The N.L. Closer Report: 7/3

For the purposes of the “Closer Report” (which will be a weekly feature), we’ll place the relief aces in one of three categories: Death Grip (these guys have no chance of relinquishing the closer’s role; think Mo Rivera), In Control (a good chance of continuing to rack up the saves) and Watch Your Back (the set-up man is planning a coup d’etat as we speak).

Death Grip

Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers

Broxton had a relatively light week of work, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing considering that he’s on pace to chuck 76 innings this season (that’s nothing compared to Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario, however: Troncoso is on a 105-inning pace and Belisario projects to throw 96 frames). Jon notched one save in two appearances vs. Colorado, whiffing five batters in the process. If Broxton is wearing out, it’s certainly not showing up in his velocity readings: his average fastball checked in at 97.3 MPH in June (97.5 MPH for the year). The 25 year-old has increased his fastball velocity every season in the majors, from 94.4 MPH in 2005 to that near-98 MPH reading in ’09. His run values for the pitch (per 100 pitches) since 2005? 0.17, -0.30, +0.69. +1.38 and +1.60 in 2009.

Heath Bell, Padres

Heath corralled the state of Texas this week, notching a save vs. the Rangers on June 28th and another against Houston on the 30th. Bell still hasn’t been taken deep in 33.2 innings this season, racking up a +2.17 Win Probability Added (WPA) that’s tied for 7th among relievers. With the trade deadline rapidly approaching, could Bell be switching uni’s? The Padres have considerable work to do on the rebuilding front, and hording a 31 year-old reliever, no matter the quality, wouldn’t seem to be a wise move.

Francisco Rodriguez, Mets

Rodriguez had an embarrassing week, featuring what is likely the lowest point of his distinguished career: a bases-loaded walk to closer deity Mariano Rivera, of all people. K-Rod walked three in that appearance against the Yankees on the 28th, got a spotless save against Milwaukee July 1st then blew up again yesterday afternoon in a rain-drenched affair against the Pirates (4 H, 2R, 1 HR in 2 IP). Is it time to be concerned here? In 2006, Rodriguez posted a 3.5 K/BB ratio with the Angels. In 2009, that figure has nearly been cut in half (1.82 K/BB). He’s lost 3 punchouts per nine innings since ’06, and his walk rate (4.99 BB/9) is up for the 4th straight season. Rodriguez has never jumped out ahead of hitters, but check out his First-Pitch Strike% totals (MLB average is 58%):

2006: 57.4
2007: 57.2
2008: 54.5
2009: 48.8

Trevor Hoffman, Brewers

Trevor was touched up for two runs and 4 hits against the Giants on June 27th, then came back to pick up a save vs. the Mets on the 29th (his 18th). Like the man who replaced him in San Diego, Hoffman hasn’t surrendered a home run this year. Believe it or not, his 85 MPH fastball has been remarkably effective in 2009. Among relievers tossing at least 20 innings, Hoffman’s +3.03 runs/100 with the pitch ranks 2nd. Hoffman’s vaunted low-70’s changeup (+3.60/100 pitches) has also been dastardly. The fastball/changeup combo is all about working up and down the for all-time saves leader: his fastball and changeup barely move horizontally at all (1 inch of tail in on righties for the fastball, with 3 inches of tail for the change). However, there’s a half-foot of difference in terms of vertical movement (12.4 inches for the fastball, 6.6 for the changeup). The MLB average is less than 4 inches of difference.

Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks

Pitching at less-than-optimum health (strained forearm), Qualls surrendered 8 runs in 9.2 frames during the month of June. Opponents slugged .535 against him during the month, as he punched out 5 batters. Qualls’ numbers for the season (8.16 K/9, 1.13 BB/9, 64.6 GB%) are excellent, but have been dragged down by a .350 BABIP.

In Control

Brad Lidge, Phillies

Lidge had another stomach-churning appearance on June 26th, coughing up 2 runs and 2 walks in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Blue Jays. He did recover to collect a save two nights later against Toronto. Let’s try to be positive here: Lidge has suffered from a .371 BABIP and a 17.9 HR/FB rate. Still, his walk rate (5.6 BB/9, 46 Zone%) is troubling. None of Lidge’s pitches are working. His fastball (-3.45 runs/100 pitches) is the least effective among all relievers, and the oft-utilized slider comes in at -0.59/100 pitches (+2.50 in 2008).

Francisco Cordero, Reds

Coco Cordero threw a scoreless frame versus Cleveland June 27th (no save), picked up a SV against Arizona July 1st and got a W despite walking three batters against the D-Backs the following night. Cordero’s K/BB ratio has dipped to 1.93, with his K rate falling by a decent margin (7.68 K/9, down from 9.98 last year). His low BABIP (.264) and HR/FB rate (3.2%) suggest that the 1.85 ERA is more smoke and mirrors than great pitching. Cordero’s XFIP (based on K’s, walks, and a normalized HR/FB rate) sits over two runs higher (3.93).

Matt Capps, Pirates

Capps picked up two saves this week (against the Royals and Cubs), but it wasn’t a particularly good week for the Big Bull Rider. He served up a homer to Mark Teahen on June 26th, then took a loss against the Mets yesterday afternoon. Capps won’t be 26 until September, but don’t be entirely surprised if his name enters trade discussion over the next month. The Pirates surely aren’t shy about jettisoning players if they feel the return is right.

Huston Street, Rockies

Street sealed the deal twice this week, with saves against his former employer (the A’s) on June 27th and 28th. After a mediocre 2008 season (-0.01 WPA), Street has rebounded by increasing his K/BB ratio from 2.56 to 3.90 (+0.98 WPA). After locating just 47.5% of his pitches in the zone last season, Huston has increased that figure to 51.2% with the Rockies (49.2 MLB average, 51.4 career average).

Jose Valverde, Astros

Papa Grande pitched twice this past week, blowing a save against Detroit on June 28th (2 R, including a homer by Brandon Inge). Working his way back from a nasty calf injury, Valverde hasn’t gotten ahead of hitters as well as he normally does. His First-Pitch Strike% is just 55.1 (65.3 in 2007 and 61.4 in 2008). To boot, opponents are making contact with 84.1% of his pitches within the zone (76.2 career average). Despite all that negativity, Valverde still has a 20/5 K/BB in 16.2 innings.

Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, Franklin continues to defy logic by holding an eye-popping 99.1% strand rate and a .206 BABIP. Those measures say “regression” in bold, glowing, neon lights. Yet, St. Louis’ stopper hasn’t given up a run since May 20th (a stretch of 13 appearances). It helps that Franklin just plain doesn’t walk anyone (1.45 BB/9; he last gave up a free pass May 27th).

Brian Wilson, Giants

Wilson had his 13-appearance scoreless streak busted on June 27th vs. the Brewers, as he was beaten to the tune of 3 runs and 4 hits in 0.2 innings. He then came back to notch a 1.1-inning save vs. St. Louis on June 30th. On the positive side, Wilson’s 96 MPH heater is humming (+1.50 runs/100). On the other hand, he’s throwing about 5 percent fewer pitches within the strike zone (54.3 in ’08, 49.2 in ’09). His WPA for the year sits at -0.87. That’s in the same territory as discarded Twin Luis Ayala and maligned middle man Aaron Heilman.

Watch Your Back

Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano, Braves

Gonzalez notched a save against the Red Sox on June 28th, with Soriano picking up a SV yesterday against the Phillies after Ryan Madson coughed up 3 runs. Soriano bests Gonzalez in WPA (2.2 to 0.97) and K/BB ratio (3.77 to 3.4), and he was used in more high-leverage situations than Gonzo in June (1.68 Leverage Index to 1.48 for Gonzalez). They’re both qualified, and figuring out who gets the 9th-inning opportunity will come down to matchups and recent usage compared to just pigeonholing one guy as “closer” and the other “set-up man.” Imagine that.

Kevin Gregg, Cubs

Watch out for: Carlos Marmol

Gregg turned in a much-needed, serene week for the Cubs. He gathered three saves (one against the White Sox and two vs. the Bucs), whiffing three and not surrendering a hit in 3 IP. Gregg’s numbers for the year aren’t anything to write home about, but his WPA is up to 0.45 and he has stopped handing out walks like they’re sticks of Juicy Fruit (1.5 K/BB in April, 2.4 in May and 3.67 in June).

Matt Lindstrom (right elbow sprain) on the DL; Leo Nunez is filling in

Nunez appears to be the guy pegged for save ops for Florida in Lindstrom’s absence. The lithe, live-armed 25 year old (formerly of the Pittsburgh and Kansas City organizations) boasts a 94 MPH fastball, mid-80’s slider and a hard mid-80’s change. While those offerings didn’t lead to many whiffs in 2008 (4.84 K/9), Nunez has punched out 8.49 batters per nine innings this season. Opponents aren’t making a whole lot of contact with his stuff (72.4% overall, compared to the 80.6% MLB average), but Nunez could stand to stop getting into so many hitter’s counts (53.4 First-Pitch Strike%).

Mike MacDougal, Nationals

MacDougal picked up a save against the O’s on June 28th, while also seeing one of his competitors (Joel Hanrahan) shipped to the ‘Burgh. Not that the former Royal and White Sock should enjoy any great job security: in 18.2 IP, MacDougal has a 10/15 K/BB ratio.