For my last few articles, I’ve been focusing on how some pitcher value changes based on the innings thrown per start. Today I’m going to examine the pitchers who go long into starts but could be landmines for their owners.
Just for reminder, I’m highlighting the pitchers who go longer into games because I expect the second Spring Training to be shorter than normal. Pitchers won’t be stretched out to start the season. Also, the games will be condensed with some starters in piggy-back situations as managers need to pull out all the stops to win games. While most of the pitchers who go long into games will be helpful, I found a few starters who I can’t recommend.
The following starters are in the top-300 in NFBC ADP and the stats are combined from the past three seasons.
Here are some pitchers whose innings per start won’t be enough to help their value.
• Marcus Stroman and Masahiro Tanaka: I believe both pitchers are perfectly fine to roster, but Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas are going about 100 picks later and have similar projections.
Veteran Starters Comparison
| Name |
K/9 |
ERA |
WHIP |
ADP |
| Mikolas |
7.2 |
4.12 |
1.24 |
287 |
| Keuchel |
7.2 |
4.30 |
1.37 |
286 |
| Stroman |
7.3 |
3.80 |
1.31 |
207 |
| Tanaka |
8.0 |
4.45 |
1.26 |
207 |
SOURCE: Depth Chart Projections
If an owner needs a steady boring vet, don’t pay up and grab the last available of these four.
• Sandy Alcantara: The 24-year-old righty was 17th in innings pitched last season. Even with all those innings, he had barely any value. He won just six games. He did have 151 strikeouts which were good for 57th overall. He didn’t get hit around too bad keeping his ERA under 4.00. His projections have him taking a major step backward (4.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) and 190 innings of his projected ratios could be devastating. I’ll let someone else handle that time bomb.
• Sean Manaea: I’m a little surprised to see Manaea so high. I’ll continue to doubt him until he finds some way to stay healthy. His five September starts provided some helium, but career stats (7.3 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.77 ERA) are in line with the four aging vets profiled earlier.
• Carlos Martinez: Whenever Martinez has started over the past few seasons, he’s gone long into games. The problem is that he’s just started 50 games with more games as a reliever. I have no faith he can stay healthy through a shortened 2020 season and will head to the bullpen … again. Since his role will change, it’s tough for me to invest an 11th round pick on an unknown role. At that point in the draft, I need to know if I’m adding a starter or reliever.
• Corey Kluber: I just think he may be done. His Spring Training velocities have him at or under his 2019 fastball speeds. I could not find any other information from Spring Training so I decided to compare his NFBC ADP to see his draft position jumped. Maybe others knew more than I did. In February’s online championships, he averaging pick 102. It jumped to 90 in March. Owners seem to believe in as Spring Training progressed. I’m not one of them but there will be a second chance to evaluate him to see who’s right.
• David Price: Part of the allure around Price is that he goes long into games to accumulate bulk strikeouts. Since he’s now on the Dodgers, I’m not sure. The Dodgers have curtailed Kershaw’s innings so they’ll do the same with Price.
