Archive for Closers

Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.

To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.

We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:

1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
2. Was the ball swung on?
3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

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• Due to a right lat strain, the Seattle Mariners placed closer Hunter Strickland on the Injured List. With Strickland out the Mariners closer job is now up for grabs with manager Scott Servais saying “it could be Zac Rosscup one night, it could be Elias, it could be Gearrin or Festa or Rumbelow. Go down the list. We’re looking for somebody to get us three outs.” This certainly sounds like a committee in the making and we have adjusted the grid accordingly. Right now we have Cory Gearrin leading the list but it’s really anyone’s guess on a given night. Yesterday Rosscup started the 9th inning but was unable to finish with Nick Rumbelow coming on to get the final out and his first save.

It might be worth placing a claim on Gearrin for a couple of saves, although I wouldn’t recommend investing much. Of more interest is Anthony Swarzak who should be returning this week from a shoulder injury. Acquired from the Mets in the big Robinson Cano trade this offseason, Swarzak is both the best and most expensive option in the Mariners pen and I would bet on him floating to the top of the committee over all the other names listed.

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I remember back in mid-December when first putting together a reliever ranking that I eventually threw my hands up around the early-20s and comforting myself with the idea that things would be much clearer by the time draft season kicked into high gear.

I was wrong.

A few situations have become clearer, but what I didn’t quite anticipate was that even more teams would push toward a more open setup rather than committing to one guy. Even a team like Philadelphia that brought in David Robertson and his 137 career saves has acknowledged that he will still share some of the duties with Seranthony Dominguez.

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Yesterday, I examined some hitters with the largest plate appearance projection discrepancies using five separate sources. Today, pitchers take center stage.

I’m using the projected playing times from FanGraphs Depth charts and four other sources. Again, I won’t name them as I don’t want to debate the merits of each. My goal is to just find and evaluate different takes on the same players.

The differences aren’t nearly as drastic as the hitters, especially for the top arms. Most of the major differences involve around unknown roles and injury risks. I listed the top-200 at the end while the values for free agents and foreign signings may be off or missing. I’m going to focus on the biggest differences in some top-ranked pitchers.

Ross Stripling
Range (Max-Min): 67
Average: 112
Standard Deviation: 33

I’m not surprised one bit on Stripling. Unless the Dodgers get hit with a ton of injuries to their starters, he’s going to begin the season as a reliever or in the minors. He’s got the talent to be a top-20 starter but the number of starts he’ll get is unknown. Owners can draft him and hope his talent forces the Dodgers hand. The other issue is that he’s on the Dodgers who manipulate their roster to give pitchers scheduled days off via demotions or “injuries”. Good luck guessing right with him.

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There are only 12 closers in major league baseball. And by this, I mean there are only 12 pitchers who, right now, feel like a 100 percent lock to be the Opening Day closer for their team. Barring injury of course. I won’t make you work for the list. Here it is in an early semblance of order:

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Yesterday saw some fantasy applicable free agent signing occur which deserve a discussion.

A.J. Pollock signs with the Dodgers

I can’t quit Pollock, almost to a fault. I keep latching onto his 2015 season even though he hasn’t played over 113 games since then because of injuries. Now, he is going to a team notorious for limiting playing time thereby making his value is tough to unwrap.

He was productive during his stretch of limited playing time. Prorating his three-year stats down to 600 PA, he would have 88 Runs, 23 HR, 73 RBI, 23 SB and a .261 average. It’s tough to find a player with similar 2019 projection but here are a few. Ronald Acuna is at 28 HR, 24 SB, and .276 AVG. Braun at 25 HR, 13 SB, .265 AVG. Tim Anderson with 17 HR, 21 SB, .252 AVG. If playing a full season, he’s a top-50 hitter.

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There wasn’t a ton of moves with fantasy implications over the weekend but there was enough to lump together some. I’m still at the point that no major team breakdowns can really start with the two big bats still available. Anyways, here is a breakdown of the moves:

Phillies sign David Robertson

The 33-year-old righty immediately joins the Phillies closer discussion for the simple reason he’s projected to be the best bullpen arm. Steamer has him for a 3.22 ERA with Seranthony Dominguez next at 3.39 and previous closer Hector Neris at 3.62.

The Phillies front office would prefer Robertson to close instead of the other two to save money. The team is already on the hook for his $23 million dollar contract, so his price is set. The more Saves the pre-arbitration arms get, the higher their arbitration contracts will cost.

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Two seasons ago, I examined the chances the season’s initial closer made it the entire season without being replaced for any reason including injury. I went back and revisited the study and updated it with 2017 and 2018 results. While the initially calculated chances were low, the odds are getting even worse.

I posted to Twitter account my initial results for the last two seasons to make sure nothing was too far off. Thanks to everyone for the responses and here are the end results:
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• There aren’t many big closer changes this far into the season but it looks like the Braves are going to go with Arodys Vizcaino as the primary closer moving forward in Atlanta. With Vizcaino returning from injury and the calendar already pushing October, I figured the Braves wouldn’t make a full change like this, but Vizcaino has pitched quite well and the committee is now over. With Vizcaino in the top chair, look for A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka to be the primary set up men with Brad Brach, Dan Winkler and others behind them.

• Earlier in the year, Trevor Hildenberger looked like a sneaky future saves option in Minnesota. While he’s reached the promised land of the 9th, he hasn’t been a particularly good option and after last night’s 4 run blow up, Hildenberger now supports a 5.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and more promising 3.68 SIERA. Paul Molitor will now move to a committee with the bullpen and we expect Taylor Rogers or Trevor May to receive the next save opportunity. It’s possible Hildenberger gets another opportunity before the season is over, and we don’t know what 2019 will bring, but Rogers (2.73 ERA/2.35 FIP) and May (3.43 ERA/3.41 FIP) have been better and will likely lead the committee in the last week.

• Jace Fry is slated to start a bullpen game for the White Sox which doesn’t necessarily take him out of the committee in Chicago as he’s not likely to throw more than an inning or two, but it does take him out of a potential save today. If you have him in your daily lineup for saves, I suggest you replace him with someone else today.

• Even though Mike Scioscia is stepping down as the Angles manager, he still finds time in the last week to make some last minute bullpen changes. Ty Buttrey had blown his last two save opportunities and last night Scioscia called on Hansel Robles for the save with Blake Parker pitching in the 8th.  Buttrey could have been unavailable having pitched in two of the last three games so we won’t make a change to the grid as he’s likely given a longer leash with “closer of the future” potential for the Angels. By keeping Parker in the 8th, the Angels could also be dictating this is the order moving forward, with Buttrey just getting a day off and Robles coming in to not upset the order. However, with all of that said, if Buttrey blows a third opportunity in a row, the Angels may not look to go back to him for the 9th in the season’s last days, even if he enters 2019 as the leading saves candidate.

• Due to Brad Boxberger’s recent struggles, the Diamondbacks are going to the most hated word in fantasy baseball – a committee, with Boxberger out. While it’s possible that Boxberger can string together a solid run and get back into the mix, we are going to take him off of the grid for now. In his place I would expect a combination of Andrew Chafin, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Jake Diekman, and Brad Ziegler to see the ninth. It’s not that helpful to list off 5 names in a committee but that’s why it’s such a pain in our butts. Archie Bradley was always the presumptive favorite but he’s been terrible of late and unless the Diamondbacks want to give him a chance to prove himself in the middle of a playoff race, I’d expect them to mix and match with the other guys. For the first stab I’m putting Hirano, Diekman and Chafin on the list. Hirano is a righty so I’m guessing he could see more than the rest of the committee but with multiple lefty options in Diekman and Chafin it’s possible they see more saves, along with Brad Ziegler who just won’t go away!

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