First Base ADP Market Report: 12/12/21 by Justin Mason December 13, 2021 With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. Top 100 Players Rising Paul Goldschmidt (+13.38)- Goldschmidt is likely rising as drafters begin to realize just how good his 2021 was and how it is backed up in the underlying stats. The big bonus was his speed, stealing 12 bases on 12 attempts. There are some questions about whether a new manager in St. Louis may change that, but Goldy is a reliable first baseman at a top heavy position. Top 100 Players Falling None Top 200 Players Rising CJ Cron (+10.44)- Cron is rising after re-signing in Colorado which is so Rockies (blocking younger players), but also great for his fantasy value. He had an up and down start to the season, but hit a groove in August, hitting 14 home runs and slashing .337/.408/.643 in the final two months of the season. Even with his price rising, he is a nice buy right now. Tyler Stephenson (+15.2)- See the piece in this series on catchers. Ty France (+14.93)- France is beginning to rise after a good season and the news that he will be the everyday first baseman for the Mariners to start the season. I question how much he should be rising. Yes, France will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that is getting better, but as it gets better, it is likely he drops down the lineup. I think he is an interesting high floor/low ceiling guy, which is nice, but [SPOILER ALERT] I prefer getting the cheaper version in Yuli Gurriel later. Rhys Hoskins (+12.13)- It is a bit hard to figure out why Hoskins is rising. It may be that he just started a bit low in the ADP, but I don’t know if that is true. The talent has never been an issue for Hoskins, but he has now finished each of the last two seasons with injuries which is a bit concerning. I think he is a pretty easy fade in a deep position. Yuli Gurriel (+15.94)- Gurriel is the epitome of the low ceiling/high floor target. If you don’t include the 2020 abbreviated season, he has always been a .290 with low strikeout rates and a nice counting stats. I don’t think we ever see another 30 homer season, but he offers a great batting average late in the draft. Top 200 Players Falling Max Muncy (-10.87)- With the news that Muncy may have a torn UCL, Muncy will continue to plummet. I love him as a player, so this is disappointing, but until we have a timetable or more information, you should take him off your draft boards and start throwing darts at Edwin Rios in deeper formats. Top 300 Players Rising Bobby Dalbec (+35.44)- Tell me if you have heard this one before, Bobby Dalbec finished strong and now people are starting to overhype him. Yeah, I am not falling for this one in the same way that I didn’t fall for it last year. That being said, when he drops outside the top 250, he isn’t a bad power play. Top 300 Players Falling Brandon Belt (-11.98)- It is a bit surprising to see Belt dropping after re-signing in San Francisco, but maybe the Giants platoon happy ways and difficult park have people disappointed he came back. Belt had a massive season in just 97 games, but his inability to stay healthy limits his upside. That being said, he is dirt cheap and if the DH comes to the NL, maybe the Giants can squeeze 130 games out of the 33-year-old. Luke Voit (-14.03)- I think Voit’s drop has to do with the Yankees interest in Matt Olson trade rumors. If Voit can stay healthy, he is a 30 homer bat, but he has struggled to stay on the field. In deep leagues, he is hard to bet on without the replacement value around, but in draft and holds and shallower formats, he is a nice high upside gamble. Others of Note Bobby Bradley (+29.59)- Bradley is rising after the news that Guardians are expecting to allow him to be the everyday starter at first base this year. He is a bit of an all or nothing power source, but getting 25+ home runs after pick 350 isn’t nothing in fantasy. Nick Pratto (+33.12)- Pratto is the future at first base for the Royals and could make his debut early in 2022. After hitting 36 home runs and stealing 12 bases with a .265 average between AA and AAA in 2021, there’s a lot of reason to think he could be a Goldschmidt light player in 2022 if he does get an early call. First Base ADP Market Report 11/15/21-12/12/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 Change 5.46 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 6.11 0.65 17.92 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 19.17 1.25 40.15 Matt Olson OAK 1B 43.11 2.96 46.62 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 60 13.38 58.08 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 67.78 9.7 68.58 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 72.61 4.03 109.81 Max Muncy LAD 1B, 2B 98.94 -10.87 111.35 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 115.61 4.26 115.69 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 123.28 7.59 116.88 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 112.72 -4.16 122.5 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B, SS 122.83 0.33 130.5 C.J. Cron COL 1B 140.94 10.44 140.85 Ty France SEA 1B, 2B 155.78 14.93 143.31 Josh Bell WAS 1B 151.44 8.13 144.54 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 156.67 12.13 157.04 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 160.44 3.4 158.58 Tyler Stephenson CIN C, 1B 173.78 15.2 166.08 Joey Votto CIN 1B 165.11 -0.97 169.81 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 178.17 8.36 185.85 Trey Mancini BAL 1B 181.89 -3.96 193.62 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 201.44 7.82 205.35 Jonathan Schoop DET 1B, 2B 205.28 -0.07 225.12 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B 260.56 35.44 227.77 Frank Schwindel CHC 1B 232.61 4.84 228.31 Brandon Belt SF 1B 216.33 -11.98 252.85 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 243 -9.85 262.23 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 252.72 -9.51 264.08 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 273.11 9.03 279.77 Jesus Aguilar MIA 1B 283.39 3.62 287.31 Luke Voit NYY 1B 273.28 -14.03 302.54 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 301.33 -1.21 348.27 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B, OF 352 3.73 357.65 Eric Hosmer SD 1B 335.28 -22.37 379.69 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 375 -4.69 380.35 Bobby Bradley CLE 1B 409.94 29.59 382.19 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 379.33 -2.86 398.23 Yandy Diaz TB 1B, 3B 374.61 -23.62 402.69 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B, OF 528.11 125.42 408.92 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 407.72 -1.2 409.27 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 358.56 -50.71 437.65 Carlos Santana KC 1B 430.67 -6.98 453.15 Miguel Cabrera DET 1B 461.39 8.24 469.38 Darin Ruf 러프 SF 1B, OF 436.56 -32.82 478 Jurickson Profar SD 1B, OF 518.72 40.72 495.65 Juan Yepez STL 1B 574.39 78.74 517.96 Triston Casas BOS 1B 534.17 16.21 536.35 Colin Moran PIT 1B 442.06 -94.29 565.5 Brad Miller PHI 1B, OF 531 -34.5 573.27 Phil Gosselin LAA 1B, 3B, OF 542.61 -30.66 576.77 Nick Pratto KC 1B 609.89 33.12 577.38 Jace Peterson MLW 1B, 2B, OF 608.61 31.23 578.27 Edwin Rios LAD 1B 543.11 -35.16 602.35 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 546.72 -55.63 608.88 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 536.11 -72.77 612.5 Sam Huff TEX 1B 608.78 -3.72 623.27 Matt Beaty LAD 1B, OF 633 9.73 670.81 Yu Chang CLE 1B, 3B 651.44 -19.37 694.19 Evan White SEA 1B 709.22 15.03 711.38 Daniel Vogelbach MLW 1B 685.06 -26.32 721.58 Albert Pujols LAD 1B 743.11 21.53 736.85 Johan Camargo PHI 1B NA NA 737.08 Ryan Zimmerman WAS 1B 749.22 12.14 738.5 Joshua Fuentes COL 1B, 3B 676.56 -61.94 740.35 Willians Astudillo MIN 1B, 3B 731.22 -9.13 741.65 Taylor Jones HOU 1B 747.5 5.85 743.73 Luis Guillorme NYM 3B NA NA 743.96 Jake Bauers SEA 1B, OF 746.11 2.15 744.19 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B, OF 733.22 -10.97 744.27 Brendan Donovan STL 3B NA NA 744.38 Erik Gonzalez PIT 3B NA NA 744.73 Kevin Padlo SEA 3B NA NA 746.23 Emmanuel Rivera KC 3B NA NA 747.42 Matt Thaiss LAA 1B 745.39 -2.03 747.58 John Nogowski PIT 1B NA NA 748.42 Chris Gittens NYY 1B 742.39 -6.03 NA Travis Shaw BOS 1B, 3B 694 NA NA Jose Marmolejos SEA 1B 749.22 NA NA Renato Nunez DET 1B 749.39 NA SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions Leagues.