With only 30 closers available in a draft able to accumulate Saves at any one time, not all fantasy teams will have the opportunity to get 3 closers in a 12 team league, not alone in a 20 team league. With a limited number of closers available, it is important to find other relievers to help generate stats. I am going to look at 3 of the best non-closers in the game, Koji Uehara, Sergio Romo and Joaquin Benoit.
Here is a short list of relievers that had a higher xFIP than the Indians’ Vinnie Pestano last season, John Axford, Mike Adams, Jonny Venters, Glen Perkins, and Ryan Madson. That is an extremely impressive list of closers and set-up men that Pestano was, at worst, comparable with last year.
Currently, Pestano is being drafted in just 1.5% of Mock Draft Central drafts, less than Joel Peralta, Mark Melancon, Nick Masset, and Evan Meek, to name a few. This is not to say that the aforementioned are bad relievers, but they probably do not have the same fantasy value that Pestano has at this point.
While he does not have tremendous velocity or great secondary offerings, his assortment of fastball variations and a solid slurve-slider have made him an incredibly productive reliever. While he sat on his four-seam fastball 44.4% of the time according to PITCHf/x last year, his two-seamer and cutter were thrown a combined 34.6%, all of which sat between 92 and 93 mph on average. It is certainly difficult to strike batters out at a 33.6% clip with 80% of offerings being thrown at the same average speed, but the former Cal State Fullerton closer was able to do so. Pestano does not throw his slider much more frequently in two-strike counts either, throwing it on just 19.4% of two strike pitches.
With one of the bigger signings of the winter completed last week in Prince Fielder joining Detroit, one of the more talked about fantasy storylines is Miguel Cabrera’s likely new third base eligibility. Jim Leyland has stated Cabrera wants to and will play third base, which helps his draft stock but could potentially hurt the stock of Tiger pitchers.
Jose Valverde may be affected more than the rest of the group. Converting 49 saves in as many opportunities will have Valverde’s draft value at an all-time high, with Mock Draft Central drafts currently averaging Valverde as the seventh reliever taken. If Cabrera is being drafted due to his likely third and first base eligibility, it is being assumed that he actually will appear at third base at least semi-regularly. While he only needs a bit more than a handful of games to qualify at third, Leyland’s comments give confidence in constructing drafts around the thought that Cabrera will play third base often. This means other players should be drafted under that same assumption, such as Valverde. There is at least some risk that Cabrera is the Tiger’s third baseman, which adds additional risk to Tiger pitchers.
Although I am only about a third of the way through my hitter projections, I am already bored and have been itching to start up on pitchers. So after getting a taste of the methodology and process I employ in coming up with projections on the offensive side of the ledger, it’s time to look under the hood of my pitcher projections. The exciting part for you is that these projections will differ from the forecasting systems much more so than the hitter projections. So there is much more room for debate and of course having the fun of being right. Without further ado, it’s time to dive into how I project pitchers.
At the time this was written, MockDraftCentral.com had completed 475 mixed league drafts and Kenley Jansen was going as the number 18 overall reliever, on average. That price may seem a bit steep for a reliever not guaranteed to close games at any point in the season, but it is a price that seems adequate when looking at Jansen’s actual production.
Aside from Jansen’s incredible numbers, which I will get to in a bit, the pitcher likely ahead of him on the closer depth chart, Javy Guerra, does not have quite the same repertoire or prestige. Guerra throws a lot of pitches, but none as effective as Jansen’s cutter, as PitchFX labels his most commonly thrown pitch. Before last season, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus ranked Jansen as the team’s number two overall prospect. It is rare that you see a reliever ranked so high in prospect rankings, but Jansen’s incredible arm and bat missing ability won Goldstein over.
There may not be a better value pick among closers this year than Jordan Walden. While much of the closer buzz is around Craig Kimbrel, Walden appears to be a poor man’s version of the number one roto reliever. While at lesser rates, Walden can also provide a high strikeout total, tally up saves, and accrue a superb ERA. Even though Walden is one of six projected closers with a strikeout rate at 26.5% or higher, it is doubtful that he ever reaches the 100 strikeout barrier as Kimbrel did in his rookie season. However, that does not mean that the two are entirely dissimilar.
Arbitration settlements are coming in today, and two notable relievers are in the news. Francisco Rodriguez got eight million, and Juan Carlos Oviedo (aka Leo Nunez) got six million. Both are stuck behind closers that should keep their jobs if healthy — do they have any fantasy value?
Back in July, the man behind the scoring system for ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues made a modest proposal for an update on pitcher scoring. Justin Merry was generally happy with the scoring system but found that the scores for a few random games made no sense.
To fix those, he recommended adding hits as a category, penalizing pitchers for each hit they allow, and reassessing the value of each of the other stats in accordance with that change. As we head towards 2012, the decision was made to accept his proposal and update scoring for pitchers. By looking back at 2011 stats, we can see the impact this scoring change will have.
The Reds picked up a top tier closer on a short deal, and there are plenty of reasons to love this in real life and in fantasy. In fact, the real life reasons inform the fantasy reasons. It’s all one big package, and Ryan “Mad Dog” Madson is the bow.
Why love it in real life? The Reds aren’t on the hook after 2012, and that probably suits them fine. Relievers are volatile from year to year, even one as nice as the Mad Dog. And the Reds are an exercise in learning from their own mistakes.
A pitcher in Petco Park should always be on your fantasy radar. With the trade of Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Cashner became the most recent pitcher to be acquired by the Padres. While Cashner will pitch out of the bullpen next season, he still could have some fantasy value. Things could get more interesting in 2013, when Cashner could move into the rotation. Knowing that Cashner might be far more valuable a season down the road, is it worth it to take a chance on him in a keeper or dynasty league next season?
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