Finding the Outliers
I’m going to do a standard Bold Predictions later (maybe even on Friday since I don’t think two games on Thursday will invalidate anything), but first I wanted to pick some super outliers. Projections keep us level with our expectations, but our recently added 60-game leaderboard shows us that some wild stuff can go down in a two-month run.
I focused on the skill-based fantasy categories so I’m not doing anything with wins, saves, runs, or runs batted in. There will be some crazy results with those four categories, but role and team context are so important for those that options would be too limited. For the pitching ratios, I’ll be picking starting pitchers.
25+ HR GUY | Franmil Reyes, CLE
He ripped off a 21-homer run in a 60-game stretch last year that saw him hit .273/.316/.598 in 225 PA. That’s undoubtedly a great run, but I don’t think it’s the best he can do. I feel like Reyes’ best would include an OPS north of 1.000 for sure. He almost certainly won’t play all 60 games so he’ll need to push a 1.000+ OPS to smash 25+ homers in 50-55 games.
20+ SB GUY | Jon Berti, MIA
I didn’t want to go too obvious and pick Trea Turner or Adalberto Mondesi, so I went with Berti. He’s already slated to play 5-6 games a week heading to the season but that means if the starter falters at one of many positions, he could be in the lineup every day. He swiped 16 in the final 49 games (45 starts) of last year so he could definitely chase down 20 if they play damn near every day and turn him loose.
.380+ AVG | Justin Turner, LAD
I feel like this season sets up perfectly for Turner as he seems to have an elite 60-or-so game run every year. Health has been about the only thing holding him back since he became a late-20s breakout in 2014, topping 135 games just once. In that time, his 141 wRC+ ranks 9th among hitters with at least 2800 PA. He has just one season below .290 AVG during this run (.275 in ’16) and hit a cool .340 in ’14. There are a handful of guys who could legitimately chase a .400 AVG and Turner is one of them. I’ll give him a .392 mark in 54 games.
120+ K | Mike Clevinger, CLE
There are a ton of candidates here and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if multiple guys eclipsed 120 strikeouts, but I’ll take ClevDog as my top guy. He put up a 34% strikeout rate last year including a 12-start run when he fanned 100 batters from July 27th to September 24th. It’ll probably take a 40%+ strikeout rate to reach 120 strikeouts which Clevinger can absolutely pull off that in weak central mega-division.
SUB-1.50 ERA | Clayton Kershaw, LAD
I really wanted to pick one of my breakout arms like Frankie Montas or Aaron Civale or one of the other several guys I’m betting on taking a big step forward this season, but I decided to go with the best pitcher of this generation. It’s not super daring, but it’s also not the super obvious Scherzer or deGrom type pick. Kershaw has seen his ERA rise each of the last three years, though the highest of those was still a quality 3.03. Perhaps a bit of wishful thinking, but I think the 60-game season will give us one last uber-Kershaw season and see him drop a filthy 1.44 ERA on the league.
Bonus Pick of SUB-1.00 ERA Reliever: Nick Burdi, PIT – Monster skills and finally healthy.
SUB-1.00 WHIP | José Berríos, MIN
He has improved his walk rate over the last three seasons with a career-best 6% last year and so hit suppression will be the key here. He had a .220 AVG against in 2018 which was his career best and helped him to a 1.14 WHIP. He’ll need to contend for the top spot in the league in AVG against to achieve this mark. We’ve seen some really solid seasons out of Berrios over the last three years, but I don’t think we’ve seen his absolute best. The division will definitely help and the defense will have to be airtight behind him if he’s going to push down toward .200 or lower for his AVG against.
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OK, you’ve seen mine, now let’s see your outlier picks. You can pick all, a few, or just one of the categories. Just put your picks in the comments. If you want to go obvious, that’s fine because let’s be honest, anybody achieving these numbers would be incredible even if it’s the superstar we expect to do amazing things.
Welp, so much for Kershaw 🙁
not sure I agree that the AL Central is still weak, at least for hitting. Three teams have strong lineups; the Tigers added some power with Schoop/Cron and the Royals got Salvy back, who hasn’t lost a beat with his power.
It’s unquestionably the weakest division of the 3. DET, KC, and PIT are rollovers. Schoop and Cron are an improvement, but they don’t make Detroit scary in the least and I’m wholly unmoved by Perez re-joining KC in terms of fearing that lineup. Not only that, but all three play in neutral/pitcher-friendly ballparks.
Each league has two rollovers. White Sox’s growth takes the Central out from being the worst in the AL. (why did you include PIT, they’re in the NL?)
Because each team is playing the AL & NL iterations of their division so AL Central teams get Pirates interleague. White Sox haven’t grown yet. They’re on the rise and I do like them, but they aren’t proven and the AL Central is still easily the worst division even w/two strong clubs at the tops in MIN & CLE
Kris David pops 24 hr. Hey, he hit 10 in April last year before injury, and hit 27 in his final 64 games of 2018.
I can definitely see it! Love him as a pick to rebound.
I’d love to see him rebound too, but he looks lost. He won’t be DH by end of year, mark my words
Heaney would be my sleeper pick for K’s
Carrasco, I think. High risk and maybe he doesn’t get the innings of the others, but his K rate should be elite.
It was almost 11 per 9 last year and that was with Leukemia.
For SBs, I predict that you will see a couple of rabbits get 20+, with the potential to pick up 10 or more in extra innings games – guys like B Hamilton, M Straw – and maybe a sneaky favorite, Terrence Gore. He’ll probably never start, but could pinch run like crazy on a deep team like the Dodgers. He had 13 in 58 PA last year, and there’s an argument he could wind up with more SBs than ABs this season.
I briefly considered Gore. He’s definitely a fun one bc I totally agree re: SB v. PA. Almost exclusively as a pinch-runner, he could feasibly steal double-digits. Throw in a week or two of spot starts bc of injuries or something and all of sudden, he’s eyeing 20+
120+ K – assuming you leave out the obvious guys (Cole, Scherzer), it’s gotta be Robbie Ray. I feel like he has been building to another level the last 3 years. The only 3 guys with 12+ K/9 in each of the last 3 years (min 120 IP since Ray missed some time in 2018) are Ray, Scherzer and Sale.
(Actually the whole list of starters from 2017-2019 at 12+ is very short – 3 for Ray, Sale and Scherzer, 2 for Verlander and Cole, and then ClevDog last year. That’s it.)
Love the pick of the Franimal. If you look at expected outcomes on batted balls, he was also the unluckiest hitter in the entire MLB last year too. And the eye test backs it up, I watched all his at bats. Literally all last year, and it was fly ball on warning track, liner right at the rf’er, etc. I think he could have a sneaky batting average as too. A lot of people pencil him in for .240-250, but he could be up in the .270+ range IMO
While he may not lead the league, I predict a TOR OFer finishes in the top 5 in HRs. 25+ might be a stretch, but when you consider the HR binges guys like Teoscar and Grichuk have had in the past, combined with playing half their games in BALT (if it comes to pass), it’s not out of the realm.
With Gurriel a bit behind, both can fall into regular playing time, plus if they have to share with Baltimore, they may have to play their home games during those hot mid-Atlantic afternoons where the ball will be flying out.
Of the two, I’ll choose Teoscar as he’s been dying to get some full time run…
I don’t mind it. I do not think that Baltimore will happen though, no real benefit for Maryland to do that, I’d venture it is almost a certainty they play all their games on the road (half as home team), which makes me bring their hitters way down. The Pennsylvania precedent will certainly be followed by even more liberal states.
I agree that your scenario is more likely than the Baltimore option.
If yours is correct, will Toronto be allowed to place their own cardboard cutouts behind home plate?
more importantly, will they be allowed to put cardboard cutouts in centerfield to help tip pitches?
120+ K’s: Corbin Burnes
20+ steals: Kyle Tucker. Bold, but he has opportunities to play out of the gate and will seize them until Baker cannot defeat himself any longer.
25+ HR’s: Austin Riley finds another hot streak, but this one lasts.
Sub-1.00 WHIP: Zac Gallen. Taking the popular breakout pick a couple more steps farther.
Sub-1.50 ERA: Adrian Houser. A weak contact inducer facing the Centrals
.380+ AVG: Luis Arraez