The N.L. Closer Report: 6/26

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Big Jon turned in his first poor week at the office, surrendering 4 runs, 2 walks and a homer (his first of the year) in two appearances against the Angels on June 20th and 21st. His numbers are still fantastic for the season, however: 14.38 K/9, a 1.41 FIP and a 2.79 WPA that leads all relievers.

Heath Bell, Padres

Bell racked up 2 saves this week, while also picking up a win (4 IP total). Remarkably, Heath still hasn’t given up a homer in 31.1 innings. Bell has ratcheted up the use of his fastball in recent seasons (from 64% in ’07 to 76.2% this year), and with good reason: the pitch has a run value of +2.07/100 pitches this season.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod was touched up against the Orioles on the 18th (2 H, 2 BB), but he has tossed three scoreless innings (3 saves) since. Rodriguez’s peripherals continue to head south, however. His K rate (9.59) is down for a 4th straight season, and his walk rate (4.79 BB/9) is a career high. A .223 BABIP and a 2.2 HR/FB rate have kept his surface numbers at an elite level, but there are some cracks in the foundation here.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

With the Brew Crew rotation featuring Gallardo and four punching bags, Hoffman’s work has been scarce (Milwaukee has dropped 5 out of 6 games). Trevor has been mortal this month (including a blown save and 2 runs surrendered against the Indians on the 17th), but he still boasts a 19/4 K/BB ratio in 21.2 frames. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a big fly, either.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

After a turbulent beginning to the month of June while dealing with forearm soreness (7 runs in his first 6 appearances), Qualls delivered two scoreless appearances on the 24th and 25th. Qualls’ fastball velocity hasn’t suffered, but the pitch hasn’t been as effective this season. His heater has a -0.34 run value per 100 tosses, including an ugly -4.16 mark in June (+1.68 in 2008).

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge is off the DL following a pair of quality rehab appearances for Single-A Clearwater. “Lights out” returns to a line that includes some truly gruesome figures. He ranks dead last in WPA (-2.20), with the least productive heater among ‘pen arms (-3.36 runs per 100 pitches). Opponents have made contact with 87.9% of Lidge’s offerings within the zone, well above his 74.8% career average. Let’s hope that the rest and mended knee fix this previously dominant closer.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero finally served up a big fly this week, amazingly his first since September 20th, 2008. He picked up 3 saves during the week, with a 1.44 WPA for the season. Hitters continue to make more contact with Cordero’s stuff (64.5% in 2007, 70.7 in 2007 and 76.8% in 2008). However, nearly all of that extra contact has come on pitches outside of the zone: Cordero’s O-Contact% has gone from 35.1% in ’07 to 63.5% in ’09.

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps hasn’t collected a save since June 14th, but he has tossed two scoreless frames since then, including a pair against the Indians. Happily, Capps’ normally razor-sharp control appears to be returning. He has issued just 1 walk in 9 innings this month, while locating 60.5% of his pitches within the strike zone (51.6% in April and May).

Huston Street, Rockies

Street has been an awfully busy man for the surging Rockies, with 8 saves in June. Huston’s K rate has bounced back this season, from 8.87 per nine innings in 2008 to 10.16 per nine in ’09, and his walk rate is down from 3.47/9 last year to 2.61. Street’s slider has been deadly, with a run value of +4.07 per 100 pitches (one of the 10 highest rates among relievers).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde has returned to ninth-inning duties rather well. He did blow a save against the Royals on June 24th, but he collected 4 saves since our last “Closer Report” while issuing just one walk. Valverde’s fastball (95.5 MPH) is humming, though opponents have made contact within the zone 85.7% of the time this season (76.2% career average).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Has anyone seen Mr. Franklin? He hasn’t gotten into a game since June 20th, when he picked up a 1.1 inning save against the Royals. Franklin’s strand rate sits at an impossibly high 99.1%, making St. Louis’ ninth-inning man the best escape artist since Houdini. His FIP (3.21) is over 2.2 runs higher than his ERA (1.00).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Good Vibrations: The last time Wilson was scored upon was all the way back on May 21st. Since then, San Fran’s stopper has turned in 13.2 squeaky clean innings, with 16 K’s and four walks. His strikeout rate is up for a third consecutive campaign (6.85 in ’07, 9.67 in ’08, 9.79 this season), and his fastball run value (+1.71 per 100 pitches) is a career best.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano and Gonzalez appear to be engaged in a strikeout battle. Soriano (12.3 K/9) picked up the save against the Cubs on the 22nd, and now holds a 1.90 WPA. Gonzalez (11.65 K/9) has tossed five scoreless, walk-free frames since a 4-run meltdown on June 16th. His WPA sits at 1.20. Expect the time-share to continue for the foreseeable future. Both are well-qualified, and Bobby Cox knows that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Well, so much for Angel Guzman’s covert attempt to swipe the closer’s role. The Venezuelan’s talent is only surpassed by his propensity to end up on the trainer’s table (this time, it’s a right triceps strain).

Gregg continues to do his best Joe Borowski imitation. The former Angel and Marlin had been working on a 9.2 inning scoreless streak, but he then used up some of that good will by blowing a game against Detroit on the 23rd (Ryan Raburn took him deep). His WPA (0.09) is just slightly in the black. Gregg has really ramped up the usage of his low-80’s slider (32.4% this year, 23.6% in ’08), but the pitch’s run value has dipped from +0.70 in 2008 to -1.01 this year.

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer and Renyel Pinto are candidates

After two more blow ups (a combined 5 runs and 7 hits in 1.2 IP), Lindstrom heads to the DL with a triceps injury. Perhaps the time off will mend whatever has caused him to lose control of the strike zone: the high-octane righty issued 2.82 BB/9 in 2007, 4.08 in 2008 and a stunning 6.21 this season. Lindstrom’s velocity wasn’t suffering, but his Zone% dipped to a below-average 48.8% this season (51.5% in ’08 and 54% in ’07). Lindstrom is not expected back until August.

In his absence, Nunez, Meyer and Pinto will battle for save ops. Surprisingly, Meyer has resurrected his career in Florida and looks like the best hope for fantasy owners. The former Braves and Athletics prospect has recovered from a nasty shoulder injury to author a 3.48 FIP and a 4.29 K/BB ratio.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal has a 4.2 inning scoreless streak going, but it’s hard to get excited when that comes with nary a strikeout and 2 walks. Mac has a K/BB ratio of 9/13 this season, with just 43.4% of his pitches hitting the strike zone (49.1% MLB average). It would be best to look elsewhere.





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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Ben
14 years ago

Which closers are being shopped around? Who will step into their place?

It seems as though a lot of teams are up in the air right now whether or not they are in the race to get into the playoffs. The Rockies and Marlins are hot, both played terrible in May. The Cubs should be closer to getting into the playoffs but it would kill the fan faithful to trade away players and call it a season.

Do the Pirates trade Capps? Like they have done so many other years with Mike Williams, Damaso Marte and Mike Gonzalez?