The newfound depth at shortstop and third base has sort of covered the fact that second base comes up a little light. Consider a dual-eligible player like Gleyber Torres. He ranks 5th at 2B on Razzball’s Player Rater, but sit 9th at SS. There are a host of dual- or even triple-eligible guys at the position, but they are often best deployed here at the keystone.

A wave of rookies who have burst onto the scene could give the position a modicum of depth for 2020, but that’s not a guarantee so we look at the position with some trepidation at this juncture. The top still has some major firepower so don’t be afraid to invest early, but then we get some big globs of sameness.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• C
• 1B

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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9/18/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Blake Snell sharp in return (5:50)
• Luis Severino even sharper in return (7:55)
• Cavan Biggio cycle (9:15)
  • Garrett Hampson talk (14:10)
• Chris Paddack done (17:42)
• David Price done for the year (22:00)
• Caleb Smith talk (23:52)
• Lucas Giolito done for the year (26:40)

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As Justin’s six Too Early Mock drafts wind down, we have some excellent ADP data to look digest and it’s been brilliantly put together by the wonderful Smada. It will obviously morph over the next 6+ months with risers and fallers at every level.

Today I’m identifying 20 players going pick-200 or later that I like for next year and while some may ascend into the top 200, it’s unlikely that any will become cost prohibitive by draft season. The league setup was 15-team with the standard NFBC lineup except for just one catcher instead of two: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UT, Px9.

Julio Urías, SP ARI | ADP 208 – High 171 – Low 272

The Dodgers will be using Urias as a starter next year and while his workload will no doubt be managed, I like him in this pick range. He will likely get somewhere around 120-140 innings which is enough to be a high impact arm. Look at what Chris Paddack was able to do with 135.7 innings. The Padres got him to the finish line and he’s been a Top 30 SP according to the Razzball Player Rater. Urias could definitely match or best the 3.38 ERA/1.00 WHIP with 144 Ks we’ve seen from Paddack this year.

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9/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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TOO EARLY MOCK SP ANALYSIS

• First 10 Rounds
• Favorites 150-200
• Favorites 200+
• Smada’s Excellent ADP Board

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 94 minutes of joyous analysis.

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First base looked a bit thin during draft season and despite the emergence of some guys, I don’t think much changed. There is a thick middle tier that gives a perception of depth, but 1B is often deep in premium talent so this is definitely a new landscape. If you don’t one of the top 10 or so, you’re probably better off waiting as the difference between the 11th and 20th guy isn’t that stark.

One factor regarding this relative dearth of elites is that some multi-positional guys that would’ve never been considered at 1B with positions like 2B, 3B, or OF on their card are now looking better at this position. Except catcher. I’m still not even ranking guys like Yasmani Grandal at 1B because it just doesn’t make any sense to use him anywhere but C.

Let’s get into the list. I went 30 deep and then listed a bunch of honorable mentions. Let me know if I forgot anyone or if you think someone belongs much higher or much lower than where I have them right now.

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9/11/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SECOND HALF STANDOUTS

• Kyle Seager
• Starlin Castro
• Jurickson Profar
• A.J. Pollock

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Introduction

Does it make a difference as to a fantasy baseball team’s starting draft position? Are all draft slots created equally? Is it better to be at the ends (wheel/turn), or rather, is it more opportune to make one’s selections from the middle of the order?

To try and help us answer these questions, let’s look at what happened in 2019. Now, of course, the current season isn’t over just yet – there are still a few more weeks of baseball. However, now in mid-September, it is sufficiently late in the season for us to analyze how the draft positions played out over the course of 2019.

Sources Used

For this study, we will observe the standings for three different league types:

• TGFBI – 21 Leagues
• NFBC Main Event – 38 Leagues
• NFBC Draft Champions – 230 Leagues

TGBFI (The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational) is our own Justin Mason’s creation. It is a compilation of 315 fantasy baseball experts, divided into 21 NFBC-Style divisions. The 315 experts are also pitted against each other in a large overall competition. [I am the host of the TGFBI Beat the Shift Podcast, which can be found right here.]

The NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) Main Event is a set of high money entry leagues, with large financial payouts for the victors. As with TGFBI, the teams are all additionally entered into an overall contest with even larger payouts for the top finishers.

The NFBC Draft Champion leagues are money league contests as well (although their cost and payouts are far less than that of the main event leagues). As I will further describe below, they are 50-round slow drafts.

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It was a weird year at catcher. We came in acknowledging the incredible lack of depth with 4-5 reliable options and then just an unmitigated mess. It’s turned out to be rather deep, just with a group we could’ve never predicted. Those top 4 (and 5 if you include Ramos) have delivered and will remain atop the ranks heading into the 2020, but it again becomes a wide open pool ripe for debates after that.

Other 2020 Rankings:

• SP
• 1B

Let me know what you think in the comments.

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So, this why my coach told me to run out groundballs.

The English on this ball was CRAZY. 😱 pic.twitter.com/D8OwtiD1sj

— MLB (@MLB) September 4, 2019

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8/28/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NEWS

• Jose Ramirez hamate bone (3:40)

2019 SURPRISING BREAKOUTS IN 2020

• Carlos Santana (7:15)
• Yordan Alvarez (14:42)
• Ketel Marte (21:25)

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