Archive for Closers

• After blowing the save against the Yankees on Friday, Jose Alvarado came back yesterday to get his 5th save of the year. Emilio Pagan pitched in the 8th and 9th getting 5 strikeouts, Hunter Wood pitched in the 10th and  Alvarado finished the 11th for the save. Diego Castillo had pitched in three of the last four games so he wasn’t used and although Alvarado got the save yesterday we are still going to have Castillo atop the committee. With that said, as has been the case all year, Castillo and Alvarado should share the save duties throughout the year and if we flip the order tomorrow I wouldn’t be too surprised. Pagan has taken a back seat in terms of saves of late but it’s worth noting after last night’s performance that he has only allowed one run in 14.2 innings pitched and has an insane 35.9% K-BB%. He shouldn’t be relied upon for more than a couple of random saves but he’s worth rostering nonetheless for ratios and strikeouts.

• Hansel Robles has become the go to man for the 9th inning in Anaheim but it was Ty Buttrey who got the save last night, getting the final 5 outs in the process. Although Buttrey received the save, I’m not quite ready to make this a committee again since Robles has really received the vast majority of save chance of late. Robles has the velocity and strikeouts one would want in a closer but Buttrey has been the better pitcher and both should definitely be owned in a majority of leagues. On the year Buttrey has thrown 23.2 innings with only two runs allowed and is supporting a 1.25/2.74/2.37 FIP/xFIP/SIERA with a 13.4% SwStr%. The Angels have used him for more multi-inning appearances with Robles largely throwing in the 9th, I suspect that will continue with Robles still being the nominal closer but Buttrey snagging the occasional save.

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• Blake Parker was used to get the last out of the 8th inning last night with Trevor Hildenberger coming on for the the 9th. However, after giving up three runs Mike Morin came in for the final two outs to get his first save of the year. While the committee is still strong in Minnesota, Mike Morin isn’t a part of it. Parker is still in the lead with Taylor Rogers and Trevor May behind him. Every time the Twins get a save I basically repeat the previous line, but that’s how it will go until something changes!

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• Blake Treinen allowed three hits and blew his second save of the year but only allowed one earned run, struck out a pair, and received the win when the A’s scored off of A.J. Cole in the 9th inning. Treinen has previously been dealing with some elbow issues and his velo was a seasonal low of 96.83 mph during his appearance on April 28th but since then he’s been at his normal 98+. Treinen was never going to duplicate last year’s 0.78 ERA across 80.1 innings pitched but it looks as though the elbow flare up wasn’t a major red flag and he should remain a top closer moving forward.

• Jacob deGrom threw seven innings and the Mets went Seth Lugo -> Edwin Diaz for the 8th and 9th innings, just like the grid below. The Mets have insisted that Diaz will only go one inning per appearance which might help kepe him healthier all year but hurts his value a tad since his innings and raw totals won’t be the same as years past. With all that said, Diaz still might be the best closer in the fantasy game.

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• As Al mentioned yesterday, the Rangers were sticking with a committee of Chris Marin and Shawn Kelley as Leclerc continues to work on his craft. However, the Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin closing tandem is now over for the moment, with Kelley hitting the IL with an infection. This likely helps explain why Chris Martin was used for the previous save as well but with Kelley out for the time being the committee is closed with Martin owning the 9th. The other options in the Rangers bullpen aren’t too compelling so Jose Leclerc will remain on the grid and I have added Airel Jurado to the mix behind him as he has been effective so far in his six appearances maintaining a 0.00 ERA and a compelling 21.4% K-BB%. As far as Leclerc goes, he was used last night and was completely wild, walking three batters without finishing the 9th inning. It wasn’t a save situation but still, after a couple of decent appearances it wasn’t a great sign to see Leclerc struggle again. The Rangers want Leclerc to take back the reins but on the year he has a 181.% BB% and a career low 8.3% SwStr%. His velocity is right where he always is but the whiffs are missing and so is his control. It might not take too many solid appearances for Leclerc to get back into the closer’s chair, but he’s not close at the moment.

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• Shawn Kelley received the first save opportunity since Leclerc was removed from closer, and he it was a success with Kelley throwing a scorless inning for his 2nd save of the year. Chris Martin pitched a scoreless 8th and our old friend Leclerc was used in the 7th and looked pretty effective, stirking out a pair in a perfect inning. One successful inning won’t put Leclerc back as the closer but the fact he’s still pitching in higher leverage innings and in the very short term, is looking better, bodes well for him taking back the 9th at some point. In the meantime, the Rangers are still saying this is a committee but I would continue to bet on Kelley as the main provider of saves while Leclerc works his way back. Read the rest of this entry »

• As Al mentioned last night Jose Leclerc is getting a breather from the closer’s role and we expect Shawn Kelley and Chris Martin to fill in for saves as Leclerc is used in lower leverage situations. I have changed the grid to include Kelley and Martin in a committee with Kelley ahead at the moment although we will have to wait for the next save chance to see which direction the Rangers go. Shawn Kelley has been better this year and has saved games in the past so that’s why he’s ahead for the time being. The Rangers signed Leclerc to an extension this offseason and they gave him a long leash through his struggles this year, so they’re not going to give up on him but until he finds his rhythm again, he won’t be seeing saves.

• Ty Buttrey got his first save with the Angels this year, pitching a scoreless two innings allowing two hits and striking out a pair as well. Cam Bedrosian threw a scoreless 7th inning for his third hold of the year and committee chair Hansel Robles wasn’t used. Buttrey and Robles will continue to see saves with Cody Allen out and even when he returns as they are definitively better pitchers. However, guessing who gets more saves here is a little tough. Although Robles has been great in his own right this year, Buttrey is the best option but as we have seen in Boston with Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier, sometimes it’s the second best option that gets the saves. Both are obviously worth owning and only time will tell if this stays as a committee for a while or if it will go in a single direction.

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UPDATE: Right after publishing, Arodys Vizcaino was placed on the IL with shoulder information. Vizcaino’s shoulder issues were documented throughout the early going of the season but he seemed to be OK. Clearly that’s not necessarily the case with Vizcaino now on the IL. We don’t know how long Vizcaino will be on the shelf for, whether it’s rest or something larger. In his place, A.J. Minter is the clear first option with Chad Sobotka, Jesse Biddle, Wes Parsons and really everyone else in the back of the Braves pen behind them.

• After using Ian Kennedy to preserve the win on Friday the Royals turned to Wily Perlata in the 9th last night for the save, his first of the year. Ian Kennedy threw a perfect 8th inning with two strikeouts setting up Peralta and this remains a no doubt committee. It’s hard to tell who the favored option is on any given day with Brad Boxberger in the mix as along with Jake Diekman as a lefty also throwing high leverage innings. Ian Kennedy was used in the 6th and 7th innings on 4/10  but since then he’s been used in the 9th and 8th innings in back-to-back appearances. Brad Boxberger has the most traditional closer stuff and background but he’s allowed three runs in his last two appearances, and overall hasn’t been particularly effective. We still have him atop the grid given his background but he’s code red with Kennedy and Peralta right behind. Kennedy’s ability to be used for longer outings might preclude him from being a typical late inning option but he’s been the best reliever in their pen so far and at some point the cream will rise to the top, or the closer role in this case.

• When it feels like everyone is using a committee, it can be nice to see one situation possibly be breaking free, which brings us to Minnesota. Blake Parker got his third save in the 9th, with Taylor Rogers setting him up in the 8th. Earlier this season it seemed like Rogers was in the middle of a committee but he hasn’t seen a save opportunity since the start of the year and Parker might be cementing himself as the main guy to own here, at least for now. I can’t fully shed the committee label yet, since Parker’s last appearance was in the 7th and 8th innings. Once the Twins string a few save opportunities in a row we should have a better idea if the committee is still in play. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Parker has a poor 3/3 K/BB in his five innings this year, where one poor appearance can throw him behind Rogers and Trevor May in the pecking order. For now I would bet on Parker receiving the next saves but this situation could change fairly rapidly even as it seems like it’s calcifying.

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“The key to pitching is to have the ability to throw a strike when they’re taking and throw a ball when the hitter is swinging.” – Greg Maddux

Last week, I introduced a pitcher metric based on the six possible plate discipline outcomes. You can find the definitions and indexes in the wPDI introduction article, found here.

This week, I would like to provide you with an alternative weighting of the indexes. It will parallel the famous quote by Hall of Fame pitcher, Greg Maddux. He preached that the key to pitching is to throw a strike when the batter isn’t going to swing, and to throw a ball when the batter will [swing].

With the wPDI outcome framework in place, we can now properly quantify Greg Maddux’s quote.

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Apologies for a brief and belated Bullpen Report but let’s jump right into Saturday’s games…

• Taylor Rogers pitched in the 8th inning last night with the top of the Phillies lineup up, and no real platoon split to speak of. Although he wasn’t particularly sharp he threw a scoreless inning handing it off to Parker in the 9th. The Twins put the game out of a saves reach in the top half of the inning so there was no save situation for Parker. While this situation was being used as a fairly strict platoon it looks like Rogers 8th and Parker in the 9th might be calcifying somewhat. I’ll keep the committee tag for now but Parker is affirming himself ahead for now.

• No save situation for the Royals last night but that was due to the pen blowing the lead before the 9th. Wily Peralta pitched in the 7th to clean up Kevin McCarthy’s mess but he wasn’t particularly effective himself and now carries a 15.00 ERA with only two strikeouts and four walks in three innings pitched this year. Brad Boxberger and Jake Diekman might be ahead of him in the committee at this point. Additionally, although Ian Kennedy has not been special this year, just exhibiting competence might be enough to run with this job at some point. I would bet on Kennedy’s end of season save total over the others in the Royals pen but I also don’t envision that number being particularly high or with ratios that help a team.

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• Although Jose Alvarado might have a 99 mph screwball he’s not quite the full time closer on the Rays. Last night Alvarado came in 8th inning in a tie game, striking out the side ending with lefty Charlie Blackmon. In the 9th, Diego Castillo came on to face David Dahl, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story. This wasn’t quite an obvious lefty/righty situation but Castillo was in there to face the tough right handed hitters on the Rockies. In my first Bullpen Report I suggested that Alvarado was inching towards being the main closer but that certainly doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. Both Alvarado and Castillo are worth owning, almost regardless of if they are receiving saves, but this is a committee situation for the time being.

• Whether or not David Robertson would be used as a traditional closer to reign in Gabe Kapler or not, the Phillies expected better results than he’s providing right now. Robertson entered the game in the 9th with the game tied and proceeded to go single, walk, walk before walking in the winning run. In three appearances this year Robertson has five walks with only one strikeout. It’s definitely still early and there are no velocity concerns but Seranthony Dominguez, who wasn’t effective either blowing the lead in the 8th, could see some more save situations than expected if Robertson doesn’t get on track soon.

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