Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising



Top 100 Players Falling

Nolan Arenado (-6.98)- Arenado’s drop in th ADP is a bit surprising considering how good of a season he is coming off of. It may be more of a matter of other players rising above him. It seems pretty safe to say that he can repeat last year’s output or even improve upon it in the batting average department which makes him a nice value at a position with a number of question marks. 


Top 200 Players Rising



Top 200 Players Falling

Matt Chapman (-10.54)- Chapman started off the season slow, but it only got worse as the season went on, even though he found his power strike. From July on, he hit .190 and had the fourth worst strikeout rate of any qualified hitter in the Majors. Some of the struggles can be attributed to not being 100%, but a fair amount of it is approach. He will play every day because the defense is elite, but if he gets traded, the price will rise, but if he stays in Oakland, that lineup around him may be the worst in baseball. 


Top 300 Players Rising

Jeimer Candelario (+18.48)- It feels like Candelario is always “this year’s sleeper” in the industry. Sure, he had a nice second half buoyed by a huge September, but there just isn’t enough upside in his bat for him if he starts going in the top 200 picks. The price is fine, for now, but there just isn’t much of a path to another level. 

Jonathan Villar (+10.83)- Check out the piece in this series on shortstops. 

Cavan Biggio (+22.55)- I think Biggio’s rise has a lot to do with name recognition. People often will give players a second chance after they burn people, especially when they are still young. Biggio is coming off of an injury plagued season, but there is still power and speed in the profile and is hitting in one of the best lineups in based. With Semien gone, he could even hit up pretty high in the order, which would increase the value. 

Josh Jung (+13.23)- It is a bit surprising that Jung is continue to rise in spite of the Rangers signing Semien and Seager. I am on board with it though. I think there is a real shot that the Rangers are aggressive with Jung as they appear to be trying to open up a window right now. Jung breezed through AA and AAA, showing a plus hit tool with power. There is no reason to think the 23-year-old will be in AAA long. 


Top 300 Players Falling

Eugenio Suarez (-14.75)- Suarez was awful for most of the season, but salvaged  things with a gigantic Spetember, hitting .370 with eight home runs. I don’t think we are getting back to the guy we saw in 2019, but worst case, we are at least getting 30+ homers and a boatload of RBIs. The price is too good to pass up if it keeps dropping. 


Others of Note

J.D. Davis (-26.33) and Bretty Baty (-30.94)- The drops for Davis and Baty likely come from the recent Mets signings which will make it difficult for either to get full time plate appearances without one or both being moved in a trade. Of the two, I prefer Baty in drafts right now. His price is so cheap and there has been a lot of chatter about how great he looked in 2021 and in the Arizona Fall League. If Davis was moved, that might peak my interest , especially at the reduced price. 


Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/21
11/15/21-12/27/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 Change
3.92 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 5.67 1.75
19.69 Rafael Devers BOS 3B 20 0.31
24.35 Manny Machado SD 3B 27.06 2.71
49.62 Adalberto Mondesi KC 3B 52.61 2.99
57.77 Austin Riley ATL 3B 56.89 -0.88
81.92 Nolan Arenado STL 3B 74.94 -6.98
93.92 Kris Bryant SF 3B, OF 92.28 -1.64
101.42 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 94.06 -7.36
115.23 Anthony Rendon LAA 3B 113.17 -2.06
117.15 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 123.28 6.13
145.04 Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT 3B 149.94 4.9
146.42 Yoan Moncada CWS 3B 152.33 5.91
169.65 Justin Turner LAD 3B 165.83 -3.82
171.81 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 180.39 8.58
180.15 Ryan McMahon COL 2B, 3B 184.11 3.96
196.65 Matt Chapman OAK 3B 186.11 -10.54
197.04 Eduardo Escobar NYM 2B, 3B 200.39 3.35
214.96 Jeimer Candelario DET 3B 233.44 18.48
219.19 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B, SS 204.44 -14.75
223.27 Josh Donaldson MIN 3B 232.5 9.23
264.23 Cavan Biggio TOR 3B 286.78 22.55
270 Jonathan Villar NYM 3B, SS 280.83 10.83
271.5 Alec Bohm PHI 3B 281 9.5
274.38 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 268.78 -5.6
275.92 Gio Urshela NYY 3B, SS 271.22 -4.7
285.54 Kyle Seager SEA 3B 282.56 -2.98
286.77 Josh Jung TEX 3B 300 13.23
302.31 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 341.67 39.36
330.08 Patrick Wisdom CHC 3B 322.89 -7.19
332.81 Hunter Dozier KC 3B, OF 332.44 -0.37
336.85 Joey Wendle MIA 3B, SS 353.56 16.71
339.88 Brian Anderson MIA 3B 348.17 8.29
363.96 Josh Harrison OAK 2B, 3B, OF 345.72 -18.24
364.77 Ha-Seong Kim SD 2B, 3B, SS 398.06 33.29
368.81 Yandy Diaz TB 1B, 3B 374.61 5.8
376.19 Mike Moustakas CIN 3B 361.78 -14.41
384.88 Evan Longoria SF 3B 411.22 26.34
390.08 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 379.33 -10.75
422.73 Jose Miranda MIN 3B 499.94 77.21
431.77 J.D. Davis NYM 3B 405.44 -26.33
452.69 Tyler Wade LAA 3B, SS, OF 581.56 128.87
464.38 Rougned Odor BAL 2B, 3B 624.39 160.01
469.62 Carter Kieboom WAS 3B 478.06 8.44
536.15 Santiago Espinal TOR 3B 579.67 43.52
565.27 Aledmys Diaz HOU 3B 610.17 44.9
577.15 Jon Berti MIA 2B, 3B 559.56 -17.59
595.12 Phil Gosselin LAA 1B, 3B, OF 542.61 -52.51
596.54 Matt Duffy CHC 2B, 3B 618.56 22.02
627.5 Yu Chang CLE 1B, 3B 651.44 23.94
628 Jake Burger CWS 3B 699.06 71.06
629.04 Mike Brosseau MLW 2B, 3B 711.61 82.57
631.85 Nolan Jones CLE 3B 592.39 -39.46
669.19 Maikel Franco BAL 3B 740.67 71.48
672.96 Josh VanMeter ARZ 2B, 3B 718.89 45.93
673.19 Yonny Hernandez TEX 3B 656.5 -16.69
678.23 David Bote CHC 2B, 3B 607.39 -70.84
691.88 Colton Welker COL 3B 688.22 -3.66
708.27 Hanser Alberto KC 2B, 3B 669.22 -39.05
709.15 Asdrubal Cabrera CIN 3B 702.28 -6.87
712.12 Kelvin Gutierrez BAL 3B 737.83 25.71
722.81 Elehuris Montero COL 3B 721.11 -1.7
724.19 Joshua Fuentes COL 1B, 3B 676.56 -47.63
725.77 Brendan Donovan STL 3B
727.5 Starlin Castro WAS 3B 690.89 -36.61
728.54 Jack Mayfield LAA 3B 714.39 -14.15
729.96 Romy Gonzalez CWS 3B 714.17 -15.79
731.19 Kevin Smith TOR 3B 737.28 6.09
733.73 Willians Astudillo MIN 1B, 3B 731.22 -2.51
737.92 Travis Shaw BOS 1B, 3B 694 -43.92
740.15 Isan Diaz MIA 2B, 3B 732.06 -8.09
741.27 Brett Baty NYM 3B 710.33 -30.94
743.62 Emmanuel Rivera KC 3B
743.73 Luis Guillorme NYM 3B -743.73
744.19 Ronald Torreyes PHI 3B, SS 727.33 -16.86
747.62 Jason Vosler SF 3B 734.61 -13.01
748.12 Charlie Culberson TEX 3B 749.28 1.16
ADP and positional eligibility is based on NFBC Draft Champion Leagues

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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2 years ago

Suggestion that your ADP comparison cutoff be before and after December 1. That would allow a comparison of how the market has discounted all the transactions prior to the lockout.