Downgrade Valverde?
With one of the bigger signings of the winter completed last week in Prince Fielder joining Detroit, one of the more talked about fantasy storylines is Miguel Cabrera’s likely new third base eligibility. Jim Leyland has stated Cabrera wants to and will play third base, which helps his draft stock but could potentially hurt the stock of Tiger pitchers.
Jose Valverde may be affected more than the rest of the group. Converting 49 saves in as many opportunities will have Valverde’s draft value at an all-time high, with Mock Draft Central drafts currently averaging Valverde as the seventh reliever taken. If Cabrera is being drafted due to his likely third and first base eligibility, it is being assumed that he actually will appear at third base at least semi-regularly. While he only needs a bit more than a handful of games to qualify at third, Leyland’s comments give confidence in constructing drafts around the thought that Cabrera will play third base often. This means other players should be drafted under that same assumption, such as Valverde. There is at least some risk that Cabrera is the Tiger’s third baseman, which adds additional risk to Tiger pitchers.
As seen above, Valverde has seen his strikeout per nine rate drop in each of the past five seasons, with his strikeout per walk ratio decreasing from ’08-’10 — now sitting below league average for two straight seasons. In addition, the flamboyant closer netted a 37.1% ground ball rate from ’06-’08 and a rate of 46.1% over the past three years.
It seems as though age has affected Valverde, who will pitch at age 34 this season. He has become a different type of pitcher, remaining effective but needing to focus more on forcing weak contact as his walk rate rises and his strikeout rate declines. This has allowed him to record stellar results while recording poor peripheral statistics.
His career ERA-FIP split of .050 over 521.1 innings and eight season signals that the spread may be sustainable, but adding Cabrera to the left side of the infield may cause it to, at least somewhat, tighten. The steady increase in ground ball rates has helped him preserve a .240 BABIP over the past two years, fourth lowest in baseball with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. Cabrera jumping over to third should bump that number up if Valverde’s strikeout, walk, and ground ball trends continue.
Since 2003, Cabrera’s -4.5 UZR/150 is the 11th worst of any third baseman with at least 3,000 innings at the position. He has not played the position regularly since 2007, which was during his much thinner days. Contrast that to the player he will be replacing at third base, Brandon Inge, who posted the 12th best UZR/150 at 5.6 during that same span, and it is easy to expect a significant drop defensively at the hot corner. Both UZR and DRS point to Inge’s defense also being in a decline period, but he is still a significantly better defender, as his lowest career UZR/150 in any given season is -0.4, better than all but one of Cabrera’s years at the position.
Even first base will see a defensive downgrade. While Cabrera’s defense is still rather poor at first base, his career UZR/150 of -2.7 bests Fielder’s career -6.4 mark. The infield could be in even more trouble if Ryan Raburn appears in more games at second base this season, as he totaled just 56 games and 401 innings at second last year. Raburn’s career UZR/150 at second base is -23.8 over 777.2 innings. While he may not be as poor a defender as that number suggests, and defensive metrics are still to be used with some caution, a number so low points to very poor defense even if they have been treating him unfavorably.
Valverde should continue to pitch well, and his choke-hold lock on the closer position is a value not commonly factored in when evaluating the position for fantasy purposes. Even with those aspects included, his downward trending strikeout rate and upward trending ground ball tendencies provide a serious cause for concern. Valverde’s save percentage may appeal to some, but his diminishing peripherals, age, and Deteroit’s new defensive alignment are better to use when projecting future performance. Valverde could be valuable if he falls further in drafts, but over-drafting him can force an owner to miss out on a higher quality draft pick and maybe even a higher quality closer.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
I imagine the Tigers could just put Inge at 3B and move Miggy to DH for the 9th inning when they need a defensive infield
One does not simply move a player to DH.
^This
I think you lose the DH if you replace him during a game. Is that correct?
Yeah, that would be illegal.
Replacing your best player defensively or with a pinch runner late in the game sometimes seems like a wise decision, but it often causes more problems than it creates. Doing so with your lesser players who are better at a certain aspect of the game and worse at another is when defensive replacements make a lot more sense.
As the commenter above noted, moving him to DH is an even less likely option than replacing him altogether.
Unless my arithmetic is seriously wrong, your concern is overstated. Let’s try to quantify the impact.
Suppose that Inge / Kelly’s true talent at 3B in 2012 is 6 runs per 150 games above average and that Miguel Cabrera’s true talent at 3B is 30 runs per 150 games below average. Further suppose that Cabrera plays half of Valverde’s innings at 3B instead of Inge / Kelly. I’m trying to state a worst case scenario. If Cabrera is even worse than that at 3B, then he’ll lose playing time or get pulled more often for a defensive replacement. Let’s also suppose that Valverde is about the MLB average in terms of generating plays at 3B (his GB% last year was about average although it was higher in 2010).
The difference between Cabrera and Inge / Kelly is 36 runs per 150 games. For a 162 game season in which Cabrera plays 81 games, that’s 36 x 81/150 = 19.44. In 2011, Valverde pitched 72.33 IP, so 19.44 runs lost for the whole season x 72.33 / (162 * 9) = 0.96 runs lost while Valverde is on the mound. Multiply it by 9 and divide by 72.33 and we should expect Valverde’s RA to rise by 0.12 compared to before Cabrera was going to be at 3B. Multiply by 92% to include just earned runs (which is generous – presumably Cabrera’s impact will disproportionately affect unearned runs), and Valverde’s ERA can be expected to rise 0.11.
Maybe Valverde blows a half save more but on the other hand he might be handed more save opportunities than we expected before the Tigers signed Prince Fielder.
There are lots of legitimate reasons, many mentioned in your article, for believing that Jose Valverde will have worse results in 2012 than he had in 2011. Having Miguel Cabrera play 3B for some of Valverde’s innings is far from the top of that list of reasons.
If my arithmetic is seriously flawed, let me know.
Math isn’t wrong, but the downward trending strikeout rate, now below average K/BB rate, and upward trending ground ball rate is something that will likely hurt Valverde’s results.
If he pitches exactly like last year, his ERA could rise the 0.11 that you mentioned — but trends over the past few years point to him pitching worse. Main concept of the article is that people are drafting Valverde based off last year and not based on his peripherals nor the new defense behind him — which should be worse than last year’s.
I agree, and already wrote, that there are many legitimate reasons including some mentioned in the article for believing that Valverde is likely to be worse in 2012 than he was in 2011. However, the article’s first two paragraphs base it on Cabrera at 3B, which I believe is a rather small effect viewed in isolation.
This is kinda OT from the topic but since it’s about a closer’s peripheral’s getting worse I figure I’d ask. How important is a closers ERA or WHIP in fantasy? I’ve been playing for a couple years now and I basically just judge a closers worth by how many saves they get because they pitch so few innings the ERA or WHIP total seems like it wouldn’t make much of a difference(unless of course it’s really drastic) am I way off base here by thinking that?
It is certainly not a bad strategy to draft solely for saves. Plenty of intelligent players I know would rather take closers toward the tail end of the draft or pick them up off the scrap heap or in trades throughout the season. Paying for closers is certainly not always the best idea, but there is value in an extremely low ERA and WHIP over the course of 55-75 innings. Strikeouts are also a big plus, as if you have two very impressive closers with low ERAs and high strikeout totals, you can end up with what could equate to ~125 innings of an incredible starter.
I think a lot of people who are drafting Cabrera to play third don’t expect him to be actually playing it by May 1, so it doesn’t necessarily follow that because people are expecting him to be eligible at third, we should expect him to play third enough to seriously impact pitchers.
Cabrera will start and finish the season at 3rd. The Tigers are committed to that. There is no where else for him to play. He doesn’t want to be a DH but is ok with it once a week.
Leyland has already said that Inge / Kelly will never be used for defensive replacements in later innings at the expense of losing Cabrera in the lineup no matter what the score is.
My guess is that Cabrera will DH once a week, probably when Fister or Porcello are scheduled to start.
I don’t care where he plays as long as he is wearing that English D and is in the lineup. He is is one of the best hitters of his generation and has the potential to be a Hall of Famer. I hope more Tiger fans begin to appreciate that while he is here. The guy is an amazing hitter.
The manager fills out a new line-up card before every game. Plans announced in the spring often change during the actual unfolding of a season.