There were only a handful of relievers who pitched as well or better than Greg Holland did over the course of last season. He was one of just seven two win pitchers, and could have finished near the top of the league had he not thrown 21.2 innings at triple-A.

Holland is more-or-less a classic two pitch reliever, but he relies more on his slider than most of his peers. According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw his slider on 42% of his pitches last year compared to the 50% rate that he threw his fastball, which is a rather high slider to fastball ratio. In generating an astonishing 30% whiff rate even with such a high frequency, his PITCHf/x slider value of 12.2 ranked second in the league behind only Mike Adams.

Not surprisingly, Holland went to his slider much more frequently than his fastball in one and two strike counts. Getting ahead with his high velocity fastball then moving to the top notch slider provided great dividends for Holland and any fantasy owners last year. His contact percentage was third to only Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, the top two strikeout arms in the league.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the ways a closer can lose his job is to not get hitters out from both sides of the plate. If a right-handed closer is only able to get RHH out consistently, teams will begin to stack the line-up with as many LHH as possible. Here is an in depth look at closer handedness splits.

I got the list of current closers from MLB Depth Charts a couple of days ago. Currently, several teams have shaky situations at closer, so this list will likely change before the beginning of Spring Training. I will try to give an update on it with the changes later.

Read the rest of this entry »

Only five relievers have a higher WAR than Rafael Betancourt since 2009, Matt Thornton, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Brian Wilson, and Sean Marshall. Despite ranking up there with the best relievers in the league over that time period, Betancourt, who will close for the Rockies this season, has been receiving little love in mock drafts this year.

While his ERA of 3.09 since ’09 is not spectacular, he does have two seasons with an ERA under 2.90 in three years. He has also tallied 223 strikeouts in 180.2 innings, or 11.11 strikeouts per nine. Of relievers expected to close next season, only Carlos Marmol has a higher strikeout percentage than Betancourt’s 31.3% rate. Only Thornton has a lower xFIP of expected closers, and Addison Reed may end up being the man in the ninth for the White Sox. Betancourt’s 10.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past two years of is double that of all but two pitchers’, Edward Mujica at 6.75 and Mariano Rivera at 5.53.

Read the rest of this entry »

As a Colorado Rockie, Matt Lindstrom was persona non grata in fantasy circles entering the 2012 season. Stuck behind Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle and Rex Brothers, Lindstrom had about as much chance of racking up saves as the squirrel that presumably inhabits Todd Helton’s beard. But Lindstrom’s hopes of closing out games perked up on Monday, as he was traded to the Orioles along with Jason Hammel in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie. While he will likely take a back seat to Jim Johnson initially, Lindstrom’s improved control and Baltimore’s lack of ‘pen depth make him worth monitoring.

Read the rest of this entry »

With only 30 closers available in a draft able to accumulate Saves at any one time, not all fantasy teams will have the opportunity to get 3 closers in a 12 team league, not alone in a 20 team league. With a limited number of closers available, it is important to find other relievers to help generate stats. I am going to look at 3 of the best non-closers in the game, Koji Uehara, Sergio Romo and Joaquin Benoit.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here is a short list of relievers that had a higher xFIP than the Indians’ Vinnie Pestano last season, John Axford, Mike Adams, Jonny Venters, Glen Perkins, and Ryan Madson. That is an extremely impressive list of closers and set-up men that Pestano was, at worst, comparable with last year.

Currently, Pestano is being drafted in just 1.5% of Mock Draft Central drafts, less than Joel Peralta, Mark Melancon, Nick Masset, and Evan Meek, to name a few. This is not to say that the aforementioned are bad relievers, but they probably do not have the same fantasy value that Pestano has at this point.

While he does not have tremendous velocity or great secondary offerings, his assortment of fastball variations and a solid slurve-slider have made him an incredibly productive reliever. While he sat on his four-seam fastball 44.4% of the time according to PITCHf/x last year, his two-seamer and cutter were thrown a combined 34.6%, all of which sat between 92 and 93 mph on average. It is certainly difficult to strike batters out at a 33.6% clip with 80% of offerings being thrown at the same average speed, but the former Cal State Fullerton closer was able to do so. Pestano does not throw his slider much more frequently in two-strike counts either, throwing it on just 19.4% of two strike pitches.

Read the rest of this entry »

With one of the bigger signings of the winter completed last week in Prince Fielder joining Detroit, one of the more talked about fantasy storylines is Miguel Cabrera’s likely new third base eligibility. Jim Leyland has stated Cabrera wants to and will play third base, which helps his draft stock but could potentially hurt the stock of Tiger pitchers.

Jose Valverde may be affected more than the rest of the group. Converting 49 saves in as many opportunities will have Valverde’s draft value at an all-time high, with Mock Draft Central drafts currently averaging Valverde as the seventh reliever taken. If Cabrera is being drafted due to his likely third and first base eligibility, it is being assumed that he actually will appear at third base at least semi-regularly. While he only needs a bit more than a handful of games to qualify at third, Leyland’s comments give confidence in constructing drafts around the thought that Cabrera will play third base often. This means other players should be drafted under that same assumption, such as Valverde. There is at least some risk that Cabrera is the Tiger’s third baseman, which adds additional risk to Tiger pitchers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Although I am only about a third of the way through my hitter projections, I am already bored and have been itching to start up on pitchers. So after getting a taste of the methodology and process I employ in coming up with projections on the offensive side of the ledger, it’s time to look under the hood of my pitcher projections. The exciting part for you is that these projections will differ from the forecasting systems much more so than the hitter projections. So there is much more room for debate and of course having the fun of being right. Without further ado, it’s time to dive into how I project pitchers.

Read the rest of this entry »

At the time this was written, MockDraftCentral.com had completed 475 mixed league drafts and Kenley Jansen was going as the number 18 overall reliever, on average. That price may seem a bit steep for a reliever not guaranteed to close games at any point in the season, but it is a price that seems adequate when looking at Jansen’s actual production.

Aside from Jansen’s incredible numbers, which I will get to in a bit, the pitcher likely ahead of him on the closer depth chart, Javy Guerra, does not have quite the same repertoire or prestige. Guerra throws a lot of pitches, but none as effective as Jansen’s cutter, as PitchFX labels his most commonly thrown pitch. Before last season, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Jansen as the team’s number two overall prospect. It is rare that you see a reliever ranked so high in prospect rankings, but Jansen’s incredible arm and bat missing ability won Goldstein over.

Read the rest of this entry »

There may not be a better value pick among closers this year than Jordan Walden. While much of the closer buzz is around Craig Kimbrel, Walden appears to be a poor man’s version of the number one roto reliever. While at lesser rates, Walden can also provide a high strikeout total, tally up saves, and accrue a superb ERA. Even though Walden is one of six projected closers with a strikeout rate at 26.5% or higher, it is doubtful that he ever reaches the 100 strikeout barrier as Kimbrel did in his rookie season. However, that does not mean that the two are entirely dissimilar.

Read the rest of this entry »