Archive for Closers

Before we get into the fourth of what will be five tiers of keeper closer rankings, we’ve got two pieces of business to attend to. One is Rafael Betancourt, who inherited the Rockies’ ninth inning job following the trade of Huston Street to the Padres. I have him in Tier Two of my holds rankings, and he’d very likely fit into Tier Two of the closer rankings, probably right behind Heath Bell.

Secondly, and more importantly, I completely whiffed on Joakim Soria. Left him out of rankings entirely. That’s obviously a pretty severe screw-up on my part, and I’m not going to make any excuses. Flat out whiffed. Anyway, Soria had the worst season of his career in 2011 (4.03 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 60.1 IP) as shoulder problems gave him some trouble, but I think we all expect him to right the ship next season. Soria still struck out a ton of batters (8.95 K/9) and walked a few (2.54 BB/9), he just ran into a case of homeritis (1.04 HR/9). Hopefully a winter of rest and a healthy wing allows him to keep the ball in the park a little more in 2012.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference, but they weren’t the only criteria used to create the rankings or delineate the tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Joakim Soria (late add)
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell
Rafael Betancourt (late add)

Tier Three (link)
Drew Storen
Joel Hanrahan
Kyle Farnsworth
Carlos Marmol
Sergio Santos
Jordan Walden

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Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee started 20 of the last 21 at 1B for the 2011 Twins by filling in for the injured Justin Morneau (55 games at 1B) and Joe Mauer (16 games at 1B). Both Morneau and Mauer are huge injury risks for the 2012 season and have a good chance to end up on the DL at some point during the season. Chris Parmelee looks like, for now, he will be the backup 1B going into the season with Michael Cuddyer still a free agent.

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The Rockies parted with Huston Street at the GM meetings on Wednesday, trading him to the Padres for a player to be named later. The move saves Colorado $7 million that they hope to put toward acquiring a durable starter or a third baseman, but the reason the Rox were comfortable swapping Street is that they have a top-tier reliever ready for a shot at the closer’s spot. While Rafael Betancourt has to look over his shoulder at the likes of Rex Brothers, Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom, he’s got all the skills necessary to rank among the game’s best stoppers.

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On Tuesday, the Mets added right-handers Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco and Ramon Ramirez via trade or free agency to their bullpen. Francisco looks to be the default closer out of the 3. The following is a quick look at how the bullpen probably will shake out.

First, here are the career stats for each pitcher:

Francisco: 9.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.72 ERA
Ramirez: 7.7, K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.16 ERA
Rauch: 7.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.82 ERA

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The San Diego Padres appear to have their closer.

After watching Heath Bell leave in free agency, many expected the Padres to look to their own pen to find their late-inning solution — but on Wednesday morning, they have reportedly acquired Huston Street from the Colorado Rockies for the reliable player to be named later. The trade for the Rockies is almost assuredly to clear cash in an effort to create flexibility for other moves, but until we learn more about their own plans for the closer role, the fantasy impact for now is that Huston Street’s stock just rose pretty significantly.

Why? The happiest place on Earth to pitch, of course.

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No, not his skin color. If you missed the news (and that would never happen because you refresh FanGraphs every five minutes, right?), Sergio Santos went from being a White Sock to a Blue Jay yesterday. After saving 30 games while posting a 3.55 ERA for the Sox over the past year, this has clear fantasy implications. Is Santos going to be the de facto closer, and if so, how will he perform upon his move to the AL East?

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With Sergio Santos being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Nestor Molina on Tuesday afternoon, it seems to signal the raising of a white flag of sorts on the South side. Santos had a pretty spectacular year, serving primarily as the team closer, posting a 2.87 FIP with a staggering 13.07 K/9, saving 30 games over 63.1 innings pitched. Santos is presumably the closer in Toronto, where he will have great fantasy value, but who will be handling ninth inning duties for the White Sox is very much up in the air — although they have plenty of options.

First in line would presumably be Matt Thornton, who entered 2011 splitting duties with Chris Sale, and then kinda-sorta handed the full time closer role, and then subsequently blew up and was relegated back to set-up duties. And while he wasn’t quite as dominant has he was in the previous two seasons, he was still pretty nasty — putting up a 2.62 FIP and a 9.50 K/9 rate. His strikeouts were down from 12.02 K/9 in 2010, but even at 9.50, it was right in line with his career average. He was stung by some bad luck with a strand rate of just 61.2% whereas his career rate sits at 74.7%, not to mention a BABIP of .326 where his career rate is .295. After a horrific first month of the season (5.91 FIP), Thornton was mostly back to his old self, throwing 51 innings, giving up 45 hits, striking out 53, allowing just one home run, posting an ERA of 2.45 and holding opponents to a .232/.286/.289 triple-slash. But if there’s truly a fire sale going on, it’s probable that they’ll be taking offers for Thornton too.

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Much to our very own Brandon Warne’s chagrin, Matt Capps has returned to the Minnesota Twins, ostensibly to take over the role that he lost to Joe Nathan mid-season, serving as their resident fireman. The Twins have signed Capps to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal with a 2013 option for $6 million dollars. Fantasy managers, not to mention the Minnesota faithful, would like to know who plans to show up in 2012, the Matt Jeckyl or Matt Hyde version of Matt Capps.

In the last four seasons, serving as closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, and the Minnesota Twins, he’s been dominant, and then miserable, twice over. His four year FIP rates as a world class amusement park ride:

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As we dive deeper into the rankings, we start to come across some youngster lacking track records and a veteran with some injury concerns. Saves are saves though; it’s amazing what we’ll put up with to make sure we get as many of them as possible.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season player rankings for reference.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

Tier Two (link)
Ryan Madson
Brian Wilson
J.J. Putz
Jose Valverde
Heath Bell

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There aren’t many closers worth keeping in traditional fantasy leagues, where keeper spots may be limited and are saved for the best of the best. Once you move beyond the game’s elite closers, you start to run into guys that carry greater risk, perhaps more risk than you’d be willing to assume with a keeper spot. Those are the guys you’ll find in Tier Two of our keeper rankings, including the two pitchers who started last year as the top fantasy closers in baseball.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season value rankings for reference, but they’re weren’t the only criteria used to put together the rankings/tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

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