ADP Draft: Rounds Five to Eight

After setting up the parameters in my last article and running through the first four rounds of the draft, it’s time for another four rounds of pitting the various ADP systems against each other.

I might as well dive in and here are the picks.

Draft Picks in Order (Rounds 5 to 8)
Round Team Player
5 Fantrax 1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
5 Yahoo 1 Chris Paddack
5 NFBC 1 J.T. Realmuto
5 RTS 1 Charlie Morton
5 ESPN 1 Josh Bell
5 AVG 1 DJ LeMahieu
5 CBS 1 Tyler Glasnow
5 CBS 2 Jorge Soler
5 AVG 2 Eloy Jiménez
5 ESPN 2 Joey Gallo
5 RTS 2 Kirby Yates
5 NFBC 2 Yu Darvish
5 Yahoo 2 Paul Goldschmidt
5 Fantrax 2 José Berríos
6 Fantrax 2 Max Muncy
6 Yahoo 2 Giancarlo Stanton
6 NFBC 2 Bo Bichette
6 RTS 2 Aroldis Chapman
6 ESPN 2 Marcus Semien
6 AVG 2 Yoán Moncada
6 CBS 2 Jose Abreu
6 CBS 1 Nelson Cruz
6 AVG 1 Gary Sánchez
6 ESPN 1 Marcell Ozuna
6 RTS 1 Victor Robles
6 NFBC 1 Eugenio Suárez
6 Yahoo 1 Roberto Osuna
6 Fantrax 1 Trevor Bauer
7 Fantrax 1 Mike Soroka
7 Yahoo 1 Tommy Pham
7 NFBC 1 Ramón Laureano
7 RTS 1 Brandon Woodruff
7 ESPN 1 Eddie Rosario
7 AVG 1 Jeff McNeil
7 CBS 1 Carlos Correa
7 CBS 2 Nick Castellanos
7 AVG 2 Matt Chapman
7 ESPN 2 Liam Hendriks
7 RTS 2 Sonny Gray
7 NFBC 2 Luis Robert
7 Yahoo 2 Tim Anderson
7 Fantrax 2 Frankie Montas
8 Fantrax 2 Corey Kluber
8 Yahoo 2 Josh Donaldson
8 NFBC 2 Mike Moustakas
8 RTS 2 Kenley Jansen
8 ESPN 2 Shohei Ohtani
8 AVG 2 Yasmani Grandal
8 CBS 2 Willson Contreras
8 CBS 1 Zack Wheeler
8 AVG 1 Brad Hand
8 ESPN 1 Michael Conforto
8 RTS 1 Taylor Rogers
8 NFBC 1 Andrew Benintendi
8 Yahoo 1 Edwin Diaz
8 Fantrax 1 Jesús Luzardo


Draft Picks by Round (Rounds 5 to 8)
Team Round 5 Round 6 (reversed) Round 7 Round 8 (reversed)
Fantrax 1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Trevor Bauer Mike Soroka Jesús Luzardo
Yahoo 1 Chris Paddack Roberto Ozuna Tommy Pham Edwin Diaz
NFBC 1 J.T. Realmuto Eugenio Suarez Ramon Laureano Andrew Benintendi
RTS 1 Charlie Morton Victor Robles Brandon Woodruff Taylor Rogers
ESPN 1 Josh Bell Marcell Ozuna Eddie Rosario Michael Conforto
AVG 1 DJ LeMahieu Gary Sanchez Jeff McNeil Brad Hand
CBS 1 Tyler Glasnow Nelson Cruz Carlos Correa Zack Wheeler
CBS 2 Jorge Soler Jose Abreu Nick Castellanos Willson Contreras
AVG 2 Eloy Jiménez Yoan Moncada Matt Chapman Yasmani Grandal
ESPN 2 Joey Gallo Marcus Semien Liam Hendriks Shohei Ohtani
RTS 2 Kirby Yates Aroldis Chapman Sonny Gray Kenley Jansen
NFBC 2 Yu Darvish Bo Bichette Luis Robert Mike Moustakas
Yahoo 2 Paul Goldschmidt Giancarlo Stanton Tim Anderson Josh Donaldson
Fantrax 2 José Berríos Max Muncy Frankie Montas Corey Kluber

The first difference I immediately noticed was the pitcher/hitter split between the different sites. I combined each site’s picks from the results so far.

Pitcher-Hitter Split (Rounds 1 to 8)
ADP Source Hitters Starters Relievers
NFBC 88% 13% 0%
ESPN 84% 9% 6%
Yahoo 75% 6% 19%
AVG 75% 19% 6%
CBS 69% 31% 0%
RTS 44% 31% 25%
Fantrax 38% 63% 0%
Overall 67% 25% 8%

The overall split seems perfectly fine at his point in the draft, but RTS (Real Time Sports) and Fantrax have more than 50% of their roster consisting of pitchers.  So what does it mean? I’m not sure of every possible implication but each situation could get even more extreme as the draft season starts back up. If pitching is going earlier than expected, an owner might reach for pitching thereby pushing pitchers even further up draft boards.

Another reason to understand the split is if someone is regressing their projections to the market like RotoWire’s Chris Liss discusses in these two articles. Different ADP’s will yield different valuations with a hitter-pitcher split that is not desirable by the drafter.

Another study can be done comparing a site’s ADP to how the website initially ranked their player. It’s possible the evaluation system that Fantrax uses has a 50/50 pitcher-hitter split while ESPN might be at 75/25. A weighting of the “Average Team” and the site’s rankings should show the amount of bias.

Round 5

  • ESPN is pushing up Josh Bell quite a bit with their 47 ADP and the other sites have him between 71 ADP to 94 ADP. As shown above, ESPN is a more hitter heavy so the jump may be an artifact from that push. Also, Bell was having an amazing first half (1.024 OPS) but his production dropped down to a .780 OPS in the second half. Maybe some owners blocked out the drop.
  • The other pick that was out of place was Jorge Soler who CBS has at a 63 ADP (others from 77 to 94). I can sort of see why he got pushed up but I’d go with Eugenio Suarez who has shown the same power for more than Soler’s good two months (20 HR from August to September).

Round 6

  • ESPN shows their bias towards hitters with a 59 ADP for Marcell Ozuna (91 ADP to 109 ADP for rest). I believe Ozuna’s skillset belongs in the first six rounds but since no single skill sticks out (e.g. Jorge Soler), he gets passed over. I think I’ve drafted him on every team I have this season.

Round 7

  • Fantrax’s love pitching shows up with Mike Soroka (72 ADP, 85 ADP to 104 ADP for the rest) and Frankie Montas (79 ADP, 96 ADP to 128 ADP for the rest). Both are two to three round jumps compared to the other systems. Looking over the remaining pitching, the “jump” isn’t egregious (IMO) over the remaining pitchers, they are just hoarding all the arms.
  • The NFBC takes two unestablished hitters in Luis Robert (78 ADP, 90 ADP to 111 ADP for the rest) and Ramón Laureano (75 ADP, 100 ADP to 109 ADP for the rest) way before others were considering them. I wonder if there is just a lack of name recognition between the pair from the more casual sites.

Round 8

  • Fantrax just keeps taking the pitchers by grabbing Jesus Luzardo (93 ADP, 106 ADP to 127 ADP for the others).
  • Yahoo 1 grabs its third closer in Edwin Diaz after already getting Josh Hader and Roberto Ozuna. If other owners are relying on Yahoo’s ADP, don’t be surprised at all if closers go early than expected.
  • ESPN jumps up Shohei Ohtani (83 ADP, 111 ADP to 150 ADP for the rest) way above the other systems. I can completely understand the jump in daily leagues. Also, ESPN may have had more later drafts when owners knew he’ll be able to start when the season begins.

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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4 years ago

Fantrax2 has 6 SP out of 8 picks? I don’t play in roto leagues, but this seems like a strange strategy. Have you ever seen someone pick that top-heavy in SP and win the league?

4 years ago

I disagree. With 14 teams, SP gets AWFULLY thin quickly, add in injuries to that scenario. Take a look at rosters at the end of the draft.