Archive for ADP

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/31/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here. Read the rest of this entry »


Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here. Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Healing Episode w/ Ron Shandler

The Healing Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ron Shandler

LABR Congratulations

Strategy Section

  • Dealing with the current injury frequency level in baseball
    • Roster construction
    • Risk management
      • Broad Assesment Balance Sheet (BABS)
    • Reasons for injury frequency by team
    • Risk-adjusted pricing vs. managing to a risk budget
    • First round picks
  • How to think about Binary Risk
  • Playing fantay against “Power Drafters” who take on more risk
  • Is the market still right to draft risky elite starting pitching?
  • Is the market overpricing stable closers in early drafts?
  • How to value prospects in drafts?

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Shortstop ADP Market Report: 12/17/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Read the rest of this entry »


Second Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »


First Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »


Catcher ADP Market Report: 12/6/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Read the rest of this entry »


Beat the Shift Podcast – Fantasy All-Stars Roundtable Episode w/ Paul Sporer & Justin Mason (The Sleeper & The Bust)

The Fantasy All-Stars Roundtable Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guests: Paul Sporer & Justin Mason (The Sleeper & The Bust)

Injury Guru Trivia of the Week

1st Half Fantasy MVP – Hitters

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Biggest Market Risers from the Memorial Day Leagues

This past weekend, the NFBC held their Second Chance Memorial Day leagues that have a season running from yesterday – Memorial Day – through the end of the season. Of course, you do not get the stats accumulated to this point, but the first two months absolutely play a huge role in the draft. Let’s look at some of the biggest moves when comparing these leagues with the Rotowire Online Championship leagues the NFBC also runs. Both are 12-team 5×5 setups so it makes the comparisons easy.

There were 48 guys who moved up at least 120 picks (10 rounds). More than half of those still landed outside the top 10 rounds while the remaining 21 looks like a who’s-who of the hottest players to start the season.

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Ariel Cohen’s 2021 Bold Predictions

Opening day is upon us!

Starting this afternoon, Major League Baseball games will officially count for the 2021 season standings.

After a 60-game short season in 2020, baseball looks to drive us just a bit closer towards normalcy. Yes, there will still be abundant COVID protocols in effect, and yes – fan attendance will be restricted. But for most of us, the sun feels just a bit brighter today.

A large number of our fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this year were shifted to virtual venues. Aside from a larger online presence, the vast majority of fantasy baseball players had a somewhat normal draft season. Remember last year, when we essentially had two distinct baseball draft seasons (in February/March as well as in June/July)? Hopefully the 2021 season will proceed without major interruptions.

It is now time to share my 2021 bold predictions with you. One of the first fantasy baseball articles that I had ever written was the 2018 edition. I am proud to be back for the 4th straight year, sharing with you a few unlikely events – that I believe have the chance to come true.

As usual, the ATC Projections have helped shape much of what is to come in this article. Some predictions stem from my own personal analysis on the player, or of a team situation. Other nuggets arise from blind optimism or the crossing of my fingers. These are all possibilities that could happen, that I feel will happen if things break just right.

As always – please remember: These are bold predictions, not crazy predictions. I am not going to predict the impossible. Raimel Tapia will not lead the majors in homers, and I won’t predict that. Khris Davis will not contend for a batting title, and I won’t consider that. Those are not bold predictions – those are impossible ones.

My definition of a bold prediction is one that lies roughly in the 70th to 90th range of percentile possible outcomes. If done right, one should expect to hit on some 10-30% of all bold predictions in the long-term. Any more outlandish than 10% would be miraculous, while any more probable than 30% would be too easy a guess.

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