First Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day.

Top 100 Players Rising

Paul Goldschmidt (+13.38)- Goldschmidt is likely rising as drafters begin to realize just how good his 2021 was and how it is backed up in the underlying stats. The big bonus was his speed, stealing 12 bases on 12 attempts. There are some questions about whether a new manager in St. Louis may change that, but Goldy is a reliable first baseman at a top heavy position. 

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

CJ Cron (+10.44)- Cron is rising after re-signing in Colorado which is so Rockies (blocking younger players), but also great for his fantasy value. He had an up and down start to the season, but hit a groove in August, hitting 14 home runs and slashing .337/.408/.643 in the final two months of the season. Even with his price rising, he is a nice buy right now. 

Tyler Stephenson (+15.2)- See the piece in this series on catchers. 

Ty France (+14.93)- France is beginning to rise after a good season and the news that he will be the everyday first baseman for the Mariners to start the season. I question how much he should be rising. Yes, France will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that is getting better, but as it gets better, it is likely he drops down the lineup. I think he is an interesting high floor/low ceiling guy, which is nice, but [SPOILER ALERT] I prefer getting the cheaper version in Yuli Gurriel later. 

Rhys Hoskins (+12.13)- It is a bit hard to figure out why Hoskins is rising. It may be that he just started a bit low in the ADP, but I don’t know if that is true. The talent has never been an issue for Hoskins, but he has now finished each of the last two seasons with injuries which is a bit concerning. I think he is a pretty easy fade in a deep position. 

Yuli Gurriel (+15.94)- Gurriel is the epitome of the low ceiling/high floor target. If you don’t include the 2020 abbreviated season, he has always been a .290 with low strikeout rates and a nice counting stats. I don’t think we ever see another 30 homer season, but he offers a great batting average late in the draft. 

Top 200 Players Falling

Max Muncy (-10.87)- With the news that Muncy may have a torn UCL, Muncy will continue to plummet. I love him as a player, so this is disappointing, but until we have a timetable or more information, you should take him off your draft boards and start throwing darts at Edwin Rios in deeper formats. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Bobby Dalbec (+35.44)- Tell me if you have heard this one before, Bobby Dalbec finished strong and now people are starting to overhype him. Yeah, I am not falling for this one in the same way that I didn’t fall for it last year. That being said, when he drops outside the top 250, he isn’t a bad power play. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Brandon Belt (-11.98)- It is a bit surprising to see Belt dropping after re-signing in San Francisco, but maybe the Giants platoon happy ways and difficult park have people disappointed he came back. Belt had a massive season in just 97 games, but his inability to stay healthy limits his upside. That being said, he is dirt cheap and if the DH comes to the NL, maybe the Giants can squeeze 130 games out of the 33-year-old. 

Luke Voit (-14.03)- I think Voit’s drop has to do with the Yankees interest in Matt Olson trade rumors. If Voit can stay healthy, he is a 30 homer bat, but he has struggled to stay on the field. In deep leagues, he is hard to bet on without the replacement value around, but in draft and holds and shallower formats, he is a nice high upside gamble. 

Others of Note

Bobby Bradley (+29.59)- Bradley is rising after the news that Guardians are expecting to allow him to be the everyday starter at first base this year. He is a bit of an all or nothing power source, but getting 25+ home runs after pick 350 isn’t nothing in fantasy. 

Nick Pratto (+33.12)- Pratto is the future at first base for the Royals and could make his debut early in 2022. After hitting 36 home runs and stealing 12 bases with a .265 average between AA and AAA in 2021, there’s a lot of reason to think he could be a Goldschmidt light player in 2022 if he does get an early call. 

 

First Base ADP Market Report