Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/21
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
Nolan Arenado (-6.98)- Arenado’s drop in th ADP is a bit surprising considering how good of a season he is coming off of. It may be more of a matter of other players rising above him. It seems pretty safe to say that he can repeat last year’s output or even improve upon it in the batting average department which makes him a nice value at a position with a number of question marks.
Top 200 Players Rising
None
Top 200 Players Falling
Matt Chapman (-10.54)- Chapman started off the season slow, but it only got worse as the season went on, even though he found his power strike. From July on, he hit .190 and had the fourth worst strikeout rate of any qualified hitter in the Majors. Some of the struggles can be attributed to not being 100%, but a fair amount of it is approach. He will play every day because the defense is elite, but if he gets traded, the price will rise, but if he stays in Oakland, that lineup around him may be the worst in baseball.
Top 300 Players Rising
Jeimer Candelario (+18.48)- It feels like Candelario is always “this year’s sleeper” in the industry. Sure, he had a nice second half buoyed by a huge September, but there just isn’t enough upside in his bat for him if he starts going in the top 200 picks. The price is fine, for now, but there just isn’t much of a path to another level.
Jonathan Villar (+10.83)- Check out the piece in this series on shortstops.
Cavan Biggio (+22.55)- I think Biggio’s rise has a lot to do with name recognition. People often will give players a second chance after they burn people, especially when they are still young. Biggio is coming off of an injury plagued season, but there is still power and speed in the profile and is hitting in one of the best lineups in based. With Semien gone, he could even hit up pretty high in the order, which would increase the value.
Josh Jung (+13.23)- It is a bit surprising that Jung is continue to rise in spite of the Rangers signing Semien and Seager. I am on board with it though. I think there is a real shot that the Rangers are aggressive with Jung as they appear to be trying to open up a window right now. Jung breezed through AA and AAA, showing a plus hit tool with power. There is no reason to think the 23-year-old will be in AAA long.
Top 300 Players Falling
Eugenio Suarez (-14.75)- Suarez was awful for most of the season, but salvaged things with a gigantic Spetember, hitting .370 with eight home runs. I don’t think we are getting back to the guy we saw in 2019, but worst case, we are at least getting 30+ homers and a boatload of RBIs. The price is too good to pass up if it keeps dropping.
Others of Note
J.D. Davis (-26.33) and Bretty Baty (-30.94)- The drops for Davis and Baty likely come from the recent Mets signings which will make it difficult for either to get full time plate appearances without one or both being moved in a trade. Of the two, I prefer Baty in drafts right now. His price is so cheap and there has been a lot of chatter about how great he looked in 2021 and in the Arizona Fall League. If Davis was moved, that might peak my interest , especially at the reduced price.
| 11/15/21-12/27/21 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/21-11/14/21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.92 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | 5.67 | 1.75 |
| 19.69 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | 20 | 0.31 |
| 24.35 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | 27.06 | 2.71 |
| 49.62 | Adalberto Mondesi | KC | 3B | 52.61 | 2.99 |
| 57.77 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | 56.89 | -0.88 |
| 81.92 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 3B | 74.94 | -6.98 |
| 93.92 | Kris Bryant | SF | 3B, OF | 92.28 | -1.64 |
| 101.42 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | 94.06 | -7.36 |
| 115.23 | Anthony Rendon | LAA | 3B | 113.17 | -2.06 |
| 117.15 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | 123.28 | 6.13 |
| 145.04 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | 149.94 | 4.9 |
| 146.42 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 3B | 152.33 | 5.91 |
| 169.65 | Justin Turner | LAD | 3B | 165.83 | -3.82 |
| 171.81 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 180.39 | 8.58 |
| 180.15 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 2B, 3B | 184.11 | 3.96 |
| 196.65 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | 186.11 | -10.54 |
| 197.04 | Eduardo Escobar | NYM | 2B, 3B | 200.39 | 3.35 |
| 214.96 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 3B | 233.44 | 18.48 |
| 219.19 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B, SS | 204.44 | -14.75 |
| 223.27 | Josh Donaldson | MIN | 3B | 232.5 | 9.23 |
| 264.23 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 3B | 286.78 | 22.55 |
| 270 | Jonathan Villar | NYM | 3B, SS | 280.83 | 10.83 |
| 271.5 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 3B | 281 | 9.5 |
| 274.38 | Abraham Toro | SEA | 2B, 3B | 268.78 | -5.6 |
| 275.92 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B, SS | 271.22 | -4.7 |
| 285.54 | Kyle Seager | SEA | 3B | 282.56 | -2.98 |
| 286.77 | Josh Jung | TEX | 3B | 300 | 13.23 |
| 302.31 | Luis Arraez | MIN | 2B, 3B, OF | 341.67 | 39.36 |
| 330.08 | Patrick Wisdom | CHC | 3B | 322.89 | -7.19 |
| 332.81 | Hunter Dozier | KC | 3B, OF | 332.44 | -0.37 |
| 336.85 | Joey Wendle | MIA | 3B, SS | 353.56 | 16.71 |
| 339.88 | Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | 348.17 | 8.29 |
| 363.96 | Josh Harrison | OAK | 2B, 3B, OF | 345.72 | -18.24 |
| 364.77 | Ha-Seong Kim | SD | 2B, 3B, SS | 398.06 | 33.29 |
| 368.81 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 1B, 3B | 374.61 | 5.8 |
| 376.19 | Mike Moustakas | CIN | 3B | 361.78 | -14.41 |
| 384.88 | Evan Longoria | SF | 3B | 411.22 | 26.34 |
| 390.08 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 1B, 2B, 3B | 379.33 | -10.75 |
| 422.73 | Jose Miranda | MIN | 3B | 499.94 | 77.21 |
| 431.77 | J.D. Davis | NYM | 3B | 405.44 | -26.33 |
| 452.69 | Tyler Wade | LAA | 3B, SS, OF | 581.56 | 128.87 |
| 464.38 | Rougned Odor | BAL | 2B, 3B | 624.39 | 160.01 |
| 469.62 | Carter Kieboom | WAS | 3B | 478.06 | 8.44 |
| 536.15 | Santiago Espinal | TOR | 3B | 579.67 | 43.52 |
| 565.27 | Aledmys Diaz | HOU | 3B | 610.17 | 44.9 |
| 577.15 | Jon Berti | MIA | 2B, 3B | 559.56 | -17.59 |
| 595.12 | Phil Gosselin | LAA | 1B, 3B, OF | 542.61 | -52.51 |
| 596.54 | Matt Duffy | CHC | 2B, 3B | 618.56 | 22.02 |
| 627.5 | Yu Chang | CLE | 1B, 3B | 651.44 | 23.94 |
| 628 | Jake Burger | CWS | 3B | 699.06 | 71.06 |
| 629.04 | Mike Brosseau | MLW | 2B, 3B | 711.61 | 82.57 |
| 631.85 | Nolan Jones | CLE | 3B | 592.39 | -39.46 |
| 669.19 | Maikel Franco | BAL | 3B | 740.67 | 71.48 |
| 672.96 | Josh VanMeter | ARZ | 2B, 3B | 718.89 | 45.93 |
| 673.19 | Yonny Hernandez | TEX | 3B | 656.5 | -16.69 |
| 678.23 | David Bote | CHC | 2B, 3B | 607.39 | -70.84 |
| 691.88 | Colton Welker | COL | 3B | 688.22 | -3.66 |
| 708.27 | Hanser Alberto | KC | 2B, 3B | 669.22 | -39.05 |
| 709.15 | Asdrubal Cabrera | CIN | 3B | 702.28 | -6.87 |
| 712.12 | Kelvin Gutierrez | BAL | 3B | 737.83 | 25.71 |
| 722.81 | Elehuris Montero | COL | 3B | 721.11 | -1.7 |
| 724.19 | Joshua Fuentes | COL | 1B, 3B | 676.56 | -47.63 |
| 725.77 | Brendan Donovan | STL | 3B | ||
| 727.5 | Starlin Castro | WAS | 3B | 690.89 | -36.61 |
| 728.54 | Jack Mayfield | LAA | 3B | 714.39 | -14.15 |
| 729.96 | Romy Gonzalez | CWS | 3B | 714.17 | -15.79 |
| 731.19 | Kevin Smith | TOR | 3B | 737.28 | 6.09 |
| 733.73 | Willians Astudillo | MIN | 1B, 3B | 731.22 | -2.51 |
| 737.92 | Travis Shaw | BOS | 1B, 3B | 694 | -43.92 |
| 740.15 | Isan Diaz | MIA | 2B, 3B | 732.06 | -8.09 |
| 741.27 | Brett Baty | NYM | 3B | 710.33 | -30.94 |
| 743.62 | Emmanuel Rivera | KC | 3B | ||
| 743.73 | Luis Guillorme | NYM | 3B | -743.73 | |
| 744.19 | Ronald Torreyes | PHI | 3B, SS | 727.33 | -16.86 |
| 747.62 | Jason Vosler | SF | 3B | 734.61 | -13.01 |
| 748.12 | Charlie Culberson | TEX | 3B | 749.28 | 1.16 |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Suggestion that your ADP comparison cutoff be before and after December 1. That would allow a comparison of how the market has discounted all the transactions prior to the lockout.
No “Players Falling” writeup for Bregman? Looks like he’s fallen more than Arenado.
If the fantasy community is wising up to Arenado’s batted ball profile from the past 2 years, then we should expect his ADP to drop further. He probably still pulls the ball in the air often enough to hit 25 HR, but he’s looking like a candidate to see his slash line crater to around .700 OPS with any further depreciation of his skills which will destroy the rest of his production. Drafting him to be a starting 3B seems particularly risky to me. 3B is increasingly looking like a position where a fantasy player can wait until much later in the draft to address it if they don’t have the opportunity to get one of the guys at the very top.
What depreciation in his skills are you seeing now? I truly don’t see any. All of his statcast and batted ball data looks basically identical to what he was doing in Colorado. If anything, his plate discipline seems to have gotten better. The only possible spot I could see is that his barrel percentage is down, but it’s such a minor difference as to be negligible (we’re talking a difference of 2-3 barrels over a whole season)
His batted ball profile from 2021 certainly does not look like it did in 2019, with most of his metrics near the bottom 1/3 of the league (hard hit %, avg. exit velocity, barrel %, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG). His fly-ball tendencies reached an all-time high last year in FB%, pull %, and launch angle. This is not a batted ball profile that plays well outside of Coors. Chasing home runs at the cost of fly balls that don’t leave the park can lead to a batting average crater. He’s not the only player suffering a similar fate – just look at Bregman and Lindor.
I’m willing to give players a pass on a poor 2020, but last year he also posted an all-time low HR/FB%. Combining it all with one of his career lowest BB% and it’s the recipe for a .240/.290/.420 batting line which would be a devastating result for those who draft him inside the top 100. I think a repeat of 2021 is a 90% outcome which is about what he would need to produce to justify the cost, and a 50% outcome will be a regrettable selection.
I agree with Buehner’s. He’s hitting the ball in the air too much, and many of his hard hit balls are now only mediums.
Justin – the number of typos in your articles is getting ridiculous – I count 11 of them (“th”, “Chaman”, “but if he stay in”, “Biggion”, “best lineups in based”, “is continue to rise”, “agressive”, “opne”, “was awfully for”, “slavaged”, “peak my interest”).
Please take the take to read your articles before posting.
“Please take the take” – as Bart Simpson said, the ironing is delicious.
Haha, my mistake – if I could fix my typo I would!