Innings Per Start Analysis: Late Bargains
On Monday, I started a dive into which pitchers owners might want to stay away from because the pitchers don’t go far into games, limiting their chances for that all-important Win. Today, I’m going to focus on those late picks who are talented and could immediately take on a full-inning workload.
Just for reminder, I’m targeting these pitchers who go longer into games because I expect the second Spring Training to be shorter than normal. Pitchers won’t be stretched out to start the season. Also, the games will be condensed with some starters in piggy-back situations as managers need to pull out all the stops to win games.
The following starters are in the top-300 in NFBC ADP and the stats are combined from the past three seasons.
Name | G | GS | IP | IP/G | Threw 90 Pitches | 100 Pitches | Reached 5 IP | 5 IP/G | 5 IP/GS | 6 IP/GS | Reached 6 IP | ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gerrit Cole | 98 | 98 | 616 | 6.3 | 93 | 63 | 95 | 97% | 97% | 79% | 77 | 6 |
Jacob deGrom | 95 | 95 | 622 | 6.6 | 86 | 70 | 88 | 93% | 93% | 83% | 79 | 7 |
Walker Buehler | 62 | 53 | 329 | 5.3 | 41 | 16 | 48 | 77% | 91% | 60% | 32 | 12 |
Max Scherzer | 91 | 91 | 594 | 6.5 | 84 | 68 | 86 | 95% | 95% | 85% | 77 | 16 |
Justin Verlander | 101 | 101 | 643 | 6.4 | 95 | 72 | 96 | 95% | 95% | 81% | 82 | 20 |
Jack Flaherty | 67 | 66 | 369 | 5.5 | 41 | 23 | 53 | 79% | 80% | 48% | 32 | 22 |
Shane Bieber | 54 | 52 | 329 | 6.1 | 40 | 28 | 48 | 89% | 92% | 71% | 37 | 26 |
Mike Clevinger | 80 | 74 | 448 | 5.6 | 62 | 41 | 64 | 80% | 86% | 66% | 49 | 27 |
Stephen Strasburg | 83 | 83 | 514 | 6.2 | 75 | 52 | 75 | 90% | 90% | 76% | 63 | 28 |
Chris Sale | 84 | 84 | 520 | 6.2 | 73 | 54 | 73 | 87% | 87% | 70% | 59 | 35 |
Clayton Kershaw | 82 | 81 | 515 | 6.3 | 59 | 25 | 75 | 91% | 93% | 86% | 70 | 37 |
Luis Castillo | 78 | 78 | 450 | 5.8 | 54 | 35 | 68 | 87% | 87% | 56% | 44 | 40 |
Blake Snell | 78 | 78 | 417 | 5.3 | 50 | 34 | 60 | 77% | 77% | 50% | 39 | 44 |
Patrick Corbin | 99 | 98 | 592 | 6.0 | 81 | 41 | 88 | 89% | 90% | 70% | 69 | 45 |
Chris Paddack | 26 | 26 | 141 | 5.4 | 11 | 0 | 20 | 77% | 77% | 38% | 10 | 49 |
Lucas Giolito | 68 | 68 | 395 | 5.8 | 54 | 35 | 58 | 85% | 85% | 65% | 44 | 50 |
Yu Darvish | 70 | 70 | 405 | 5.8 | 49 | 24 | 57 | 81% | 81% | 59% | 41 | 53 |
Charlie Morton | 88 | 88 | 508 | 5.8 | 63 | 33 | 78 | 89% | 89% | 60% | 53 | 54 |
Aaron Nola | 94 | 94 | 583 | 6.2 | 78 | 47 | 87 | 93% | 93% | 71% | 67 | 57 |
Zack Greinke | 98 | 98 | 619 | 6.3 | 83 | 39 | 91 | 93% | 93% | 78% | 76 | 61 |
Tyler Glasnow | 72 | 36 | 234 | 3.3 | 13 | 4 | 23 | 32% | 64% | 36% | 13 | 61 |
Jose Berrios | 90 | 89 | 538 | 6.0 | 71 | 36 | 75 | 83% | 84% | 63% | 56 | 75 |
Brandon Woodruff | 49 | 34 | 207 | 4.2 | 24 | 6 | 24 | 49% | 71% | 44% | 15 | 78 |
Trevor Bauer | 94 | 92 | 565 | 6.0 | 82 | 75 | 78 | 83% | 85% | 68% | 63 | 80 |
Sonny Gray | 88 | 81 | 468 | 5.3 | 51 | 29 | 64 | 73% | 79% | 56% | 45 | 95 |
Frankie Montas | 52 | 27 | 193 | 3.7 | 16 | 4 | 23 | 44% | 85% | 67% | 18 | 100 |
Corey Kluber | 69 | 69 | 454 | 6.6 | 55 | 36 | 62 | 90% | 90% | 80% | 55 | 101 |
Mike Soroka | 34 | 34 | 200 | 5.9 | 16 | 5 | 28 | 82% | 82% | 65% | 22 | 104 |
James Paxton | 81 | 81 | 447 | 5.5 | 59 | 39 | 61 | 75% | 75% | 54% | 44 | 119 |
Zack Wheeler | 77 | 77 | 464 | 6.0 | 64 | 41 | 67 | 87% | 87% | 69% | 53 | 120 |
Lance Lynn | 97 | 95 | 551 | 5.7 | 80 | 58 | 83 | 86% | 87% | 58% | 55 | 121 |
Dinelson Lamet | 35 | 35 | 187 | 5.4 | 17 | 6 | 29 | 83% | 83% | 40% | 14 | 122 |
Zac Gallen | 15 | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 87% | 87% | 33% | 5 | 123 |
Julio Urias | 45 | 13 | 107 | 2.4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13% | 46% | 15% | 2 | 126 |
Madison Bumgarner | 72 | 72 | 448 | 6.2 | 59 | 34 | 69 | 96% | 96% | 79% | 57 | 130 |
Max Fried | 56 | 39 | 225 | 4.0 | 16 | 4 | 31 | 55% | 79% | 38% | 15 | 135 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 86 | 81 | 470 | 5.5 | 69 | 49 | 71 | 83% | 88% | 53% | 43 | 137 |
Carlos Carrasco | 87 | 74 | 472 | 5.4 | 55 | 33 | 63 | 72% | 85% | 66% | 49 | 139 |
David Price | 68 | 63 | 358 | 5.3 | 45 | 21 | 52 | 76% | 83% | 59% | 37 | 139 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | 69 | 68 | 392 | 5.7 | 36 | 14 | 52 | 75% | 76% | 57% | 39 | 146 |
Kyle Hendricks | 87 | 87 | 516 | 5.9 | 56 | 22 | 75 | 86% | 86% | 57% | 50 | 153 |
Robbie Ray | 85 | 85 | 460 | 5.4 | 71 | 41 | 69 | 81% | 81% | 46% | 39 | 158 |
Matthew Boyd | 89 | 88 | 491 | 5.5 | 67 | 30 | 69 | 78% | 78% | 59% | 52 | 158 |
Kenta Maeda | 105 | 71 | 413 | 3.9 | 26 | 9 | 51 | 49% | 72% | 32% | 23 | 162 |
Carlos Martinez | 113 | 50 | 372 | 3.3 | 41 | 20 | 44 | 39% | 88% | 64% | 32 | 167 |
Lance McCullers Jr. | 47 | 44 | 247 | 5.3 | 34 | 10 | 32 | 68% | 73% | 50% | 22 | 172 |
German Marquez | 90 | 90 | 532 | 5.9 | 65 | 26 | 76 | 84% | 84% | 64% | 58 | 176 |
Mike Minor | 125 | 60 | 443 | 3.5 | 50 | 28 | 54 | 43% | 90% | 62% | 37 | 177 |
Ian Kennedy | 115 | 52 | 337 | 2.9 | 35 | 17 | 38 | 33% | 73% | 46% | 24 | 182 |
Sean Manaea | 61 | 61 | 349 | 5.7 | 34 | 13 | 52 | 85% | 85% | 57% | 35 | 183 |
Jake Odorizzi | 90 | 90 | 467 | 5.2 | 70 | 36 | 66 | 73% | 73% | 37% | 33 | 185 |
Luis Severino | 66 | 66 | 397 | 6.0 | 52 | 34 | 58 | 88% | 88% | 61% | 40 | 194 |
Jose Urquidy | 9 | 7 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 44% | 57% | 43% | 3 | 195 |
Luke Weaver | 55 | 47 | 261 | 4.7 | 30 | 10 | 33 | 60% | 70% | 38% | 18 | 197 |
Andrew Heaney | 53 | 53 | 297 | 5.6 | 35 | 14 | 43 | 81% | 81% | 51% | 27 | 202 |
Mike Foltynewicz | 81 | 80 | 454 | 5.6 | 57 | 36 | 64 | 79% | 80% | 51% | 41 | 204 |
Marcus Stroman | 84 | 84 | 488 | 5.8 | 64 | 29 | 66 | 79% | 79% | 57% | 48 | 207 |
Masahiro Tanaka | 89 | 88 | 516 | 5.8 | 47 | 23 | 71 | 80% | 81% | 63% | 55 | 207 |
Dylan Bundy | 89 | 89 | 503 | 5.7 | 70 | 30 | 73 | 82% | 82% | 54% | 48 | 213 |
Joe Musgrove | 89 | 65 | 395 | 4.4 | 28 | 9 | 51 | 57% | 78% | 55% | 36 | 216 |
Joshua James | 55 | 4 | 84 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5% | 75% | 0% | 0 | 221 |
Mitch Keller | 11 | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 55% | 55% | 9% | 1 | 228 |
Adrian Houser | 42 | 18 | 125 | 3.0 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 21% | 50% | 17% | 3 | 229 |
Ryan Yarbrough | 66 | 20 | 289 | 4.4 | 18 | 4 | 30 | 45% | 80% | 55% | 16 | 234 |
Caleb Smith | 53 | 46 | 249 | 4.7 | 27 | 17 | 34 | 64% | 74% | 39% | 18 | 234 |
Anthony DeSclafani | 52 | 52 | 282 | 5.4 | 19 | 5 | 39 | 75% | 75% | 38% | 20 | 247 |
Joey Lucchesi | 56 | 56 | 294 | 5.2 | 22 | 7 | 43 | 77% | 77% | 32% | 18 | 248 |
Jon Gray | 77 | 76 | 433 | 5.6 | 52 | 21 | 61 | 79% | 80% | 55% | 42 | 248 |
Garrett Richards | 25 | 25 | 113 | 4.5 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 56% | 56% | 20% | 5 | 248 |
Chris Archer | 84 | 84 | 469 | 5.6 | 67 | 40 | 70 | 83% | 83% | 58% | 49 | 251 |
Aaron Civale | 10 | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 90% | 90% | 60% | 6 | 252 |
Alex Wood | 67 | 59 | 340 | 5.1 | 27 | 5 | 49 | 73% | 83% | 56% | 33 | 252 |
Sandy Alcantara | 46 | 38 | 240 | 5.2 | 32 | 10 | 34 | 74% | 89% | 58% | 22 | 266 |
Michael Kopech | 4 | 4 | 14 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 1 | 270 |
Yonny Chirinos | 44 | 25 | 223 | 5.1 | 12 | 5 | 30 | 68% | 80% | 44% | 14 | 274 |
Rich Hill | 63 | 62 | 327 | 5.2 | 33 | 7 | 49 | 78% | 79% | 45% | 28 | 277 |
Dylan Cease | 14 | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 86% | 86% | 43% | 6 | 278 |
Steven Matz | 75 | 73 | 381 | 5.1 | 45 | 25 | 54 | 72% | 74% | 47% | 34 | 283 |
Dallas Keuchel | 76 | 76 | 463 | 6.1 | 62 | 33 | 70 | 92% | 92% | 70% | 53 | 286 |
Miles Mikolas | 64 | 64 | 385 | 6.0 | 44 | 13 | 58 | 91% | 91% | 66% | 42 | 287 |
Dustin May | 14 | 4 | 35 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 29% | 100% | 0% | 0 | 295 |
Jordan Montgomery | 37 | 36 | 187 | 5.0 | 17 | 5 | 25 | 68% | 69% | 39% | 14 | 296 |
Cole Hamels | 83 | 83 | 480 | 5.8 | 66 | 29 | 69 | 83% | 83% | 60% | 50 | 297 |
Here are some starters who have the combination of talent and the ability to go long into each start.
- Dallas Keuchel and Miles Mikolas: Both are late-round buys who will provide help with Wins and WHIP. Depending on the league’s depth, they could help with ERA and strikeouts (from innings pitched). They’re solid enough for owners to at least start them 75% of the time with little cost. Also, they make for perfect drops once other starters break out.
- Aaron Civale: I was a Civale fan even before seeing his 90% rate for reaching five innings. While his 2.34 screams regression (4.61 xFIP and 4.74 SIERA), his pitch mix should limit solid contact. His sinker and change generate groundballs and the cutter, slider, and curve are popup pitches. Additionally, the cutter, slider, curve, and change all have swinging-strike rates over 12%.
- Jon Gray and German Marquez: Both of their perceived value could skyrocket up if they don’t have to pitch in Coors. They’ve been able to throw fairly deep into games even when pitching half their games in thin air.
- Dylan Bundy: I’ve been all-in with Bundy and now knowing he goes long into starts just makes me want him more. In Baltimore, he was pitching in a small park with no support so the potential talent was hidden. He’s starting to get some helium. I like how he adjusted mid-season to get more groundballs once the juiced ball was obviously in play with his HR/9 dropped from 2.0 to 1.1. He just needs to continue to keep the home runs in check with the Angels.
- Mike Minor: Last season, Minor got back to a fulltime starter’s role and thrived. While some BABIP regression might be expected, the 2019 value (.287) matches his career value. The biggest reason for the turnaround was featuring his high-whiff change (16% SwStr%) instead of his slider (9% SwStr%). A decent pitcher who goes late into games, sign me up.
- Kyle Hendricks: He just a great source for WHIP, ERA, and Wins. I expect his results will continue into 2020 especially since he can immediately go deep into games.
- Eduardo Rodriguez: I see Rodriguez as a polarizing player with few experts expecting him to repeat his 2019 season. The holdback hasn’t been the results. They’ve been steady for three seasons. It’s the 203 IP which was a career-high by over 65 innings. The 26-year-old made 11 starts in 2017 and 19 in 2018 before going on the IL. With the shortened season, he should be useful. Also, over the past three seasons, he’s pitched the 36th most innings (470) ahead of Luis Castillo, Mike Clevinger, and Corey Kluber. I’m fine rostering Rodriguez.
- Madison Bumgarner: Mad Bum has seen his declining strikeout rate drop him from the top starter tier. His 8.8 K/9 isn’t elite but when throwing over 200 innings, the strikeouts add up and he posted the 22nd highest total last season.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Please note, comment areas are active for a much shorter span of time than I have available to do something reasonably quantitative or thorough; I had to take short cuts.
With so much uncertainty, wanted
(1) to identify high IP per start SPs that also offered a strong strikeout moat. I cross-referenced IP / GS in the 2019 starter leaderboard (arbitrary 100 IP min) by K-BB%. Also arbitrarily, I highlighted SPs in the top 3rd of K-BB%.
• To no surprise, almost ¾’s of the 24 SP with >6 IP / GS had a K-BB% in the top 3rd of SPs. Soroka and Minor are the most conspicuous absences.
• Another 17 SPs had at least 5.75 IP / start (but less than 6 IP / start). 65% (11) of these were not in the top third for K-BB%. Castillo, Flaherty, Morton, Sale, Boyd, and Darvish are the dual qualifiers.
• 21 SPs had at least 5.5 IP / start (but less than 5.75 IP / start). Four of these were in the top 33% for K-BB%: (Sonny) Gray, Pineda, German, and Woodruff are the dual qualifiers.
(2) Consider the possibility of play in FL and AZ. I haven’t searched for relevant park factors, but I am concerned that park dimensions, potentially limited foul ball territory, and climate factors will be challenging for pitchers. Especially in AZ, where the Diamondbacks had to install a humidor. To IP/GS and K-BB%, I also cross-referenced GB % and Hard Hit %. I highlighted GB% > 50%, and a second set of SPs in the range of 45% to 50% GB%. [37% of SPs qualify across both levels.] Similarly, I highlighted HH% in three ranges, 41.5%). Findings:
• IP/GS >6, and highlighted at any level in all of K-BB%, GB%, HH%: Strasburg (almost earned highest ratings in all categories), Greinke, Ryu, Corbin
• IP/GS between 5.5 and 6, and highlighted at any level in all of K-BB%, GB%, HH%: Morton, Darvish
• IP/GS between 5 and 5.5, and highlighted at any level in all of K-BB%, GB%, HH%: None
• IP/GS > 5.5, top 33% K-BB%, highlighted for one of K-BB% or GB%, and neither GB% or HH% in the bottom level: Cole, DeGrom, Scherzer, Marquez, Clevinger, Castillo, Sale, S Gray, Woodruff. Listed in order of highest IP / GS.
• IP/GS > 5.5, top 33% K-BB%, but in the bottom level in both GB% and HH%: Verlander, Bumgarner