Any Hope for These 2020 Flops?
Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!
Victor Robles | WAS – OF – 65 wRC+
Robles had the standard “better in fantasy” season in 2019 as his 17 HR and 28 SB overshadowed his uninspired .255/.326/.419 line. His proponents (of which I am one) acknowledged the poor batted ball profile but felt that it was premature to lock the 23-year old into his 2019 levels. Oh, he wasn’t locked in… turns out he could get worse!
He added 20 pounds which just made him slower and did nothing for his power output as his Barrel and Hard-Hit rates dipped even further en route to a horrendous two months. He hit just .220/.293/.315 with 3 HR, 4 SB, and a 65 wRC+ in 189 PA. His strikeout rate jumped 5 points to 28% and he couldn’t parlay a 7-point jump in line drive rate (30%) into any results. So now what?
The flop has pushed him down to a 162 ADP with a range of 93 to 289 suggesting the market is divided. At his ADP or lower, this is a buying opportunity for me. The speed alone – even after the dip – is worth it at this point in the draft but there is also a development path where he slims back down and improves his hitting output. He was 3 HR/2 SB away from a 20/30 season in ’19 which made him a top 30 OF even with the issues so while it is important to be aware of his flaws as a hitter, big speed and a modicum of pop give him a solid floor.
Gary Sánchez | NYY – C – 69 wRC+
Catcher was so bad in 2020 that Sanchez’s .147/.253/.365 line with 10 HR and 24 RBI still ranked 3rd at the position. OK, that’s a lie, but the fact that he was 15th is still kind of impressive. It was certainly a worst-case scenario kind of outcome, but it wasn’t that shocking given the trajectory of his performance. He hit just .186 in 2018 and his strikeout rate has been inching upward for the bulk of his career.
In 2020, the strikeout rate jumped 8 points to 36% while his already bad BABIP sank to a comically bad .159, bringing the AVG to .147 in the process. His .218 ISO wasn’t awful, but it was still the worst of his career and well off his .266 career mark. Sanchez posted a 17% Barrel Rate, a top 3% mark in the league, but it feels like every non-Barrel was an out. His groundball and pull rate jumps help explain some of the disastrous BABIP, but is this power-first, AVG-challenged profile just who he is now?
In a word, yes.
It seems to be by design. Back in 2016-17 when he hit .284 over 754 PA, he had a .308 BABIP with more groundballs (44%) than flyballs (36%). Since 2018, his batted ball profile has shifted to a flyball-focused one (46%) while the groundballs are down to 37% and the BABIP has dragged to .212 in 998 PA. As a catcher – at least for now – this profile still plays. Obviously, he needs to improve on the 2020 output, but if you plan around the AVG sink then he’s a quality pick at 196 on average (11th at catcher). Steamer slots him 8th among catchers with a .222/.310/.479 line, 24 HR, and 59 RBI in 376 PA.
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The market has shifted heavily on these two 2020 flops enough that the buying opportunity is real. Neither has to find a new level or greatly change their profile to earn their current draft price while also carrying some upside if things break their way. For Robles, he could develop and find a new level while Sanchez’s upside is tied more to his BABIP.
What do you think? Are you buying back in on these two? Also, do you want to see more of these breakdowns?
Yes more breakdowns like this!!!
Yes please this is great. Tons more of this.
I agree, I like the breakdowns; but I will say this, Robles still has some interest, but Sanchez just looks broken.
I’m in on Sanchez next year, especially at that price. His plate discipline numbers don’t really indicate that high of a K%, and even some of his hard hit balls went for outs. He is fly ball heavy, but that .159 BABIP is probably about 90 points too low. Steamer’s line (~30% K%, ~.250 BABIP) seems about right, and a .222 average isn’t even that big of a sink, especially at C, league-wide AVG for catchers was .232 last year, .268 for the top 15 catchers by “Off” last year (min 100 PA).
Definitely in on Robles at adp 162,could see 265/340/440 and 25/25 more breakdowns please
While I am not necessarily “off” at that price, I think the speed loss and weight gain is more of a concern.
If you do more of these, what in the wide wide world of sports happened to Jonathan Villar, Joey Gallo, Marcus Semien and Miguel Sano? Not that I had these 4 on my fantasy team or anything…….
All will be included. Gallo almost made this a 3-pack, but I’m doing pairs unless I run into a pair that is really short. At any rate, expect more! Thank y’all for the great response!
what was Sanchez’s barrel/9? As much as his barrel% is strong, it matters more how many times in how many opportunities.
Wait what?
It’s a distinction that Eno and DVR were discussing a few weeks back. Also too the idea that Sanchez is so slow that infielders position themselves halfway to the fences when he’s up – which effectively robs him of BABIP.
I have a share in a keeper league but I am extremely nervous for next year.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast
As far as Semien, Gallo and Sano go Semien’s 2019 was an outlier. Everything came together for him in a homer happy season. His K rate dropped to a career best 13.7 pct. thus the .285 average. His ceiling would seem to be more like 2016’s 72-27-75-10. With a .250 ish average. Until Sano (38 pct. K rate the last couple seasons) and Gallo 36 pct. bring those rates drastically down, they are what they are. Light tower power with a Mendoza line batting average. I like Sano more now that Gallo isn’t hitting in Arlington Park anymore.
Sano is hard to understand. In 2019 it seemed like Nelson Cruz was having a good effect on him, trying to get him to be more selective, and in the second half his plate discipline started getting better, but then last year he went back to his evil ways. Maybe like Panda, supper steaky, and has a hard time with plate discipling (and dinner plate discipline)?
I imagine “Supper steaky” is what Panda says each night before dinner.
#Bringbacknotgraphsandsteakums
For Gary Sanchez to be of use he has to get his BABIP in the .300’s. I disregard a lot of the homer totals from 2019. Unless his BABIP is respectable I would look elsewhere at the position. If he doesn’t end up at a major ADP discount I’ll pass. I think Robles realizes he was wrongly prepared for 2020. Any hitter with 20-30 potential is always worth a shot at drafting. As long as he gets playing time he will eventually put it together. As far as hitting .270 or better for now I would say no.
If your fantasy league uses OBP instead of BA, Sanchez 10.1% BB rate means he doesn’t hurt you as much as a league using BA. He had a .310 OBP in 2019.
As a subject for discussion how about a poll of which non tendered players careers are likely over. As pandemically stricken team budgets force clubs to look at cheaper option prospects. Instead of vets who can’t make consistent enough contact. I was kind of surprised last off-season when E.,Gattis was not picked up by an AL team at least as a C/DH. I see more stories like his happening the next few months.
Yes, more breakdowns! Have Robles in a keeper league. Agree with you analysis. Plus, he’s still young.
Would love a flipped version of this on players who have the most helium from an overperformance in the shortened season and should be avoided.
Have Robles’ comically low EV rates (two years running) ever been explained? Is it really because he bunts so often?
TFW you’ve got Sanchez, Sano and Gallo on your fantasy team, I may have pushed the profile too far. Would also love to see deeper dives on Yelich, Ohtani and Lux – three other underperformers I somehow roster.
More breakdowns for sure. Grabbed Robles at pick 143 in a 50 rd Draft Champions , doesn’t seem reasonable e think a 23 yr old with a 65 FV projection cant bounce back after a bad year in 2020. Davey Johnson’s not afraid of the running game and seems like a big booster of Robles as well
I think with Robles (and Sanchez too, even though I’d say a lesser concern) is that if he continues to hit like this he will lose his playing time. Taylor going to KC gives him a tad more rope. By speed score Robles was below average for an outfielder. He struck out a lot more, walked less, and hit the ball pathetically. He only had 4 bolts…so that means he actually isn’t just sandbagging either, he just isn’t that fast anymore. Guys don’t regain speed, it doesn’t work like that. Not saying it is impossible, but there are very few exceptions where a guy is fast, goes down to average, then becomes fast again, except when there is injury. I’d rather draft Victor Reyes. Guy is 6’5″ 215 and has never not paced for 25+ sbs. He has the same amount of bolts, and a faster home to first time. Profar has a later adp, as does Andres Gimenez, Leody Taveras, Lorenzo Cain, Hampson, etc. I would take all of those guys before Robles.
I highly doubt an athlete with his pedigree lost speed at age 23. He gained weight. Nuff said. He needs to optimally train his body for explosive type movements, not bulk. I think we’ll definitely see his speed return, if nothing else.