Apologies for the lack of a post yesterday but at least I didn’t miss much. Mark Melancon recorded a save, his ninth on the year and the third since his return from the DL. Of more interest regarding the Giants and Melancon would be the Giants being sellers at the deadline. They just signed Melancon to a deal this offseason but if they hit the reset button, a team in need of relief help could use his services. Washington traded for Melancon last year and although they elected to let him walk, maybe they make a move for him again. In other Monday news, Ken Giles saved his 12th game securing the win for Chris Devenski who threw 2.2 scoreless for Houston. Jim Johnson (9), Bud Norris (9) and Dellin Betances (3) all notched saves as well.

Onto Tuesday…

• Carl Edwards Jr. has been seeing the eighth inning of late and I’m going to bump him up to the grid. The Cubs may not have an obvious set up man but they have plenty of solid options with Hector Rondon and Koji Uehara back there along with Edwards. Uehara is still effective with a 3.45/2.14/3.60 ERA/FIP/xFIP line, but a 42 year old with a 17.5% HR/FB% isn’t the most reliable option, so I’ve moved him off of the grid. It’s possible, and maybe even likely, that the Cubs pick up an additional reliever at the deadline that replaces Rondon and Edwards in the pecking order, but for now we’re going with Edwards and Rondon behind Wade Davis.

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Another exciting night of bullpen activity with full slate of games on Friday…

• Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in an interview on Fantasy Sports Radio that 26-year-old James Pazos could be first in line for save opportunities while Edwin Diaz works through mechanical issues that led to his demotion from the closer’s role earlier this week. Pazos has intriguing numbers across the board in 18.2 innings this year: he boasts a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, a 60.9% ground ball rate, and a tidy 2.41 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.78 xFIP. Diaz was so dominant last season that it remains likely he will eventually harness his mechanics and find his way back into the Seattle bullpen’s most prominent role. He pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, in which he allowed two hits and notched two strikeouts in the eighth and ninth innings of a tie game at home. Despite the scoreless outing, Pazos is worth a speculative add in most formats in case he gets an opportunity to close and runs with it. His numbers seem to indicate that he’s capable of doing so.

• Seung Hwan Oh blew a one-run save opportunity against the Giants on Friday. He allowed two singles and a go-ahead two-run double. Oh is now 10 for 12 in save opportunities, a nice recovery in that department after a very shaky start to the season. However, Oh’s peripherals point to a problem: his 16.3% strikeout rate this year is roughly half of the 32.9% K% he put up last season. He’s also allowed three home runs and nine walks in 21.1 innings. Add it all up, and Oh has an unsightly 4.91 FIP and 5.70 xFIP. Meanwhile, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has been mostly terrific in a set-up role (although he was charged with a blown save in Wednesday’s extra-inning loss to the Red Sox). Rosenthal has a 44.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings, and he should represent a threat to the struggling Oh. If Oh can’t turn it around soon, the Cardinals may have to make a move. The situation has been updated to yellow.

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Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia are on the disabled list. Edwin Diaz, Seung Hwan Oh, Kelvin Herrera, and Sam Dyson have had major difficulties. Greg Holland, Justin Wilson, Corey Knebel, and Bud Norris have been unexpected studs.

If you find yourself frustrated with the volatility of relief pitcher performance, you’re probably not alone. The names above represent just a handful of seemingly dozens of unexpected developments in the relief pitcher landscape that take place throughout the course of season and affect major league rosters and fantasy teams alike.

For example, a few weeks ago, I traded $6 Edwin Diaz and $3 Carter Capps for $9 Mitch Haniger in an Ottoneu fantasy league. Later, I flipped the $9 Haniger for a $9 Gary Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Buckle up boys and girls, we have a real closer carousel in Detroit and San Francisco!

• Mark Melancon was placed on the DL today by the Giants with a mild right pronator strain and while it’s not known how long Melancon will be out for, it’s good to hear that it’s “mild” rather than something unnerving like severe. Melancon had apparently been throwing through some discomfort which is a bit disconcerting but the Giants decided  it’s now time to give him some rest. In his place it looks like Derek Law will receive save opportunities  with Hunter Strickland, Josh Osich and George Kontos behind him. Considering Melancon might have been throwing through what ailed him this doesn’t seem to to take him out for too long but saves are saves are saves so Law is worth grabbing if he’s unowned and even if Melancon only misses the minimum. The biggest predictor of injuries is current/past injuries as well so if any of this lingers, Law could be in line for a higher save total than the initial mild diagnosis. While Law is closing he likely won’t have a long leash to start, consider this red.

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• In spite of the Bizarro World the Mets are currently living in, they had a walk-off win today against the Giants. Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins combined to throw a scoreless seventh leading to Addison Reed in the eighth and Jeurys Familia in the ninth, who received the vulture win for his first victory of the year. We had Jerry Blevins as the third in line on the chart, and for good measure as he’s now pitching toa 0.79/1.32/2.35 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line but I feel Hansel Robles would be closer to saves if something were to happen to both Familia and Reed. Thankfully that’s not the case as the back of the Mets bullpen might be the most or only reliable thing on the team right now. Jeurys Familia was a bit shaky immediately upon his return but he’s looking smoother now and this situation is certainly green.

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• Even a 12.60 ERA and taking the day to become a U.S. citizen can’t keep Fernando Rodney from the ninth inning. J.J. Hoover pitched the seventh and Jorge de la Rosa pitched the eighth, with each allowing a hit and a walk but getting a scoreless inning nonetheless, setting the table for Rodney with a three-run lead.

Rodney, with citizenship in hand pitched a perfect inning for his seventh save. Archie Bradley’s previous usage was of the one inning variety so I thought he might be next in line in the desert, but it looks like Hoover and de la Rosa are setting up. This situation is still red as Rodney’s ERA/FIP/xFIP line still stands at 11.45/5.00/4.30 and if a change were to be made Bradley could still be in play but I’ve put de la Rosa back on the grid in his place. A small congrats to Rodney’s 268th career save and a bigger congrats on what probably was a very, very special day for him.

I'm officially a US citizen 🇺🇸 God bless America & Thank you for the opportunity.
Hijo de Republica Dominicana 🇩🇴 🏹 #Flecha pic.twitter.com/ZyF3xtpDH9

— Fernando Rodney (@F_Rodney56) May 2, 2017

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• Jeurys Familia has not given up many runs (1) since returning from suspension but he is not pitching too effectively either, having allowed six walks in five innings entering today. However, in the ninth this evening Familia pitched a scoreless frame giving up a hit and a double play to end the game. It wasn’t a particularly dominating performance but it’s always nice to see Familia not issue a free pass. On the season Familia now has ten strikeouts against six walks in six innings pitched. He’s very much the Mets closer but I wouldn’t release Addison Reed just yet either. This is mostly due to the fact Reed is quite good in his own right (18 strikeouts without a walk in 14 innings pitched) and also as some insurance in case Familia hits a rough patch. It goes without say that for those in Holds leagues, Reed remains a fairly elite option.

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It was another exciting weekend for bullpen activity across the major leagues. There were several late blown leads, and there could be multiple role changes this week. On Saturday, we witnessed one of the most improbable 9th-inning comebacks in recent memory. Since there was so much activity on both days this weekend, this report is broken into two sections, one for each day:

Sunday:

• Bud Norris continued to shine as the fill-in for the injured Cam Bedrosian. With the Angels leading 4-2, Norris entered in the 8th inning with two on and two out. He struck out Rougned Odor to end the inning, then came back out for the 9th with the Angels up by three. After walking Elvis Andrus to start the inning, Norris struck out the next three batters he faced ­— Joey Gallo, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mike Napoli — to notch his fifth save of the season (and of his career). In 14 innings this season, Norris has 19 strikeouts against six walks and zero home runs allowed, good for a 2.57 ERA/1.78 FIP/2.97 xFIP. The formerly mediocre starting pitcher has been lights out for the Halos, and may be worth owning in deeper leagues even after Bedrosian returns. Bedrosian hasn’t started throwing yet in his attempt to return from a groin injury that has kept him out of action since April 21.

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A couple of postponed games and blowouts but here’s a few notes on the bullpens last night…

• The Rays used five pitchers for a two hit shutout against the Orioles tonight, which was capped off by Alex Colome’s fifth save. Colome took very kindly to the bullpen full time last year posting career bests in his strikeout rate and walk rates but the strikeouts have eluded him early on this year. It’s only been 10 innings but Colome has a meager five strikeouts and a swinging strike percentage of 8.2%, well below last season’s 15.1%. This isn’t to say that Colome could fall drastically in the same way I spoke about Brandon Kintzler last night, but his .179 BABIP might be making his owners overrate his standing among the elite relievers. Colome’s a good closer and I wouldn’t be mining for his backups but his shiny ERA is a bit misleading thus far. I expect him to continue to have a solid year but I would love to see his whiff percentage/strikeouts increase over his next few outings.

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• Brad Brach had his 10th scoreless appearance tonight getting his fourth save on the year. Brach most likely will give up a run this year and he won’t run a .063 much longer but his FIP/xFIP is currently at 1.50/2.96, proving he’s pretty damn good and not just benefiting from some batted ball luck. Brach will continue to close while Britton is on the DL with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens setting up. O’Day has been more effective in his last couple of appearances but has been shakier than normal this year. He’s been a staple in the O’s pen for so long that I think Showalter will give him a pretty long leash but if he keeps struggling, Givens could leapfrog him on the totem pole. In between blaming Dustin Pedroia for not controlling his teammates, Britton can be found playing catch and should be back in Baltimore soon. Brach is certainly worth owning even if he’s not seeing the ninth inning, and so long as Britton is on the shelf he’s a near top tier option for saves.

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