Innings Per Start Analysis: Fool’s Gold by Jeff Zimmerman May 8, 2020 For my last few articles, I’ve been focusing on how some pitcher value changes based on the innings thrown per start. Today I’m going to examine the pitchers who go long into starts but could be landmines for their owners. Just for reminder, I’m highlighting the pitchers who go longer into games because I expect the second Spring Training to be shorter than normal. Pitchers won’t be stretched out to start the season. Also, the games will be condensed with some starters in piggy-back situations as managers need to pull out all the stops to win games. While most of the pitchers who go long into games will be helpful, I found a few starters who I can’t recommend. The following starters are in the top-300 in NFBC ADP and the stats are combined from the past three seasons. Length of Starts Name G GS IP IP/G Threw 90 Pitches 100 Pitches Reached 5 IP 5 IP/G 5 IP/GS 6 IP/GS Reached 6 IP ADP Gerrit Cole 98 98 616 6.3 93 63 95 97% 97% 79% 77 6 Jacob deGrom 95 95 622 6.6 86 70 88 93% 93% 83% 79 7 Walker Buehler 62 53 329 5.3 41 16 48 77% 91% 60% 32 12 Max Scherzer 91 91 594 6.5 84 68 86 95% 95% 85% 77 16 Justin Verlander 101 101 643 6.4 95 72 96 95% 95% 81% 82 20 Jack Flaherty 67 66 369 5.5 41 23 53 79% 80% 48% 32 22 Shane Bieber 54 52 329 6.1 40 28 48 89% 92% 71% 37 26 Mike Clevinger 80 74 448 5.6 62 41 64 80% 86% 66% 49 27 Stephen Strasburg 83 83 514 6.2 75 52 75 90% 90% 76% 63 28 Chris Sale 84 84 520 6.2 73 54 73 87% 87% 70% 59 35 Clayton Kershaw 82 81 515 6.3 59 25 75 91% 93% 86% 70 37 Luis Castillo 78 78 450 5.8 54 35 68 87% 87% 56% 44 40 Blake Snell 78 78 417 5.3 50 34 60 77% 77% 50% 39 44 Patrick Corbin 99 98 592 6.0 81 41 88 89% 90% 70% 69 45 Chris Paddack 26 26 141 5.4 11 0 20 77% 77% 38% 10 49 Lucas Giolito 68 68 395 5.8 54 35 58 85% 85% 65% 44 50 Yu Darvish 70 70 405 5.8 49 24 57 81% 81% 59% 41 53 Charlie Morton 88 88 508 5.8 63 33 78 89% 89% 60% 53 54 Aaron Nola 94 94 583 6.2 78 47 87 93% 93% 71% 67 57 Zack Greinke 98 98 619 6.3 83 39 91 93% 93% 78% 76 61 Tyler Glasnow 72 36 234 3.3 13 4 23 32% 64% 36% 13 61 Jose Berrios 90 89 538 6.0 71 36 75 83% 84% 63% 56 75 Brandon Woodruff 49 34 207 4.2 24 6 24 49% 71% 44% 15 78 Trevor Bauer 94 92 565 6.0 82 75 78 83% 85% 68% 63 80 Sonny Gray 88 81 468 5.3 51 29 64 73% 79% 56% 45 95 Frankie Montas 52 27 193 3.7 16 4 23 44% 85% 67% 18 100 Corey Kluber 69 69 454 6.6 55 36 62 90% 90% 80% 55 101 Mike Soroka 34 34 200 5.9 16 5 28 82% 82% 65% 22 104 James Paxton 81 81 447 5.5 59 39 61 75% 75% 54% 44 119 Zack Wheeler 77 77 464 6.0 64 41 67 87% 87% 69% 53 120 Lance Lynn 97 95 551 5.7 80 58 83 86% 87% 58% 55 121 Dinelson Lamet 35 35 187 5.4 17 6 29 83% 83% 40% 14 122 Zac Gallen 15 15 80 5.3 12 5 13 87% 87% 33% 5 123 Julio Urias 45 13 107 2.4 3 0 6 13% 46% 15% 2 126 Madison Bumgarner 72 72 448 6.2 59 34 69 96% 96% 79% 57 130 Max Fried 56 39 225 4.0 16 4 31 55% 79% 38% 15 135 Eduardo Rodriguez 86 81 470 5.5 69 49 71 83% 88% 53% 43 137 Carlos Carrasco 87 74 472 5.4 55 33 63 72% 85% 66% 49 139 David Price 68 63 358 5.3 45 21 52 76% 83% 59% 37 139 Hyun-Jin Ryu 69 68 392 5.7 36 14 52 75% 76% 57% 39 146 Kyle Hendricks 87 87 516 5.9 56 22 75 86% 86% 57% 50 153 Robbie Ray 85 85 460 5.4 71 41 69 81% 81% 46% 39 158 Matthew Boyd 89 88 491 5.5 67 30 69 78% 78% 59% 52 158 Kenta Maeda 105 71 413 3.9 26 9 51 49% 72% 32% 23 162 Carlos Martinez 113 50 372 3.3 41 20 44 39% 88% 64% 32 167 Lance McCullers Jr. 47 44 247 5.3 34 10 32 68% 73% 50% 22 172 German Marquez 90 90 532 5.9 65 26 76 84% 84% 64% 58 176 Mike Minor 125 60 443 3.5 50 28 54 43% 90% 62% 37 177 Ian Kennedy 115 52 337 2.9 35 17 38 33% 73% 46% 24 182 Sean Manaea 61 61 349 5.7 34 13 52 85% 85% 57% 35 183 Jake Odorizzi 90 90 467 5.2 70 36 66 73% 73% 37% 33 185 Luis Severino 66 66 397 6.0 52 34 58 88% 88% 61% 40 194 Jose Urquidy 9 7 41 4.6 1 0 4 44% 57% 43% 3 195 Luke Weaver 55 47 261 4.7 30 10 33 60% 70% 38% 18 197 Andrew Heaney 53 53 297 5.6 35 14 43 81% 81% 51% 27 202 Mike Foltynewicz 81 80 454 5.6 57 36 64 79% 80% 51% 41 204 Marcus Stroman 84 84 488 5.8 64 29 66 79% 79% 57% 48 207 Masahiro Tanaka 89 88 516 5.8 47 23 71 80% 81% 63% 55 207 Dylan Bundy 89 89 503 5.7 70 30 73 82% 82% 54% 48 213 Joe Musgrove 89 65 395 4.4 28 9 51 57% 78% 55% 36 216 Joshua James 55 4 84 1.5 1 0 3 5% 75% 0% 0 221 Mitch Keller 11 11 48 4.4 8 0 6 55% 55% 9% 1 228 Adrian Houser 42 18 125 3.0 4 0 9 21% 50% 17% 3 229 Ryan Yarbrough 66 20 289 4.4 18 4 30 45% 80% 55% 16 234 Caleb Smith 53 46 249 4.7 27 17 34 64% 74% 39% 18 234 Anthony DeSclafani 52 52 282 5.4 19 5 39 75% 75% 38% 20 247 Joey Lucchesi 56 56 294 5.2 22 7 43 77% 77% 32% 18 248 Jon Gray 77 76 433 5.6 52 21 61 79% 80% 55% 42 248 Garrett Richards 25 25 113 4.5 8 4 14 56% 56% 20% 5 248 Chris Archer 84 84 469 5.6 67 40 70 83% 83% 58% 49 251 Aaron Civale 10 10 58 5.8 4 0 9 90% 90% 60% 6 252 Alex Wood 67 59 340 5.1 27 5 49 73% 83% 56% 33 252 Sandy Alcantara 46 38 240 5.2 32 10 34 74% 89% 58% 22 266 Michael Kopech 4 4 14 3.6 0 0 1 25% 25% 25% 1 270 Yonny Chirinos 44 25 223 5.1 12 5 30 68% 80% 44% 14 274 Rich Hill 63 62 327 5.2 33 7 49 78% 79% 45% 28 277 Dylan Cease 14 14 73 5.2 12 7 12 86% 86% 43% 6 278 Steven Matz 75 73 381 5.1 45 25 54 72% 74% 47% 34 283 Dallas Keuchel 76 76 463 6.1 62 33 70 92% 92% 70% 53 286 Miles Mikolas 64 64 385 6.0 44 13 58 91% 91% 66% 42 287 Dustin May 14 4 35 2.5 2 0 4 29% 100% 0% 0 295 Jordan Montgomery 37 36 187 5.0 17 5 25 68% 69% 39% 14 296 Cole Hamels 83 83 480 5.8 66 29 69 83% 83% 60% 50 297 Here are some pitchers whose innings per start won’t be enough to help their value. • Marcus Stroman and Masahiro Tanaka: I believe both pitchers are perfectly fine to roster, but Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas are going about 100 picks later and have similar projections. Veteran Starters Comparison Name K/9 ERA WHIP ADP Mikolas 7.2 4.12 1.24 287 Keuchel 7.2 4.30 1.37 286 Stroman 7.3 3.80 1.31 207 Tanaka 8.0 4.45 1.26 207 SOURCE: Depth Chart Projections If an owner needs a steady boring vet, don’t pay up and grab the last available of these four. • Sandy Alcantara: The 24-year-old righty was 17th in innings pitched last season. Even with all those innings, he had barely any value. He won just six games. He did have 151 strikeouts which were good for 57th overall. He didn’t get hit around too bad keeping his ERA under 4.00. His projections have him taking a major step backward (4.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) and 190 innings of his projected ratios could be devastating. I’ll let someone else handle that time bomb. • Sean Manaea: I’m a little surprised to see Manaea so high. I’ll continue to doubt him until he finds some way to stay healthy. His five September starts provided some helium, but career stats (7.3 K/9, 1.20 WHIP, and 3.77 ERA) are in line with the four aging vets profiled earlier. • Carlos Martinez: Whenever Martinez has started over the past few seasons, he’s gone long into games. The problem is that he’s just started 50 games with more games as a reliever. I have no faith he can stay healthy through a shortened 2020 season and will head to the bullpen … again. Since his role will change, it’s tough for me to invest an 11th round pick on an unknown role. At that point in the draft, I need to know if I’m adding a starter or reliever. • Corey Kluber: I just think he may be done. His Spring Training velocities have him at or under his 2019 fastball speeds. I could not find any other information from Spring Training so I decided to compare his NFBC ADP to see his draft position jumped. Maybe others knew more than I did. In February’s online championships, he averaging pick 102. It jumped to 90 in March. Owners seem to believe in as Spring Training progressed. I’m not one of them but there will be a second chance to evaluate him to see who’s right. • David Price: Part of the allure around Price is that he goes long into games to accumulate bulk strikeouts. Since he’s now on the Dodgers, I’m not sure. The Dodgers have curtailed Kershaw’s innings so they’ll do the same with Price.