Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/31/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

Bryan Reynolds (+9.78)- Reynolds’ rise is interesting. He is coming off of a great season in which he hit .302 with 24 home runs and five stolen bases. Typically a player like him won’t get the credit he deserves because he plays on such a bad team and had such a bad season in 2020. However, he is going to hit third in an improving lineup and is one of the few everyday players outside of the top 75 that you can bank on an elite average while not hurting you in other categories. 

Top 100 Players Falling

Eloy Jiménez (-5.54)- It is a bit surprising to see Eloy falling here. It may be a matter of a lack of speed lowering him or just others jumping up. It was mostly a lost season for him, but there is no reason to think he cant get back to where he was prior to getting injured, which was a 30+ home run hitter with a good average. 

Top 200 Players Rising

Chris Taylor (+13.63)- Taylor’s rise isn’t surprising since he was able to resign in Los Angeles. Taylor is coming off of a great season and with Corey Seager leaving for Texas, Taylor should be in line for everyday at bats and a repeat of his great 2021 season. 

Avisaíl García (+14.62)- Garcia’s rise is also due to his signing a long term deal. That being said, I don’t love the landing spot in Miami. The park and lineup are a downgrade for him, but on the plus side, he will get everyday at bats Right now the price is fine, but if he continues to rise, I will likely begin to fade him.

Top 200 Players Falling

Cody Bellinger (-10.93)- I am actually a little surprised to see Bellinger dropping. He is coming off of a huge postseason where he hit .353/.436/.471 and usually there would be some helium from that. That being said, I am with the crowd here. Bellinger was atrocious in the regular season to the point that the Dodgers began to platoon him. The talent is still there, but it is so hard to pay a top 100 price even if he has top 10 upside. 

Adolis Garcia (-16.52)- Garcia’s drop isn’t surprising considering how he struggled in the second half. Garcia has power and speed, but the contact issues will lend to huge streaks. On the plus side, there is not much in terms of competition in Texas’ outfield so he should get plenty of run even when he struggles. He is a nice boom/bust player if he continues to drop in drafts. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Josh Rojas (+18.45)- Check this series article on shortstops. 

Seiya Suzuki (+77.23)- Clearly the price is rising due to the posting of Suzuki. I am excited for him too, but I learned my lesson with Sugano last season by drafting him before he signed and then getting burned when he didn’t. With the CBA up in the air, it wouldn’t surprise me if he stays another year in Japan. 

Enrique Hernandez (+21.93)- I think Hernandez’s rise has a lot to do with his huge postseason where he hit .408/.423/.837 with five home runs in 11 games. The problem is I don’t know where the added value comes from with him. He got 585 plate appearances and hit 20 home runs with a .250 average and one stolen base which feels about right. The multi-positional eligibility is great, but it’s a boring profile. 

Mark Canha (+15.32)- Canha’s rise comes from his signing a long term deal in New York. It is an interesting fit for him. The park change is pretty neutral, but I am a bit worried about where he hits in the lineup and whether he is going to be allowed to run as much if he is hitting sixth like Roster Resource has him projected to. 

Marcell Ozuna (+128.38)- Ozuna is rising after the news that his suspension will be counted as time served and he should be eligible to play at the beginning of the season. Considering he was a top 50-75 pick last year, it won’t be long before his price is inside to top 150-200. 

Max Kepler (+15.41)- I am a bit surprised that Kepler is rising, but I can’t be too surprised as I have already drafted him in my first two drafts of the season. Kepler is coming off of a season where he hit just .211, but in spite of that he did swat 19 home runs and steal 10 bases. He got unlucky on balls in play with a .225 BABIP and I expect that to rebound. I still like the price even if it goes up a little more. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Andrew Vaughn (-14.16)- Vaughn’s drop is a bit weird, but it is not out of the ordinary that the fantasy community devalues former top prospects if they don’t succeed right away. Vaughn struggled most of the season and really fell apart down the stretch. That being said, even with the struggles, he only struck out 21.5% of the time and there is power in the profile. He is not a huge target of mine, but I think there is some real upside in the bat. 

Kyle Lewis (-26.69)- There is no doubt about the talent with Lewis, it is all about health. Lewis had a setback late in the season and was never able to get back on the field. I love the talent, but until we see he is healthy, I am fading him.

Others of Note

Connor Joe (+19.65)- Who doesn’t like a good cup of Joe? Joe was great when he was on the field, hitting .285/.379/.469 with eight home runs in 211 plate appearances. As of right now, he is projected to have a full time role and lead off the Rockies. That being said, it is the Rockies and we can’t really trust them like we might another team. Joe is an interesting upside play because if he plays regularly, he could be a really big contributor and right now the price is great. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo (+149.46)- Tsutsugo’s rise is due to him resigning in Pittsburgh. While that might be a negative for some players, he was really good after landing with the Pirates. He has multi-positional eligibility, is projected to hit second and play everyday which makes him a gamble as long as he is going outside of the top 300 picks. 

Clint Frazier (129.09)- Frazier’s rise has everything to do with his move to Chicago where he is expected to compete for an every day role. The talent is apparent, but he has struggled to stay on the field and until we see that, it is hard to bank on him. 

 

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/31/21
11/15/21-12/31/21 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/21-11/14/21 Change
1.88 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 1.67 -0.21
3.88 Juan Soto WAS OF 3.61 -0.27
10.66 Bryce Harper PHI OF 12.11 1.45
11.91 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 12.83 0.92
12 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 12.67 0.67
15.09 Mookie Betts LAD OF 11.72 -3.37
15.44 Mike Trout LAA OF 15.44 0
18.49 Luis Robert CWS OF 18.78 0.29
28.37 Starling Marte NYM OF 27.61 -0.76
28.96 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 26.61 -2.35
30.62 Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 34 3.38
33.49 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 36.83 3.34
34.78 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF 36.39 1.61
41.57 Aaron Judge NYY OF 41.44 -0.13
50.34 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 52.44 2.1
57.01 George Springer TOR OF 55.11 -1.9
58 Randy Arozarena TB OF 56.94 -1.06
60.26 Nick Castellanos CIN OF 61.67 1.41
64.1 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 58.56 -5.54
66.84 Byron Buxton MIN OF 67.78 0.94
83.26 Tommy Edman STL 2B, OF 82.89 -0.37
84.37 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B, OF 83.72 -0.65
86.34 Kris Bryant SF 3B, OF 92.28 5.94
87.85 J.D. Martinez BOS OF 89.67 1.82
96.26 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 100.61 4.35
97.44 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 107.22 9.78
99.4 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 102.44 3.04
103.71 Cody Bellinger LAD OF 92.78 -10.93
104.41 Christian Yelich MLW OF 103.5 -0.91
107.71 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 106.28 -1.43
108.31 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B, OF 115.61 7.3
109.29 Jesse Winker CIN OF 106.33 -2.96
122.65 Kyle Schwarber BOS OF 122.61 -0.04
129.6 Trent Grisham SD OF 127 -2.6
132.78 Austin Meadows TB OF 129.39 -3.39
132.93 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 137.28 4.35
134.82 Myles Straw CLE OF 139.61 4.79
144.72 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 144.83 0.11
147.37 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, SS, OF 161 13.63
151.57 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 162.39 10.82
158.54 Dylan Carlson STL OF 154.78 -3.76
161.13 Akil Baddoo DET OF 167.06 5.93
162.19 Adolis Garcia TEX OF 145.67 -16.52
162.91 Eddie Rosario ATL OF 172.39 9.48
172.85 Alex Kirilloff MIN 1B, OF 178.17 5.32
174.93 Robbie Grossman DET OF 168.67 -6.26
176.29 Hunter Renfroe MLW OF 174.56 -1.73
177.88 Avisail Garcia MIA OF 192.5 14.62
185.54 Joey Gallo NYY OF 177.11 -8.43
187.25 Michael Conforto NYM OF 188.67 1.42
192.37 Ian Happ CHC OF 187.83 -4.54
194.5 Jorge Soler ATL OF 195.94 1.44
202.81 Andrew Benintendi KC OF 209.67 6.86
206.13 Austin Hays BAL OF 204 -2.13
220.99 Adam Duvall ATL OF 215.78 -5.21
221.15 AJ Pollock LAD OF 209.56 -11.59
225.21 Seiya Suzuki FA OF 302.44 77.23
225.79 Enrique Hernandez BOS 2B, OF 247.72 21.93
226.34 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 354.72 128.38
229.04 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 216.56 -12.48
230.22 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, SS, OF 248.67 18.45
231.1 Andrew Vaughn CWS OF 216.94 -14.16
238.1 Harrison Bader STL OF 251.72 13.62
238.53 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 227.06 -11.47
241.07 Jo Adell LAA OF 246.28 5.21
244.81 Anthony Santander BAL OF 249.67 4.86
246.97 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 254.61 7.64
252.07 Mark Canha NYM OF 267.39 15.32
252.9 Michael Brantley HOU OF 248.78 -4.12
264.79 Lane Thomas WAS OF 274.61 9.82
270.51 Tommy Pham SD OF 275.83 5.32
272.69 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 282.06 9.37
275.22 Raimel Tapia COL OF 277.94 2.72
276.37 Max Kepler MIN OF 291.78 15.41
279.04 Wil Myers SD OF 281.11 2.07
285.75 Kyle Lewis SEA OF 259.06 -26.69
287.03 Garrett Hampson COL 2B, OF 280.11 -6.92
288.37 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 279.78 -8.59
292.88 Eric Haase DET C, OF 265.11 -27.77
294.91 Vidal Brujan TB OF 281.33 -13.58
298.34 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 287.39 -10.95
300.01 Luis Arraez MIN 2B, 3B, OF 341.67 41.66
304.53 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 301.33 -3.2
307.16 Riley Greene DET OF 305.78 -1.38
314.41 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 294.56 -19.85
316.87 Rafael Ortega CHC OF 313.72 -3.15
335.96 Andrew McCutchen PHI OF 329.67 -6.29
345.66 Hunter Dozier KC 3B, OF 332.44 -13.22
348.28 Tyler Naquin CIN OF 346.06 -2.22
359.79 Sam Hilliard COL OF 349.28 -10.51
360.15 Randal Grichuk TOR OF 349.17 -10.98
364.29 Connor Joe COL OF 383.94 19.65
364.84 Pavin Smith ARZ 1B, OF 352 -12.84
378.51 Josh Harrison OAK 2B, 3B, OF 345.72 -32.79
378.65 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B, OF 528.11 149.46
385.57 Brandon Marsh LAA OF 335.22 -50.35
385.66 Manuel Margot TB OF 369 -16.66
394.84 Jorge Alfaro SD C, OF 395.61 0.77
395.96 Dominic Smith NYM OF 343.11 -52.85
403.51 Tony Kemp OAK 2B, OF 390.94 -12.57
406.12 Victor Robles WAS OF 347.5 -58.62
408.47 Clint Frazier CHC OF 537.56 129.09
415.25 Jarren Duran BOS OF 417.39 2.14
421.07 Willie Calhoun TEX OF 392.06 -29.01
421.25 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 405.61 -15.64
421.72 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, OF 387.06 -34.66
428.74 Joc Pederson ATL OF 389.06 -39.68
430.71 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 414.72 -15.99
431.31 Michael A. Taylor KC OF 411.33 -19.98
443.18 Jorge Mateo BAL OF 386.78 -56.4
453.44 Chas McCormick HOU OF 437.17 -16.27
454.04 Kole Calhoun TEX OF 574.22 120.18
459.22 Bryan De La Cruz MIA OF 399.06 -60.16
471.43 Nick Senzel CIN OF 464.17 -7.26
475.03 Darin Ruf SF 1B, OF 436.56 -38.47
476.76 Jurickson Profar SD 1B, OF 518.72 41.96
480.19 Tyler Wade LAA 3B, SS, OF 581.56 101.37
481.38 David Peralta ARZ OF 465.06 -16.32
483.56 Josh Lowe TB OF 385.06 -98.5
486.63 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 478.17 -8.46
496.57 Seth Brown OAK OF 534.22 37.65
510.49 Garrett Cooper MIA OF 460.11 -50.38
514.65 Bradley Zimmer CLE OF 467.17 -47.48
517.35 Leury Garcia CWS 2B, OF 580.5 63.15
518.09 Kyle Isbel KC OF 480.83 -37.26
538.75 Harold Ramirez CHC OF 545 6.25
541.43 Trevor Larnach MIN OF 481.28 -60.15
542.97 Leody Taveras TEX OF 487.72 -55.25
547.4 Austin Slater SF OF 501.33 -46.07
558.04 Justin Upton LAA OF 528.72 -29.32
560.44 Lars Nootbaar STL OF 591.33 30.89
564.68 Jose Siri HOU OF 559 -5.68
567.57 Nick Gordon MIN OF 515.72 -51.85
573.6 Brad Miller PHI 1B, OF 531 -42.6
577.69 Brennen Davis CHC OF 531.5 -46.19
577.88 Steven Kwan CLE OF 653.61 75.73
578.04 Jace Peterson MLW 1B, 2B, OF 608.61 30.57
588.1 Victor Reyes DET OF 622.83 34.73
588.56 Jake Meyers HOU OF 536.28 -52.28
594.79 Edward Olivares KC OF 547.56 -47.23
596.78 Alek Thomas ARZ OF 564.56 -32.22
598.37 Kevin Kiermaier TB OF 583.06 -15.31
609.31 Josh Naylor CLE OF 586.94 -22.37
611.9 Corey Dickerson TOR OF 564.11 -47.79
620.25 Yadiel Hernandez WAS OF 628.33 8.08
628.49 Matt Beaty LAD 1B, OF 633 4.51
630.07 Anthony Alford PIT OF 671.67 41.6
630.25 Phil Gosselin LAA 1B, 3B, OF 542.61 -87.64
632.5 Oscar Mercado CLE OF 600.28 -32.22
637.75 Matt Vierling PHI OF 642.78 5.03
638.65 Odubel Herrera PHI OF 571.89 -66.76
639.44 Chad Pinder OAK OF 672.94 33.5
641.5 Jackie Bradley Jr. BOS OF 694.67 53.17
644.12 Ben Gamel PIT OF 741.11 96.99
651.07 Jake Fraley SEA OF 578.06 -73.01
654.26 Mauricio Dubon SF 2B, SS, OF 576 -78.26
655.81 Alex Dickerson SF OF 588.78 -67.03
662.24 Cristian Pache ATL OF 650 -12.24
662.25 Kevin Pillar NYM OF 576.61 -85.64
669.09 Steven Duggar SF OF 659.17 -9.92
671.65 Zach McKinstry LAD 2B, OF 632.44 -39.21
672.85 Brett Phillips TB OF 644.89 -27.96
683.31 Jason Heyward CHC OF 679.67 -3.64
690.18 Lewis Brinson MIA OF 584.5 -105.68
692.04 Gregory Polanco PIT OF 628.94 -63.1
694.44 Yonathan Daza COL OF 702.33 7.89
696.38 Miguel Andujar NYY OF 659.78 -36.6
699.43 Adam Engel CWS OF NA NA
705.63 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 690.61 -15.02
708.88 Austin Martin TOR OF 668.06 -40.82
710.29 Stephen Piscotty OAK OF 720.72 10.43
714.97 Greg Allen PIT OF 647.11 -67.86
716.01 Nelson Velazquez CHC OF 709.22 -6.79
721.21 Heliot Ramos SF OF 689.11 -32.1
725.51 Taylor Ward LAA OF 709.61 -15.9
726.24 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 685.56 -40.68
726.82 Ryan Vilade COL OF 741.33 14.51
729.26 Scott Kingery PHI OF 740.94 11.68
729.68 Pedro Leon FA OF 694.11 -35.57
730.82 Daz Cameron DET OF 708.22 -22.6
733.31 Brent Rooker MIN OF 673.78 -59.53
734.1 TJ Friedl CIN OF 744.17 10.07
735.78 DJ Stewart BAL OF NA NA
736.1 Jake McCarthy ARZ OF 722.78 -13.32
738.65 Andrew Stevenson WAS OF 734.89 -3.76
738.97 Jordan Luplow ARZ OF 724 -14.97
739.49 Drew Waters ATL OF 688.33 -51.16
740.04 Derek Hill DET OF 697.61 -42.43
740.9 Brian Goodwin CWS OF 734.83 -6.07
741.88 David Dahl TEX OF 726.61 -15.27
741.93 Billy McKinney TEX OF 745.28 3.35
741.97 Jake Bauers SEA 1B, OF 746.11 4.14
742.29 Brett Gardner NYY OF 729.11 -13.18
742.44 Shin-Soo Choo FA OF NA NA
742.76 Orlando Arcia ATL OF 750.06 7.3
743.51 Ryan O’Hearn KC 1B, OF 733.22 -10.29
744.21 Jared Oliva PIT OF 731.06 -13.15
745.63 Max Schrock CIN OF 698.83 -46.8
746.22 Michael Hermosillo CHC OF 750.22 4
746.51 Cooper Hummel ARZ OF 746.39 -0.12
746.53 Khalil Lee NYM OF 739.28 -7.25
746.62 Franchy Cordero BOS OF 734.5 -12.12
746.72 Tim Locastro BOS OF 739.89 -6.83
746.94 Mickey Moniak PHI OF 749.5 2.56
747.46 Corey Ray MLW OF NA NA
747.75 Shogo Akiyama CIN OF NA NA
748.16 Ender Inciarte CIN OF NA NA
748.37 Jarrod Dyson TOR OF NA NA
749.1 Tyler Nevin BAL OF 741 -8.1
749.24 Zac Veen FA OF 725.72 -23.52
749.37 Kyle Stowers FA OF NA NA
749.54 Magneuris Sierra MIA OF 743.28 -6.26
749.71 Billy Hamilton CWS OF 743.11 -6.6
749.76 Adam Haseley PHI OF NA NA
750.03 Travis Demeritte ATL OF 744.06 -5.97
750.03 Gilberto Celestino MIN OF NA NA
750.41 Shed Long Jr. SEA OF NA NA
750.51 Luis Barrera OAK OF NA NA
750.54 Adam Eaton LAA OF 665.28 -85.26
750.56 Estevan Florial NYY OF 730.11 -20.45
750.69 Monte Harrison MIA OF NA NA
750.76 Jake Lamb TOR OF 749.61 -1.15
750.78 Mallex Smith SEA OF 727.5 -23.28
750.78 Ehire Adrianza ATL OF NA NA
750.82 Chris Owings COL OF 747.61 -3.21
750.82 Alfonso Rivas CHC OF 749.78 -1.04
750.84 Josh Reddick ARZ OF NA NA
750.84 Nomar Mazara DET OF NA NA
NA DJ Stewart BAL OF 736.67 #VALUE!
NA Stuart Fairchild ARZ OF 742.56 #VALUE!
NA Roman Quinn PHI OF 743.89 #VALUE!
NA Trayce Thompson CHC OF 746.22 #VALUE!
NA Henry Ramos ARZ OF 747.17 #VALUE!
NA Danny Santana BOS OF 747.72 #VALUE!
NA Delino DeShields CIN OF 749.17 #VALUE!
NA Jake Cave MIN OF 749.67 #VALUE!
NA Jake Marisnick SD OF 749.78 #VALUE!
NA Guillermo Heredia ATL OF 750.06 #VALUE!
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
Positional eligibility and ADP are based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues.





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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dl80
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dl80

Justin, these are really helpful and I appreciate them a lot. That said, I would disagree that Jimenez is someone with a “good average.” He ran an elevated BABIP in 2020 that didn’t come with any real improvements (faster speed, more line drives, fewer infield flies). He did have a slightly lower pull percentage, so maybe he hit groundballs into the shift a bit less?

Otherwise, outside of that anomalous season, he has had a career .260ish average. It’s fine, but certainly not “good.”

The power is definitely there, and there may be some improvements with a return to full health, but I wouldn’t bet on any more .290 averages. If anything, he has slowed even more, with his SPD score dropping to 355 out of 362 hitters with more than 200 plate appearances. And 253 out of 557 in Statcast HP to 1B time. So he’s not likely to get many additional infield hits.

CC AFC
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CC AFC

League average the last two years was .245 and .244 and there were only 23 qualified hitters who hit .290, the vast majority of whom are not power hitters comparable to Eloy. So, I guess it depends how you define “good,” but I’d call it good if he hits .260 or above.

dl80
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dl80

That’s a good point. I find it hard to recalibrate my idea about what is average in the new environment. Fair point though. If he hits .260ish with upside for .290, that probably does qualify as “good” now.