Archive for Closers

• Bud Norris was placed on the DL with knee inflammation and he’s been replaced on the grid somewhat by Cam Bedrosian. Bedrosian threw a scoreless frame on Saturday and also threw a perfect seventh this evening getting the Hold against the Yankees. There was no save situation but David Hernandez pitched in the ninth with Keynan Middleton also seeing some high leverage innings throwing a perfect eighth. It’s tough to gauge where the saves lie currently in Anaheim but I’m going to put Cam in the closer’s chair as he’s their best currently healthy reliever (when he’s healthy). I’d partially consider this a platoon of sorts until it gets sorted out which won’t get any less confusing as Huston Street is set to return at some point this week. I could see Street leapfrogging the competition if they do poorly but given his lack of success and health concerns of his own in recent years I think Street will be eased into the bullpen.

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• The biggest news of the day is that Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have switched roles, for now. Terry Francona suggested that he was throwing Andrew Miller too much and the change in roles should remain “for the time being.” How long that is, nobody is really sure but since it’s not a matter of performance I don’t think the change will last too long. This situation remains green as it’s definitely Andrew Miller’s job but it just may not remain that way for all that much time.

Now is as good a time as any to brag about Andrew Miller this season. In 35.2 innings he has a 1.51/1.92/2.70 ERA/FIP/xFIP with a 2.16 SIERA and 51 strikeouts against just eight walks. Miller will see fewer innings but the increase in saves will certainly only help his value, in a save focused league of course. Allen has been great as well but he’s more the generally great reliever with a 2.00/2.57/3.86 pitching line and not the top tier that Miller is. Allen’s value will fall a bit pitching in the eighth but he also might see an uptick in his overall usage, helping those ratios and strikeout totals. This might end up being more noise than anything else but adjust your saves projections accordingly.

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A special Father’s Day edition of the Bullpen Report, with a tip of the hat to all the baseball-loving dads out there. It was a busy Sunday for bullpen activity across the major leagues…

Mark Melancon entered the ninth with a two-run lead and blew his fourth save of the season in 14 chances. Melancon missed time earlier this year with a pronator strain in his right forearm, and apparently it’s a lingering issue. The loss dropped the Giants to 26-45 and 19.5 games back in the National League West. Since the Giants are probably just about ready to throw in the towel on 2017, Melancon will probably land on the disabled list before too long if he really is injured. He’s already blown as many saves and allowed as many home runs in 17.2 innings this year as he did in 71.1 innings last year. Hunter Strickland is probably next in line for saves in San Francisco should Melancon miss time, with Derek Law also a possibility, but it’s worth noting that Major League Baseball still hasn’t ruled on Strickland’s suspension appeal for his involvement in the incident with Bryce Harper late last month. A ruling (and subsequent suspension) should be forthcoming for Strickland.

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• I would be lying if I said I expected Fernando Rodney to still be closing in June but here we are with Rodney launching his 18th arrow tonight against the Tigers. For the season Rodney still has a unsightly ERA at 5.11 but his 4.30 SIERA and 3.96/4.49 FIP/xFIP are at least less terrible. At the end of April Rodney had allowed 14 runs in 10 innings pitched, but since then he’s actually thrown 14.2 scoreless innings across 15 appearances.  A few bad outings could still cause the Diamondbacks to make a change and they have a few compelling alternatives in Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, and J.J. Hoover but Rodney’s leash should be about as strong as a 5+ ERA would allow. I might regret this, but I’m changing this situation to green. God help us all.

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I’m going to continue looking at my recent pERA rankings after writing about starters the last couple of days. Today, I am going to examine the top non-closers. These guys may not be closing now but are showing some promising skills to open the season.

Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).

James Hoyt (2.12 pERA): In a handful of innings, Hoyt has a 43% K% and a 6% BB%. Insane. These raw skills are being masked by a 1.5 HR/FB and .400 BABIP which has pushed his ERA to 4.08.

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6/8/17

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Leading Off: Question of the Day (5:30)

• Can you name the top-rated SS on ESPN’s Player Rater?
  • It’s not Zack Cozart, but we do discuss him, too! (12:45)

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Dallas Keuchel to DL again w/neck issue (19:30)
• Jacob Faria debuts for TB – 6.3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 93 mph, 4 pitches (29:00)
• Mike Foltynewicz goes 7 scoreless for 2nd straight start (36:06)

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• Corey Knebel was called on in the ninth and pitched a perfect frame for his sixth save of the year. Before and after taking the closer’s gig from Neftali Feliz, Knebel has been outright fantastic. A 14.2% BB% isn’t ideal but when you combine it with a K% of 45.1% it’s plenty OK. Knebel’s SIERA stands at 2.36 and his ERA/FIP/xFIP after tonight’s outing is 1.24/2.12/2.24. Among qualified relievers his strikeout rate ranks 5th and in spite of the elevate walks his K-BB% still ranks 12th. Knebel was intriguing last year but it’s hard to say anyone saw this coming. I expected the Brewers to be sellers at the deadline and with their recent history of trading relievers I figured Knebel could have been shipped out like Tyler Thornberg last year. Instead the Brewers are in first place and Knebel figures to stay, continue to get saves and rack up strikeouts.

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• Not a standard save in Chicago tonight as Mike Montgomery went 3.1 innings for his second save of the year. Wade Davis had thrown a couple days in a row so Koji Uehara received the save opportunity last night for the Cubs. Wade Davis is now ready to pitch but was actually placed on paternity leave. We won’t take him off the grid for such a short break but look for Uehara to get a look in the ninth if an opportunity arises tomorrow. Montgomery has only pitched out the pen to start the year and although his ERA dropped to 2.21 after tonight’s outing, his 3.78 FIP and 4.29 xFIP and 26 strikeouts against 20 walks in 36.2 innings don’t paint the picture of someone worth rostering at the moment.

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Plenty of compelling bullpen activity around the major leagues on a busy Sunday afternoon…

Koda Glover was brought into an existing eighth inning with a 6-4 lead, two outs, and a runner on second. He retired Jed Lowrie to end the inning, then the Nationals proceeded to score five runs in a long top of the ninth. Despite the 11-4 lead and lengthy half inning, Glover came back out for the bottom of the ninth, and he allowed four straight singles and a walk before being replaced by Shawn Kelley with the bases loaded, no outs, and two runs already in. After retiring Rajai Davis on a shallow fly ball, Kelley served up a grand slam to Matt Joyce that made it 11-10 Nationals. Kelley retired the next two batters he faced to secure the victory. When it was all said and done, Glover was charged with five earned runs in 0.1 innings, and Kelley was charged with one earned run in one inning.

Despite today’s craziness, Glover has brought much-needed calm to the Nationals bullpen as of late. He has four saves since May 24, and before today, he had recorded saves in four straight appearances. This was the first time Glover has allowed a run in 10 appearances since he landed on the disabled list with a left hip impingement in late April. Even with today’s meltdown, Glover has a 1.74 FIP and 3.21 xFIP on the season. A 3.21 xFIP is hardly something to scoff at, and it seems as if the Nationals have finally found their ninth-inning man (although it remains probable they’ll target bullpen help before the trading deadline). The home run Kelley gave up was the seventh he’s allowed in 15 innings this season, and overall, he has a 5.40 ERA and 5.37 xFIP. As such, he has been surpassed on the grid by Matt Albers, who boasts a strong 1.29 ERA and 3.14 xFIP in 21 innings this year. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of quick notes from Memorial Day:

• Tony Watson got the win after Andrew McCutchen hit a walk-off homer which is nice but it also meant that he blew the save (his third of the season) as well. On the year Watson has a very mediocre 4.03/5.31/4.82 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. As a lefty without considerable swing and miss stuff, Watson may not be long for closing in Pittsburgh. Behind him we have Felipe Rivero and Daniel Hudson and I would look to grab Rivero pretty soon if you’re looking for saves. Although he is also a lefty, his 0.68/2.80/2.90 pitching line with nearly a 27% K% is more in line with what one expects out of their closer. Tony Watson might not have much leash left and I’m moving this situation to red as I would rather sound the alarm a tad early over having you pass on placing a bid on Rivero.

• We might have a committee in San Diego. Brad Hand received two save opportunities earlier but the last two, including last night, went to Brandon Maurer. I am going to keep Maurer in the closer’s chair for now as he received the most recent saves and was the closer to start the year. However, Hand showed he could handle the job if Maurer were to falter again. Maurer has a 6.00 ERA but 20 strikeouts against only 4 walks indicates he’s actually pitched quite well, in spite of his .351 BABIP and 51.7% LOB%. If Maurer pitches like his underlying numbers indicate, Hand may not see many more save opportunities but a manager won’t be so patient as an ERA climbs up from 6.00.

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