2017 Top 50 Fantasy Prospects: First Look
Jon Gray. Alex Bregman. Michael Fulmer. Edwin Diaz. Yoan Moncada. Willson Contreras. Josh Bell. Blake Snell.
The young players listed above are hot commodities right now in keeper leagues like Ottoneu. These players are the building blocks of hope for many eager fantasy owners looking to turn the corner from rebuilding to contention over the next season or two. Each of these players were also well outside the top 50 prospects listed in Chris Mitchell’s KATOH Top 100 prospect ranking posted almost oneyear ago.
I really enjoy Chris’ method and his KATOH work is excellent, so the point here is only that prospecting is a fluid business. Projecting quick MLB success from an early 20-something is a difficult task no matter how much information we have. Scouting perceptions can change nearly as often as the weather, so it’s a good idea to take the temperature often. Today I’ll give you a first look at 2017 prospect rankings in the context of fantasy using my Prospect Scorecard method I introduced last season.
A few quick notes before we begin:
- Since “Cost” is league-dependent (salary, keeper round, etc.), I’ve ignored it here for simplicity by keeping it constant for every prospect listed. Feel free to use the Scorecard to make changes that reflect true player costs for your league.
- These rankings below are intended to represent the 50 most valuable prospects for fantasy leagues (depending on format).
- It’s quite possible I’m missing an obvious player that should be ranked, so let me know in the comments. We can discuss the specific rationale for player rankings in the comments, too.
- For a lot more prospect resources, check out the Ottoneu community.
Here are the Top 50 prospects for the linear-weights-based FanGraphs Points scoring format (a good proxy for those in OBP leagues):
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2017 Top 50 Fantasy Prospects – FGPTS
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | POS | Scouting | Scoring | Impact | Hype | Cost | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | BOS | 22 | OF | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 2 | Alex Reyes | STL | 22 | SP | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Yoan Moncada | CHW | 21 | 3B | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 19.5 |
| 4 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | 23 | SS | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 18.0 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 23 | SP | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 22 | SP | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 7 | Josh Bell | PIT | 24 | 1B | 3.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 8 | Austin Meadows | PIT | 21 | OF | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 9 | Brendan Rodgers | COL | 20 | SS | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 10 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | 20 | SS | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 11 | J.P. Crawford | PHI | 22 | SS | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 12 | Victor Robles | WAS | 19 | OF | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
| 13 | Willy Adames | TB | 21 | SS | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
| 14 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 21 | 1B | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 15 | Amed Rosario | NYM | 21 | SS | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 16 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 20 | 3B | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 17 | Clint Frazier | NYY | 22 | OF | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 18 | Eloy Jimenez | CHC | 20 | OF | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 19 | Francis Martes | HOU | 21 | SP | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 20 | Franklin Barreto | OAK | 21 | SS | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 21 | Ian Happ | CHC | 22 | 2B | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 22 | Yuliesky Gurriel | HOU | 32 | 3B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 23 | Brent Honeywell | TB | 22 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 24 | Lewis Brinson | MIL | 22 | OF | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 25 | Manuel Margot | SDP | 22 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 26 | Jose De Leon | LAD | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 27 | Michael Kopech | CHW | 20 | SP | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 28 | Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 29 | Francelis Montas | OAK | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 30 | Yadier Alvarez | LAD | 21 | SP | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 31 | Bradley Zimmer | CLE | 24 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 32 | Nick Senzel | CIN | 21 | 3B | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 33 | Hunter Renfroe | SDP | 25 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 34 | Alex Verdugo | LAD | 20 | OF | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 35 | Isan Diaz | MIL | 20 | 2B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 36 | Willie Calhoun | LAD | 22 | 2B | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 37 | Christin Stewart | DET | 23 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 38 | Joe Jimenez | DET | 22 | RP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 39 | Erick Fedde | WAS | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 40 | Kyle Lewis | SEA | 21 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 41 | A.J. Reed | HOU | 23 | 1B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 42 | Cody Reed | CIN | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 43 | Jake Bauers | TB | 21 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 44 | Anderson Espinoza | SDP | 19 | SP | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 45 | Aaron Judge | NYY | 24 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 46 | Tyler O’Neill | SEA | 21 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 47 | Luke Weaver | STL | 23 | SP | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 48 | Corey Ray | MIL | 22 | OF | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 49 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 50 | Josh Hader | MIL | 22 | SP | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
Ages shown are as of Opening Day 2017.
Here are the Top 50 prospects for Ottoneu Old School, a 5 x 5 scoring format:
2017 Top 50 Fantasy Prospects – Old School
| Rank | Player | Team | Age | POS | Scouting | Scoring | Impact | Hype | Cost | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | BOS | 22 | OF | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 2 | Alex Reyes | STL | 22 | SP | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 |
| 3 | Yoan Moncada | CHW | 21 | 3B | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 20.5 |
| 4 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | 23 | SS | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 18.5 |
| 5 | Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 23 | SP | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 18.0 |
| 6 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 22 | SP | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 7 | Victor Robles | WAS | 19 | OF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 8 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | 20 | SS | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 17.5 |
| 9 | Josh Bell | PIT | 24 | 1B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 10 | Austin Meadows | PIT | 21 | OF | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 11 | Brendan Rodgers | COL | 20 | SS | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 12 | J.P. Crawford | PHI | 22 | SS | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 13 | Lewis Brinson | MIL | 22 | OF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 14 | Willy Adames | TB | 21 | SS | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
| 15 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 21 | 1B | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
| 16 | Amed Rosario | NYM | 21 | SS | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 |
| 17 | Clint Frazier | NYY | 22 | OF | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 18 | Eloy Jimenez | CHC | 20 | OF | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 19 | Franklin Barreto | OAK | 21 | SS | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 20 | Manuel Margot | SDP | 22 | OF | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 21 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 20 | 3B | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 22 | Francis Martes | HOU | 21 | SP | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 23 | Jose De Leon | LAD | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 24 | Michael Kopech | CHW | 20 | SP | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 25 | Yuliesky Gurriel | HOU | 32 | 3B | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.5 |
| 26 | Ian Happ | CHC | 22 | 2B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 27 | Brent Honeywell | TB | 22 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 28 | Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 29 | Yadier Alvarez | LAD | 21 | SP | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 30 | Francelis Montas | OAK | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 31 | Bradley Zimmer | CLE | 24 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 32 | Christin Stewart | DET | 23 | OF | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.5 |
| 33 | Nick Senzel | CIN | 21 | 3B | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 34 | Alex Verdugo | LAD | 20 | OF | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 35 | Isan Diaz | MIL | 20 | 2B | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 36 | Kyle Lewis | SEA | 21 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 37 | Nick Williams | PHI | 23 | OF | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 38 | Hunter Renfroe | SDP | 25 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 |
| 39 | Erick Fedde | WAS | 24 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 40 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | 20 | 2B | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 41 | Cody Reed | CIN | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 42 | Anderson Espinoza | SDP | 19 | SP | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 43 | Corey Ray | MIL | 22 | OF | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 44 | A.J. Reed | HOU | 23 | 1B | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 45 | Aaron Judge | NYY | 24 | OF | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 46 | Sean Newcomb | ATL | 23 | SP | 3.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 47 | Orlando Arcia | MIL | 22 | SS | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.5 |
| 48 | Joe Jimenez | DET | 22 | RP | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
| 49 | Jacoby Jones | DET | 24 | OF | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
| 50 | Tyler O’Neill | SEA | 21 | OF | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
Ages shown are as of Opening Day 2017.
For additional Ottoneu prospect resources:
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
Groome and Maitan are omitted because of lack of stats or lack of proximity?
Players like Groome, Marian, Vlad, Jr., received solid Scouting scores but Impact and Hype scores were very low for now which pulled them well out of the top 50. Proximity influences the Impact score heavily, but it’s not the only factor.
Francelis Montas plays for Oakland. Not a big deal, just letting you know.
guess they just got used to typing white sox after a while. understandable in the current climate
This is corrected, thanks for catching this.
Personally, I am higher on Margot. Possible 40 SB. Also really high on Jharel Cotton who hasn’t lost his prospect status.
In FGpts, too, or just old school?
Just curious, what do you like about Cotton specifically? Besides the changeup I guess
cotton has come up with a cutter which also seemed to be playing well in his MLB time
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-dialogue-on-the-urgent-matter-of-jharel-cottons-cutter/
(that’s a cistulli article so you have to wade through some extra words but the gist of it is, cutter)
early in the year in AAA for the dodgers cotton was moved to the pen for a while and it went really badly but it forced him to work on his other pitches besides the changeup which seemed to carry over into making him a better starter when he was shifted back
http://newsok.com/article/5501877
Cotton just missed my Top 50 and Steamer seems optimistic for 2016, so he’s definitely a name to watch. As with most prospects, his ability to control the HR in FGPTS will be a major factor in his value; early sample kind of suggests he’s a fly ball guy (same in AAA).
It’s all of breakers performing great: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=13654&position=P#platediscipline
Nearly 20% swinging strike% on all three. The labeled slider may be his cutter.
Margot definitely gets a bump in Roto, and a good case could be made to go higher with his speed, hit tool, and his readiness to contribute in 2017.
haniger, jharel cotton and bruce maxwell III are gonna catch this list nappin’ imo
What’re your thoughts on Bellinger’s timeline with Gonzalez still under contract? He seems like a great stash in an OBP keeper.
Bellinger could see time in the 2nd half this year, but keep an eye on how much he plays OF in the minors in the first half. He should be playable in the OF, and they may need him there (which could get him to LAD and around AGon). I would not be surprised to see Bellinger traded before the start of the season, however.
FWIW, the Senzel owners in my league seem to be trying to sell at an even higher price than what I acquired Meadows or Eloy for. Not that they’re correctly valuing him, but maybe the hype on him should be higher?
Senzel was scooped up aggressively in many leagues because of his high pick, but he’s more of a solid player/hitter (maybe 20 HR/20 SB) rather than a star. That can still be plenty valuable, but I wouldn’t mind selling right now either if I owned him for > $5 in Ottoneu.
Like the Verdugo ranking, and just my opinion, but I would go higher personally. Such a well rounded prospect.
Verdugo is polarizing for me personally because I feel like the scouting reports on his power grades have fluctuated quite a bit in the last year or so. If he maximizes the 60 Hit, 50 Power tools that Eric gave him, he’s going to be very good and very valuable as an OF.
Agreed. One thing that I think has contributed to the somewhat slow pick up by the writers: he was tagged as a guy with a short swing that could poke the ball to all fields. Great. But not too special. However, his swing has evolved over the past two seasons. He’s still ultra quick, but it’s certainly not a slappy approach. He has a long and balanced swing now. At 20, he’s just tapping into his power, and to go with his excellent eye and good contact ability (not to mention that arm), I’m pretty high on him.
Here’s some video for the masses to get a better look at that new swing (a HR from May):
http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=656493083
Interesting Meadows dropped from #5 to 8/10 in the update. If Cutch is traded does he push back towards top 5 based on opportunity?
Meadows was red hot in August (the last time I did these rankings), but I think it’s very possible to push him up a few spots even now, though I’d still have him below Swanson. That said, I’m not sure Meadows is ready to step in and be a productive fantasy player in early 2017, though the McCutchen trade rumors may suggest PIT feels differently. I think he’s slightly more valuable in FGPTS than Roto; he reminds me a bit of Nick Markakis (the good years).
**whoops – placed this in the wrong thread. See ^^^
Agreed. One thing that I think has contributed to the somewhat slow pick up by the writers: he was tagged as a guy with a short swing that could poke the ball to all fields. Great. But not too special. However, his swing has evolved over the past two seasons. He’s still ultra quick, but it’s certainly not a slappy approach. He has a long and balanced swing now. At 20, he’s just tapping into his power, and to go with his excellent eye and good contact ability (not to mention that arm), I’m pretty high on him.
Has Albies fallen so far?
Albies just missed the FGPTS ranking; snuck in at 40 for 5 x 5. With limited power he’s one of those guys that has to show me he’s capable of doing more than just speed before I believe. Jose Peraza and Albies are forever linked in my mind…
No moniak? What is the reasoning on that?
For one, Moniak is several years away, reducing his Impact and Hype here. But even if he was closer, he seems like the standard “better baseball than fantasy” player to me, with average tools across the board. I think he’s a better fit in Roto leagues, and had I ranked 100 here, he probably would fall in the 80’s for me.
Moniak was not some generational 1.1. There is a reply earlier addressing Groome, Maitan, Vlad Jr – there is nothing that separates Moniak from that group despite what his draft status might suggest.
Finally some love for Joe Jimenez. He doesn’t even crack Detroit’s 10 top prospect list according to Baseball America.
Hard to rank relievers but the reality is they can be very very valuable if given the right role early on. Jimenez could be the Edwin Diaz of 2017. Or he could just turn out to be Bruce Rondon 2.0. Wide range of outcomes.
Not sure if Jeff Hoffman is eligible but roughly where would he rank?
I had Hoffman around 60 or so. Hard to rank him because I watched several rough starts from him last year, but if he’s on I I think he could be what Jon Gray was this year, which is pretty solid.
Jesse Winker? particularly in OBP leagues, but also if he manages to get the game power up to league average or better, path to a starting spot, maybe even top of the order before Votto… I see him as a potential all around contributor with a monster OBP and high floor. What am I missing?
I had Winker in the mid 60’s. I don’t think there’s any recent evidence that he can get the game power up, so hard to count on it now. Brandon Nimmo had a .964 OPS in AAA last year and he hasn’t really changed the perception of his game, has he? I see Nimmo and Winker similar at this point, with the fantasy edge to Winker simply because of park. But it’s a small edge.
Respectfully, I disagree. While Nimmo consistently posted sub .100 ISOs throughout the minors, while also paired with higher K rates and lower BABiPs, with his power “breakout” coming in 2 years at Las Vegas. Winker has been consistently in the .150-.220 range in more pitcher friendly leagues to go with elevated BABiPs that suggest a high LD%. In addition, Nimmo is a pretty good player in his own right. These guys contrast starkly with some of the OFs who do make the list, particularly Ray and Williams (to cherry pick a bit). While Ray has significantly less time as a pro, he is still a 22 y/o in High A ball who hasn’t really shown anything. And while Williams theoretically has speed upside over Winker, he is super raw and has never shown an ability to get on base (a key stat that speaks to an ability to simply continue to play in the majors). That being said, I very much respect your analysis and thank you for your work. I’m sure you have access to information (particularly regarding scouting) that I simply don’t have.
Now that I’m already typing my overlong response, I have one more to run by you.
What about Matt Olson? While he has been incredibly inconsistent in ways throughout his minor league career and is cursed with a home park in Oakland, he is also super close to the majors (possibly even starting the year with the MLB club), looks like he may have positional versatility which could help him keep playing time. The power looks like it could be real even if he isn’t able/willing to change his approach to become more aggressive in the count. Chances are he’s at least a high OBP with average or better power. Is it simply his 1B eligibility that holds him down? or were you considering him as a 1B/OF?
Appreciate the Winker breakdown and defense. Good debate (that’s what I was hoping for in the comments for these rankings). We should be able to see what Winker looks like in Cincy pretty soon.
As for Olson, he’s intriguing in FGPTS, and OAK has nothing to lose by plugging him in to see what they have. He’s OF eligible in Ottoneu, so that pushes his chances of value quite a bit higher than 1B alone. I doubt anyone really is in on Olson in most leagues, so he could probably be acquired or drafted cheaply, so he’s definitely a guy worth a $1 flyer to see if he can hit while getting on base. The power is real; just have to see if he can hit. Olson breakdown here.
Makes sense RE: Olson. Thanks for the response. Keep up the great work.
if you want to argue that ray shouldn’t be ranked here because he was just drafted and we can’t tell how good he is yet, fine, that’s a fair argument, but to phrase it in terms of “he’s a 22-year-old in high A” seems pretty pedantic considering that, like, this was his draft year. it’s not like he’s been making worryingly slow progress or something, he’s been in pro ball for like 2 months
plus it isn’t even accurate anyway; last year in high-A was his age 21 season, and you don’t know where he’s going to be assigned in the spring
Not entirely unfair. I agree my response was worded a bit aggressively (I had just finished writing a brief and was in a litigious state of mind). The general point, however, was that Ray seems to profile as 80% of Winker across basically all skill sets, he’s slightly smaller, only a year younger but 3 years further from the majors, and didn’t show the kind of statistical dominance that Winker did in the low minors (as a younger man). In addition, I suppose I’ll grant you that I should have said 21 y/o in high A ball, but given the lack of success and injury, I don’t think its too far out on a limb to suggest that he will also be a 22 y/o in high A ball come May. I may well be unfairly picking on Ray, given how little I actually know about him, but for comparisons sake:
Ray, 21 y/o, High A ball (2016):
57 Games, 5 HR, 9 SB, 7.9%BB, 21.3%K, .299 BABiP, .139 ISO, .307 OBP, 101 wRC+
Winker, 20 y/o, High A ball (2014):
53 Games, 13 HR, 5 SB, 16.1%BB, 18.5%K, .349 BABiP, .263 ISO, .426 OBP, 160 wRC+
Winker then followed with 2 more years of wRC+ in the 130s, so its not like he hasn’t had success since. To me, Ray is just a less advanced and less successful Winker.
Granted though, I have no idea how much the knee injury affected Ray last year. And I did mention that I’m just working with the limited statistics that are available for MiLB, and amateur scouting. Im sure Trey has access to better information and more experience than I, but I’m still backing my relatively uneducated opinion that Winker was overlooked for this list.
winker had been working his way up as a high school draftee since age 18, though. i don’t totally disregard the stats of this year’s draft class, but i think it’s tricky to use them for direct comparisons with guys who have been in the pro system for a while already, since they’re probably in the middle of making some pretty big adjustments – wood bats, better pitching, etc
i’m not at all anti-winker, i just don’t think we can conclude a huge amount about ray from those stats
I agree.
Arcia should not be eligible because he has 201 MLB ABs.
No Chance Sisco or Trey Mancini? Both have hit at every level & are clearly part of the O’s plans in 2017, especially Mancini, who could be the regular DH if Trumbo is not re-signed.
Granted Mancini isn’t a top 100-150 prospect, but he’s an interesting young player with some pop & a respectable track record
I general I think it’s very hard to rank 1B and C prospects highly, for fantasy purposes. Case in point is probably AJ Reed, who has dropped quite a bit from where he was prior to this ranking. Tyler White could be another example. You really have to be confident in the bat to make a difference at those positions (for C there’s usually a much longer offensive transition). For Cisco, he doesn’t strike me as someone with a lot of power, so I have some skepticism about how his offensive game will translate.
Might you have forgotten Tapia? I’d guess impact and scoring are very high, and despite Desmond/Parra, his hype will be high as a Rocky. I do know scouts are divided, but surely at least a 3.
Also, can you explain why you are so high on scouting and scoring for Isan Diaz?
Tapia was somewhat close to making the 5 x 5 Top 50, but for now I think at best he’s a high average and not much more type hitter. If he develops power that’s a different story in COL, but I don’t see much evidence that it will come soon, if ever. He’s not likely a great asset in FGPTS.
As for Diaz he’s a hitter first and should likely stick at 2B. He had a lot of helium in the 2nd half and I think that will continue in 2017 as he gets closer to MLB. More on Diaz here.
Ozzie Albies is a major prospect that is missing. Probably top 10
Albies is #40 on the 5 x 5 list since his speed/average skills set plays much better in that format. Speed-only players don’t score well in the linear-weighted format of FGPTS. I don’t see a strong case that Albies is a top 10 prospect in any fantasy format at this point.
I saw below where you say it’s hard for 1b to rank highly on these lists because of what’s required at that position. That said, how close do you have Dominic Smith?
D. Smith would have ranked in the high 60’s in the FGPTS ranking list. I’m probably a bit lower on him than most but a lot of that is probably a bias against 1B prospects (as you mentioned). As an example, Victor Martinez hit .289/.351/.476 with 27 HR and a .351 wOBA last season (2016). He finished the season as the 18th best 1B overall in FGPTS. I’d consider that probably a 90th percentile outcome for D. Smith, and I really question whether he’ll ever hit for that much power. He can still be plenty valuable in fantasy, and he might be a good example of a prospect that could end up underrated over time because of the 1B bias, but for this process he didn’t score highly enough to make the top 50.
nfielder Ozzie Albies (568 PA, 1.8 zWAR) is one of the top prospects in all of baseball, having reach Triple-A last year in just his age-19 season. While his numbers for Gwinnett weren’t excellent, Albies’ mere presence on that roster speaks both to his present and future ability. ZiPS calls for league-average production from him already, rendering him one of Atlanta’s top present-value players, as well.
Keep in mind these rankings are specifically in the context of fantasy, not MLB. Albies has impressed at a young age, but his particular skill set (speed/average) makes it likely that his value will take a long path (several seasons) to relevance in FGPTS rather than a shorter path in traditional roto leagues (where he is ranked in the top 50 above). In many ways I expect an Orlando Arcia-like debut for Albies (this year or next), and I like Arcia better long term in FGPTS (or OBP leagues).
As an example, Billy Hamilton is currently owned in just 70% of FGPTS leagues compared to 89% ownership in Classic leagues (5 x 5). Context is everything, which is the point of the Scoring metric, and the scorecard process overall.