Prospect season is around the corner, and while various rankings, reports, and even trades will continue to influence the ebb and flow of prospect opinions, it’s helpful to lay the groundwork for establishing this year’s fantasy prospect values as early as possible.  The list below represents a very early look at the top 101 prospects in the game for fantasy leagues tailored specifically towards sabermetric scoring (where OPS, FIP, and wOBA are better indicators than AVG, ERA, and SB). For example, this list could be a resource for evaluating the value of prospects in Ottoneu points leagues (a separate post will follow ranking the top 101 prospects for traditional rotisserie leagues).

Years ago I introduced the Scorecard system, my custom prospect ranking process, and I’ve continued to use this method for scoring and ranking this crop of 2020 prospects.  In ranking these prospects I take into account the following factors:

Scouting

“Scouting” is everything that goes into evaluating the true talent of an MLB prospect.  Age, ability, stats, rankings, “makeup”, and scouting reports all play a role here.  It’s the input of information that causes you to ask about the player’s ceiling, their floor, and what might be realistic in between.  What are the risks, and how serious are they? Is this prospect regarded more for their defensive talents than offensive? What MLB players might they compare to? What is their future value expectation and how likely are they to reach it?

Royce Lewis scouts like a dream player (and #1 draft selection), but scouting alone hasn’t yet materialized into an elite on-field player, so there are other elements to consider when ranking him among the other top prospects in the game in this context.

Scoring

“Scoring” is honestly assessing whether the prospect’s skills and talents effectively translate to the specific scoring format of your fantasy league.  It seems obvious, but I continually see fantasy owners fail to make this connection in the way they draft and value their prospects each season.  While Drew Waters might be an exciting buy in a 5 x 5 auction, his value needs to be reassessed in the context of OPS leagues, for example.  In order to be more successful in building our dynasty rosters, we need to always project value within the context of our specific league, which is what this rating is designed to consider.

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I compared the average draft position data of the first 10 NFBC Draft Champions leagues with the 2020 Steamer Projections to identify 10 of the best values going in the top 150. I just took their auction calculator rank using Steamer and compared it against their ADP. Here’s what I found (sorted by ADP – Auction Calc. difference, highest to lowest):

Dinelson Lamet | SP – Auction Calculator Rank: 52, ADP: 128

He feels like a winter riser. He was getting hyped at the Baseball HQ event in Arizona for his strikeout prowess after posting a 34% mark in his 73 IP this year. While he won’t reach as high as this Auction Calculator Rank, I think he’ll beat this current ADP, especially in the NFBC realm where pitching is always pushed up.

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A few weeks back, I posted that the 2020 edition of The Process was available in e-book form for downloading. All the loops have been jumped and now all it is available in paperback form at Amazon.

Here are some of the additions:

• A comparison to see if it’s more efficient to buy closers versus starters in the draft or wait for free agency for each one.

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We’re headed back to the National League for the upstart Reds who have a strong rotation and some intriguing bats setting them up as a 2020 fringe contender with a few key offseason moves.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros
• Baltimore Orioles

3 QUESTIONS

Is Joey Votto done as a premier hitter?

After a nine-year run which saw Votto hit .315/.436/.544 with 30 HR, 95 RBI, 102 R, and 9 SB per 162 games, he fallen on hard times the last two years with just a .272/.387/.415 line and 16 HR, 65 RBI, 83 R, and 4 SB per 162. His 2018 and 2019 aren’t that far off outside of his walk rate so while a lot attention is being paid to his 2019, this is now two severely non-Vottoan years.

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The results from the Pitcher List Experts Mocks are in, and the consensus is that Walker Buehler will be a top five starting pitcher in 2020. He was the fifth starter taken in two of the three leagues and was the third starter taken in the third league. This coincides with the results of the 2 Early Mocks, in which Buehler emerged with the fifth-highest ADP among starting pitchers.

I don’t get it.
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From the World Series runner up to second-worst record in baseball, let’s take a closer look at the rebuilding O’s.

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners
• Houston Astros

3 QUESTIONS

Will Jonathan Villar be on the team to start the season?

The concern among the fantasy community is that Villar might be traded in the offseason to a team where a) he wouldn’t have a locked in full-time gig and b) they don’t run as much, thus robbing some of his fantasy value. The 29-year old switch-hitter has enjoyed a nice rebirth with the Orioles, posting a nice 107 wRC+ over 950 PA with a very fantasy-relevant 61 SBs.

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Everyone likes finding the next big thing in fantasy baseball and cashing in, but sometimes the best pickup is buying back in on a player coming off a down season in hopes of a return to previously established levels of production or reach new heights hinted at by their prospect status and minor league production. Here is a group of players I’m buying late:

1B: Luke Voit | 17th at position, 169th pick

Voit only played 47 games in 2018, but he posted a nice 1.069 OPS with 15 HR and 36 RBI across 161 PA. His move to New York seemed to spur a breakthrough that many were hoping he could build upon in 2019. A sports hernia made that tough, though, costing him time in both July and August and likely playing a role in his .673 OPS during September. Before the injury it was looking like he was going to turn his 2018 into a full-scale breakout as he hit .280/.393/.509 with 17 HR through June (78 games). Overall, he still posted a solid 126 wRC+. Assuming he recovers in the offseason, he should get back on track in 2020 and I could see a .270 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 R.

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For each of the previous installments of this series, where I have compared the 2019 seasons of two players on different trajectories who achieved similar Roto value, I have run a poll. The assumption behind the polls is that the two players could be similarly valued for 2020. I’ve used the polls to get a pulse on which player would be viewed as the better fantasy performer — the one on the upswing or the one who just had a “down” year?

In comparing Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez, whose 5×5 Roto values were separated by one-tenth of a dollar, there is no mystery as to which player will be targeted earlier on draft day. In the #2EarlyMocks, Martinez ranked seventh among outfielders with an 18.6 ADP, while Soler ranked 30th with a 97.3 ADP. In the recently-completed Pitcher List Experts Mock that I participated in, Martinez was the 20th player chosen overall, and Soler stayed on the board until the 73rd pick. Soler may have slightly outearned Martinez this year, but the Red Sox outfielder/DH has had success for so much longer that it is not at all surprising that fantasy owners would not view them as equivalent.
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11/19/19

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NOTES ON TOP 50s

• Brandon Woodruff: excellent fastball, trusted as a workhorse before injury, 3.35 career FIP
• Max Fried: added slider, improved velo and control, GB lean
• Zac Gallen: 4-pitch mix, big swing-and-miss, career-long HR suppression
• Frankie Montas: premium velo, paired 2015-17 K% w/2018 BB%, new splitter, HR suppression
• Jesus Luzardo: elite prospect w/great K upside, strong 3-pitch mix, could face IP limitation

THE NEXT BIG PITCHER

• Joe Musgrove (5:00)
• Dylan Cease (6:25)
• Michael Kopech (12:24)
• Jose Urquidy (16:30)
• Griffin Canning (20:28)
• Sandy Alcantara (23:12)

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The Braves continued the upgrading of their bullpen, which they began at this year’s trade deadline, by signing Will Smith on Thursday. In inking the lefty to a three-year, $40 million deal with a fourth-year team option, they added a reliever who struck out 96 batters over 65.1 innings and recorded 34 saves for the Giants in 2019. Smith’s ex-teammate (and now new teammate), Mark Melancon, was effective as the Braves’ closer down the stretch this season, but I was probably not alone in assuming that Smith would go into spring training as the team’s new closer.
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