Bullpen Report: June 6, 2017

• Corey Knebel was called on in the ninth and pitched a perfect frame for his sixth save of the year. Before and after taking the closer’s gig from Neftali Feliz, Knebel has been outright fantastic. A 14.2% BB% isn’t ideal but when you combine it with a K% of 45.1% it’s plenty OK. Knebel’s SIERA stands at 2.36 and his ERA/FIP/xFIP after tonight’s outing is 1.24/2.12/2.24. Among qualified relievers his strikeout rate ranks 5th and in spite of the elevate walks his K-BB% still ranks 12th. Knebel was intriguing last year but it’s hard to say anyone saw this coming. I expected the Brewers to be sellers at the deadline and with their recent history of trading relievers I figured Knebel could have been shipped out like Tyler Thornberg last year. Instead the Brewers are in first place and Knebel figures to stay, continue to get saves and rack up strikeouts.

• Hector Neris started the ninth inning getting Nick Markakis to pop up but after allowing back-to-back singles the Phillies went with Pat Neshek to get the last two outs, for his first save of the year. Neris has never had a totally firm grasp on the role as they went back and forth with Joaquin Benoit earlier, so it’s certainly not a great sign that they didn’t give him a chance to finish the game. Neshek has also been the best pitcher in the pen this year with a 0.82/2.28/3.82 pitching line. His .218 BABIP and 96.2% LOB% indicate he’s been quite lucky and he’s likely more good than great but he may find himself pitching in more ninth innings waiting for regression rathre than the eighth. I’m not making a change in the order here but I am making this situation RED. I would put a claim on Neshek if he’s available, nothing is imminent but consider Neris on notice.

• Bud Norris started off strong with two outs in the save opp tonight but things got testy as he allowed the bases loaded before striking out Alex Avila to secure his 11th save. It’s not particularity strong timing for Norris to throw an iffy inning as Cam Bedrosian expects to be activated on Thursday. Bedrosian has a very messy injury history of late so I don’t think any immediate return to the ninth inning or pitching back-to-back games is imminent but it is an additional person lurking over Norris’ shoulder.

• Tony Watson blew his fourth save on the year and I’m changing Pittsburgh to Red. Watson simply isn’t fooling anyone and his ERA/FIP/xFIP line now stands at 3.91/5.42/4.78. Meanwhile Felipe Rivero struck out two batters in 1.1 innings, getting his 13th hold on the year and now has a 0.60/2.59/2.82 line. It’s hard to knock Watson being a lefty when I’m pointing to Rivero who is also a south paw but he’s been simply fantastic this year. Watson is probably better than he’s pitching but should be mostly used a lefty setup option and might be extended being used as a classic closer. There has been no word on a change but I would run to pick up Rivero.

• Ken Giles‘ job isn’t necessarily in danger but I’m moving Houston to yellow. Giles allowed all his inherited runners to score in the eighth after James Hoyt struggled and then proceeded to lose the game in the ninth after a Mike Moustakas walk-off homer. Every closer is allowed a leash but given the depth of options in Houston’s pen, Giles may not be given as many chances as another team would. Will Harris is the obvious next choice in the pecking order and behind him I’ve put Michael Feliz. Luke Gregerson, James Hoyt and Chris Devenski linger in some order as well.

• Quick Hits: David Robertson (9) threw a perfect ninth. Tommy Kahnle pitched the eighth for the White Sox and gave up a rare earned run but it’s hard for owners to complain with his 41/6 K/BB in 23.2 innings pitched. Craig Kimbrel was called on for a four out save and converted, getting an insane five (yes five) strikeouts on the way. I’ve been fawning over other relievers tonight but after this outing  Kimbrel has 53 strikeouts against just 5 walks in 26.2 innings. Kimbrel almost gets two strikeouts for every inning he pitches this year and has essentially broken ERA estimators with a 1.01/0.24/0/0.80 line. After taking a year off, Kimbrel is back to being the elite of the elite, enjoy the ride. Matt Bush struggled in a non-save situation tonight but it’s worth noting that his underlying numbers are looking less than stellar. A 2.61 ERA is great but 4.46 FIP and 4.04 xFIP is less so.

Closer Grid:

	Closer	First	Second	DL/Minors
ARI	Fernando Rodney	Archie Bradley	JJ Hoover
ATL	Jim Johnson	Arodys Vizcaino	Jose Ramirez
BAL	Brad Brach	Darren O’Day	Mychal Givens	Zach Britton
BOS	Craig Kimbrel	Matt Barnes	Heath Hembree	Carson Smith
CHC	Wade Davis	Koji Uehara	Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS	David Robertson	Tommy Kahnle	Anthony Swarzak	Nate Jones
CIN	Raisel Iglesias	Michael Lorenzen	Drew Storen
CLE	Cody Allen	Andrew Miller	Bryan Shaw
COL	Greg Holland	Jake McGee	Mike Dunn	Adam Ottavino
DET	Justin Wilson	Alex Wilson	Shane Greene
HOU	Ken Giles	Will Harris	Michael Feliz
KC	Kelvin Herrera	Joakim Soria	Mike Minor
LAA	Bud Norris	David Hernandez	Blake Parker	Cam Bedrosian
LAD	Kenley Jansen	Pedro Baez	Josh Fields
MIA	A.J. Ramos	David Phelps	Kyle Barraclough
MIL	Corey Knebel	Jacob Barnes	Neftali Feliz
MIN	Brandon Kintzler	Matt Belisle	Taylor Rogers	Glen Perkins
NYM	Addison Reed	Jerry Blevins	Paul Sewald	Jeurys Familia
NYY	Dellin Betances	Tyler Clippard	Adam Warren	Aroldis Chapman
OAK	Santiago Casilla	Ryan Madson	Liam Hendriks	Sean Doolittle
PHI	Hector Neris	Pat Neshek	Edubray Ramos	Joaquin Benoit
PIT	Tony Watson	Felipe Rivero	Juan Nicasio
STL	Seung Hwan Oh	Trevor Rosenthal	Matt Bowman
SD	Brandon Maurer	Brad Hand	Ryan Buchter	Carter Capps
SF	Mark Melancon	Derek Law	Hunter Strickland
SEA	Edwin Diaz	James Pazos	Nick Vincent
TB	Alex Colome	Danny Farquhar	Tommy Hunter	Brad Boxberger
TEX	Matt Bush	Keone Kela	Jose Leclerc
TOR	Roberto Osuna	Joe Smith	Jason Grilli
WSH	Koda Glover	Matt Albers	Shawn Kelley

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]