Kenley Jansen, Top Non-Closer to Own?

At the time this was written, MockDraftCentral.com had completed 475 mixed league drafts and Kenley Jansen was going as the number 18 overall reliever, on average. That price may seem a bit steep for a reliever not guaranteed to close games at any point in the season, but it is a price that seems adequate when looking at Jansen’s actual production.

Aside from Jansen’s incredible numbers, which I will get to in a bit, the pitcher likely ahead of him on the closer depth chart, Javy Guerra, does not have quite the same repertoire or prestige. Guerra throws a lot of pitches, but none as effective as Jansen’s cutter, as PitchFX labels his most commonly thrown pitch. Before last season, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Jansen as the team’s number two overall prospect. It is rare that you see a reliever ranked so high in prospect rankings, but Jansen’s incredible arm and bat missing ability won Goldstein over.

2011	IP	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	LOB%	BABIP
Kenley Jansen	53.2	44.0	11.9	2.85	1.74	76.2	.297
Javy Guerra	46.2	19.5	9.2	2.31	3.30	83.3	.261

As mentioned previously and seen above, Guerra simply does not have the same type of talent as Jansen. He was able to maintain the lower ERA in 2011, but his other numbers point to that being more of a one year anomaly rather than an annual occurrence. The much lower strikeout rate combined with only a slightly lower walk rate lead to Guerra being a much less efficient pitcher than Jansen. It is likely that, at some point, the Dodgers understand this and hand ninth inning duties over to Jansen full-time. Whether handing the better reliever the closer role is the correct baseball decision is a discussion for another time.

So, with the relatively high chances that Jansen closes at some point in 2011, where does that rank him among other top non-closing relievers? Mike Adams is in a similar position, as he is the more talented pitcher at this point than Joe Nathan. However, the Rangers just handed Nathan a $14m contract over the next two years, so removing the incumbent closer will be a bit more difficult in Texas than in Los Angeles.

Other notable and comparable relievers would be David Robertson, Jonny Venters, and Sean Marshall. All three of these have stud closers in their path to the ninth inning role, and would need an injury or a freak occurrence in order to earn regular save opportunities. With Jansen, all that is needed is the type of production he has put forth throughout his professional career. Of all four, Jansen’s path to the ninth inning is much easier and much more likely.

Tyler Clippard and Sergio Romo also deserve mention, but Clippard’s extraordinary left on base rate of 95.6% and ERA-FIP split of 1.34 are serious causes for concern. With Romo, his manager’s lack of faith in him against left-handed batters and the fact that others were given save opportunities before him during Brian Wilson’s DL residence make him a lesser quality roto reliever than Jansen.

Grant Balfour is another distinguished reliever in a good position. He is probably going to pitch better than Brian Fuentes, but he suffers from similar problems as Clippard (High LOB% and big ERA-FIP split in ’11), though the likelihood of him getting save opportunities is higher. With that said, he is still a far cry away from the type of talent that Jansen is. Addison Reed has a solid chance to earn save opportunities, and while he is also a rare talent, Jansen has a bit more experience against Major League hitters. Reed may end up being as productive or more productive than Jansen, but he is a bit of a riskier bet with minimal professional experience.

Even if you assume no closers get injured and Jansen is never given a role as a ninth-inning man, he still would likely be the best middle reliever to draft in standard leagues. With a minimum of 70 innings pitched, only Craig Kimbrel’s career rate of 15.39 strikeouts per nine innings is better than Jansen’s 15.29 mark, ever. While that is an extremely small sample to compare to the rest of the pitchers to ever play the game, no other pitcher has a K/9 rate higher than 12.17 for their career. Jansen’s lowest K/9 rate at any level is 14.53 in high-A ball. The strikeouts are here to stay, and you would be wise to grab Jansen before one of your opponents reaps the benefits of owning the best non-closer in fantasy.