Bullpen Report: May 30, 2017
A couple of quick notes from Memorial Day:
• Tony Watson got the win after Andrew McCutchen hit a walk-off homer which is nice but it also meant that he blew the save (his third of the season) as well. On the year Watson has a very mediocre 4.03/5.31/4.82 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line. As a lefty without considerable swing and miss stuff, Watson may not be long for closing in Pittsburgh. Behind him we have Felipe Rivero and Daniel Hudson and I would look to grab Rivero pretty soon if you’re looking for saves. Although he is also a lefty, his 0.68/2.80/2.90 pitching line with nearly a 27% K% is more in line with what one expects out of their closer. Tony Watson might not have much leash left and I’m moving this situation to red as I would rather sound the alarm a tad early over having you pass on placing a bid on Rivero.
• We might have a committee in San Diego. Brad Hand received two save opportunities earlier but the last two, including last night, went to Brandon Maurer. I am going to keep Maurer in the closer’s chair for now as he received the most recent saves and was the closer to start the year. However, Hand showed he could handle the job if Maurer were to falter again. Maurer has a 6.00 ERA but 20 strikeouts against only 4 walks indicates he’s actually pitched quite well, in spite of his .351 BABIP and 51.7% LOB%. If Maurer pitches like his underlying numbers indicate, Hand may not see many more save opportunities but a manager won’t be so patient as an ERA climbs up from 6.00.
And onto tonight’s full slate of games but light in terms of bullpen notes:
• Roberto Osuna pitched a clean ninth for his tenth save of the year against the Reds. Michael Lorenzen kept the game close, throwing three scoreless but Blake Wood gave up the lead allowing Osuna a save opportunity. After tonight’s outing, Osuna has 22 strikeouts against only two walks in 19.2 innings. Josh Donaldson hit his first homer since returning from the DL and if he’s up and running again he should help give Osuna a few more save opportunities. The Jays had a very rough start but are at 25-27 and three games back in the Wild Card. They were assumed to be sellers early but now might hold the squad together which should only help Osuna.
• Alex Colome is undoubtedly the closer, but behind him it’s a bit unclear. Danny Farquhar allowed three runs in 0.2 innings tonight and Chase Whitley allowed four baserunners and two runs in one inning. Both are in the mix in the back of the Rays bullpen along with Ryne Stanek, Jose Alvarado, and Tommy Hunter who threw two scoreless innings tonight, although he entered the game in the fifth with starter Matt Andriese leaving the game in the second. I don’t know that the Rays would go to the rookies Stanek or Alvarado if something were to happen to Colome so I’m placing Farquhar (in spite of tonight’s outing) and Hunter behind him.
• A few changes: Adam Ottavino was placed on the DL, moving Jake McGee to setup and Mike Dunn behind him. Those are two southpaws so Chris Rusin, Scott Oberg or Chad Qualls could see some higher leverage innings as well. I moved Tony Zych off of the grid in place of Nick Vincent. Edwin Diaz reclaimed his closer’s chair and Vincent and James Pazos look to be behind him in the pecking order.
• No save in Houston but Chris Devenski pitched a scoreless seventh and eighth with Michael Feliz throwing a scoreless ninth. I have seen Devenski listed on several closer charts but I’m keeping him off of ours for now as he still seems more likely to throw multiple innings than be used primarily as a set up and if anything were to happen to Giles I don’t see the Astros looking to put Devenski in the ninth. Luke Gregerson slot on the grid might not be secure with a 5.66 ERA and James Hoyt and Michael Feliz behind him. Before tonight’s game, Devenski had been less than stellar allowing six runs in his previous 9.2 innings pitched so it’s nice to see him put up a few zeros. On the year Devenski now sits at 2.90/2.12/2.30 in 31 innings with 47 strikeouts, three wins and two saves. Other pitchers might be a little better in one inning spurts but Devenski’s volume still makes him pretty unique.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Baez worth a pickup over Rondon in holds league? Seems like Maddon is using Rondon a lot less in high leverage situations now.
IMO, yes, if holds are your goal. Baez seems like the main 8th inning guy and lately, Carl Edwards, Jr. has been getting the 8th for the Cubs. Though the other day, Uehara started the 8th and Edwards got the last out of the inning. Still, there are too many mouths to feed in Chicago and I’d rather have the primary 8th inning guy there.
The Cubs pen is both good and a tad Maddoning (apologies). Rondon, Baez, and Uehara all occasionally or regularly see the seventh and eighth. With several usable options and an open mind, it’s hard to peg down an exact pecking order. I will say, although Uehara is used in big spots I don’t necessarily see him being used as a primary closer if something were to happen to Davis.
I totally support picking up Rivero and acknowledge Watson’s numbers are ugly, but I’m not so sure his leash is that short. Time and time again we’ve seen MLB managers stick with guys who are both struggling AND awful per underlying metrics (*cough*FernandoRodney*cough*). I don’t think there have really been any rumblings from Hurdle about a change. But, we’ll see, watch him say something about it tomorrow. As a mostly-unrelated sidenote, why don’t you guys usually list SIERA too when doing the slashline of ERA/FIP/xFIP? If anything SIERA’s probably the most accurate measure out of all of them IMO.
I’m in complete agreement with you here. However, I decided that I would prefer to tell guys to pick up Rivero now rather than say it’s still fine, have Watson have another bad game and then everyone is rushing to grab Rivero. If Watson throws a few scoreless innings I will change back to yellow. It goes against him pitching poorly, but Watson could also be moved as a lefty bullpen piece, moving Rivero to close.
As for the ERA/FIP/xFIP, I use that to show a broader range of how a pitcher is doing (maybe great FIP but giving up a ton of homers, etc.) outside of one number. Similar-ish to showing avg/obp/slg instead of wOBA.
Pirates want the most value out of Watson for when he is shipped off to a contender. FA at end of year.
Oh, maybe I was unclear. I was just advocating for listing SIERA in ADDITION to FIP and xFIP. Listing FIP and xFIP is definitely helpful, I just think SIERA is another good number to consider when trying to predict ERA going forward.
FWIW, Nicasio is ahead of Hudson on the closer chart after his poor start of the season
Agree. Came here to post the same thing. Hudson is being used in a semi mop-up role for the time being. Here’s the problem with the Pirates; they don’t have a 7th inning guy really.
Nicasio and LeBlanc are multi-inning guys (or so it would seem). Hudson struggled. Any other combination of the Barbato’s and Bastardo’s of the world aren’t inspiring either.
Meanwhile, Edgar Santana languishes at AAA with a 1.57 ERA and K/9 of 9
At what point do you change the Nationals from Red to Yellow? I think Glover’s success since Dusty named him the closer warrants a change. He’s converted four straight chances and had five straight clean outings (no hits or walks). My guess is Glover would have to blow at least two consecutive opportunites before someone else would be given a chance to close.
Why is Hector Neris still in red? I’d ask the same of Glover at this point as well.