Introduction

This is the third article in my series – wPDI & CSW. You can catch up by reading the first two articles – on called strikes and whiffs – found here and here.

Here is a quick recap of what we have covered so far:

In this series, we are looking at the PitcherList metric, CSW and how it relates to my plate discipline framework, wPDI. Last year’s FSWA Research Article of the Year by Alex Fast featured CSW, which is defined as:

Called Strikes + Whiffs
Total Pitches

With the Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) framework, all pitches are classified into six different outcomes as follows:

Each outcome is then assigned a weight, or an index. A% through F% are the percent of pitches thrown in each outcome. The general formula for wPDI, the Weighted Plate Discipline Index is given as:

wPDI = Index_A * A% + Index_B * B% + Index_C * C% + Index_D * D% + Index_E * E% + Index_F * F%

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This is the second article of my series – wPDI vs. CSW. For those new to either metric, I will quickly catch you up. [The opening article can be found here.]

In last year’s FSWA Research Article of the Year, CSW Rate: An Intro to an Important New Metric, Alex Fast of PitcherList examines his site’s pitching statistic, CSW. The short and simple formula for CSW is defined as follows:

Called Strikes + Whiffs
Total Pitches

Independently, I came up with the concept of Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI). With wPDI, we ask just three questions, or three binary events for every pitch:

1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
2. Was the ball swung on?
3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

Every pitch can then be classified into 6 possible pitching outcomes based on the above. The definition of each outcome is as follows:

Each outcome is then assigned a weight, or an index. The formula for wPDI, the Weighted Plate Discipline Index is then given as:

wPDI = Index_A * A% + Index_B * B% + Index_C * C% + Index_D * D% + Index_E * E% + Index_F * F%

A% through F% are the percent of pitches thrown in each outcome, and the indexes are linear multipliers to obtain the aggregated, sortable metric.

What CSW has most in common with wPDI, is that it shares the same denominator – Total Pitches. That being the case, we can attempt to use the wPDI framework to express the PitcherList metric. CSW is rooted in Baseball Savant data, while wPDI is fed by FanGraphs figures. By exploring the similarities and differences between the metrics, we can also uncover some great nuggets of understanding.

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Introduction

Last year’s FSWA Research Article of the Year, CSW Rate: An Intro to an Important New Metric, was awarded to Alex Fast of PitcherList. In his article, Alex presents the pitching statistic, CSW – a metric which was originally coined and created by Nick Pollack in 2018. As cited in the author’s article summary, CSW is more predictive than Swinging Strike Rate (SwStr%), and is more descriptive than Whiff Rate (Whiff%).

The short and simple formula for CSW is defined as follows:

Called Strikes + Whiffs
Total Pitches

I enjoy elegant formulae. Sure – wOBA, wRC+ and the like are extraordinary metrics in their own right, but they are not the simplest to jot down. CSW is plain, simple, easy to understand, and nicely predictive.

Coincidentally, and unknowing of CSW, I came up with the concept of wPDI back in 2018. I then published my first works of the plate discipline framework on April 2, 2019. The original article was entitled Introducing: Weighted Plate Discipline Index (wPDI) for Pitchers, and can be found here.

What jumped out to me immediately upon reading Fasts’s article – was that the two metrics have something very in common. CSW and wPDI both share the very same denominator – Total Pitches. The base of both of our metrics are identical. Both utilize the very same sample size, both stabilize just as quickly, and both describe baseball through the very same lens – the pitch.

As a quick reminder of how wPDI works, every pitch can be classified into 6 possible pitching outcomes.

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We have a shortened season which brings a lot of bold predictions into play. In fact, it might actually keep them from being bold which means we’ll have to amp up the boldness. I’ve got five I think are bold enough to qualify here. Let me know what you think in the comments and include your own big time bold prediction. Again, it has to be feasible but not obvious. Franmil Reyes isn’t projected to lead baseball in homers, but it’s not terribly bold to pick him, either. My boy Frankie Montas is a legitimate AL Cy Young candidate so while he’s far from the favorite, picking him wouldn’t really catch anyone’s attention.

Ramón Laureano is the #1 OF

The 25-year old power-speed stud for the A’s broke out with a 126 wRC+, .288 AVG, 24 HR, and 13 SB in 481 PA last year, good for 32nd on the Auction Calculator at the position with volume no doubt holding him back. With health, he’ll play close to all 60 games as a stud defender in center for Oakland which will give him a real chance to be tops at the position. He’s projected to finish 32nd again in the ATC projections thanks to a major dip in AVG, but I think he can deliver something special like a .320 AVG, 18 HR, and 15 SB with 37 R and 30 RBI.

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I’m going to do a standard Bold Predictions later (maybe even on Friday since I don’t think two games on Thursday will invalidate anything), but first I wanted to pick some super outliers. Projections keep us level with our expectations, but our recently added 60-game leaderboard shows us that some wild stuff can go down in a two-month run.

I focused on the skill-based fantasy categories so I’m not doing anything with wins, saves, runs, or runs batted in. There will be some crazy results with those four categories, but role and team context are so important for those that options would be too limited. For the pitching ratios, I’ll be picking starting pitchers.

25+ HR GUY | Franmil Reyes, CLE

He ripped off a 21-homer run in a 60-game stretch last year that saw him hit .273/.316/.598 in 225 PA. That’s undoubtedly a great run, but I don’t think it’s the best he can do. I feel like Reyes’ best would include an OPS north of 1.000 for sure. He almost certainly won’t play all 60 games so he’ll need to push a 1.000+ OPS to smash 25+ homers in 50-55 games.

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Opening day is finally here!

In 2020, we had two distinct draft seasons – both in February/March as well as in June/July. Some fantasy teams of mine were drafted four or five months ago, while others were assembled just this past weekend. We typically spend all winter longing for the time when our fantasy teams finally start accumulating statistics. This year, due to the tragic global pandemic of COVID-19, we had to wait even longer. We are now finally here. Tonight the standings go live!

I am well aware that there is still much suffering in the U.S. and in the rest of the world from the disease. I do not mean to make light of the world’s situation by any means in my enthusiasm for baseball’s return. At the same time, watching our nation’s pastime played day in and day out, may aid the morale of the country. Although there will be many challenges, I am hopeful that the MLB will be able to start and finish the abbreviated 2020 season without major hiccups.

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07/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host

2020 STARTING PITCHER RANKING REVIEW

• Reviewing my latest SP Rankings (here)

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We’re a week away from baseball. I unloaded the chamber and dropped 181 names here (and probably still missed SOMEONE). As with the last update, I’ll have a podcast or column out on Monday covering specifics, but for today here are the rankings with the comparison to the last list.

Let’s talk about these rankings the comments!

(Blue indicates a new tier starting)

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On recent episodes of The Sleeper & The Bust, Justin and I picked pitching and hitting league leaders for the upcoming season, highlighting a main pick and then someone to keep an eye on. I wanted to take it a step further and pick some guys who could lead the league in the 5×5 categories going pick-200 or later. Here are the pitchers and today we’ll cover hitters.

BATTING AVERAGE

Jesse Winker, CIN | Pick 345

A career .285 hitter, Winker dipped down to .269 last year when his BABIP was at a career-low .286, but he was at .332 from 2017-18 and hit a cool .299 in 471 PA. He has the talent to push a mid-.300s AVG in a short sample, especially if he’s protected a bit against lefties (.176 career AVG), though not too much or else he won’t qualify for the batting title. I don’t really understand Winker’s ADP. Even acknowledging his poor defense and inability to hit lefties, he’s better than pick 345 with a career 122 wRC+ as part of a fantastic lineup.

Also consider: Howie Kendrick (254) – Not a terribly daring secondary pick as he ripped a cool .344 last year which would’ve led the league and now the NL DH ensures a full-time role for the excellent hitter.

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07/16/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Yasiel Puig to ATL
• Jacob deGrom back MRI comes back fine
• Byron Buxton sprained foot, says he’ll be ready
• Julio Rodriguez hairline fracture in wrist
• Nick Solak holding down LF w/Calhoun out (Grade 1 hip flexor strain)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has edge for 3B role

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