Yesterday, we looked in on one of the top closer-setup tandems outside of the Bronx. Zach Britton and Darren O’Day are the best at what they do. As it turns out, the Marlins also have a couple elite relievers who are the very best at something – A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps.
With the departure of Francisco Rodriguez, the Milwaukee closer role is Will Smith’s to lose. Smith took big steps last season improving his K%, BB%, ERA (or FIP, if that’s more your cup of tea), HR/9, and K:BB%. Smith is trending in the right direction with all of these metrics.
| Season | Team | Age | IP | ERA | FIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | K/BB |
| 2012 | Royals | 22 | 89.2 | 5.32 | 4.66 | 5.92 | 3.31 | 1.20 | 1.79 |
| 2013 | Royals | 23 | 33.1 | 3.24 | 3.53 | 11.61 | 1.89 | 1.62 | 6.14 |
| 2014 | Brewers | 24 | 65.2 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 11.79 | 4.25 | 0.82 | 2.77 |
| 2015 | Brewers | 25 | 63.1 | 2.70 | 2.47 | 12.93 | 3.41 | 0.71 | 3.79 |
The main reason it would seem that Smith has improved so well is his pitch selection. Smith started using his fastball less, particularly his 2-seamer, and increased the usage of his slider, which is by far his most effective pitch. Outside of 2012, his wSL has been his most positive pitch, combining for 16.1 runs above average for the past three years. His fastball, on the other hand, has graded out at negative 21.4 over the past four years. Could he become the next Andrew Miller?
When the eighth and ninth innings roll around, the Orioles will turn to a familiar pair of relief aces. Zach Britton just pitched the best season of his life. In one regard, he is the best player in all of Baseball Land. His setup man, Darren O’Day, is also the very best in his own quirky way.
One of the more exciting effects of offseason player movement is the opening up of closer roles. When established closers sign somewhere else or get sent packing as part of a trade, us fantasy nerds have all the fun of speculating who steps up to fill the vacated role and how likely it is that the pitcher holds the job all year. After the Yankees stole traded for incumbent Reds closer Aroldis Chapman, there was a gaping hole at the back end of the Reds bullpen. Since the Reds are clearly in rebuilding mode, it’s highly unlikely they go out and trade for or sign another reliever to fill the void. So at the moment, all signs point to J.J. Hoover opening the season as their closer. We’ll expand on the battle and other options when we begin our depth chart discussions in the coming weeks. But today’s post is all about Hoover.
Jeff and I will be covering the fantasy implications of key transactions all winter long here at Rotographs. You can catch up on past deals here. The Winter Meetings wrap up early today with the Rule 5 Draft, but the last full day of action gave us a couple more high-impact trades:
To HOU: Ken Giles
To PHI: Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Derek Fisher, and Thomas Eshelman
Primary piece(s): It seemed pretty clear that it was a “when” not “if” situation regarding the Astros acquiring a closer. They have been tied to all the available big-time closers and finally landed their guy in Giles. This might actually work out best as others they were targeting either lacked long-term control (Aroldis Chapman – I’m not ignoring his awfulness off the field, but that came to pass when Houston was already out of the running) or cost a pretty penny for said control (Andrew Miller).
• He allowed a two-run homer to Lucas Duda, but Ken Giles otherwise held on for his 14th save of the year. Giles was a top tier non-save relief option last year and he’s kept it up this season while accumulating saves. His K% dropped to 29.6% from a ridiculous 38.6% last year but a 30% strikeout rate is still elite and although he’ll continue to close on the Phillies, Giles should be a prime target in 2016.
• Although Matt Williams let Jonathan Papelbon stay in the game after his throat grab on Bryce Harper, he’s now been suspended by the Washington Nationals for four games. Other people have been discussing the fight all day so I’ll only talk as it relates to the bullpen. I wouldn’t necessarily expect Papelbon to be welcomed with open arms after his suspension is over so his days of closing might be done this season and possibly even next year as well. I’ve removed him from the grid, putting Casey Janssen in his place. Matt Thornton threw a scoreless ninth today in a four-run game and could also be used in the ninth in Papelbon’s absence.
A couple of weeks ago, I investigated Justin Verlander’s resurgence. I found reasons to validate his hot streak but turned up additional question marks along the way.
One of them was his zone contact rate (Z-Contact%). At 79.7 percent, it would have been the second-lowest of his career by several percentage points (despite not performing “at peak”). However, I realize now, unfortunately, that I must have encountered a glitch in the leaderboards — his Z-Contact% as of August 21 (because the post, despite running the same day as his Aug. 26 start, was published prior to it) was 85.7 percent.
Regardless, it got me thinking what affects a pitcher’s zone contact rate because it correlates very strongly with strikeout rate (R-squared = .594). User DoubleJ speculated about the metric via comment on one of last week’s posts:
• Rough night for the Nationals pen against the Mets. With a six run lead in the seventh, Blake Treinen, Felipe Rivero and Drew Storen walked six batters, allowing six earned runs to blow the lead. In the next inning Jonathan Papelbon gave up the go-ahead homer to Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Jeurys Familia wasn’t perfect allowing a few baserunners but held on for his 38th save of the season. The Mets have done a nice job with their in-season additions this year and it’s no different with the bullpen where Addison Reed (two strikeouts in a scoreless seventh) and Tyler Clippard (two strikeouts in a perfect eighth) have helped strengthen the bridge to Jeurys.
A quick rundown of the early games as we head into September.
• With Brad Ziegler in need of rest after a rough outing on Monday, the Diamondbacks went to Dan Hudson for the save against the Rockies. After two hits, two strikeouts and an earned run, Hudson netted his third save of the year. Ziegler’s worm killing ways (73% GB%) are still first in line but Hudson has cemented his role in the pecking order if anything were to happen to Ziegler.