Archive for 2021

This weekend is the last big push of drafts so it’s time for one final update of my SP ranks. Lots of movement as it’s time to lock in and put together our rotations.

The blue bar represents the START of a new tier. Yes, deGrom is his own tier.

You can also get up to the minute rankings of every position on our Patreon.

UPDATE(S):

• I didn’t adjust Carrasco for his groin issue, so I put him at 102.5 right now because I’m not able to update the table right now and he’s going to slot in after Thor, but I wanted to note Carrasco’s drop. Thanks to Mike from Twitter for catching that.

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3/25/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Kirby Yates update: getting TJS (5:25)
• Eloy Jiménez may “miss significant time” w/shoulder issue (10:40; 39:52)
  • Adam Engel/Leury Garcia (41:30)
• Andrew Vaughn trending toward breaking camp (15:10)
  • Joey Votto ranking (17:10)

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One of the biggest discussions around any draft gameplan is where to get your speed. Sure, you could try to ignore them, but I never want to go into a draft punting a category and leagues with an overall component like the NFBC’s Main Event and Online Championship make it so you can’t punt a category if you want a realistic shot at the overall grand prize.

To secure high end stolen bases, you really need to map out your draft and figure out exactly where they go. This piece aims to help with that by using The BAT X’s projection system along with the NFBC ADP. Teams needs around 120 SBs to be in the upper crust (I used the top 20% of Main Event leagues from 2019) and while the number is dropping yearly, it is a safe target to set for your drafts. It’s about 9 SBs per roster spots in the standard 14-player setup (2 C, 1B/3B/CI, 2B/SS/MI, 5 OF, UT) and there are only 87 players in The BAT X projected to reach that mark.

Of course when you draft someone with 20 SBs, they bring the average needed down, but it’s still alarming that not even 100 guys hit the average we need for every spot to reach our general target. Let’s see how everything breaks down:

THE KING

Wondering why Adalberto Mondesi is going so high? Here is your reason. His 52 projected SBs are 1.5x that of the next best guy (Turner, 35) which is why so many are willing to take on his AVG downside with a top 25 pick. He crept into the first round during at least one Main Event this past week, going 14th overall.

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Pardon the delay on these as they should’ve been up over a week ago, but I’ve updated the commentary and rankings since then so here’s the latest backstop ranks fresh off the press!

Other positions:

• 1B
• 2B
• SS
• 3B
• OF

Here’s my list.

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The Pre-Season Recap Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

The focus of this podcast is on fantasy baseball strategy.

Today, we look back at the topics and highlights of our pre-season coverage. We give a preview of what you can look forward to on the show in the coming months.

Follow us on Twitter

• Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY)
• Reuven Guy (@mlbinjuryguru)
• Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod)

One of the toughest player types to analyze and decide on in fantasy drafts is the left-handed stud who can’t or hasn’t been given a real chance to hit against lefties and thus is a platoon risk. Losing that extra playing time eats into the counting categories. Every year I like to look at the projected lefty starters by division and get an idea of what these potential platoon bats might be facing. We will go division-by-division looking at the projected lefty starters in every rotation and then look at the potential left-handed platoon bats who could affected.

All info was gathered from the Roster Resource Depth Charts

AL EAST: 10

• John Means |BAL
• Keegan Akin | BAL
• Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS
• Martín Pérez | BOS
• Jordan Montgomery | NYY
• Rich Hill | TBR
• Ryan Yarbrough | TBR
• Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | TOR
• Robbie Ray | TOR
• Steven Matz | TOR

With 10 projected lefties, the AL East has the most in baseball. It is a pretty strong group with Means, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Hill, Yarbrough, and Ryu all being drafted in just about every format while Ray, Matz, and Perez have had their big seasons (especially against lefties) and Akin held them to a .576 OPS in 27 PA last year.

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The Spring Training Injury Update Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Spring Training Injury Updates

Batters

• Alex Bregman
• Xander Bogaerts
• J.T. Realmuto
• Trent Grisham
• Rhys Hoskins
• Nick Madrigal
• Brandon Belt
• Ji-Man Choi
• Adam Haseley
• Lorenzo Cain
• Kole Calhoun
• Evan Longoria
• Miguel Andujar
• Brendan Rodgers
• Jarred Kelenic

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Yesterday I ran what ended up inadvertently being an NL edition of this so I didn’t want to leave the AL-Only folks hanging. I’m giving a couple extras because so many of the AL candidates are outfielders and I didn’t want to leave the infield empty handed.

Victor Reyes | DET | OF

Reyes fans had to be bummed by the Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara signings for the Tigers as they seem to have pushed Reyes to the bench with JaCoby Jones fulfilling the other role. The speedy 4th OF has been an avenue for cheap fantasy upside in the past and Reyes could absolutely be a draft day bargain because of his uncertain role. The switch-hitting 26-year-old has a career .271 AVG in 724 PA and that’s a bit depressed by his .222 AVG debut after being a Rule 5 pickup in 2018. Since then he is hitting .293/.327/.414 with 7 HR and 17 SB in 505 PA.

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The Mock Draft Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ray Murphy

Strategy Section

• Snake Draft
  • General Strategy & Method
  • Strategy differences between shallow & deeper formats
  • Early observations of 2021 drafts

RotoBaller Mock Draft

• Setting the statge – Rules & Format
• Live Draft !!!
  • Draft Board: https://rtsports.com/rotoballer
• Draft Recap

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Edwin Ríos | LAD | 4C (1B-3B-LF-RF)

Rios would start and bat in the top half of the lineup for at least half the league right now. While he is hardly a standout defender, his flexibility would help so many clubs fit his strong bat somewhere. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are definitely not one of those teams. All four positions he can play are blocked off by All Stars, but that same flexibility paired with the overall flexibility of this entire roster will give him a chance to be LA’s first man up should virtually any injury occur. The pieces can move to make Rios the man to cover any injury except catcher.

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