The N.L. Closer Report: 7/10

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton appeared just once this past week, and it was a rocky cameo to say the least. Big Jon allowed 3 runs and 3 walks against the Padres on July 5th. To put that in perspective, Broxton coughed up a total of 4 runs in April and May combined. His numbers for the year are still terrifying, as he leads all relievers in FIP (1.39) while placing ever so slightly behind teammate Ramon Troncoso in WPA (2.64 to 2.63). Broxton’s 14.75 K/9 ranks nearly three whole K’s per nine above second-place Octavio Dotel.

Heath Bell, Padres

The first-time All-Star selection worked twice this week, with a 1.2-inning save vs. the Dodgers on the fourth (he allowed 1 run, 1 H and 1 BB), and then tossing a scoreless inning in a non-save chance the following day. One would assume that Bell (5th in WPA, without giving up a homer in 36.1 frames) is on the trading block. He’s pretty darned good, but has more utility to the also-run club as a trade chip.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

K-Rod appeared once this week, allowing a homer to Manny Ramirez against the Dodgers on the 8th. The Queens closer is arguably in the midst of his worst season in the majors, despite posting his second-lowest ERA (1.77). Rodriguez’s FIP sits at a mediocre 3.69, the product of 9.07 K/9 and 5.09 BB/9. The lack of control is becoming a serious concern; this is the 4th straight year that K-Rod’s BB rate has increased, and he isn’t missing as many bats as he used to either. Opponents have responded by swinging at fewer pitches outside of the zone. Rodriguez’s O-Swing% has dropped from 30.2% in 2007 to 23.6% in 2009.

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Hoffman got into just one game this week, picking up a bumpy save (2 walks and 1 hit) against St. Louis on July 8th. Trevor walked one batter in his first 18 appearances, but he has issued 6 free passes in his last 7 trips to the mound. Hoffman still hasn’t given up a long ball in 24.1 innings pitched.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Qualls collected 3 saves in 4.1 scoreless innings this week. Hitters touched up Qualls more than usual in June as he fought through forearm tightness (85.1% contact rate that’s 6 percent above his 2009 average, with 8 R in 9.2 IP), but Arizona’s closer appears to be back on track.

In Control

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps got into just one game this week, racking up a save vs. the ‘Stros on July 7th. He walked just two batters in 11 June innings and has pitched two-walkless frames in July, a happy development after Capps issued 9 walks in 15.2 frames during April and May. The Texan’s Zone% was 56.8% in June, after posting marks of 51.6% in April and May.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street soaked up 4 innings this week, allowing 1 run while collecting three saves. His WPA (1.46) is already higher than every full season other than his 2005 rookie campaign (3.70). Street’s Zone%, which dipped to a below-average 47.5 in 2008, is back up to 51.6% this year. That helps to explain how his walk rate has been shaved down from 3.47 in ’08 to 2.35 in 2009.

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Last year’s WPA leader (5.37) still ranks dead last in 2009 (-2.18) by a considerable margin. He collected two save vs. the Mets on the 4th and 5th, but Bad Lidge reared his ugly head again against the Reds on the 7th (2 H, 1 R, 1BB while taking the loss). Lidge did collect another save vs. Cincy yesterday. Opposing hitters have made contact with 85.7% of Lidge’s pitches within the zone, about 11 percent above his career average.

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Cordero collected two saves this week, with scoreless frames against the Cardinals on the 4th and the Phillies on the 7th. Cincy’s closer has a WPA (2.02) that places him among the top 10, but it’s been something of a high-wire act. Cordero’s 1.88 K/BB is his worst mark since 2000; a very low BABIP (.251) and HR/FB rate (3 percent) have veiled a drop in K/9 from 12.22 in 2007 to 7.50 in 2009.

Jose Valverde, Astros

Valverde picked up one save in three appearances this week, punching out 5 batters and surrendering 1 run in the process. Though Papa Grande has endured some long ball woes (17.4 HR/FB%), he also totes rates of 11.44 K/9 and 2.75 BB/9. Valverde’s mid-90’s gas hasn’t hit the mark often enough (-1.06 runs/100 pitches), but his mid-80’s splitter has been stellar (+2.10).

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

Equipped with rugged facial hair and a brand-spankin’ new cutter, Franklin owns a microscopic ERA (0.83) and 20 saves in 21 chances. Still, color me very skeptical. While Franklin’s K rate (6.61) is higher than usual, his .209 BABIP, mind-bending 99.2% strand rate and low HR/FB rate (6.1%) portend to bumpier days ahead.

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson whiffed three while getting the save vs. Houston on July 5th, but the Marlins filleted him for 3 hits and two runs on the 6th (he still got the cheapie save anyway). By WPA, Wilson has been one of the worst 15 relievers in the bigs (-0.84). In sunnier news, his 2.8 K/BB ratio is a career-high.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Soriano has picked up the last four save opportunities for the Braves, as Bobby Cox appears to be leading toward the man who ranks fourth in WPA (2.51) and 3rd in FIP (1.94). Gonzalez (0.80 WPA, 3.31 FIP) gave up 3 runs to the Nationals on the fourth, got two holds in scoreless frames on the 7th and 8th vs. the Cubs, then coughed up 2 more runs vs. the Rockies yesterday in his third straight day of pitching.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg got the save against the Braves on the 6th, then gave up 2 runs vs. Atlanta in a non-save situation on the 8th. Overall, Gregg holds a 0.70 WPA, with rates of 8.92 K/9 and 3.66 BB/9. Chicago’s stopper is using his low 80’s slider more than ever 30.6% of the time), though the breaker hasn’t been as effective this year (-0.41 runs/100 pitches, +0.70 in 2007 and 2008).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer are filling in

It’s hard to say just who will get the call in the 9th for the Fish. Since Lindstrom hit the shelf, Meyer and Nunez have collected two saves apiece. In terms of 2009 performance, the back-from-the-dead Meyer (once a prized prospect for the Braves and A’s) has Nunez beat in FIP (3.58 to 4.38) and WPA (1.22 to 0.46). Meyers’ past as a top starting prospect is still apparent out of the ‘pen, as he has used three different pitches to quell hitters. His 91 MPH fastball (1.13 runs/100 pitches), mid-80’s slider (+3.24) and high-70’s change (+4.19) are all working right now. Nunez also uses the same three offerings often. His 94 MPH heater (+2.24) and mid-80’s slider (+2.34) are dynamite, while an oft-utilized hard changeup (-1.75) is getting hit hard.

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal is fantasy baseball’s equivalent of “in case of emergency, break glass.” If you have no other ninth-inning options, then I suppose you might be desperate enough to use Washington’s “stopper.” Then again, you might just want to run out of that burning building instead. MacDougal’s K/BB ratio for the year is 10/19 in 21 innings. Sure, he throws hard (95.2 MPH), but that hasn’t stopped batters from making contact with 87% of his pitches.