Thrifting with Prospects

Last week I did a podcast where I went thrift shopping with The BAT X to find some bargain players with strong projections, but this isn’t that. Maybe I could’ve come up with a different name to avoid the potential confusion, though this intro should suffice. What we are doing here today is checking out some prospects who have seen their prices plummet.

Oftentimes prospects are super hyped before they even step foot on a major league field as we can dream on them and wishcast them to be the next huge breakout from day 1. That love is fleeting, though, and when a prospect struggles upon arrival the fantasy community has been known to turn their back on them swiftly and severely. It’s on to the next one for so many which creates a buying opportunity if you still believe and you usually should as these prospects are rarely given a real sample of work before sinking down draft boards.

All five of these one-time mega prospects are going pick 250 or later and have fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances under their belt. They might not hold quite as much hype as they did at their peak while prospects, but there is still a lot of upside in all five bats.

Gavin Lux – 2B – LAD | 2021 ADP: 251 | Last Top 100 Rank: #2 (2020)

Lux has just 151 PA over the last two seasons, posting just a 76 wRC+ with 5 HR and 3 SB in that time. His ADP has dropped nearly 100 picks from last year due in part to the lack of instant success and the fact that he doesn’t have a clear hold on playing time heading into 2021. The continued presence of Chris Taylor and re-signing of Justin Turner leave Lux on the bench hoping for a super utility sort of role, though manager Dave Roberts brightened the outlook in early March with comments about his playing time:

I wonder if this means the plan is leaning toward Lux primarily handling the second base job while Taylor remains in his super utility role where he has flourished the last four seasons (118 wRC+) with extended time at SS, LF, CF plus a few games at 3B. Lux was given a 70 Future Value in last year’s Top 100 and it’s almost all based on his offense (35 fielding at present with a 50 FV). This price keeps expectations at bay unlike his 165 ADP from last year. As the 24th 2B off the board, he is a MI/UT option who you could feasibly put on your reserve list early if necessary.

Nick Senzel – OF – CIN | 2021 ADP: 255 | Last Top 100 Rank: #7 (2019)

Senzel has the most experience of this quintet with 492 career PA and his 84 wRC+ is also the best of the bunch, though that speaks more to the group’s shortcomings than anything else. I am intrigued by the 14 HR and 16 SB over that time. That is nearly a 20/20 pace over a full season (600+ PA) and if he can do that while clearly not playing his best, imagine the heights he can reach if and when he’s tapping into his potential 70 hit tool, 55 power, and 55 speed (grades from his 2019 report).

Health has held Senzel back and might even bring those tools down a half grade each, but that’s still massive potential production. With a clean bill of health at the outset of spring, he is being penciled in as Cincinnati’s everyday centerfielder. We have him projected to hit 6th for the Reds on Roster Resource which makes sense, particularly against righties, though I wonder if he might lead off some against lefties with Jesse Winker moving down or even out of the lineup on those days. Senzel’s projections all have him with mid-teens HR and SB in just 128 games. He’s a breakout star in 2021 if he plays 150 games.

Brendan Rodgers – 2B – COL | 2021 ADP: 350 | Last Top 100 Rank: #31 (2020)

On the other end of Senzel is Rodgers, who has both the fewest PA (102) and lowest wRC+ (8) in this group. Like Senzel, injuries have hampered his development as he hasn’t topped 114 games played in his five full seasons since being drafted. His right shoulder has been particularly problematic and cost him a lot of time in 2019-20.

There is literally nothing to be gleaned from his MLB sample – and I would be saying the same even if he had like a 158 wRC+ instead of that horrendous mark – so I am still judging him through the prism of his prospect status with some drop-off due to injury. The trade of Nolan Arenado has cleared a full-time role for Rodgers with Ryan McMahon taking over for the superstar and Rodgers fulfilling second base. He has the skills to be an above average bat anywhere when healthy so putting him in Coors Field for half his games only adds to the potential fantasy goodness and he is priced to buy.

Carter Kieboom – 3B – WAS | 2021 ADP: 357 | Last Top 100 Rank: #21 (2020)

While Kieboom has left a lot to be desired in his 165 MLB PA (54 wRC+), his 13% BB rate has been a bright spot that speaks to his patience and knowledge of the zone. His 30% K rate obscures it a bit, but his core skills and approach suggest that he can definitely improve upon that mark. In fact, his 10% swinging strike rate is better than the 11% league average and way better than what you would expect from someone striking out that much.

I wonder if there was some passivity driving those numbers for him. I don’t doubt the walks because he had a 12% mark in the minors (1462 PA) along with a solid 20% K rate, but I think the strikeouts may have spiked so much in the majors because he just couldn’t see well enough to attack hittable pitches and thus was regularly facing deep counts that he couldn’t convert into consistent hits. His offseason LASIK surgery fueled this conclusion and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if he maintained the walks while shaving the strikeouts down to a more palatable 22-25% mark in 2021.

At his best, Kieboom has the power to fuel plenty of cheesy puns with his last name, boasting 30+ HR upside while that plate discipline should keep his OBP strong and turn into plenty of runs scored. He may nab a handful of SBs (~6-9), but speed is not a key part of his game. He will get a real shot at the everyday 3B role and while he may be stuck in the lower third of Washington’s lineup, I’m not letting that deter me from investing at this bargain bin price.

Luis Urías – 2B/3B/SS – MIL | 2021 ADP: 359 | Last Top 100 Rank: #24 (2019)

I have been an Urias fan since seeing him at the Arizona Fall League back in 2017. It wasn’t any single thing about him, just that he stood out during his plate appearances and really seemed in command of what he wanted to do. I caught him during one of the best runs of plate skills he’s likely had in his career as he walked 14 times in 70 PA with just five strikeouts. I loosely comped him to early career José Ramírez (Urias isn’t a switch-hitter so it wasn’t a 1:1 comparison), admittedly based a lot on his size, but also his approach at the dish.

Since then, Urias has had three shots in the majors, totaling 422 PA during which he has amassed a meager 76 wRC+ with 6 HR and 3 SB (in 6 tries). His 60-game run to finish 2019 was the longest uninterrupted stretch and he was able to put up a 90 wRC+ which still doesn’t jump off the page, but started to show some of his skills (he closed with a 99 wRC+ in the last 172 PA of that run). I was careful to note that the Ramirez comp was early career because of the unexpected power development by Ramirez. He sputtered a bit with a 78 wRC+ in 635 PA spread across three seasons to open his career before a breakout campaign in 2016 with a .312/.363/.462 (119 wRC+), 11 HR, and 22 SB in 618 PA.

I certainly wouldn’t project Urias for that kind of line, especially without a locked in full-time role, but he could definitely be Milwaukee’s super utilityman bouncing around the infield and accumulating 450+ PA during which he could hit .275 with 7-10 HR and 9-12 SB. He’s not a burner on the bases, but he has average speed and the Brewers generally run a lot (they didn’t in ’20, but they are 7th in SB since ’18).

How do you feel about thrift shopping prospects? I’ve been known to dive in on the hype of some guys and pay that premium, but unlike a lot of fantasy managers, I don’t cut bait if it doesn’t work immediately, especially if the price craters. There are some potential gems here and it would be foolish to cast them aside based on unimpressive-yet-incredibly-short MLB samples.

Who else fits in the thrift prospect category that you’re targeting this year?





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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rustydudemember
3 years ago

This is good analysis. Two years ago all 5 of these guys were hoarded by prospect mavens in my league. This year they’ve all been cut and are all available in the draft. It’s truly a post-hype fivesome any of which could prove out their original pedigree.