within the strike zone (48.9% MLB average).

Brian Fuentes, Angels

Fuentes’ ERA sits at a lukewarm 4.61, but that’s because hits have fallen in against him at an absurd clip (.417 BABIP). His FIP (3.12) and strikeout rate (12.51 per nine innings) tell more of the story here. Fuentes hasn’t surrendered a run since May 4th. Try to buy low if you still can.

Scott Downs, Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan might be back, but Downs doesn’t much care: he just continues to mow down batters. Downs racked up 2 saves and 3 scoreless innings this week, taking his K/BB ratio to an obscene 22/2 in 19.1 innings. Downs was never really known for possessing razor-sharp command (his career BB/9 is 3.42), and he’s still not really pounding the zone. Just 45.7% of his pitches have been within the zone, but hitters are going hog-wild chasing his sinker and sweeping curve out off the plate and in the dirt (35.5 Outside Swing%, 6th among all relievers).

Fernando Rodney, Tigers

Watch out for: Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya

Rodney tossed three scoreless frames this week, though none came in a save situation. His K/BB sits at 11/4 in 16 innings. Zumaya, meanwhile, checks in at an uncharacteristic 7/0 in 11.1 innings. Zumaya has actually placed 57.8% of his offerings in the strike zone so far (51.9% career average). It’s Rodney’s job for now, but Detroit could be tempted to make a change if Rodney slips up.

Juan Cruz, Royals(Joakim Soria on the DL with shoulder soreness)

Cruz will get the save ops in Soria’s absence, but he hasn’t gotten to convert one since April 30th. The string-bean righty’s 1.45 ERA is rather misleading: he’s missed just 13 bats in 18.2 innings, while issuing 10 free passes. A .131 BABIP has greatly helped Cruz’s cause. His Outside Swing%, 30.1 in 2008, is down to 19.7% in 2009.

Watch Your Back

George Sherrill/Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(?), Orioles

Sherrill made just one appearance this week, converting a save chance against the Royals on the 16th. His control has been characteristically bumpy (7 BB in 15.2 IP), but he is at least garnering his highest Outside Swing% since 2005 (28.4% in ’09).

David Aardsma (Brandon Morrow is in time out for the moment)

Morrow sorrow: The former first-rounder out of Cal is banished to middle relief, though manager Don Wakamatsu says it’s just a temporary move. Still, the 24 year-old will want to pick it up: Morrow has 8 runs on his May ledger in just 3.2 innings, with 3 homers allowed.

Aardsma, meanwhile, will get the call for the time being. He’s not exactly a lock-down option, either: punching out over a batter per inning is great, but walking 5.79 per nine is a good way to give your manager an ulcer. Aardsma has eschewed his secondary pitches this season, throwing a fastball 89% of the time.

Troy Percival, Rays

Watch out for: J.P. Howell

Percival was torched for 4 runs and two dingers against the O’s on the 13th, and has since worked two quiet innings against the Indians (May 15th and the 17th). The 39 year-old is putting himself in the hole from the get-go: his 41.7 First Pitch Strike% ranks just ahead of Horacio Ramirez. That’s not the sort of company that a closer would like to keep.

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

New York’s new ninth-inning toy keeps rolling: Rodriguez has an eight-inning scoreless streak, having last been touched up on May 5th. K Rod has 11 saves, and his ERA has dipped under one. However, his overall performance is largely similar to his “disappointing” 2008 campaign: his FIP checks in at 3.20 (3.22 in ’08). The difference? A .220 BABIP, compared to .302 last year. Rodriguez’s K rate, while still by no means troublesome, is down again: 12.03 K/9 in 2007, 10.14 in ’08 and 9.15 this year.

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Apparently Broxton is human: he surrendered two runs to the Phillies on May 14th, but has since reeled off two scoreless appearances on the 15th and the 18th. Broxton continues to keep the ball on the turf, with a 54.5 GB%. That, coupled with a stratospheric K rate (14.4 per nine), helps to explain why just 3 runners have crossed the plate on his watch (20 IP).

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell remains unblemished in 2009, with his scoreless innings streak up to sixteen. The former Met will probably surpass DL’d Frank Francisco for the WPA lead among relievers during his next appearance. With the Padres obviously headed for a bleak season and the club short on highly-touted youngsters, do they consider leveraging their 31 year-old relief ace at the deadline? As good as Bell has been, last-place outlets should not cling to 30-something relievers if they have a chance to cash in.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

With 11.4 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and a groundball rate near 70, Qualls has certainly done his part in a D-Backs ‘pen that ranks a mediocre 22nd in team WPA. His 73.3 First-Pitch Strike% ranks fifth among all relievers, and 56% of his offerings have crossed the plate (8th among ‘pen arms).

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps continues to get bopped, with a 5-hit, 3 run train wreck against the Rockies on May 15th, a scoreless frame the following night and then a 1-run, 1-walk performance against the Nats on the 18th. Looking at his Pitch F/X data, Capps’ pitches have shown an interesting trend. His fastball has progressively shown less tailing movement in on right-handed hitters (5.8 inches in ’07, 5.1 in ’08 and 4.6 this year). Meanwhile, his slider has shown far more “sweeping” action away from righties (1.9 inches in ’07, 3.7 in ’08 and 4.9 this year).

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman is doing his best to match the man who replaced him in San Diego, as the 41 year-old changeup artist now has an 11-inning scoreless streak going to begin his Brewers career. His flyball-oriented ways have yet to surrender a homer, and his WPA checks in at 1.02.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Watch out for: Ryan Madson

Lidge blew a save op and coughed up 2 runs against Washington on the 15th, but converted 2 save chances against those Nats the following two nights (including a 0.2 inning lay-up on the 17th). The .368 BABIP and 16.7 HR/FB rate won’t persist, but the lack of control (10 unintentional BB’s in 18.1 IP) is disconcerting. Lidge’s 47.8 First-Pitch Strike% checks in among the bottom 15 out of all relievers.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero was largely a spectator this week, getting into a game for the first time last night against the Phillies. He has yet to give up a homer in 16 frames despite a 34.1 GB%, so the 2.38 FIP is a bit misleading. Like K Rod, Cordero’s K rate is down for a third straight season: 12.22 in ’07, 9.98 in ’08 and 9.56 this season.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had a bumpy week, taking back-to-back losses against the Mets on the 14th and 15th, while giving up a combined 5 runs in 1.2 frames (he converted a save op against them on the 17th). Batters are making better contact with San Fran’s stopper in 2009: his Z-contact% (the percentage that hitters make contact with pitches inside the strike zone) has risen from 81.8% in 2008 to 91.7% this season (87.7% MLB average). With a couple of late-inning stinkers, Wilson’s WPA dips to -0.63.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros (Jose Valverde on DL with calf injury)

Hawkins worked two innings this week, converting a save opportunity against the Rockies on the 14th but taking the loss on the 16th against the Cubs. Hawkins isn’t the ideal late-inning option, but he’s missing more bats than he has since 2004 (7.56 K/9).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Franklin had an uneventful week, pitching 1.2 scoreless innings between two appearances (May 14th against the Pirates and the 18th against Milwaukee). Is this a good time to sell high on Franklin? He’s been pretty good (7.71 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), but his FIP (3.81) is much higher than his 1.10 ERA, and that .158 BABIP won’t continue unless he has a leprechaun hidden in that bushy goatee.

Huston Street, Rockies

Colorado’s ‘pen has been wretched in 2009 (28th in team WPA), so Street moves up a category through a combination of good pitching (6 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 0 R in May) and no other viable candidates to usurp him. Street’s peripherals are nifty so far (9.92 K/9, 1.65 BB/9), and with his BABIP and HR/FB rates stabilizing, his FIP is under four.

Watch Your Back

Matt Lindstrom, Marlins

Watch out for: Leo Nunez

Lindstrom gave up a run in a non-save situation against the Dodgers on the 15th, then converted a save op with a clean inning the following night. The hard-throwing 29 year-old has issued 10 walks in 15 frames this season, and his WPA sits at -0.31.

Julian Tavarez(?)/Kip Wells/Joe Beimel/Joel Hanrahan/Ron Villone(huh?), Nationals

“Here, you take it”: Does anyone want the Nats’ closing gig? Ron Villone, of all people, leads the ‘pen in WPA (0.31). Free agent import Beimel is (unfortunately) fitting right in thus far: the lefty journeyman has experienced pain along the Potomac. In 16 innings, his FIP sits near five, with a -1.35 WPA. Hanrahan, meanwhile, dished out 3 runs and two walks against the Bucs on the 18th. Could Villone take over by process of elimination?

Mike Gonzalez, Braves

Watch out for: Rafael Soriano

So far, Gonzalez has posted the highest K rate (12.74 per nine) and Outside Swing% (31.1) of his career. He served up a homer to the D-Backs on the 15th, and pitched a clean inning in an 8-1 blowout against the Rockies last night. The southpaw will need to continue the good work if he hopes to hold off Soriano, who boasts a 2.59 FIP (Gonzo’s is 3.03).

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg’s Wrigley woes continue: after a six-appearance scoreless streak, Gregg imploded on the 16th against the Astros. Without retiring a single batter, the former Marlin gave up four runs, including two homers, while hitting a batter. His WPA is back in negative territory (-0.31), and just 43.2% of his pitches have caught the strike zone (51.2% career average, 48.9% MLB average).