Archive for Closers

At the time this was written, MockDraftCentral.com had completed 475 mixed league drafts and Kenley Jansen was going as the number 18 overall reliever, on average. That price may seem a bit steep for a reliever not guaranteed to close games at any point in the season, but it is a price that seems adequate when looking at Jansen’s actual production.

Aside from Jansen’s incredible numbers, which I will get to in a bit, the pitcher likely ahead of him on the closer depth chart, Javy Guerra, does not have quite the same repertoire or prestige. Guerra throws a lot of pitches, but none as effective as Jansen’s cutter, as PitchFX labels his most commonly thrown pitch. Before last season, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Jansen as the team’s number two overall prospect. It is rare that you see a reliever ranked so high in prospect rankings, but Jansen’s incredible arm and bat missing ability won Goldstein over.

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There may not be a better value pick among closers this year than Jordan Walden. While much of the closer buzz is around Craig Kimbrel, Walden appears to be a poor man’s version of the number one roto reliever. While at lesser rates, Walden can also provide a high strikeout total, tally up saves, and accrue a superb ERA. Even though Walden is one of six projected closers with a strikeout rate at 26.5% or higher, it is doubtful that he ever reaches the 100 strikeout barrier as Kimbrel did in his rookie season. However, that does not mean that the two are entirely dissimilar.

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Arbitration settlements are coming in today, and two notable relievers are in the news. Francisco Rodriguez got eight million, and Juan Carlos Oviedo (aka Leo Nunez) got six million. Both are stuck behind closers that should keep their jobs if healthy — do they have any fantasy value?

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Back in July, the man behind the scoring system for ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues made a modest proposal for an update on pitcher scoring. Justin Merry was generally happy with the scoring system but found that the scores for a few random games made no sense.

To fix those, he recommended adding hits as a category, penalizing pitchers for each hit they allow, and reassessing the value of each of the other stats in accordance with that change. As we head towards 2012, the decision was made to accept his proposal and update scoring for pitchers. By looking back at 2011 stats, we can see the impact this scoring change will have.

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The Reds picked up a top tier closer on a short deal, and there are plenty of reasons to love this in real life and in fantasy. In fact, the real life reasons inform the fantasy reasons. It’s all one big package, and Ryan “Mad Dog” Madson is the bow.

Why love it in real life? The Reds aren’t on the hook after 2012, and that probably suits them fine. Relievers are volatile from year to year, even one as nice as the Mad Dog. And the Reds are an exercise in learning from their own mistakes.

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A pitcher in Petco Park should always be on your fantasy radar. With the trade of Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Cashner became the most recent pitcher to be acquired by the Padres. While Cashner will pitch out of the bullpen next season, he still could have some fantasy value. Things could get more interesting in 2013, when Cashner could move into the rotation. Knowing that Cashner might be far more valuable a season down the road, is it worth it to take a chance on him in a keeper or dynasty league next season?
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So Eden sank to grief,
So dawn goes down to day.
Nothing gold can stay.

— Robert Frost, “Nothing Gold Can Stay”

In this season of Hall of Fame ballots and reflection on players past, it often comes up how disappointing it can be for fans to watch a favorite player whose glory days are behind them. If a player wants to keep playing even after their skills have begun to dull, that is certainly their right, but aging is seldom a pleasant process to watch from afar.

The newest Ray, Fernando Rodney, won’t have to worry about causing fans such retrospective grief, as he’s unlikely to garner much Hall of Fame support, but he the idea of staying just a little too long may have occurred him over the course of the last year. Coming off his 37 save season with the Tigers in 2009, Rodney signed a two-year deal that would pay him $11 million to finish games for the Angels. Over the course of that deal, Rodney saved a total of 17 games. In 2010, he lost the role to Brian Fuentes and in 2011 he was muscled out by Jordan Walden, so it’d be hard to blame him for feeling as though he had overstayed his welcome almost from the first day he arrived in Anaheim. Read the rest of this entry »

So Mark Melancon is gone and now fantasy owners are left with a mess in the Astros ‘pen. Who’s the closer? Is Brandon Lyon still playing baseball? What, he’s still in consideration for the role? Should we care? Are the ‘Stros going to win more than 10 games all year? The names of the candidates are some of the most “who the heck is he?” group of characters I have seen fighting for the role of closer in years. This should be one exciting battle, so let’s get to the analyzation…

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The Boston Red Sox picked up a Jonathan Papelbon replacement on Wednesday, acquiring Andrew Bailey (and Ryan Sweeney) from the Oakland A’s for Josh Reddick and prospects Raul Alcantara and Miles Head. The five-player swap has plenty of fantasy implications for both Boston and Oakland, so let’s briefly break down the big storylines.

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The final tier of our closer keeper rankings are the capital-C closers. The guys that will get save chances without the guarantee of even average performance. Some are even injury risks, but because these fellas are locked into ninth inning jobs for the time being, they’ll end up on our rosters.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference, but they weren’t the only criteria used to create the rankings or delineate the tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Joakim Soria (late add)
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Rafael Betancourt (late add)

Tier Three (link)
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
Kyle Farnsworth
Carlos Marmol
Sergio Santos
Jordan Walden

Tier Four (link)
Andrew Bailey
Matt Thornton
Brandon League
Mark Melancon
Jason Motte
Frank Francisco

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