Archive for Arizona Fall League

Jon Gray.  Alex Bregman.  Michael Fulmer.  Edwin Diaz.  Yoan Moncada.  Willson Contreras.  Josh Bell.  Blake Snell.

The young players listed above are hot commodities right now in keeper leagues like Ottoneu. These players are the building blocks of hope for many eager fantasy owners looking to turn the corner from rebuilding to contention over the next season or two.  Each of these players were also well outside the top 50 prospects listed in Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 prospect ranking posted almost oneyear ago.

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One of my favorite parts about coming out to Phoenix for the Arizona Fall League and Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forum is getting to do my first draft of the year. I’ve already done mocks, but this is my first draft that actually gets played out. It’s a 50-round NFBC Draft & Hold league. For those unfamiliar with the format, it’s just as the name says, you draft and hold these 50 guys for the entire season. There are no waiver periods at any point. We always do the first 23 rounds out here and then complete the final 27 online starting in January. The D&H format alone is really cool, but the added wrinkle of a split draft makes this one of my most unique drafts every season.

I posted the results from last year’s iteration of this draft – well the first 23 rounds, at least. As amazing* as my first 23 went, I only finished 9th out of 15. I just didn’t uncover too many gems in those other 27 rounds to cover my misses in the first 23. Nomar Mazara, Sean Manaea, and Vince Velasquez were my only substantial hits from the second half of that draft. Perhaps unsurprisingly, pitching carried my team. I had a 28.5/45.5 hit/pitch point split. The pitching was 6th-best, but only three teams had worse hitting than mine. But enough of that team. Time for a new one!

*sarcasm… obviously

Initially, I didn’t think I was going to be able to participate this year. The drafts were scheduled for Friday night, but Mother Nature had other plans for me. We normally go to a game and have a welcome reception on Thursday night of this event, but it was rained out. Yes, it was rained out in Arizona. To fill the time, they decided to host a draft Thursday night which allowed yours truly to play after all! Today, we’ll take a look at my first five rounds. I’ll do another piece covering the rest of my 23 as well as identify where some intriguing players went throughout the draft.

The NFBC does something called Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft slotting so when they pick the names out of the hat, you then get to pick what slot you want out of the ones left. I’ve been doing this draft here since 2012 and never picked early. My highest pick has been 8th and I’ve regularly picked 14th or 15th. This year I was hoping to have my name pulled early so I could get a high pick.

And it actually happened!!

I was third or fourth of the hat and wound up with the second pick. Interestingly, my first two picks this year are the same two I got at pick 15 a year ago. Let’s take a look:

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The end of the MLB season is one of the worst parts of the year. I annually lessen the pain of this by journeying out to First Pitch Arizona for my last fill of baseball before long, stupid winter. Not only are we watching baseball, but it’s centered around a fantasy baseball conference with some of the best people in the industry… and me. I’m leaving Thursday morning so I’ll be there in time for one of the afternoon games which means with the three attendee games already on the docket, I’ll see a total of four regular games in addition to the Fall Stars Game on Saturday night.

My favorite aspect of the Fall League is learning about guys I’m not too familiar with just yet. Don’t get me wrong, it’s awesome seeing the Mike Trouts and Bryce Harpers of the prospect world. But for someone who doesn’t dedicate a ton of time to prospects (especially lower level ones), it’s a great opportunity to see some of the next level guys in living color. Keep in mind that any time I say I “discovered” someone at the AFL whether on the pod or in a piece, I mean for myself, not that I was on this guy ahead of everyone else.

For example, Baseball Prospectus ranked Nolan Arenado 20th ahead of the 2011 season, but I knew next-to-nothing about the 20-year old going into his High-A season. Watching obliterate the Fall League later that year put him on my radar. He was so good. I didn’t see a single bad at-bat from him in the handful of games, even the outs. Better examples would be Brian Dozier and Mookie Betts.

Neither were on prospect lists in advance of their AFL season so seeing them excel actually gave me a jump in my fantasy leagues. Don’t get me wrong, not everyone I fall for out there winds up being a stud. I loved what I saw out of Chris Heisey, Grant Desme, and Dustin Ackley to name a few. Two are fourth outfielders and the other – Desme – quit baseball to become a priest. You win some, you lose some.

One guaranteed win is watching baseball in Arizona in early November when most of the country is whipping out their jackets. (I mean, I take my jacket to Arizona because that shiz gets really cold at night! But during the day it’s sunny and awesome.)

I’ve got a shortlist of guys I’m looking forward to seeing out there this week and I should get a chance to see them all, even if it’s only at the Fall Stars game:

Gleyber Torres – NYY – SS

The key piece of the Aroldis Chapman is lighting up the league so far with a 1.077 OPS in 32 AB, good for 4th in the league. Before we go any further, I’ll note that the AFL is a hitting league due to not only the environment and ballparks, but also the talent distribution. There are often many more top hitting prospects than pitching ones. Pitchers have usually bumped up against the inning caps by season’s end so we don’t always get the cream of the crop.

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Cardinals Pitcher Call-Ups: Reyes and Weaver

The Cardinals called up Alex Reyes and he made his first major league appearance for the Cardinals bullpen last light. Reyes is a talent pitcher and here is some comparable pitchers with similar grades to his 2016 Baseball America prospect grade.

The list is dominated by hard throwers with good curve balls which describes Reyes.

Moving onto his Triple-A production this year, the 21-year-old has been a strikeout machine with 12.8 K/9, but he has some issues with walks (4.4 BB/9). Last night he averaged 99 mph with his fastball and was 98 mph in the Arizona Fall League last year. Besides the fastball, he has an above average curve ball. He is a talented pitcher and should be a top 20 pitcher for years to come if his change up is serviceable.

But to put it simply, all the talent doesn’t really matter this season. Reyes will not be useful in most leagues since he will be relegated to the bullpen and is currently not in line for Saves. In redraft leagues, let others fight over him. In keeper leagues, understand his value is limited this season. Now, if I was a non-contender in a keeper league, I would look to see if one of the contenders has Reyes and would try to pick him up for a piece which could help them win a championship.

Luke Weaver is the pitcher owners should be targeting this season instead of Reyes. To start with, here are some comparables for Weaver using MLB.com’s 2016 grades.

The list of pitchers doesn’t bring a ton of excitement to Weaver’s debut on Saturday. The key when looking at these grades is if he can get his curve or slider to be his third league-average pitch. Weaver has been extremely productive in Double-A posting a 1.40 ERA and 10.4 K/9, but a pitcher can dominate the minors with just two pitches. If viewing his start on Saturday, watch to see how his curve and slider work. If he can’t get them going, he may struggle the second or third time through the order.

As for fantasy, I think he is worth a stash in all leagues to see how he performs. I think he could be in the Cardinals’ rotation until the season end because he has only thrown 83 innings this year after throwing 124 IP last year so workload may not be an issue.

Dylan Bundy: Quick Look

I have been intrigued on how Dylan Bundy looks since moving to the Orioles rotation in mid-July. With his injuries and starting the season in the bullpen, I wanted to get an idea of what to expect from him as a starter. For the game, I picked his last start on August 7. Here are my thoughts:

• His fastball was at 92-97 mph with sink at the lower velocities. He had good command of this pitch and seemed to constantly hit is spots with it. This will help him get ahead of hitters who are looking for a pitch in the middle of the plate. His fastball seems to have a couple different movements and I would not be surprised if he has a four-seam fastball and a slower two-seamer.
• His split-change was at 85-87 mph also with plus late sink. This pitch was the best pitch he threw.
• His final pitch is a classic 12-6 curve at 77-80 mph which he used as a chase pitch for called strikes.
• As with any pitcher, when he hung the curve or change, they got crushed.
• If he throws like he did during this game next year, he is going to be a strikeout machine.

For next season, I like the possible production from him and he could be a top-20 to 40 pitcher …. if he stays healthy which is a huge if. I think he will be more valuable in shallow leagues where the replacement level is higher. In deeper leagues, he may end up a wasted pick if he goes back on the DL again for the season. Right now I would put a 140 IP, 9 K/9, and a 3.50 ERA on him for a 2017 projection.

T.J. House: Back in the majors

Going into last season, I had a huge crush on T.J. House after he put up some great numbers at the end of 2014. I bragged him up over the offseason and picked him up where ever I could. Right out of the gate of the 2015 season, House stunk it up and ended up the DL with an injury.

The biggest key I took away from my House love affair, for non-prospect who break out, any kink in their armor will probably make them unplayable. In House’s case, his velocity lost 2 mph from the previous season. There was no way he could keep up his 2014 production with a batting-practice fastball.

His return to the majors is only to the Indians bullpen and his fastball, which he should throw harder from the bullpen, only sits at 90 mph. He is unplayable in all leagues right now, but I will always remember the bond we shared that one offseason.

I figured it was time.

I used strikeouts minus walks for the first sort because that’s been shown to be the best in-season predictor. I then eyeballed fastball velocity and pitching mix. There are a few places where I went with upside because I saw these as mixed league rankings. If you’re in a deeper league, look past the prospects and instead consider the veterans that are pitching now.

Feel free to argue a guy up or down. I may make the move!

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I’ve recently completed two deep Ottoneu minor league drafts and am reminded just how difficult successful “prospecting” can be.  Regardless of how informed you may feel heading into an MiLB draft, you’re often left selecting players based upon small sample sizes, second hand reports, maybe a few brief videos and, as much as we want to deny it, a bias towards “scouting the stat lines”.  At the end of the day you’re making a decision using limited information that could have serious long term consequences for your dynasty team.

Prospecting is actually a lot like another critical business skill: hiring good employees.  The inputs might be a little different (scouting reports might be job references, batting practice videos might be one hour interviews, and stats, however limited, might be the resume sitting on your desk), but the challenge is the same: make an important, timely decision based on limited information, first impressions, and gut feel.

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Episode 288

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer, Eno Sarris, and Jason Collette are together in Phoenix for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forums and Arizona Fall League action! The trio discusses some of the goings-on from the conference including whether or not Justin Verlander and Kyle Hendricks are legit from their ’15 performance. They also discuss some of the players they’ve seen and talked to at AFL including Clint Frazier, Austin Meadows, and Alex Blandino.

Oh, and Paul totally embarrassed himself in his first draft of 2016… and it wasn’t with his picks for once. By the way, here are the first 23 rounds of that NFBC 50 round draft & hold. It’s Kentucky Derby Style slot picking so once your name is drawn from the hat, you can pick your spot. I picked 15 once 1-2-3 were gone (a couple others were, too, I was 6th or 7th out of the hat). I’ll be writing more about this draft in the coming week or so, but here are the pics if you wanna see where someone was (or wasn’t) drafted:

I’m team 15 (click to see clearer)

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Episode 286

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris breakdown the World Series and get Eno’s prediction. Who are the key players on each side? How does KC’s contact-heavy game play vs. NYM’s power pitching-poor defense mix? Would you rather have the KC SPs or NYM RPs? And more. Then they discuss the AFL, going on now in Arizona, and highlight some guys they’re looking forward to seeing in two weeks including: Gary Sanchez, Alex Blandino, Dylan Bundy, A.J. Reed, and more.

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